Climate Disruption:Climate Disruption:People cause it; people can fix itPeople cause it; people can fix it

Climate Disruption:Climate Disruption:People cause it; people can fix itPeople cause it; people can fix it

Climate Briefing and DiscussionClimate Briefing and DiscussionClimate Briefing and DiscussionClimate Briefing and Discussion

1.1. Communication challengeCommunication challenge

2.2. Solutions: Technology prospects Solutions: Technology prospects and clean energy transition driversand clean energy transition drivers

3.3. Global, national, and state Global, national, and state momentum for climate policymomentum for climate policy

What’s the story with global What’s the story with global warming?warming?

The story people hear: The story people hear: “Chicken Little”“Chicken Little”

Reframing global warmingReframing global warming

““Global warming”Global warming” RemoteRemote Out of scaleOut of scale UnconnectedUnconnected A condition (accept)A condition (accept) A threatA threat HopelessHopeless

>> People don’t see >> People don’t see themselves in the themselves in the picturepicture

Climate SolutionsClimate Solutions Here and nowHere and now Human scaleHuman scale ConnectedConnected A problem (fix)A problem (fix) An opportunityAn opportunity ActionableActionable

>> >> Put people in the Put people in the center of the picturecenter of the picture

DenialDenialConfusionConfusion

DenialDenialConfusionConfusion

““I don’t think this is a big issue, I don’t think this is a big issue, because nobody’s doing anything because nobody’s doing anything about it.”about it.”

Practical solutions break the circlePractical solutions break the circle

““I don’t think this is a big issue, I don’t think this is a big issue, because nobody’s doing anything because nobody’s doing anything about it.”about it.”

Practical solutions break the circlePractical solutions break the circle

InactionInactionInactionInaction

"We can't solve problems by "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of using the same kind of thinking we used when we thinking we used when we created them.“created them.“ – Albert Einstein – Albert Einstein

Forget Chicken Little. Forget Chicken Little. Here’s the story:Here’s the story: The basic science is clear and The basic science is clear and

urgent; solutions are within reachurgent; solutions are within reach Impacts are real, regional, economic, Impacts are real, regional, economic,

happening nowhappening now Solutions support other key goals: Solutions support other key goals:

health, security, prosperityhealth, security, prosperity Our generation of Pacific Our generation of Pacific

Northwesterners has a Northwesterners has a crucial crucial role to playrole to play

How global warming worksHow global warming works

1. Sun’s energy comes through Earth’s atmosphere

2. Some heat bounces back into space

3. Atmosphere contains some of sun’s warmth, making Earth habitable

How global warming worksHow global warming worksHow global warming worksHow global warming works

Fossil fuels: stored carbon

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Fossil fuels: stored carbonFossil fuels: stored carbon

How global warming worksHow global warming worksHow global warming worksHow global warming works

Fossil fuels: stored carbon

Mt St. Helens on May 18, 1980Mt St. Helens on May 18, 1980

We put We put 88

Mt St. Helens’ Mt St. Helens’ worth of CO2 worth of CO2

into our into our atmosphereatmosphereevery dayevery day

Physical signal: observed changes Physical signal: observed changes in ice and snow coverin ice and snow cover

Duration ofDuration of ice cover on rivers and ice cover on rivers and lakes has decreasedlakes has decreased by 2.5 weeks by 2.5 weeks over the last century in mid- & over the last century in mid- & high latitude areashigh latitude areas

Arctic sea ice lossArctic sea ice loss in area (10 - in area (10 - 15%) and thickness (40%) over 15%) and thickness (40%) over the last half century.the last half century.

““Record heatwave closes Mont Record heatwave closes Mont Blanc to tourists” Blanc to tourists” -- 2003“The conditions have been so extreme and the retreat of the Alps' eternal snows and glaciers so pronounced, that the range - and its multi-billion-pound tourist industry - may never fully recover”

IPCC

South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000 South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000

People Cause it. People Cause it. People Can Fix it.People Can Fix it.

People can and must engineer a People can and must engineer a transition to clean energy sources and transition to clean energy sources and efficient energy systems.efficient energy systems.

People can and must engineer a People can and must engineer a transition to clean energy sources and transition to clean energy sources and efficient energy systems.efficient energy systems.

WeWe can play a crucial role right can play a crucial role right here, right now….. here, right now….. ……and we’ll have healthier communities and we’ll have healthier communities and stronger economies if we do.and stronger economies if we do.

