National Meteorological Service of Belize

Presents

Climate Services and Products in Belize at the

National LevelBy

Catherine Cumberbatch & Derrick Rudon

October 30, 2013Radisson Fort George

What are the Climate Services and who are the

Providers in Belize?

The National Meteorological Service of Belize is the leading governmental authority on weather, water and climate.

It provides meteorological and climate-based products and services to the Belizean public through :

•systematic and accurate monitoring and data collection

•reliable data analyses

•timely dissemination of user-friendly information on regular and emergency events and processes.

This is undertaken in order to contribute to the safety and well-being of the people of Belize and the sustainable development of the nation.

Meteorological Instruments Network

What are the Climate ServiceNational Met Service of Belize issues the followingservices:

1. Short-term (3 hours up to 2 days) General or Public Forecast. Marine Forecast Aviation Forecast Fire ForecastRadar

Forecast products 24- 48 hours

Cont’d

2. Mid-term (4 days) weather forecasts

Four day forecastAgro-meteorological ForecastTelevision Forecast

Climate Services Cont’d

3. Long-term (monthly) weather forecasts

Monthly Agro-met Bulletin.Climate predictions for 3-months and seasons example

- May-June-July (MJJ), August-September-October (ASO)

Drought Monitoring

Climate Predictability Tool• The Climate Predictability Tool(CPT) developed by the International Research Institute(IRI)• Produces seasonal forecast forprecipitation

Precipitation Outlook ForOctober-December 2013

Precipitation Outlook for August to October 2013

19351938194219451949195219561959196319661970197319771980198419871991199419982001200520082012-5-4-3-2-101234

Standard Precipitation Index for Punta Gorda (1935-2013)

3 Month6 Months

SP

I

195319551958196019631965196819701973197519781980198319851988199019931995199820002003200520082010-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Standard Precipitation Index for Philip Goldson International Airport (1953-

2013)

3 Months 6 Months

The results of the Standard Precipitation Index calculations for a few stations across Belize.

Oct-13Seasonal Precipitation

Forecast for ONDStation 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month Probability

Philip Goldson Airport 0.2 - 2.91 0.68 - 3.06 1.25 - 3.02 0.28 - 2.06 35 Above -0.49 - 0.2 0.25 - 0.68 0.96 - 1.25 0.01 - 0.28 35 Normal

-1.8 - -0.49 -0.34 - 0.25 0.58 - 0.96 -0.34 – 0.58 30 Below

Central Farm 0.91 - 1.96 1- 1.51 0.77 – 1.11 0.09 – 0.35 35 Above 0.48 - 0.91 0.83 – 1.0 0.66 – 0.77 0.01 - 0.09 35 Normal

-1.06 – 0.48 0.45 – 0.83 0.44 – 0.66 -0.16 – 0.01 30 BelowMelinda 0.49 – 2.23 0.86 – 2.22 0.55 – 1.62 0.51 – 1.39 35 Above

-0.38 – 0.49 0.34 – 0.86 0.17 – 0.55 0.22 – 0.51 35 Normal

-2.24 - -0.38 -0.35 – 0.34 -0.3 – 0.17 -0.15 – 0.22 30 BelowTowerHill 0.41 – 2.58 1.58 – 3.13 0.99 – 2.4 0.39 – 1.65 35 Above

-0.16 – 0.41 1.27 – 1.58 0.74 – 0.99 0.18 – 0.39 35 Normal

-2.88 - -0.16 0.45 – 1.27 0.09 – 0.74 -0.35 – 0.18 30 BelowNov-13

Station 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month Probability

Philip Goldson Airport 0.65 – 1.81 0.25 – 3.32 1.31 – 3.45 0.79 – 2.06 35 Above

0.05 – 0.65 -0.65 – 0.25 0.78 – 1.31 0.31 – 0.79 35 Normal

-2.89 – 0.05 -2.48 - -0.65 -0.19 – 0.78 -0.53 – 0.31 30 BelowCentral Farm 0.72 – 2.09 1.05 – 2.19 0.94 – 1.62 0.25 – 0.78 35 Above

0.48-0.72 0.76 – 1.05 0.79 – 0.94 0.14 – 0.25 35 Normal

-1.47 – 0.48 -0.36 – 0.76 0.31 – 0.79 -0.21 – 0.14 30 BelowMelinda 0.52 – 1.75 0.78 – 2.79 0.9 – 2.34 0.53 – 1.87 35 Above

-0.22 – 0.52 -0.19 – 0.78 0.3 – 0.9 0 – 0.53 35 Normal

-3.62 - -0.22 -1.98 - -0.19 -0.69 – 0.3 -0.84 – 0 30 BelowTowerHill 0.69 – 1.67 0.95 – 3.16 1.39 – 3.28 0.75 – 2.35 35 Above

0 – 0.69 0.23 – 0.95 0.84 – 1.39 0.32 – 0.75 35 Normal

-2.66 - 0 -1.64 – 0.23 -0.45 – 0.84 -0.64 – 0.32 30 Below

Climate Services Cont’d

Climatological normsGraphical analysisPredictive trends (temperature and rainfall)Summaries (rainfall, temperatures etc)Astronomical ProductsHurricane Reports

Data Request

Climatological Information

TRENDSTime series plots are made

by using historical data from our network of stations.

From these plots linear trend and 5-year moving averages

can be determined

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201524.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

PGIA Average Temperatures

Years

Tem

per

atu

res

(C)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

PGIA Annual Total Rainfall

Years

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

)

Ways to disseminate information

• Public Media

Monthly Bulletins

Monthly Weather Forecasts

Seasonal Forecasts

Siren Systems

Radio and TV Broadcasts

Internet (www.hydromet.gov.bz)•

Demands for climate service are huge and we at the Met Service continue to do our utmost best to provide the service in

order to contribute to the safety and well-being of the people of Belize and

the sustainable development of the nation.

Threat of Climate Change demands a lot from

the National Meteorological Service .

There are many Challenges we face in our day to day work. Example we lack the expertise in Climatology and Agro-meteorology. We have limited staff .

But with all our shortcomings we continue to strive towards Excellence . We often looked to the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology for their Guidance and Assistance , which I must say they have being extremely helpful.

We all have heard and see most of the services and products that we have and that can be provided by the National Meteorological Service , it’s up to you to tell us how these services can help each of you in your specific field and quest.

Or tell us of other services or products that you think we can provide to you that would be beneficial.