Climate Change in the Chehalis River and Grays Harbor Estuary · 2013. 4. 4. · (model A1FI,...
Transcript of Climate Change in the Chehalis River and Grays Harbor Estuary · 2013. 4. 4. · (model A1FI,...
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Climate Change in the Chehalis River and Grays Harbor Estuary
Prepared for the Chehalis Basin Habitat Work Group
February, 2013
Prepared by Wild Fish Conservancy Dr. Todd Sandell and Andrew McAninch
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Contents Anticipating the Effects of Climate Change ................................................................................... 2
1.1: Climate Change on the Global Scale ................................................................................... 2
1.2: Climate Change in the State of Washington ........................................................................ 8
1.3: Climate Change in the Chehalis River Basin and Grays Harbor Estuary .......................... 12
1.4: Effects of Climate Change on Salmon in the Chehalis River Basin .................................. 14
1.5: Modeling Sea Level Rise in the Grays Harbor Estuary ..................................................... 19
References ..................................................................................................................................... 41
Anticipating the Effects of Climate Change
1.1: Climate Change on the Global Scale
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC: 2007)
confirms the findings of earlier panels and predicts that ocean temperatures and sea
levels will continue to rise through the 21st century as a result of anthropogenic carbon
(CO2) production. From 1961-2003, global ocean temperatures have risen by 0.10°C
from 700m in depth to the surface (Figure 1; Pacific Northwest, USA circled in red); from
1993-2003, the rate of warming increased, but has slowed since 2003 (Bindoff et al.
2007). Global sea level rise increased during the 20th century at an average rate of 1.7 ±
0.5 mm/year (Figure 2), and there is evidence that this rate has accelerated in recent
years (1961-2003), with an average increase of 1.8 ± 0.5 mm/year. The increase in sea
level is primarily the result of two factors, the thermal expansion of warming sea water
(accounting for 0.4 ± 0.1 mm/year from 1963-2003; Figure 1) and the input of melt
water from glaciers, ice caps at the poles and the major ice sheets (Greenland and
Antarctica). For the more recent period of 1993-2003, the estimates are more precise
due to improved technology (mainly satellite observations of sea surface height) and the
contribution from thermal expansion (1.6 ± 0.5 mm/year) and melt water combined was
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2.8 ± 0.7 mm/year. However, these two factors (and other minor inputs deemed to be
inconsequential on the global scale) do not match the observed rise in sea levels; thus,
the models currently in use underestimate observed global sea level rise and therefore
lend uncertainty to predicted sea level rise by 2100. Of the several different predictive
models presented in the IPCC review, the model “A1B” is commonly cited as it
represents a moderate scenario for ocean warming and sea level rise. The A1B model
values for air temperature increase range from 1.7°C to 4.4°C (~3 to 8°F); for sea level
rise, the values range from 21cm to 48cm (Bindoff et al. 2007). The worst-case scenario
(model A1FI, calculated under a scenario of no significant reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions) predicts that air temperature will increase by 2.4 to 6.4°C (4.3 to 11.5°F) and
sea levels will rise from 26cm to 59cm.
Figure 1: Linear trends in the change of ocean heat content from 1955-2003.
Reproduced from the original 2007 IPCC report, where it was figure 5.2.
These effects, both observed and predicted, are not evenly distributed on the global
scale. The Pacific Ocean is characterized by warming, but recent cooling also occurred in some
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regions of the eastern Pacific, namely the region extending from 32°N to 48°N (note that Grays
Harbor is at ~47°N) (Figure 1; Pacific Northwest circled in red). This cooling may be the result of
a reversal in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Bindoff et al. 2007). Regional differences are
also apparent in the sea level data; in the Pacific Northwest, oceanographic factors including
shifts in ocean circulation (seasonal and annual) and atmospheric pressure associated with the El
Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Aleutian low (an area of low pressure that moves from the
Aleutian Islands into the Gulf of Alaska in the winter, influencing storm tracks) are largely
responsible (the IPCC report cites an approximately 10 mm rise and fall mean sea level during
the 1997–1998 ENSO event) (Bindoff et al. 2007). In the eastern Pacific Ocean (including along
the Pacific Northwest coast) sea level has declined in the short term (Figure 2), but is has still
risen in comparison with historical levels (“long-term trends”, Figure 3). It is important to note
that, due to the lack of data, the 2007 IPCC report models do not factor in the instability of the
major ice sheets, and as a result sea level rise may exceed the predictions of scenario A1B (Stocker
et al. 2010).
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Figure 2. (a) Geographic distribution of short-term linear trends in mean sea level (mm yr–1) for 1993
to 2003 based on TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry (updated from Cazanave and Nerem, 2004) and
(b) geographic distribution of linear trends in thermal expansion (mm yr–1) for 1993 to 2003 (based on
temperature data down to 700 m from Ishii et al., 2006). Modified from the original (Figure 5.15a from
the 2007 IPCC report); the Pacific Northwest is circled in red.