WeWe can play a crucial role right can play a crucial role right here, right now….. here, right now….. ……and we’ll have healthier communities and we’ll have healthier communities and stronger economies if we do.and stronger economies if we do.

Waste Reduction Waste Reduction & Disposal & Disposal SolutionsSolutions

Transportation & Transportation & Smart Growth Smart Growth

SolutionsSolutions

EnergyEnergy SolutionsSolutions

ForestForest& Farm & Farm

SolutionsSolutions

Climate Climate SolutionsSolutionsClimate Climate

SolutionsSolutions

Clean energy solutionsClean energy solutions

Energy meets information technologyEnergy meets information technology

Collaborative connects Collaborative connects technologies, markets, technologies, markets, investmentinvestment

Collaborative connects Collaborative connects technologies, markets, technologies, markets, investmentinvestment

Smart Energy Network:Smart Energy Network: Cleaner, smaller sources linked Cleaner, smaller sources linked by smarter, efficient systemsby smarter, efficient systems

Smart Energy Network:Smart Energy Network: Cleaner, smaller sources linked Cleaner, smaller sources linked by smarter, efficient systemsby smarter, efficient systems

Source: BPASource: BPASource: BPASource: BPA

• $15B industry, $2B in PNW $15B industry, $2B in PNW

• Leaders: Itron, Alstom, Leaders: Itron, Alstom, Schweitzer, CeleritySchweitzer, Celerity

• Market: $450 B in planned Market: $450 B in planned infrastructure upgradesinfrastructure upgrades

• $15B industry, $2B in PNW $15B industry, $2B in PNW

• Leaders: Itron, Alstom, Leaders: Itron, Alstom, Schweitzer, CeleritySchweitzer, Celerity

• Market: $450 B in planned Market: $450 B in planned infrastructure upgradesinfrastructure upgrades

Harvesting clean energy for ruralHarvesting clean energy for ruraldevelopment – development – www.harvestcleanenergy.orgwww.harvestcleanenergy.org

Farm incomeFarm income

EmploymentEmployment

Environmental Environmental improvementimprovement

Broad, bi-partisan Broad, bi-partisan appealappeal

Wind, sun, fuel crops, biogas, and geothermalWind, sun, fuel crops, biogas, and geothermal

Transportation solutionsTransportation solutions

Complete Complete communitiescommunitiesComplete Complete communitiescommunities

Clean vehicles Clean vehicles and fuelsand fuelsClean vehicles Clean vehicles and fuelsand fuels

Transportation Transportation choiceschoicesTransportation Transportation choiceschoices

The clean energy transition..The clean energy transition.. The clean energy transition..The clean energy transition..

Reasons for optimism: Reasons for optimism: at least 3 powerful at least 3 powerful global driversglobal drivers are are converging toward a converging toward a clean energy clean energy ““tipping point”tipping point” …. ….

Reasons for optimism: Reasons for optimism: at least 3 powerful at least 3 powerful global driversglobal drivers are are converging toward a converging toward a clean energy clean energy ““tipping point”tipping point” …. ….

Clean energy transition drivers:Clean energy transition drivers:Clean energy transition drivers:Clean energy transition drivers:

Kerry, McCain, Friedman: National security Kerry, McCain, Friedman: National security requires reducing fossil fuel dependencerequires reducing fossil fuel dependence

Vulnerable energy infrastructure – power Vulnerable energy infrastructure – power plants, pipelines, fuel terminalsplants, pipelines, fuel terminals

Exposure to economic disruptionExposure to economic disruption

Living Without OilLiving Without Oil““As war looms, the search for As war looms, the search for new energy alternatives is all the new energy alternatives is all the more urgent”more urgent”

Living Without OilLiving Without Oil““As war looms, the search for As war looms, the search for new energy alternatives is all the new energy alternatives is all the more urgent”more urgent”

Security and energy independenceSecurity and energy independence Security and energy independenceSecurity and energy independence

Clean energy transition drivers:Clean energy transition drivers: Poverty, technology, economicsPoverty, technology, economicsClean energy transition drivers:Clean energy transition drivers: Poverty, technology, economicsPoverty, technology, economics

Developing world needs clean, accessible energyDeveloping world needs clean, accessible energy• DevelopmentDevelopment• HealthHealth• Information/CommunicationInformation/Communication

Advanced economies need scalable, reliable, Advanced economies need scalable, reliable, energy – existing infrastructure is old, ricketyenergy – existing infrastructure is old, rickety

