Community Growth & Projections

CommunityGrowth&Projections

PresentedDecember3,2018

PresentationOrganization

• Purpose• Projectionmethodology• Projectionresults• Observations

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Purpose

Purpose• Projecthousinggrowthanddemographicchangebetweennowand2035usingcommunityanddeveloperplans

• Translateprojectedhousinganddemographicchangesintoenrollmentprojections– Considertheimpactofopenenrollment

• Compareenrollmentprojectionswithexistingschoolcapacities

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ProjectionMethodology

NeighborhoodAnalysis

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HousingProjectionMethodology

• Estimate2018housingunitsineachneighborhood• Project2020,2025,2030,2035unitsineachneighborhoodby:– Understandinghousingmarketandeconomicdynamics– Analyzingmunicipalandsubdivisionplans– Interviewingmunicipalstaffandrealestateprofessionals– Decidingrateandmixofhousinggrowth

• ChecksummedhousingprojectionsagainstrecentbuildingpermitactivityandStateprojections

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EnrollmentProjectionMethodology• Determine2018resident4K-12student-per-housingunitratiosfor

eachgradegroup(4K-5,6-8,9-12)ineachneighborhood

• Projectunique2020,2025,2030,and2035student-per-housingunitratiosforeachgradegroupineachneighborhoodby:– Reviewingbirthratesandagingstudentsthroughgradegroups– Comparingneighborhoodtoothersatdifferentstages– Factoringimpactofnewhousing,consideringmix– Projectingturnoverbysubdivisionages&2010-18ratiochanges

• Multiply2020/2025/2030/2035housingunitsby2020/2025/2030/2035ratiostoarriveatenrollmentprojections

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BirthTrends,2000-2017

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0102030405060708090

100

Source:WisconsinDepartmentofHealthServices

RecentHomeSalesbyNeighborhood

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WCSDEnrollmentTrends

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1,428 1,356

4KAdded

1,476

97 132 229

-200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

WCSDResidentEnrollment GrossOpenEnrollmentIntoWCSDSchools

HousingProjectionResults

HousingProjections

• Weproject890newhousingunitsintheWCSDby2035—or~50newunitsperyear

• 82%projectedtobesinglefamilyhomes

• ~60%projectedtobeVillageandTownofWinneconne(549units)

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HousingProjections• Projected~50housingunitsperyearishigherthan~30unitsperyearsince2010.Why?– Recentupwardtrend– Regionalandlocalemploymentgrowth– Slightlygreatermultifamilyhousing%– Goodhighwayaccessandnewbridge– Nextfrontierinregion– ModestboostifClaytonsuccessfullyincorporates– AppealofWCSD

• Still,ourprojectionsdonotbuildinanother2007-08crisis—significantrecessionwouldsetbackprojections

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HousingProjectionsbyMunicipality

• 338newhousingunitsinVillageofWinneconneby2035,or~20peryear,includingmulti-familyandseniorhousing

• 211newhousingunitsinTownofWinneconneby2035—or~12peryear—allsinglefamily

• Ofremainingmunicipalities,Claytonexpectedtobemostnoteworthyhousingcontributor(127unitsby2035inWCSDportion)

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HousingUnitProjectionsMap

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Housing/EnrollmentProjectionRelationship

• Whathappensinexistinghousingcriticaltoenrollment– Over80%ofyear2035homesarealreadybuilt

• Futurehousingwillnothaveasmanystudentsaspast– Moreemptynester,senior,multi-familyunits– Laterandsmallerfamilies,lowerbirthrates

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• Asaresult,mostdistrictsneedsomenewhousingdevelopmenttosimplymaintainsteadyenrollment

StudentEnrollmentProjections

EnrollmentProjections—Grades4K-12(AllSchools)

• BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojectanincreaseof1914K-12residentstudentsinWCSDschools– Doesnotincludeopen-enrollment-in– Open-enrollment-out&private/homeschoolingassumedtocontinueatsimilarrates

• About½ofincreaseexpectedtocomefromVillage• EnrollmentfromtheTownsofWinneconneandClaytonisalsoprojectedtoincrease

