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Comparative Analysis of UAE and Germanys Economy Vivek Vijaykumar Hinduja, 4886112

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 ORIGIN

This report is submitted to Dr. Asima Shirazi, lecturer of TBS905 at the University of Wollongong in Dubai on 3rd December, 2014. The report conducts a comparative analysis between the economies of UAE and Germany.

1.2 OBJECTIVE

The objective of this project is to compare the economic characteristics of the United Arab Emirates and Germany. This is done to analyze how the two economies have been performing, to ascertain their current position and give an opinion on the future outlook.

1.3 DATA

The data has been taken from the WDI (World Bank) database for the variables selected to compare the two economies. Data has been considered for a period of ten years ranging from 2002 to 2012. This is because of the limitation of arriving at accurate data for the year 2013 for all variables selected.

2 ECONOMY PROFILES

2.1 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE)

The economy of United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the second largest and most diversified in the Middle East. It is part of the Gulf Co-operation Council, an economic alliance of six other countries. Despite following Sharia law, UAE is quite liberal and tolerant towards other religions and beliefs, which is apparent when you realize that the expatriates make up more than three fourth of the population. The economy is not anymore totally dependent on Oil except to a certain extent in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. The per capita GDP is in line with western developed nations as UAE has acquired significant wealth in recent years. The Government has made significant investments in infrastructure and tourism thereby leading to job creation. The Free Trade Zones in the UAE have attracted investors because of zero taxation and 100 percent foreign ownership. UAE too has faced its part of the crisis, especially in Dubai, which is exposed heavily to the real estate market. Dubai is the major contributor to the countrys economy after Abu Dhabi. The emirate of Dubai has become a major center for tourism, transportation, commerce and is also emerging as the financial center in the Middle East. (CIA World Fact Book, 2014) (Theodora)

The emirates of Dubai and Abu Dhabi have formulated their strategic plans to focus on diversification namely Dubais Strategic Plan 2015 and Abu Dhabis Economic Vision 2030. UAE at the Federal level is strongly following its 2021 Vision, which focuses on innovation, science, technology and research to make the economy highly competitive. (UAE Interact)

2.2 GERMANY

Germany is the most industrialized nation in Europe today. Its excellent infrastructure, industries and innovation in technology make it one of the largest exporters in the world. Its economic policies are centered on the idea of social market economy. Germany is famous for its automobiles and engineering products. Heavy investments in Research and Development (R&D) and service oriented manufacturing contributes to the overall competitiveness of Germany. Its central location in Europe make it a transport hub. Germany is also blessed with large reserves of natural resources like lignite, copper and potash salt. The country is moving towards renewable energy after deciding to shut down its nuclear reactors by 2022. In the last couple of years, higher tax revenues and drastic reductions in spending have helped reduce budget deficits significantly. (CIA World Fact Book, 2014) (Theodora)

3 VARIABLES

3.1 GDP GROWTH (Annual %)

The GDP is the most important indicator to determine the strength of an economy. It is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced in an economy during a given period of time. It is usually calculated annually. It is commonly known as GDP = C + I + G + (X-M). Here, C refers to consumption expenditure, I refers to the domestic business spending and investments, G refers to the Government spending and investments and (X-M) refers to the net exports, which is the difference between total exports and total imports. (Investopedia)

Data Source : World Bank

United Arab Emirates has witnessed a positive growth rate, though not consistent. The GDP fell drastically in the year 2007 owing to the start of the global financial crisis. The real estate bubble in 2008 brought down the GDP even more. In 2009, the fall in price of oil made it worse. Economic policies were formulated to revive the economy and increase Government investments. The GDP grew at 1.67% in 2010 and increased steadily to 4.36% in 2012. This is mainly because of the growth in non-oil sectors. The UAE economy is expected to grow at 4.8% in 2014. (Khaleej Times, 2014)

