Gianclaudio Torlizzi – Managing Director T-Commodity

COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

September 2021

2

BASE METALS GAINED OVER 80% SINCE MARCH 2020 LOWS. TIN THE BEST PERFORMER (+153%) FOLLOWED BY COPPER (+100%) AND ALI (+75%)

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DRIVERS:

1. CONSUMPTION BOOM DRIVEN BY CHINA SUPPLY SIDE POLICY AND US MONETARY POLICY

2. DECARBONIZATION (CO2 EMISSION CUT POLICIES PURSUED BY CHINA, EU AND US)

3. TIGHTNESS SUPPLY (CAPITAL DISCIPLINE)

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FEDERAL RESERVE PLAYING A BIG ROLE IN PUSHING COMMODITIES PRICE UP IN…

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…WEAKENING THE US DOLLAR

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FREIGHT MARKET IN BLACK OUT. CHINA-US WEST COAST CONTAINER FEE ABOVE $20,000 DUE TO COVID ZERO STRATEGY. CHIP SHORTAGE BITING

11

US CORE CPI +4.3% IN JULY: STAGFLATION GIVING SHORT TERM UPSIDE TO COMMODITIES

Monthly USCPFY=ECI 30/06/2016 - 31/10/2021 (UTC)LineGrd; USCPFY=ECI; (S1; S2); 31/07/2021; 4,300N/A; N/A

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1,6

2

2,4

2,8

3,2

3,6

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4,44,300

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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LONG TERM COMMODITIES OUTLOOK REMAINS BULLISH

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