• Remainingtownsprojectedtohaveacombinedenrollmentdecrease of13%

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4K-12EnrollmentProjectionsMap

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EnrollmentProjections—Grades4K-5

• BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojecta92residentstudentenrollmentincreaseingrades4K-5,totaling7654K-4WCSDresidentstudentsby2035

• Resident 4K-5enrollmentprojectedtoapproachelementaryschool’stargetedcapacityby2035– RememberthatourenrollmentprojectionsincludeWCSDresidentstudentsonly

– Ifthecurrentlevelofopen-enrollment-incontinues,thenthecapacitypicturechanges

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EnrollmentProjections—Grades4K-5

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784

871

673 660 674 729 765

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

Sept.2018 2020 2025 2030 2035

UnderTargetedBuildingCapacityBetweenTargetedandMaximumCapacityProjectedWCSDResidentEnrollmentProjectedEnrollmentwithContinuationof2018Open-Enrollment-In

4K-5EnrollmentProjectionsMap

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EnrollmentProjections—Grades6-8

• BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojecta51residentstudentenrollmentincreaseingrades6-8,totaling3846-8WCSDresidentstudentsby2035

• WinneconneMiddleSchoolprojectedtobeatitstargetedcapacity~2035,assumingonlyWSCDresidentstudents– Ifthecurrentlevelofopen-enrollment-incontinues,thenthecapacitypicturechanges

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25

383

450

333 336 337 361

384

050

100150200250300350400450500

Sept.2018 2020 2025 2030 2035

UnderTargetedBuildingCapacity

BetweenTargetedandMaximumCapacity

ProjectedWCSDResidentEnrollment

ProjectedEnrollmentwithContinuationof2018Open-Enrollment-In

6-8EnrollmentProjectionsMap

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•BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojecta48residentstudentenrollmentincreaseingrades9-12,totaling5279-12WCSDresidentstudentsby2035

•Weprojectgrade9-12enrollmenttogentlydeclineovernextseveralyearsaslargerclassesgraduatewithoutbeingfullyreplacedbyincomingfreshmen– e.g.,201812thgradeclasshas150students,while2018Kindergartenclasshas106students

– Newhouseholdstypicallybringnooryoungerkids,sonewhousinggrowthwillhavedelayedimpact


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646

819

479 455 450 486527

0100200300400500600700800900

Sept.2018 2020 2025 2030 2035

UnderTargetedBuildingCapacity

BetweenTargetedandMaximumCapacity

ProjectedWCSDResidentEnrollment

ProjectedEnrollmentwithContinuationof2018Open-Enrollment-In

9-12EnrollmentProjectionsMap

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EnrollmentProjectionsOverview

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GradeGrouping

ActualEnrollment,September2018 ResidentEnrollmentProjections Change,

2018-2035Total

StudentsinSeats

WCSDResidentStudents

2020 2025 2030 2035

4K-5 791 673 660 674 729 765 +92

6-8 380 333 336 337 361 384 +51

9-12 541 479 455 450 486 527 +48

Total4K-12 1,712 1,485 1,451 1,461 1,576 1,676 +191

ConcludingObservations

ResultsOverview

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• Weprojectanincreasefrom1,485resident 4K-12studentsinSeptember2018to1,676studentsin2035—a191studentor13%increase

• 191studentincreasedividedasfollows:– 92moreelementaryschool(4K-5)students– 51moremiddleschool(6-8)students– 48morehighschool(9-12)students

Implications

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• Residentenrollmentprojectionsalonearenotprojectedtotestschoolcapacities,exceptperhapsatWinneconneMiddleSchool~2035

• But,assumingcontinuationofcurrentlevelsofopen-enrollment-in:– WinneconneElementaryandMiddleSchoolswouldbothapproachtheirtargetedcapacitiesbetween2020-2025andmaximumcapacitiesby~2035

– Evenassumingcontinuationofcurrentlevelsofopen-enrollment-in,WinneconneHighSchoolisnotprojectedtohavecapacityissuesthrough2035

CommunityGrowth&Projections

PresentedDecember3,2018

Community Growth & Projections

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