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Climate–Carbon Modelling, Assimilation & Prediction

Wolfgang Knorr, QUEST

NCEO/Carbon Fusion

Sheffield, 29 February 2008

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Climate–Carbon Modelling, Assimilation & Prediction

(CCMAP)

• QUEST project contracted to CEH, PI Eleanor Blyth

• 30 months from ~April 2008• linking CCDAS activities with UKMO

and U Exeter

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QUEST Goals

• improved understanding and knowledge on ... the pattern, mechanisms and prognosis for land and ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2

• information for policy makers concerning the ... environmental consequences of different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions

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CCMAP Goals

• to quantify the climate-carbon cycle feedback

• to provide quality assurance for the carbon cycle component of Earth System Models

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CO2, warming trajectories based on

C4MIP and “G8” emissions scenario (50% cut by 2050) [from House et al., in prep.]

CCMAP Rationale

Large uncertainty in carbon-cycle feedback is policy relevant

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CCMAP Work Plan

• Coordination: CEH Wallingford (Eleanor Blyth)

• Synthesis of data sets for testing global carbon cycle

models, development of tool box for testing (WP1)

• Development of leading global carbon cycle inverse

modelling system based on Bayesian parameter estimation,

application to estimating climate–carbon cycle feedback

strength (WP2)

• Demonstration study for similar parameter estimation

framework with coupled carbon cycle–climate model (WP3)

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CCMAP WP1

• flux tower data, FACE experiments, methane,

NOx, VOCs

• to liaise with NCEO/CLASSIC, JULES science

leaders

• one PDRA at Wallingford, funded 50% from

CCMAP, 50% from UKMO

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CCMAP WP2

• goal is extension of current CCDAS (using

BETHY)

• add ocean component (Andy Ridgwell, David

Marshall)

• develop full prognostic capability until 2100

• small support for Exeter with adjoint JULES

• 1 PDRA at U Bristol, 1 PDRA at U Oxford

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CCMAP WP3

• build 4-D var assimilation system for simple Earth

system model (probably “planet simulator”)

• focus is on technical issues of assimilation

• led by Marko Scholze (QUEST) with sub-contract

to FastOpt

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CCMAP Synergies• general QUEST funding for JULES• CEH (+NCEO?) interest in benchmarking

system for JULES land surface model• Exeter University/UKMO to develop adjoint

of JULES and implement in CCDAS platform, with QUEST support (GWR Fellowship project)

• QUEST FireMAFS project (Martin Wooster)• QUEST funding for visit of Pierre

Friedlingstein at Bristol

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NCEO-CCMAP complementarity

• atmospheric O2/N2 (QUEST Fellowship – Andrew Manning)

• ocean carbon cycle component of CCDAS

• satellite atmospheric CO2

• model evaluation (“tool box”)?• assimilation of eddy flux data?