Germanys GDP picked up in the year 2003 and grew steadily till 2005. It did well in 2006 with a growth of 3.7% . Germany was also impacted by the financial crisis starting in 2007-08. The GDP witnessed a de-growth of 5.14% in 2009. It bounced back with a GDP growth of 4.01 % in 2010 but has again not been doing well since, compared to the UAE. The economy grew at 0.68% in 2012. It is mainly because of the crisis in the Eurozone which seems to have stabilized now. It is said that Germany benefitted from the Euro crisis but it is still a debatable topic. The economy is expected to grow at 1.2% in 2014. (Quartz) (Bloomberg, 2014)

3.2 GDP PER CAPITA (CURRENT US$)

GDP per capita is calculated by dividing the GDP of an economy by its midyear population. It is represented in current US Dollars. (World Bank)

Data Source : World Bank

The GDP per capita in the UAE was comparatively higher than Germany in the pre-crisis period. It was at $34062 in 2002 and steadily increased to $46403 in 2008 as a result of the growing economy. It fell to $33013 in 2009 as a result of the crisis affecting UAE in a big way. It has steadily increased since and was at $ 41692 in 2012. The UAE aims to increase this significantly and be in the top 10 countries in the world with highest per capita GDP. (Gulf News, 2014)

However, when we look at the graph for Germany, the GDP per capita has increased from $24326 in 2002 to $42598 in 2012. There was a dip in 2009 as a result of the crisis. The highest level was seen at $44355 in 2011. Despite its paltry growth in population, Germanys Per Capita GDP has not risen over the years and the falling birth rate is a cause of concern. Post the 2007 Crisis, Germany has slipped several places in Per Capita GDP rankings in the Eurozone. Prior to the financial crisis, it ranked Second behind Luxembourg. This raises a doubt to the widely accepted idea that Germany profited the most from the Euro crisis. (The Euro Trap : On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets and Beliefs by Hans-Werner Sinn, 2014)

3.3 EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES (% OF GDP)

This variable represents the total value of all exports of goods and services to the rest of the world. It is represented as a percentage of the GDP of the economy.(World Bank)

Data Source : World Bank

The exports of goods and services for the United Arab Emirates has been increasing at a very sturdy rate since 2002. It jumped from 78.37% in 2010 to 90.31% in 2011 and in 2012, it was at 95.15% of the GDP. This can be attributed to the increasing focus on manufacturing and the need to diversify the economy as only the emirate of Abu Dhabi has significant oil reserves. The robust infrastructure and logistics facilities along with increasing demand from Asia will contribute to increasing exports. (UAE Interact) (Khaleej Times, 2014)

However, exports of goods and services for Germany is lower compared to the UAE. But we also need to factor in the size of the economy as the data represents the exports as a percentage of the GDP. Germany is a much bigger economy than UAE. Exports have been growing for Germany, except for a dip in 2009 where it fell to 42.46% from 48.15% in 2008. It has picked up since and the highest being at 51.79% in 2012. Though the western worlds demand has slowed down, emerging economies like China and India are growing rapidly. The more affluent in these economies have shown increased demand for luxury products like the cars from Mercedes, BMW or Audi for example. Thus, the emerging economies, are helping compensate the drop in German exports to developed countries like USA. (The New York Times, 2014)

3.4 TOTAL POPULATION

Population refers to the total number of residents in a country. It does not take legal status or citizenship into consideration. (World Bank)

Data Source : World Bank

The population of UAE is much lower compared to Germany, mainly because of its geographic size. The total population in 2002 was 3.22 million and has grown to 9.20 million in 2012. This significant increase is primarily due to immigration, excellent infrastructure, zero taxation and quality of life. In fact, recently, Dubai (part of UAE) was awarded The Best City to Work and Live in. This was judged on the basis of economic dynamism, cost of living and overall attractiveness. (Gulf News, 2014)

In Germany, the population was at 82.48 million in 2002 and over a period of ten years, has fallen to 80.42 million in 2012. The workforce has been ageing and this has become a significant issue. It is surprising to note that assembly lines in factories are being re-designed to minimize work load that includes bending and lifting. The Government has been increasing spending on family subsidies but the desired results have not been achieved. Having more aged people is not good for the economy in the long run. (Bloomberg, 2012) (Daily Mail, 2013)