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Figure 3. (a) Geographic distribution of long-term linear trends in mean sea level (mm yr–1) for 1955
to 2003 based on the past sea level reconstruction with tide gauges and altimetry data (updated from
Church et al., 2004) and (b) geographic distribution of linear trends in thermal expansion (mm yr–1) for
1955 to 2003 (based on temperature data down to 700 m from Ishii et al., 2006). Note that colours in
(a) denote 1.6 mm yr–1 higher values than those in (b). Modified from the original (Figure 5.15b from
the 2007 IPCC report); the Pacific Northwest is circled in red.
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Along with these predictions, more general effects on climate are also noted. The
occurrence of extreme high tides, the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (which are likely to
generate greater storm surges), and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events are
all expected (Bindoff et al. 2007), though they will vary by region. Changes in ocean salinity have
also occurred, with the north Pacific Ocean (above 50°N) freshening (decreased salinity in the
upper 500m) due to the addition of melt water from glaciers and the Arctic ice cap, though
predictions of the extent of these changes are not available at this time, due in part to differing
effects at regional and local scales and uncertainty about the stability of ice sheets and the
Arctic ice cap (Bindoff et al. 2007; Stocker et al. 2010). Changes in precipitation are also
expected, with warmer air carrying more evaporated moisture from the subtropics towards the
poles in both hemispheres. Due to the increase in moisture, rainfall is expected to increase on
the windward slopes of mountain ranges in North America as the air is pushed upward by the
mountains, cools, and condenses. Precipitation during the cold season is expected to increase in
the northern Rocky, Cascade, and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges (up to 10%), though mean
annual precipitation may decline (Christensen et al. 2007). A decrease in snow depth (“snow
pack”) is also predicted despite increased winter precipitation, due to delays in autumn snowfall
and earlier spring snowmelt associated with generally warmer air temperatures. However, the
increased snowfall could “more than make up for” the shorter snow season and yield increased
snow accumulation in some regions (Christensen et al. 2007).
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Figure 4. Regional temperature anomalies for North America (Figure 11.11 in the
original 2007 IPCC report).
1.2: Climate Change in the State of Washington
In 2009, the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment Group issued a
report on climate change predictions for the state. Using higher resolution regional
models, they predicted an annual average increase in air temperature of 1.7°C (3.2°F)
by the 2040s and 2.9°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s (compared to temperatures from 1970-
1992) (Figure 4) (Littell et al. 2009). Sea level rise by the year 2100 is projected to be in
the range of 5-33cm (2-13 inches) under the moderate models for Washington state
(similar to the A1B global climate model), with the possibility of much larger increases
(as high as 89-127cm (35-50 inches)) if the Greenland ice sheets collapse, depending
on location. The report emphasizes that there will likely be substantial variation
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within different regions of the state caused by local winds (in western Washington,
typically higher on the coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca) and vertical land movement
(the Olympics mountains continue to rise as a result of plate tectonics at a rate of
~2mm per year (Huppert, Moore, and Dyson 2009). In comparison with the historical
average (1916-2000), spring snowpack (April 1st) is predicted to decrease statewide
by 28% by the 2020s, 59% by the 2040s, and 59% by the 2080s (Littell et al. 2009).
This is likely to cause significant changes in seasonal river and stream water flow,
particularly for “transient” river systems, where water is input as a mix of rain and
snowmelt (typically at moderate elevations, e.g. Yakima River), with expected
increases in total snowmelt and decreased summer flows (Figures 5, 6). “Snowmelt
dominant” systems (typically higher elevation basins or basins that have high
elevation headwaters (e.g. the Columbia River)), which receive most of their winter
precipitation as snow, will also be affected. State hydrological models predict that by
the 2080’s no snowmelt dominant systems will remain; ten formerly snowmelt
dominant basins at high elevations in the North Cascades will become transient
basins (Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2009; Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2010). The
final category, “rain dominant” river systems (e.g. coastal rivers, including the
Chehalis River), will be the least impacted, although an increase in the magnitude
and frequency of extreme winter precipitation events is predicted, which will increase
winter stream flows and may increase flooding (Figure 6). Finally, the regional, high
resolution climate models specific for Washington State suggest that some localities
may experience very different patterns in temperature and precipitation than those
predicted for western North America region by global climate models.
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Figure 5. Differences between a regional climate model (WRF) and a global climate model (CCSM3)
for projected changes in fall precipitation (September to November top) and winter temperature
(December to February, bottom) for the 2040s. The global model produces a regionally averaged
11.7% increase in precipitation, but the regional model provides more detail (top), projecting some
areas of increase (green) and some of decrease (brown) compared to the global model. Note that
large increases are seen on windward (west and southwest) slopes and smaller increases on leeward
(east and northeast) slopes. The global model produces a 3.6°F statewide averaged increase in winter
temperature, while the regional model produces a statewide average 2.6°F warming. There are greater
increases (darker red) at higher elevations and windward slopes, particularly the Olympic Mountains,
North Cascades, and central Cascades. These differences illustrate the value of regional climate
models for identifying sub-regional patterns and differences. The patterns of climate change differ
depending on the global model being downscaled (we present only one here); nevertheless, the local
terrain has a consistent influence on the results. (Figure 4 in the original 2009 WA climate report; page
7)
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Figure 6. Historical and projected future hydrographs for three rivers under the medium emissions
scenario (A1B). The Chehalis River represents a rain-dominated watershed, the Yakima River
represents a transient watershed (mixed rain and snow), and the Columbia River represents a
snowmelt-dominated watershed. Projected climate changes will influence the timing of peak stream
flow differently in different types of hydrologic basins. The timing of peak stream flow does not
change in rain-dominated basins because most of the precipitation falls as rain, both currently and in
the future, and is therefore available for runoff as it falls. Timing of peak flow shifts earlier as climate
warms in the transient and snowmelt-dominated basins because precipitation that historically fell as
snow later falls as rain – snowpack melting ceases to dominate the timing of peak flow as the
snowpack declines (Figure 6 in the original WA state climate report; page 9).
