It happens to be an emergency: climate action now!

Climate science: warnings that mustn’t be ignored

• Basic science overview

• Runaway climate change

Climate science – overview

http://www.combatclimatechange.ie/index.asp?locID=6&docID=&COMMAND=PRINTER

Greenhouse gases and temperature, last 400k years

http://planetforlife.com/gwarm/glob400000.html

Earth’s temperature is rising

Figure SPM.3

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-figures.html

Runaway climate change

• “We either keep the warming small or it is likely to be quite large.” (James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute) www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Avoidingcatastrophe.pdf

• Positive feedbacks: “everywhere scientists looked in 2006, they encountered feedbacks that will make things worse – a lot worse” (Connor and McCarthy, “Independent”) www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Avoidingcatastrophe.pdf

Positive feedbacks

• Reduced reflection of sunlight from polar ice• Water vapour and methane• Decomposition of organic carbon in soils• Ocean warming and slowing Gulf Stream

reduces CO2 absorption/causes its release

• Forest die-back and fires release more CO2

Greenhouse gas emissions still rising

US emissions

Australia’s emissions

Australia’s emissions 2005Sector 1990 2004 Change %

ChangeMt

CO2-eMtCO2

-eMtCO2

-e

1 Energy 287.5 387.2 99.7 34.70%

Stationary Energy 195.7 279.9 84.2 43.00%

Transport 61.7 76.2 14.5 23.40%

Fugitive Emissions 30 31 1 3.40%

2 Industrial Processes 25.3 29.8 4.5 18.00%

3 Solvent and Other Product Use (a)

NA NA NA NA

4 Agriculture 91.1 93.1 2 2.20%

5 Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry

128.9 35.5 -93.4 -72.50%

6 Waste 19.2 19.1 -0.1 -0.70%

Total net emissions 551.9 564.7 12.8 2.30%

Total emissions minus Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (b)

423 529.1 106.1 25.08%

Totals and percentages in table may not correspond exactly due to rounding.(a) All emissions from this sector are NMVOCs, which cannot be converted into CO2-e.

(b) My calculations from these data - KE. Included because sector 5 emissions peaked for other reasons in 1990, giving artificially inflated total for the baseline year.

We must make every effort• Revolutionise global economy• People’s survival will depend on it

February 08, 2005A family climbs to safety when their house is hit by a king tide in Betio, on the South Pacific island of Kiribati, in February, 2005. Waves peaked at 2.87 metres.

Set the targets we need

• A target fails if reaching us still gives us runaway global warming

• 60%, 80% emissions reductions targets by 2050, while requiring much effort, would still leave global emissions well above carbon sink capacity to absorb

• 60% reduction by 2020, 90% reduction by 2030 – probably needs to be greater

Ratify Kyoto and push for a stronger treaty

• 90% emissions reductions by 2030• Rich countries to do more – repaying

ecological debt (not charity). Help poor countries to develop sustainably.

• Take in environmental refugees

Cut emissions in every sector

Eliminate inefficiency & waste

• Stop waste of materials and energy

• Reduce demand – more efficient design

• No inbuilt obsolescence

• Zero waste economy

Say no to dirty fuel

• Phase out coal• No new coal

mines – revoke Anvil Hill licence

• No expansion of Newcastle’s export facilities

• No nukes!

Yes to renewables!

Large scale renewables could start cutting greenhouse pollution in as little as 15-20 months (Ian Lowe, Reaction Time, Quarterly Essay 27, 2007)

A new land use revolution

Go organic Save the forests

Revolutionise transport

Make the polluters pay

Public ownership and democratic control

Guarantee jobs, involve workers

Ensure participation and involvement of workers and communities affected by the transition to a sustainable economy

Change the system, not the climate

Useful references

• SA dossier on climate change http://www.socialist-alliance.org/resources/idb/AV%20Vol%207%20No%201.pdf

• Paul Baer and Michael Mastrandrea (High Stakes:Designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change) http://www.ippr.org/members/download.asp?f=%2Fecomm%2Ffiles%2Fhigh%5Fstakes%2Epdf

• www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Avoidingcatastrophe.pdf

• The 2° target http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/2degree.pdf

Authorised by D Nichols, 23 Abercrombie St, Chippendale NSW.