3.5 UNEMPLOYMENT ( Percentage of Total Labor Force )

Unemployment level refers to the percentage of workforce who are seeking jobs but have no avenues for jobs. (World Bank)

Data Source : World Bank

Unemployment levels for the UAE witnessed a stable increase till the year 2008 which was the highest at about 4%. It has been reducing since 2011 with an unemployment rate of 3.79% in 2012. The Emiratisation rule has worked to an extent but has not made major impact as Emiratis prefer Government jobs than working in the private sector, mainly due to the benefits provided by the Government. But the trend is changing and Emiratisation is increasing particularly in the banking sector.(The National, 2013) (The National, 2014)

Germany saw unemployment rates increasing significantly till 2005 at 11.10% which is pretty high. However the situation has become better from there on, reducing constantly and it stands at 5.40% in 2012. During the crisis period in 2008-09, the Government had provided firms with extra funds to keep workers employed, at least part-time. The workers stayed on and improved on their skills and this policy seems to have worked to bring down the unemployment rate. (Bloomberg, 2010) (Bloomberg Business Week, 2010)

3.6 INFLATION, GDP DEFLATOR (ANNUAL %)

Inflation refers to the general level of increasing prices for goods and services in a country. The variable chosen to measure inflation is the GDP Deflator, so as to help compare GDP with other time periods in constant US Dollars. The GDP Deflator considers the changes in consumption patterns or introduction of new goods and services. (Investopedia).

The GDP Deflator is calculated as the ratio of GDP at current market prices (Nominal GDP) to the value of GDP at base year prices (Real GDP). (Econport)

GDP Deflator = Nominal GDP / Real GDP

Data Source : World Bank

The inflation of UAE on an average has been before the crisis kept increasing year on year due to the rapid economic expansion. It was the highest at 18.53% in 2008. The Government has adopted a conservative approach since then and has brought down inflation levels considerably. The data shows inflation was at 5.49% in 2012. In UAE, two factors that contribute the most to inflation are housing and food prices. Real estate prices have been increasing over the last one to two years but is moderating now. However, the increase in rents is what is bothering and is contributing to the increasing inflation. On the other side credit growth seems to be picking up after a slack of over four years. (The National, 2014) (Samba, 2014)

For Germany, inflation levels have been comparatively stable, averaging at about 1.07%. The highest was recorded in 2007 at 1.63%. In the year 2012, inflation was at 1.46%. This also means interest rates have been more stable compared to its European counterparts. When compared to the UAE, Germany seems to have kept better control of its inflation levels. However, Germanys low inflation levels is currently hampering the stabilization and re-balancing of Southern Europe economies. Such low inflation levels can damage the stagnating economy of the Euro Zone and aggressive corrective measures will have to be taken by the German Government and the ECB. (Wall Street Journal, 2014)

3.7 BANK NON-PERFORMING LOANS TO TOTAL GROSS LOANS (%)

This variable refers to the ratio of the value of non-performing loans to the total amount of loans given by banks as shown in the balance sheet. This is a financial and not an economic indicator. It is selected to give an overview of the much talked about non-performing loans. This is becoming important when analyzing the financial situation of banks in an economy. (World Bank)

Data Source : World Bank

For United Arab Emirates, this ratio saw a significant decline from 15.3% in 2002 to 2.3% in 2008, which was a good sign. When faced with the Global crisis and real estate bubble, this ratio shot up and has been on the rise ever since. It stands at 8.4% in 2012. This can be attributed to the large exposure of the real estate sector especially in the emirate of Dubai. The Government of Dubais flagship firm, Dubai World had to repay $25 billion of debt, borrowings that nearly brought down the emirates economy. The UAE Central Bank backed by Abu Dhabi bought $ 10 billion worth bonds from Dubai. The emirate of Abu Dhabi helped the economy of Dubai revive as a big brother gesture. Another point to make note of is the large expatriate population in the UAE, which involves a high micro credit risk. (Forbes, 2009)