Information and energy tech converge to enable a Information and energy tech converge to enable a new generation of smarter, cleaner systemsnew generation of smarter, cleaner systems

““The Stone Age didn’t end The Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of stones”because they ran out of stones” - Sheik Yamani- Sheik Yamani

““The Stone Age didn’t end The Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of stones”because they ran out of stones” - Sheik Yamani- Sheik Yamani

Clean energy transition drivers:Clean energy transition drivers: Climate disruption and responseClimate disruption and responseClean energy transition drivers:Clean energy transition drivers: Climate disruption and responseClimate disruption and response

Most developed nations Most developed nations have ratified Kyoto; treaty is have ratified Kyoto; treaty is stalled, but action hasn’tstalled, but action hasn’t

With binding targets, right to With binding targets, right to emit becomes scarce and emit becomes scarce and valuable >> market valuable >> market acceleratesaccelerates

US is not a signatory, but US is not a signatory, but America is moving. Why?America is moving. Why?• Environmental imperativeEnvironmental imperative• Federal paralysisFederal paralysis• Economic realityEconomic reality

Most developed nations Most developed nations have ratified Kyoto; treaty is have ratified Kyoto; treaty is stalled, but action hasn’tstalled, but action hasn’t

With binding targets, right to With binding targets, right to emit becomes scarce and emit becomes scarce and valuable >> market valuable >> market acceleratesaccelerates

US is not a signatory, but US is not a signatory, but America is moving. Why?America is moving. Why?• Environmental imperativeEnvironmental imperative• Federal paralysisFederal paralysis• Economic realityEconomic reality

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

Geeky but optimistic view: Geeky but optimistic view: The essential The essential catalytic role of carbon limitscatalytic role of carbon limits

$8$8$8$8

PacCorpPacCorpIRPIRP

KyotoKyoto

$/ton$/tonCO2CO2$/ton$/tonCO2CO2

QQQQ20032003

$2-3$2-3$2-3$2-3

PP

StabilizeStabilize 25%?25%?

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Tip

T

ip

zone

zone

Tip

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ip

zone

zone

% of current GHG emissions% of current GHG emissions% of current GHG emissions% of current GHG emissions

100%100%100%100%

0%0%0%0%

Cities and states for climate protectionCities and states for climate protection

Businesses are positioningBusinesses are positioning….….

Voluntary partnerships; emissions trading; clean Voluntary partnerships; emissions trading; clean energy investmentenergy investment

Investors revaluing companies based on exposure to Investors revaluing companies based on exposure to carbon risk, opportunitycarbon risk, opportunity WSJ 2-19-04: AEP and Cinergy agree to disclose after WSJ 2-19-04: AEP and Cinergy agree to disclose after

shareholder campaign; “I believe it’s more likely than not shareholder campaign; “I believe it’s more likely than not that we’ll live in a carbon constrained world.” – Cinergy CEOthat we’ll live in a carbon constrained world.” – Cinergy CEO

PacifiCorp: $8/ton >> market shiftPacifiCorp: $8/ton >> market shift

““Business leaders say Business leaders say climate change is our climate change is our greatest challengegreatest challenge””

-World Economic Forum-World Economic ForumPress ReleasePress Release

3. Climate policy, prospects 3. Climate policy, prospects

U.S. Policy gained U.S. Policy gained momentum in momentum in 2003: McCain-2003: McCain-Lieberman got 43 Lieberman got 43 votes in US Senate votes in US Senate (1997 vote: 95-0) (1997 vote: 95-0)

U.S. Policy gained U.S. Policy gained momentum in momentum in 2003: McCain-2003: McCain-Lieberman got 43 Lieberman got 43 votes in US Senate votes in US Senate (1997 vote: 95-0) (1997 vote: 95-0)

Global: Without U.S., Kyoto is shaky, but Global: Without U.S., Kyoto is shaky, but international resolve is stronginternational resolve is strongGlobal: Without U.S., Kyoto is shaky, but Global: Without U.S., Kyoto is shaky, but international resolve is stronginternational resolve is strong

U.S., with less than 5% of world’s U.S., with less than 5% of world’s population, produces 25% of GHGspopulation, produces 25% of GHGsU.S., with less than 5% of world’s U.S., with less than 5% of world’s population, produces 25% of GHGspopulation, produces 25% of GHGs

Climate policy -- US states are playersClimate policy -- US states are players

Climate policy – states at the Climate policy – states at the forefront:forefront:

New England Governors – Eastern New England Governors – Eastern Canadian PremiersCanadian Premiers