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1.3: Climate Change in the Chehalis River Basin and Grays Harbor Estuary
The predicted shifts in climate will have a number of effects on the Washington
coast:
1) Inundation. As the sea level rises (Mote, et al. 2008), the lowest lying
shores will be regularly flooded by high tides. Coastal inundation is a
gradual process on decadal time scales due to expanding volume of
ocean water (called eustatic SLR), melting of glaciers, and local factors
such as land subsidence and tectonic uplift (Snover et al., 2007).
2) Flooding. During major storm events, SLR will compound the effects of
storm surges, which can contribute to more extensive coastal flooding.
Also, changes in the seasonal pattern of rainfall or increased peak runoff
from snow melting could lead to more serious coastal flood events,
especially near rivers.
3) Erosion and Landslides. Although erosion on beaches and bluffs is a
natural, on-going process, major episodes of erosion often occur during
storm events, particularly when storms coincide with high tides. SLR will
exacerbate the conditions that contribute to episodic erosion events, and
this will accelerate bluff and beach erosion. Increased storm strength or
frequency will exacerbate this. Climate change is also likely to increase
winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, which can contribute to
landslides on bluffs saturated by rainfall or run-off.
4) Saltwater Intrusion. As the sea level rises, coastal freshwater aquifers will
be subject to increased intrusion by salt water.
5) Increased Ocean Surface Temperature and Acidity. As the atmosphere
warms, the ocean temperatures will increase. Additionally, absorption of
carbon dioxide by the oceans leads to increasing acidity (lower pH).
(Huppert, Moore, and Dyson 2009)
Here we will focus on changes in sea level, precipitation and stream flow, and the
likely effects on salmon in the Chehalis Basin and Grays Harbor estuary. The entrance
to Grays Harbor is within the northern part of the Columbia River littoral (nearshore)
cell; the plume of water from the Columbia extends North (particularly in winter) and,
historically, transported sediment into Grays Harbor. The construction of jetties at
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the mouths of the Columbia River and Grays Harbor limited this influx of sediment,
but did encourage rapid sediment accretion adjacent to the jetties through the
1950’s. However, since the construction of the hydropower system on the Columbia
River, sediment transport has been greatly reduced. The Southwest Washington
Coastal Erosion Project has identified several areas (“hot spots”) where erosion is a
concern, primarily caused by the loss of sediment transport, gradually rising sea
levels, and a northward shift in the tracks of winter storms (as a result of broader
global climate change). In the Grays Harbor area, these hot spots are just North of
the northern jetty (Ocean Shores) and at the north entrance of Willapa Bay, which
has lost an average of 19.7m (65 ft.) of beach per year since the 1880s (Huppert,
Moore, and Dyson 2009). If winter storms intensify, as predicted by the climate
models, coastal erosion will intensify. Previous efforts to limit erosion at Ocean
Shores are unlikely to reverse this trend:
“Ironically, shoreline armoring by sea walls, riprap, or revetments
typically decreases the volume of sediment available to sustain
beaches. Because wave energy reflected off coastal armor carries
sediment offshore, and the armoring itself reduces erosion of protected
bluffs, protected shores gradually lose sediment and shallow water
habitat (Johannessen and MacLennan, 2007, p.13.). The resulting
increased water depths and greater wave energy tends to weaken the
protective structures.” (Huppert, Moore, and Dyson 2009)
The interior of Grays Harbor (Willapa Bay is similar) is dominated by mud flats and is
relatively protected from high energy waves. However, the area occupied by mud flats in Grays
Harbor has declined, possibly due to the increased currents flowing through the jettied
entrance at the mouth, which allows more wave energy to enter the estuary.
Sea level rise will move the shoreline landward both within and outside of Grays Harbor.
Predictions for Washington state are given as relative sea level rise (rSLR) because in some areas
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(Olympic Peninsula) the land is rising, while in others (Puget Sound) it continues to fall; rSLR is
the difference between land movement and sea level rise. The area around Grays Harbor is
relatively stable, with less than 1mm/year of land elevation change (Huppert, Moore, and Dyson
2009). For the southern Washington coast (including Grays Harbor), rSLR is estimated to rise in
the range of 3-45cm (1-18”) by 2050 and by 6-108cm (2-43”) by 2100 (see Table 1, below) (Mote
et al. 2008). The authors note that the rSLR estimates are provided for advisory purposes and are
not actual predictions because the current models are not deemed fully reliable, the
probabilities have not been formally quantified, and SLR cannot be accurately predicted for
specific locations.
