THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Cole Cantrell and Grant McNulty

4th Block

WHAT DOES THIS MODEL DO? This model can be used to show how

developed a country is It contains 4 stages, with a possible 5th

stage Calculated with the Crude Birth Rate,

CBR, and the Crude Death Rate, CDR Population pyramids have a correlation

to each stage

STAGE 1 In Stage 1, people will be hunters and

gathers Currently, there are no countries are in

Stage 1. The First Agricultural Revolution has

allowed all countries to pass Stage 1. The CBR and CDR vary

widely causing low population growth

STAGE 2 In Stage 2, the world population has

spiked and grows rapidly The CBR remains high, while the CDR

has dropped significantly, causing high growth

The Industrial Revolution and Medical Revolution

Currently, many African, Latin American, and some Asian countries are in Stage 2

STAGE 2 CONT.

As shown by the population pyramid, Stage 2’s pyramid, look like an average pyramid.

STAGE 3 In Stage 3, the population grows, but more

slowly than in Stage 2 The CDR continues to lower, but the CBR also

lowers but not as fast as the CDR. Many European and North American countries

moved to Stage 3 in the 1950s, and Latin American, and Asian countries have moved up to Stage 3 recently.

Economic changes has allowed more jobs and women to join the work force, resulting in the lesser chance of having kids

STAGE 3 CONT.

The population pyramid in a Stage 3 country has a more box shape to it.

STAGE 4 In Stage 4, little population occurs, or the

country reaches zero population growth\ The gap between the CBR and CDR

continues to decrease, or the two overlap Very few countries are in Stage 4,

typically European countries The total fertility rate, the average of how

many children a women has, is below the Natural Increase Rate, 2.1 children

STAGE 4 CONT.

Population pyramids in Stage 4 looks like an upside down pyramid.

STAGE 5? Some geographers believe that the

Demographic Transition Model has a 5th stage

In Stage 5, the CBR will be below the CDR, and the population would begin to decline

It is debated on whether few countries, such as Germany, are in Stage 5