Collaborative Research on Sunlight and the Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean System CRREL
Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System
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Transcript of Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System
Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater
CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Michael Steele
Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA
Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System
Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater
CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Michael Steele
Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VAObjectives:
Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget
Synthesize information from:
• ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses• Oceanographic obs
• Terrestrial obs• Satellite obs
• Land surface models• Coupled ice-ocean models
Objectives:
Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget
Synthesize information from:
• ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses• Oceanographic obs
• Terrestrial obs• Satellite obs
• Land surface models• Coupled ice-ocean models
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VASome Products
…(all 2007)
Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007) The large-scale energy budget of the ArcticJ Geophys Res, 112
Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007) Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis submitted to Geophys Res Lett
Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007) Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20th centurysubmitted to Geophys Res Lett
Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecastGeophys Res Lett, 34
Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007) Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer
stateEOS, this week
Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007) The large-scale energy budget of the ArcticJ Geophys Res, 112
Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007) Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis submitted to Geophys Res Lett
Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007) Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20th centurysubmitted to Geophys Res Lett
Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecastGeophys Res Lett, 34
Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007) Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer
stateEOS, this week
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VALinkages to explore
SASS I:
• Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming
• Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends
• Miles: climate modes’ role in warming
• Walker: marine warming terrestrial ecosystem response?
SASS I:
• Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming
• Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends
• Miles: climate modes’ role in warming
• Walker: marine warming terrestrial ecosystem response?
SASS II:
• Zhang: ocean warming plankton response? (modeling)
• Matrai: ocean warming plankton response? (obs)
SASS II:
• Zhang: ocean warming plankton response? (modeling)
• Matrai: ocean warming plankton response? (obs)
probably others we’ve missed…
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
-FA Fsfc
EA/t
The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic(annual mean, seasonal cycle)
Serreze, Barrett, Slater, Steele (2007)
Atmospheric Column
Atmospheric Column
EIOL/t -(FO – FI)
Ice/Ocean/Land ColumnIce/Ocean/Land Column
• ERA40• NCEP re-analysis• ERBE
• Vinje obs.• J. Zhang model• Climatology (PHC)
FFTOATOA
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
Net Annual Surface Heat Flux(ERA-40)
Net Annual Surface Heat Flux(ERA-40)
W/m2
upup
downdown…too much?…too much?
LWtop too big
SeasonalEnergy Budget
(ERA-40)
SeasonalEnergy Budget
(ERA-40)
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VAObserved Sea Ice
Decline: Faster than Forecast
Compiled by NSIDC
Stroeve, Holland, Meier, Scambos, Serreze (2007)
20072007
4.134.13
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
The Emergence of Arctic AmplificationThe Emergence of Arctic Amplification
Modeled Future SATModeled Future SAT
Serreze, Barrett, Stroeve, Holland (2007)
summersummer
winterwinter winterwinter
ice thinning winter surface warming
Observed TemperatureAnomalies
(NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999)
Observed TemperatureAnomalies
(NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999)
It’s starting to happen!
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VAsummer (Jul-Aug-Sep)
Arctic Seas Ocean Surface Warming over the 20th century
World Ocean Database ’05(in situ data)
Steele, Ermold, Zhang(GRL submitted ’07)
summer (JAS)
Sea Surface Temp(0-10 m)
Beaufort-W
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VASST trends & the AO
AO AO 1965-951965-95
divergdiverg
AtlWAtlW
OceanOcean
IceIce
Warming influenced by ocean & ice advection
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
SST trends: regional anomaly time
series
SST trends: regional anomaly time
series
(f) Chukchi
(a) Beaufort-E
(c) Bering St
(e) Kara
(d) ESS+ Laptev
(b) Beaufort-W
SST
(C)
SST
(C)
SST
(C)
Reynolds et al
recentwarming
recentwarming
recentwarming
in situin situsatellitesatellite
WOD’05
smoothedsmoothed
1930 1965 1995 1930 1965 1995
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
July-AugSST
anomalies(rel to 1982-2007)
July-AugSST
anomalies(rel to 1982-2007)
Temperature Anomaly (C)
2000 2001 2002
200520042003
2006 2007
ehh
2007:What a year!
Max Anom 5°CMax Anom 5°C
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
Thank YouThank You
Energy Transports across 70 deg N
Jan 365633 Feb 295006 Mar 301168 Apr 292278 May 349785 Jun 490397 Jul 620166 Aug 725292 Sep 733829 Oct 701069Nov 652471 Dec 366975
MJ
* 10
15
Months
Arctic Ocean Sensible Heat Content
Arctic Ocean Sensible Heat Content
1000 MJ/m2 1000 MJ/m2
Annualmean
70-90 degN
J M M MJ S NF A J A O D
Courtesy M Steele
The Emergence of Arctic Amplification
The Signature in CCSM3 Oct-Dec TemperatureAnomalies in NCEP,Relative to 1979-1999
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
SST trends: regional anomaly time
series
SST trends: regional anomaly time
series
(f) Chukchi
(a) Beaufort-E
(c) Bering St
(e) Kara
(d) ESS+ Laptev
(b) Beaufort-W
SST
(C)
SST
(C)
SST
(C)
Reynolds et al
ice advection influence
recentwarming
recentwarming
recentwarming
decadal osc?
in situin situsatellitesatellite
WOD’05
smoothedsmoothed
1930 1965 1995 1930 1965 1995
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VASST trends & the AO
AO AO 1930-651930-65
AO AO 1965-951965-95
coolingcooling warmingwarming
divergdivergconvergconverg
Ice advection influenceIce advection influence
sub-surface
sub-surface
PacWPacW
Ocean advection influenceOcean advection influence
AtlWAtlW
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VANet Surface Heat Fluxfrom ERA-40
Net Surface Heat Fluxfrom ERA-40
Annual
W/m2
January
July
W/m2
upup
downdown…too much?…too much?
weak weak strongstrong
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,
Alexandria, VA
SeasonalArctic Ocean
Energy Budget(ERA-40)
SeasonalArctic Ocean
Energy Budget(ERA-40)
LWtop too big