Table 1: Relative sea level rise (rSLR) projections under 3 different severity models for
major geographic areas of WA state (reproduced from Mote et al., 2008, where it
was Table 2)
By 2050 By 2100
SLR Estimate
NW Olympic Peninsula
Central & Southern
Coast
Puget Sound
NW Olympic
Peninsula
Central & Southern
Coast Puget Sound
Very Low -12cm (-5”) 3cm (1”) 8cm (3”) -24cm (-9”) 6cm (2”) 16cm (6”)
Medium 0 12.5cm (5”) 15cm (6”) 4cm (2”) 29cm (11”) 34cm (13”) Very High 35 cm (14”) 45cm (18”) 55cm (22”) 88cm (35”) 108cm (43”) 128cm (50”)
1.4: Effects of Climate Change on Salmon in the Chehalis River Basin
As has been frequently pointed out, salmon are affected by the various aspects of
climate change at every stage of their life cycle; however, these changes will have varying effects
on different stocks due to life history variation and location. The Washington Climate Impacts
Group (CIG) focused on “hydroclimate”: how seasonal low flows, stream temperatures during the
warmer months, and the timing and volume of peak flows due to climate change are likely to
impact salmon. Increasing stream temperatures are likely to reduce freshwater habitat,
particularly in summer, because salmon are stressed by water temperatures above ~17.4°C
(64°F), varying by species (Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2009). Average temperatures in excess
of 21°C (70°F) can pose a barrier to migration; prolonged exposure to temperatures at or above
this mark can be lethal in both adults and juveniles. Temperatures above 15°C (59°F) can also
place salmon at a competitive disadvantage with warm water species (both native and
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introduced, e.g. largemouth bass) and lead to higher predation. In the CIG report, areas where
predicted maximum weekly water temperatures exceeded the thermal limits for salmon were
classified as “lost habitat”; estimates ranged from 5-22% of salmon habitat lost statewide by
2090 under the various climate model scenarios used to predict warming (Mantua, Tohver, and
Hamlet 2009).
The amount and timing of stream flow is also a critical consideration for salmon.
Excessive flows can lead to stream bed scouring, removing spawning habitat for egg
deposition, as well as the loss of in-channel large woody debris that serves to mitigate
flow and provide a refuge for juveniles. The CIG report cites research by Battin (2007) in
the Snohomish River basin on spring/summer (ocean-type) Chinook salmon that found
projected extreme high flows would have the most deleterious effect on reproductive
success (Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2009). For coho salmon, freshwater survival was
most heavily affected by (1) in-stream temperatures during their first summer, in
combination with the availability of deep pools with cooler water at the bottom, and (2)
water temperatures during their second winter, combined with off-channel refugia (e.g.
beaver ponds, backwaters) that provided areas with warmer water and decreased flows.
The combination of reduced summer flows and increased water temperatures are thus
particularly problematic for coho salmon (Beechie et al. (1994) and Reeves et al. (1989),
cited in (Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2009)).
More generally, stocks of salmon with extended freshwater rearing periods will
be more sensitive to the predicted climate changes in freshwater (these include
steelhead and coho and fall (ocean type) Chinook salmon). Mortality rates for adult
salmon with summer spawning migrations are also expected to increase. In western
Washington, changes in the availability of quality rearing habitat due to warmer
temperatures is predicted to affect mainly summer and winter run steelhead and coho
salmon (Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2009). Because the Chehalis River is a rainfall
dominant system, alterations to the effect of seasonal snowpack and the hydrocycle
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(timing of runoff) are expected to be minimal (Figure 5, above) in comparison with
transient and snow-dominated basins in the state. Of the major tributaries, only the
Humptulips and (to a lesser extent) Satsop Rivers receive snowmelt from the Olympic
mountains; these rivers are expected to transition into fully rainfall dominant systems as
regional air temperatures increase as a result of climate change. The Chehalis basin is
predicted to have stressful (but not lethal) summer water temperatures by 2040 (Figure
5) (Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2009). In the tributaries, particularly those without cool
groundwater seepage and/or with decreased riparian tree cover as a result of logging or
other disturbances, summer water temperatures may rise into the critical zone for
salmon, rendering these areas unviable rearing grounds. The report recommends
mapping areas of thermal refugia as one of the key steps in anticipating climate change
and mitigating the effects on salmon.
Figure 7. August mean surface air temperature (colored patches) and maximum stream
temperature (dots) for 1970-1999 (left) and the 2040s (right, medium emissions scenario,
(A1B)). The area of favorable thermal habitat for salmon declines by the 2040s in western
Washington, and in eastern Washington many areas transition from stressful to fatal for
salmon. Circles represent selected stream temperature monitoring stations used for
modeling stream temperatures. (Figure 9 in the original report; (Mantua, Tohver, and Hamlet 2009))
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The CIG report did not specifically consider the effects of climate change on
Washington’s estuaries, and most of the IPCC studies on estuaries considered only those
bordering the Atlantic Ocean. However, studies on the Columbia River estuary and nearshore
(ISAB, 2007 and others) provide some information that pertains to Grays Harbor. Changes in the
volume and temperature of the river water entering the estuary will clearly modify the extent of
salt water intrusion and stratification in the estuary. Increased water flows in the winter (due to
predicted increases in precipitation) will likely lead to increased stratification, with the less dense
freshwater overlaying the denser salt/brackish component. However, a warmer ocean could also
result in a less dense salt wedge that would not intrude as far into the estuary. This may have
important ramifications for the location of the estuary turbidity maximum, the region at the
leading edge of the salt wedge characterized by high bacterial production and increased
concentrations of prey items utilized by juvenile salmon (e.g. harpacticoid copepods) (ISAB
2007).