For Germany, the ratio was at 5% in the year 2002 and the lowest was seen in 2007 at 2.6%. The non performing loans as a percentage of total loans again increased in the year 2009 to 3.3% when the global economy was hit by the crisis. It was at 2.9% in 2012. In Germany, borrowing is considered as a guilt. Thus, the people of Germany prefer to live within what they can afford and not cross the line with taking loans. (BBC, 2012)

3.8 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, NET INFLOWS (BOP, CURRENT US$)

Foreign Direct Investment refers to the net inflow of funds invested in the economy in different companies in the form of equity or short term capital. It is shown in current US Dollars. The net inflow is the difference between foreign investment and divestment. (World Bank)

Data Source : World Bank

The above graph compares the Foreign Direct Investment of Germany and UAE.

It has been observed that the FDI levels of UAE have been growing significantly from 2002 recording its highest at $ 13723.6 million in 2008. It fell to $ 4002.7 million in 2009 when the economy was impacted by the Crisis. However, from there on it has been steadily increasing and was at $ 9601.9 million in 2012 and at $ 10487.95 million in 2013. The UAE has been attracting foreign investors mainly due to its zero taxation policy, 100% foreign ownership and is growing as a major trading hub with its excellent port infrastructure. The availability of huge hydro-carbon resources does not require the Government to raise its revenues by way of imposing direct taxes. (Dubai Business Blog, 2014) (HSBC, 2013)

When we look at the graph for Germany, the FDI levels have been fluctuating which is not a very good sign. It was at $ 53605.2 million in 2002 and fell drastically to $ - 9802.9 million in 2004. It again shot up to $ 55544.9 million in 2006 which was the highest. The figure for 2012 is $ 34707.2 million and $ 32627.49 million in 2013. The instability was mainly caused by the global crisis and then followed by the crisis in the Euro Zone. The FDI levels are expected to stabilize by 2014 and grow from there. Companies from China followed by India have been increasingly investing in Germany. (Santander Trade, 2014)

4 FUTURE OUTLOOK

4.1 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE)

After successfully winning the bid for hosting the EXPO 2020, Dubais economy has shown strong signs of recovery after the crisis. The expected infrastructure spending could exceed $ 40 billion. The UAE Government has taken significant measures by way of passing laws with respect to controlling property prices to avoid another bubble. The development spending across the Emirates is backed by Abu Dhabi, which has very strong finances, contributed by significant oil revenues. The UAE faces some challenges too and it is to be seen how well it manages them. First is effective management of infrastructure projects in the run up to EXPO 2020 and to ensure there is no over supply post 2020, which can cause a bubble in real estate prices. Also, the falling oil prices can cause a panic as the economy though in the process of diversification, is still dependent on oil revenues. Inflation is also rising due to the sudden uptick in prices. GDP is expected to grow between 4-5% in 2014 and 2015. New investment laws and upgradation of legal infrastructure is expected soon and this will further increase the foreign investment in the economy and improve the fundamentals. The future certainly looks bright for the United Arab Emirates. (Samba, 2014) (Gulf News, 2014)

4.2 GERMANY

The German economy has made a headstart in the first quarter of 2014 but it remains to be seen if it can continue the growth momentum. Exports and retail sales have shown growth. The problems of Italy and Spain however may dent the growth of Germany and it remains to be seen how the Euro nations recover from their debts. Another challenge faced by Germany is their contracting and ageing workforce. The worsening of the crisis in Ukraine is another threat in the short term. The partial recovery of the Euro crisis has certainly lifted the Euro. The GDP is expected to grow at between 1.2 to 2 % in the years 2014 and 2015. The economic fundamentals of Germany remain strong. (Bundes Bank, 2014) (EY, 2014)

5 CONCLUSION

From the above comparison and analysis of data of the economies of UAE and Germany, it can be said both the countries have recovered well post the financial crisis in 2007. UAE has been on a growth trajectory since and after Dubai winning the bid for hosting the EXPO 2020, the fundamentals have improved. Germany did face some bottlenecks post 2007 too in form of the Euro crisis. Germany seems to have stabilized now and is expected to grow and retain its position of being the largest economy in the Euro Zone.

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