Complex Adaptive Systems Complex Adaptive Systems

William W. SchoeningWilliam W. SchoeningBoeingBoeing

william.w.schoening@boeing.comwilliam.w.schoening@boeing.com

schoening@incose.org schoening@incose.org

William W. SchoeningWilliam W. SchoeningBoeingBoeing

william.w.schoening@boeing.comwilliam.w.schoening@boeing.com

schoening@incose.org schoening@incose.org

What Is a Complex Adaptive Systems?What Is a Complex Adaptive Systems?

• Collection of independent systems• Developers can make unilateral decisions about their

own systems• Emergent behavior of the whole is the result of

collaboration – explicit & implicit• Behavior adapts to the evolving context• Examples

– Internet

– Highway transportation

– Air transportation

– FCS

– Boeing

• Collection of independent systems• Developers can make unilateral decisions about their

own systems• Emergent behavior of the whole is the result of

collaboration – explicit & implicit• Behavior adapts to the evolving context• Examples

– Internet

– Highway transportation

– Air transportation

– FCS

– Boeing

CAS Seldom Built From ScratchCAS Seldom Built From Scratch

• Exceptions– Internet– FCS

• More common– Road and air transportation– Companies– Governments

• Exceptions evolve toward less central control over time

• Exceptions– Internet– FCS

• More common– Road and air transportation– Companies– Governments

• Exceptions evolve toward less central control over time

Business System Transformation Eastman Kodak Consumer Segment

Business System Transformation Eastman Kodak Consumer Segment

Use with the permission of and thanks to James C. Stoffel, Sr. VP Eastman Kodak

Eastm an Kodak Consum er Segm entPicture Life Cycle – Traditional TechnologiesPicture Life Cycle for Traditional

Technologies

New Picture Life Cycle – Digital/Hybrid

Hybrid

NETNETNETDigital

Picture Life Cycle for Digital/Hybrid

Complex collaborative systems are the way of life in the commercial world

Why Are CASs of Interest?Why Are CASs of Interest?

• All of our systems reside in CASs• Can ignore (at own risk) important

features so long as pace of change is less than response time

• NCO and need for more rapid response has made better understand of CASs essential for success

• All of our systems reside in CASs• Can ignore (at own risk) important

features so long as pace of change is less than response time

• NCO and need for more rapid response has made better understand of CASs essential for success

What Makes CASs Difficult?What Makes CASs Difficult?

• Lack of centralized authority over development and evolution

• Ambiguous and ever changing objectives

• Continuing adaptation to external world• Far more human involvement with

potentially conflicting goals• Systems can be part of multiple CASs• Even CASs developed under authority

evolve in collaborations

• Lack of centralized authority over development and evolution

• Ambiguous and ever changing objectives

• Continuing adaptation to external world• Far more human involvement with

potentially conflicting goals• Systems can be part of multiple CASs• Even CASs developed under authority

evolve in collaborations

Nontraditional ApproachesNontraditional Approaches

• Adaptation of concepts from– Chaos theory– Ecology– Biology– Sociology– Psychology– Economics– Business– Politics

• Modifications to sacred cows of systems engineering

• Adaptation of concepts from– Chaos theory– Ecology– Biology– Sociology– Psychology– Economics– Business– Politics

• Modifications to sacred cows of systems engineering

Chaos TheoryChaos Theory

• Not about being chaotic• Focus

– Nonlinear behavior– Starting conditions

• Suspect focus is misguided– Well understood non-linear behavior is not

a problem– Nonstandard (unexpected) behavior is a

problem

• Not about being chaotic• Focus

– Nonlinear behavior– Starting conditions

• Suspect focus is misguided– Well understood non-linear behavior is not

a problem– Nonstandard (unexpected) behavior is a

problem

More on NontraditionalMore on Nontraditional

• Diversity in ecosystems can mitigate viruses

• Human behavior is psychological and sociological

• Decisions by owners of component systems are often based on business decisions

• CAS adaptations are often political

• Diversity in ecosystems can mitigate viruses

• Human behavior is psychological and sociological

• Decisions by owners of component systems are often based on business decisions

• CAS adaptations are often political

Challenging the Sacred CowsChallenging the Sacred Cows

• Boundaries are in constant flux around the CAS and within the CAS

• Top-down is insufficient– Bottoms-up & middle-out

• Verification of CAS-level requirements of little value– What are requirements for an adaptive complex system?

– Can you pin down the CAS well enough to perform verification?

– Is validation replacing verification at the CAS level?

• Satisfying requirements ahead of schedule and below cost may not be enough for success

• Can contractors unilaterally implement features based on own understanding of the higher level CAS?

• Boundaries are in constant flux around the CAS and within the CAS

• Top-down is insufficient– Bottoms-up & middle-out

• Verification of CAS-level requirements of little value– What are requirements for an adaptive complex system?

– Can you pin down the CAS well enough to perform verification?

– Is validation replacing verification at the CAS level?

• Satisfying requirements ahead of schedule and below cost may not be enough for success

• Can contractors unilaterally implement features based on own understanding of the higher level CAS?

Some Major QuestionsSome Major Questions

• What are the keystone systems and behaviors?

• Given new operating conditions, how might a CAS adapt?

• What kinds of behavior might we expect from component systems pushed into nonstandard behavior?

• How will a CAS adapt and behave in nonstandard operating conditions?

• How should we organize?• Are our processes adequate?

• What are the keystone systems and behaviors?

• Given new operating conditions, how might a CAS adapt?

• What kinds of behavior might we expect from component systems pushed into nonstandard behavior?

• How will a CAS adapt and behave in nonstandard operating conditions?

• How should we organize?• Are our processes adequate?

Some ApproachesSome Approaches

• Instead for humans to pick up what machines cannot do, balance human and machine functionality

• Architect in adaptability, not just design margin

• Expend more effort to understand possible futures states for CAS

• Better simulations of CAS

• Instead for humans to pick up what machines cannot do, balance human and machine functionality

• Architect in adaptability, not just design margin

• Expend more effort to understand possible futures states for CAS

• Better simulations of CAS