Changes to the Chehalis River flow regime are also likely to modify the habitat
availability in the estuary. Low elevation sand and mud flats and floodplains are likely to be
inundated more frequently during the higher winter precipitation regimes predicted. In winter,
the amount of plant detritus flushed into the estuary from riparian and emergent marsh areas
could increase, providing more energy to the food web (though fewer salmon utilize the estuary
in winter). Reduced summer flows would have the opposite effect. Rising sea levels could offset
the increase in detrital input from tidal marsh and freshwater riparian areas by permanently
covering mud flats, which are detrital producers, reducing the net input of nutrients into the
estuarine food web. Only a significant increase in sediment transport would maintain the mud
and sand flats; this is unlikely under present scenarios (construction of a dam on the mainstem
Chehalis would further reduce sediment input into the estuary, accelerating the loss of mud and
sand flats). An increase in the strength and frequency of winter storm events, as predicted,
would lead to higher wind-driven wave energies along the coast and near the estuary mouth,
and could undercut terraces along the shoreline and undermine restoration projects that utilize
dredged sand (ISAB 2007).
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The effect of these changes on salmon in the estuary again varies by species and life
history, but some factors will affect all of the salmon species present. During the adult phase,
when salmon are returning to spawn, increased freshwater temperatures in the tributaries could
result in adults holding in the estuary awaiting cooler temperatures. This has been shown to
increase mortality due to stress and disease among salmon in B.C. (Johnson et al., 1996) and in
the Klamath River (OR and CA; California Department of Fish and Game 2003; cited in (ISAB
2007)). There are also a number of effects on juvenile salmon, primarily the result of
temperature. In Grays Harbor, juvenile Chinook salmon have the longest estuary residence times
(see the WFC Grays Harbor project annual reports), and an increase in water temperature would
affect their growth and metabolism, potentially increasing the demand for food and increasing
competition between salmon species, hatchery and wild salmon, and salmon and other fish
species (ISAB 2007). Warmer water temperatures may also reduce the influx of cool-water
species (e.g. herring, anchovy) into the estuary from the ocean in spring and summer. A
reduction in the number of baitfish that are of a similar size to smolts, but typically much higher
in abundance, may result in increased piscine and avian predation on juvenile salmon (ISAB
2007). An effort to model the effect of environmental conditions on juvenile coho salmon
marine survival (Logerwell et al. 2003) in the Oregon production area found that lower spring
sea level anomalies were correlated with increased coho survival in the nearshore. In this case,
reduced sea levels were the result of strong southward along-shore winds and currents
combined with offshore transport of the water mass, which leads to the upwelling of nutrient-
rich water to the surface and increases primary and secondary production (Logerwell et al. 2003).
Anticipating the effect of climate change was not part of this study, but higher sea levels,
changes in water temperature, salinity, and regional and global shifts in atmospheric and
oceanic circulation could alter the frequency and duration of upwelling events, negatively
impacting coho salmon.
The options for mitigating the effects of these are varied, but place salmon and people at
odds with one another over water usage. Since water temperature and stream flow are critical to
salmon survival, reducing alterations to these should be a priority. Management actions should
focus on “restoring floodplain functions that recharge aquifers, identifying and protecting
thermal refugia provided by ground-water and tributary inflows, undercut banks and deep
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stratified pools, and restoring vegetation in riparian zones that provide shade and complexity for
stream habitat. Restoring, protecting, and enhancing instream flows in summer are also key”
(Logerwell et al. 2003). Freshwater salmon habitat, particularly those areas that provide off-
channel refugia from high flows (in the lower Chehalis River, exemplified by the tidal surge plain)
need to be protected and enhanced. Other strategies include the retention of forest cover to
limit stream warming, particularly in riparian corridors, and reducing the expansion of
impervious surfaces that accelerate runoff and contribute to high flows (Booth and Jackson
1997, cited in (Logerwell et al. 2003)). As temperatures warm, thermal refugia are likely to
become restricted to headwater reaches during the summer; protection of these areas, as well as
reconnecting fish access by removal of barriers to passage (e.g. culverts) will be important. In the
estuary, increases in sea level will lead to inundation of lower elevation areas; planning for land
acquisition and protection of these sensitive areas, rather than disruptive alterations (e.g.
shoreline armoring, dikes, and levees) will be essential in helping offset habitat loss. Finally,
climate changes will alter the selective pressures among salmon species and life histories; those
utilizing spring or fall/winter for rearing, migration and spawning are likely to fair better than
those dependent upon doing so in summer, when temperatures will be at their peak and water
flows reduced. The changes predicted to occur by 2100 are rapid on the evolutionary time scale,
and salmon will be challenged to adapt. The maintenance of salmon life history diversity, a key
to resilience, is paramount.