Northeast-mid-Atlantic “cap and trade”Northeast-mid-Atlantic “cap and trade” West Coast Governors West Coast Governors

Signed pact in September 03, plans due in Signed pact in September 03, plans due in fall of O4fall of O4

CA is first to limit GHGs from carsCA is first to limit GHGs from cars State action feeds international State action feeds international

momentummomentum No longer if, but how and when…No longer if, but how and when…

Where are the handles? “Global” Where are the handles? “Global” warming is a local, state, warming is a local, state, and regional issueand regional issue

Impacts: local and Impacts: local and regional resources, regional resources, economieseconomies

Impacts: local and Impacts: local and regional resources, regional resources, economieseconomies

Causes: local and Causes: local and regional transportation regional transportation and energy decisionsand energy decisions

Causes: local and Causes: local and regional transportation regional transportation and energy decisionsand energy decisions

““Global” warming is a local, state, and Global” warming is a local, state, and regional issueregional issue

Solutions: local and Solutions: local and regional policy; energy regional policy; energy innovationinnovation

Solutions: local and Solutions: local and regional policy; energy regional policy; energy innovationinnovation

Hard assets:Hard assets:• Hydro: “renewable edge;” Hydro: “renewable edge;”

efficiency gainsefficiency gains• Clean energy enterpriseClean energy enterprise• Technology leadershipTechnology leadership

Hard assets:Hard assets:• Hydro: “renewable edge;” Hydro: “renewable edge;”

efficiency gainsefficiency gains• Clean energy enterpriseClean energy enterprise• Technology leadershipTechnology leadership

Northwest is a natural climate and Northwest is a natural climate and clean energy leader:clean energy leader:Northwest is a natural climate and Northwest is a natural climate and clean energy leader:clean energy leader:

Disposition:Disposition:

““This Place on Earth”This Place on Earth”Global outlook: Global outlook: trade trade relationships, Seattle Initiativerelationships, Seattle Initiative

Disposition:Disposition:

““This Place on Earth”This Place on Earth”Global outlook: Global outlook: trade trade relationships, Seattle Initiativerelationships, Seattle Initiative

Northwest New Renewable Projects: 1998

Source: Renewable Source: Renewable Northwest ProjectNorthwest ProjectSource: Renewable Source: Renewable Northwest ProjectNorthwest Project

New Renewable Projects: 2003

Source: Renewable Northwest ProjectSource: Renewable Northwest ProjectSource: Renewable Northwest ProjectSource: Renewable Northwest Project

What can you do now?What can you do now?1. Be aware and engaged – sign up for the1. Be aware and engaged – sign up for the

2. Be part of the solution 2. Be part of the solution Clean, efficient energyClean, efficient energy Transportation choicesTransportation choices Reduce, reuse, recycleReduce, reuse, recycle

3. 3. Be a Be a VOICEVOICE RIGHT NOW: RIGHT NOW:

CO2 STANDARD FOR CO2 STANDARD FOR WASH. POWER WASH. POWER

PLANTS PLANTS

Cleaning up power plant emissions:Cleaning up power plant emissions:A simple plan for addressing the fastest growing source of A simple plan for addressing the fastest growing source of

global warming pollution in the NWglobal warming pollution in the NW

Problem:Problem: Digging a deeper hole -- New Digging a deeper hole -- New power plants will add millions of tons of power plants will add millions of tons of COCO22, (one plant > , (one plant > 400,000400,000 cars) cars)

Solution:Solution: Limit CO2 from new plants with Limit CO2 from new plants with cost-effective mitigation and offsets. cost-effective mitigation and offsets. Our proposal: 40% mitigation Our proposal: 40% mitigation Legislation/rule would achieve close to Legislation/rule would achieve close to

10%10%

What’s at stake?What’s at stake?What’s at stake?What’s at stake?

1950-991950-991950-991950-99 2050s2050s2050s2050s 2090s2090s2090s2090s

Climate Disruption:Climate Disruption:Tired of the arguments? Ready for solutions?Tired of the arguments? Ready for solutions?

Climate Disruption:Climate Disruption:Tired of the arguments? Ready for solutions?Tired of the arguments? Ready for solutions?

Mountaineers

February 23, 2004

Mountaineers

February 23, 2004

Web ResourcesWeb Resources

www.climatesolutions.orgwww.climatesolutions.org www.transportationchoices.orgwww.transportationchoices.org www.simpleliving.netwww.simpleliving.net www.harvestcleanenergy.orgwww.harvestcleanenergy.org