1.5: Modeling Sea Level Rise in the Grays Harbor Estuary
To better understand what these predicted changes in sea level rise (SLR) will
mean for habitat availability in Grays Harbor in the future, we applied three different
scenarios of SLR to the tidal portions of the estuary. Preliminary sea level rise (SLR)
modeling was conducted using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), which
“simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions and shoreline
modifications during long-term sea level rise.” SLAMM uses a digital elevation model
(DEM) and National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) based habitat classification as the basis
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for its modeling. We used a 2009 Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) elevation model
of Grays Harbor that was flown by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
and obtained from the Puget Sound LIDAR Consortium. The Grays Harbor estuary was
previously modeled using SLAMM by Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. for Ducks
Unlimited in 2010; however, their analysis used the 10 meter DEM for the majority of the
harbor, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the model output in low relief areas. We
wanted to redo this modeling using the more accurate and precise LIDAR DEM (2009),
which has a one meter resolution cell size. The size of the DEM for the whole of the
Grays Harbor estuary was too large for the SLAMM software to process, so the DEM was
resampled to a 5m cell size so that the SLAMM software could process the data.
The National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) wetlands data were reclassified into
SLAMM categories using the classification described in the SLAMM technical
documentation, available at:
http://warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM6/SLAMM6_Technical_Documentation.pdf.
Since the SLAMM is designed to work with the NWI data, the model starts simulating
from the date that the NWI data was created, 1981, and uses recent, known sea level
rise (SLR) for the historic portion of the simulation. We chose to simulate three SLR
scenarios based on current predictions. First, we simulated the IPCC A1B maximum
scenario, which is 59cm sea level rise by 2100. Since current scientific opinion seems to
be in agreement that the IPCC predictions are low and it is likely that the actual SLR will
be significantly higher (due to rapid melting of ice sheets), we also simulated a rise of
75cm and 1 meter so that the projections are still applicable if SLR is higher than the
A1B scenario predicts (Figures 10 and 11, below). The changes in habitat area (hectares)
are summarized in Table 2 (below) as well as in Table 3, which shows the percentage
change in area.
The modeling that WFC performed was preliminary and has some limitations.
First, we did not delineate the existing dikes in Grays Harbor (particularly in the
http://warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM6/SLAMM6_Technical_Documentation.pdf
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Humptulips River flood plain) and therefore the model does not take these into account.
Additionally, the data set available did not include bathymetric (underwater) elevations
and therefore the model doesn't model habitat changes in the flats and open water
habitats very precisely. We will investigate the possibility of including these data, if they
are available with enough precision, in future reports. Second, the NWI data does not
perfectly match our study plan habitat classifications (e.g. NWI identifies both tidal and
freshwater swamps, while our simpler habitat categories may refer to these areas as
“forested”, as in much of the surge plain). As a disclaimer, the model outputs are only
projections and should not be used for specific predictions at any one area or point in
time.
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Figure 8: Grays Harbor estuary initial habitat classifications from the 1981 National Wetland Inventory study (1981)
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Figure 9a: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2025 under the IPCC projection A1Bmax sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 9b: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2050 under the IPCC projection A1Bmax sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 9c: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2075 under the IPCC projection A1Bmax sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 9d: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2100 under the IPCC projection A1Bmax sea level rise
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Figure 10a: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2025 with an increase of 75cm in sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 10b: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2050 with an increase of 75cm in sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 10c: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2075 with an increase of 75cm in sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 10d: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2100 with an increase of 75cm in sea level rise
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Figure 11a: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2025 with an increase of 100cm in sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 11b: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2050 with an increase of 100cm in sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 11c: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2075 with an increase of 100cm in sea level rise by 2100
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Figure 11d: Estimated habitat changes in Grays Harbor estuary in 2100 with an increase of 100cm in sea level rise
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Table 2: Comparison of habitat area (in hectares) in the Grays Harbor estuary under varying
model predictions of sea level rise (SLR). The A1B model (~59cm SLR max) is the
moderate climate change scenario from the 2007 IPCC report; also shown are changes
if sea level rises 75cm and 100cm by 2100 in comparison to the 1981 data.
Table 3: Comparison of percent change in habitat areas in the Grays Harbor estuary under
varying model predictions of sea level rise (SLR). The A1B model (~59cm SLR max) is
the moderate climate change scenario from the 2007 IPCC report; also shown are
changes if sea level rises 75cm and 100cm by 2100 compared to 1981 data. Both the
NWI habitat categories and the approximate equivalent habitat from our sampling plan
are provided. Note that percent changes >100% are listed as multiples (e.g. “3x”);
percentages of less than 100% indicate a net loss in that habitat type.
Area in Hectares (Ha)
NWI habitat categories 1981 (Ha) A1B (Ha) % of 1981 75cm (Ha) % of 1981 1 m (Ha) % of 1981
Dry Land 32,788.9 28,802.9 88 28,665.2 87 28,101.0 86
Nontidal Swamp 1,544.0 660.3 43 635.7 41 529.2 34
Inland Fresh Marsh 788.3 355.6 45 346.3 44 306.1 39
Tidal Fresh Marsh 327.3 36.2 11 31.6 10 18.3 6
Transitional Marsh / Scrub Shrub 13.9 3,692.6 26532 3,671.4 26380 2,773.4 19928
Regularly Flooded Marsh (Saltmarsh) 1,109.5 2,674.1 241 2,873.3 259 4,523.6 408
Estuarine Beach 265.3 179.6 68 176.9 67 131.4 50
Tidal Flat 14,926.6 2,481.3 17 2,489.4 17 2,554.7 17
Inland Open Water 106.3 56.4 53 55.2 52 51.7 49
Riverine Tidal Open Water 656.5 49.3 8 48.8 7 45.9 7
Estuarine Open Water 8,664.5 22,260.0 257 22,274.4 257 22,392.1 258
Irregularly Flooded Marsh 408.7 2,497.6 611 2,487.8 609 2,361.5 578
Inland Shore 67.6 61.6 91 61.1 90 52.5 78
Tidal Swamp 2,209.3 69.2 3 59.7 3 35.2 2
Sea Level Rise
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Note that in Table3 we provide the rough equivalent of the NWI habitats from our habitat
categories. Several of these are fairly clear (e.g. “tidal flat” is equivalent to our sand and mud
flats), but the “estuary open water” category from the NWI classifications is not easily broken
down into areas of depth (open water) and those shallower areas that are likely to support
aquatic vegetation beds, which are productive and critical for juvenile fish. Hopefully the
inclusion of bathymetric data in the future will help resolve these two categories.
Several trends are immediately obvious from the changes depicted in figures 8-11. In the
central estuary and North Bay (and to a lesser extent South Bay), there will be extensive loss of
low elevation tidal mud and sand flats (roughly 83% lost; Table 3) (Figure 12). Under the A1B
scenario this is predicted to occur by 2075; under the 75cm and 1 meter scenarios, by 2050.
Both Goose and Sand Islands are submerged by increasing sea levels by 2100 (A1B and 75cm
scenarios) or 2075 (1 meter scenario). In the inner estuary zone, the extensive mud flats around
Moon Island (near the airport) and Rennie Island are submerged by 2075 in all three scenarios,
although inundation of Rennie Island itself is not predicted. The area of the Grays Harbor
National Wildlife Refuge (USFWS), adjacent to Moon Island, fares better, though some area will
still be lost. Note that maintenance of mud and sand flats is dependent upon sediment
deposition in the estuary; if the dam currently under discussion for the Chehalis River near
Amount of change
NWI habitat categories Our Habitat Category A1B 75cm 1m
Dry Land Dry Land 88% 87% 86%
Nontidal Swamp Forest 43% 41% 34%
Inland Fresh Marsh Scrub/Shrub Cover 45% 44% 39%
Tidal Fresh Marsh High Emergent Marsh 11% 10% 6%
Transitional Marsh / Scrub Shrub Scrub/Shrub Cover 265x 263x 199x
Regularly Flooded Marsh (Saltmarsh) High Emergent Marsh 2.4x 2.6x 4.1x
Estuarine Beach Cobble/gravel/Sand beach 67.7% 66.7% 49.5%
Tidal Flat Mud Flat/Sand Flat 16.6% 16.7% 17.1%
Inland Open Water Open Water 53.1% 51.9% 48.6%
Riverine Tidal Open Water Open Water 7.5% 7.4% 7.0%
Estuarine Open Water Aquatic Vegetation Beds? 2.5x 2.6x 2.6x
Irregularly Flooded Marsh High Emergent Marsh 6x 6.1x 5.8x
Inland Shore 91.2% 90.4% 77.7%
Tidal Swamp Forest 3.1% 2.7% 1.6%
Sea Level Rise
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Interstate Highway 5 is constructed, these habitats will be lost more quickly due reduced
downstream transport of sediment into the estuary.
Figure 12: Map of the Gray Harbor estuary, showing the sampling zones defined in the WFC
annual reports.
In the surge plain (Figure 12), the predicted changes in SLR will result in a rapid transition
from forested tidal swamp to irregularly flooded marsh by 2025 even in the most conservative
scenario (A1B); the net loss of forested area is predicted to be severe (~97% for the estuary as a
whole; Table 3). Many of the trees in this area will be claimed by the rising water levels and,
potentially, increased intrusion of the salt water wedge into the lower Chehalis River (the
changes in the extent of salt wedge intrusion are not covered by the model and are an area of
uncertainty). Under the higher SLR predictions, the area around Cosmopolis (currently protected
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by tide gates) will also transition from dry land to transitional marsh by 2025 (all scenarios) and
eventually to tidal fresh water marsh (by 2050 under the 75cm scenario and between 2025 and
2050 under the 1 meter scenario). Aberdeen is predicted to undergo similar, but less dramatic,
transition, with transitional marsh beginning to appear around 2050 under the 1 meter scenario.
In North and South Bays, SLR will have less dramatic effects. Some areas of tidal flats will be
lost and there will be a reduction in the amount of forested area in the headwaters of the Elk
and Johns Rivers. However, most of these areas are expected to transition from one type of
marsh currently present (e.g. tidal fresh or transitional marsh) to salt marsh. In the estuary as a
whole, rising sea levels are predicted to dramatically increase the amount of the various types of
marsh land; for transitional marsh (scrub/shrub cover), over 200-fold; for regularly flooded salt
marsh, 2.5-4 fold; for irregularly flooded marsh, roughly 6 fold under all scenarios (Table 3). The
increase in salt water levels will result in a decrease in freshwater marsh habitat, with inland fresh
water marsh declining to ~45% of 1981 levels and tidal fresh marsh declining to roughly 10% of
1981 levels (Table 3).
Near the estuary mouth, the most noticeable changes will occur at Damon Point and the
Point Brown marsh (at the southern tip of Ocean Shores). The area of dry land at Damon Point
will decline under all scenarios by 2100, and almost no dry land will remain by 2100 under the 1
meter SLR scenario. The Point Brown marsh will transition from a majority of salt marsh (1981) to
a mix of salt marsh and transitional marsh by 2075 (A1B scenario) and by 2050 under the 75 cm
and 1 meter scenarios. The beach at Half Moon Bay, across the estuary mouth (southern shore),
will also be reduced and the dunes there may be subjected to increased wave energy and tidal
currents as SLR increases, potentially destabilizing the area (Scavia et al. 2002).
These changes will result in complex alterations in habitat availability and productivity for
the estuarine food web that are difficult to anticipate. Shellfish production will be adversely
impacted by the decline in the area of mud flats of appropriate depth (as well as by changes in
ocean acidification and other factors which are beyond the scope of this report). Bird species
reliant on estuaries will also be impacted, and in Grays Harbor, chick rearing areas on Sand
Island will eventually be inundated. Two important habitat types for juvenile salmon and other
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fishes, eelgrass and aquatic vegetation beds, will also be altered, although the short-term
changes (prior to 2050) may not be negative (“eelgrass” is not a specific habitat type in the NWI
classification). A modeling study of eelgrass beds (and accessibility for feeding by the Brandt
goose) in Willapa Bay found that the area of eelgrass beds was likely to increase in the coming
decades as low elevation mud flats were inundated, providing habitat for eelgrass to occupy.
However, the long term outlook was for an eventual decline in the area available for eelgrass as
water depths increased and the waterline advanced to dikes (already in place), preventing the
formation of new shallow water areas optimal for eelgrass growth (Shaughnessy et al. 2012).
A review of climate change impacts on U.S. coastal ecosystems was conducted in 2002,
prior to the recent IPCC (2007) report; though the outlook has changed, with many climate
indices “ahead” of the predictions (e.g. ice sheet melting), several of their recommendations
remain valid. The preservation of estuarine habitats is essential for the species that depend on
them for survival, so it is critical that as sea level rises, new areas of habitat are available as the
waterline migrates landward. Extensive armoring of shorelines (dikes, levees, etc.) against sea
level rise may prevent this process from occurring, leading to the loss of wetlands and
undermining the biological and chemical processes that allow estuaries to be such productive
ecosystems (Scavia et al. 2002). To this end, development of vulnerable areas should be
prevented or discouraged, and setback lines from the coast and wetland margins should be
increased. Another option is the establishment of “rolling easements” which allow for
development that does not lead to the destruction of wetlands and beaches and are adjusted
according to local sea level rise over time.
For salmonids in particular, management strategies will also have to adapt. In theory,
harvest management is designed to produce sustainable yields, which are directly linked to the
productive capacity of the environment. As the environment is altered by climate change in
ways that do not favor salmon recruitment (e.g. warmer water temperatures, loss of thermal
refugia, decreased summer stream flows, etc.), harvest must be adaptively managed to maintain
sustainability. Exploitation and environmental change must be considered together to produce
strategies that allow these fish populations to remain sustainable (Scavia et al. 2002). As run
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timing becomes increasingly important to offset increases in fresh water temperature, the
maintenance of salmon life history diversity will be critical. Stocks that return to spawn in the
summer or early fall will be most adversely affected; others will fare better in the Chehalis
system.
The scenarios predicted by climate change are sobering. However, advanced planning and
informed management provide solutions that can at least mitigate these changes and help
preserve the essential habitats that estuarine species rely upon. In Grays Harbor, shorelines
(particularly the southern shoreline, which overall has more areas at low elevation), the surge
plain, and the areas around the various sloughs and tributaries are most likely to be impacted by
sea level rise and as such should receive sustained attention. The creation of protected areas
(through a combination of public and private ownership) in as many of these regions as possible
should be a priority, with the goal of allowing increased inundation to lead to the formation of
new wetland habitats. Several areas in Grays Harbor already benefit from such arrangements;
much of the Johns River is protected as state land (WDFW), much of the area around the mouth
of the Humptulips River is owned by the Grays Harbor Audubon Society and WDFW, and a large
portion of South Bay is also protected by WDFW, the Washington Department of Natural
Resources, and Grays Harbor county.
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