Climate change impacts on water resources in the southeastern U.S. – Can we adapt?
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Climate change impacts on water resources in the southeastern
U.S. – Can we adapt?
Peter CaldwellUSDA Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat
Assessment Center
Raleigh, NC
SWPBA Annual Meeting, November 2011
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Climate change- The scientific basis
IPCC AR4, 2007
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Unprecedented rate of change
IPCC AR4, 2007
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The evidence of change
IPCC AR4, 2007
Temperature
Sea level
Snow cover
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IPCC AR4, 2007
“Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced” USGCRP, 2009
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Change
Variability
Variability v. Change
Bottom of Hill (current climate)
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USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009
Precipitation
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USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009
Temperature
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Extremes: Drought
USGCRP, 2009
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Extremes: Heavy precipitation
USGCRP, 2009
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Global Circulation ModelsCoupled land &
atmosphere modelsGlobal coverageCoarse resolution
(e.g. 2° - ~100x100 km)
Have BiasesSpatial resolutionModel
parameterizationScale not appropriate
for impact studies
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Bias correction and downscaling
Maurer, 2009
2° resolution(100x100 km)
1/8° resolution(12x12 km)
Dynamic or
statistical downscalin
g
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Emission scenarios
IPCC AR4, 2007
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Predicted global temperature
IPCC AR4, 2007
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Temperature changes
IPCC AR4, 2007
A1B Scenario, change in temp from 1900-1950 mean, multi-model mean and range
A1B Scenario, change in temperature from 1980-1999 by 2080-2099, multi-model mean
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Precipitation changes
Annual precipitation changeNumber of models
predicting increased precipitation
IPCC AR4, 2007
A1B Scenario, change in precipitation from 1980-1999 by 2090-2099, multi-model mean
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Key Issues for the SoutheastHeat-related stresses for people, plants,
and animalsDecreased water availabilitySea-level rise, likely increase in hurricane
intensity and storm surgeEcological thresholds likely to be crossed
throughout the region
USGCRP, 2009
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US Forest Service: A Legacy Water Resources ManagementOrganic Act of 1897
“…securing favorable conditions of water flows…”Weeks Law of 1911
“…..regulation of the flow of navigable streams or for the production of timber.”
Sustained Yield Forest Management Act of 1944“….. maintenance of water supply, regulation of stream
flow, prevention of soil erosion, amelioration of climate, and preservation of wildlife.”
National Forest Management Act of 1976“…multiple use and sustained yield of the products and
services obtained…the coordination of outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, wildlife and fish, and wilderness.”
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The future of USFS water resources management
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Supply Demand
Climate Landuse change Population
ReservoirGW Infrastructure
Economics
J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 44:1441 – 1457, 2008
Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) Model
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Water BalanceET = f(PET, LAI, PPT, SM)Q = PPT – ET +/- DS
Carbon BalanceGEP = f(ET)Re = f(GEP)NEE = Re - GEP
BiodiversityBIO = f(ET)-Birds -Amphibians-Reptiles -Trees-Mammals -Vertebrates
PPT
ET
Q
GEP
Re
Watershed and Land Cover Based
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Climate and Population Scenarios
Baseline (2001-2010) vs. Future (2051-2060)
Climate Scenario
Precipitation
PET
CSIROMK2-B2 14%CSIROMK3.5-
A1B5% 11%
HADCM3-B2 7% 15%MIROC32-A1B 8% 19%
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Simulated 2001-2010 water yield
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Predicted trend in water yield
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Wat
er Y
ield
(mm
)
(b)
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Predicted trend in water yield2011-2060
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Simulated 2001-2010 streamflow
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Predicted change in flow by 2051-2060
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Change in water demand by 2051-2060
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Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI)
Water Stress: Average annual WaSSI ≥ 0.4
• United Nations (Raskin et al., 1997)• World Water Council (Alcamo, 2000; Cosgrove &
Rijsberman, 2000)• Vörösmarty et al., 2000
WaSSI =Demand
Surface + Groundwater Supply
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Mean WaSSI in 2051-2060
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Predicted trend in mean annual stream temperature 2010-2060, mean among four scenarios
Stream temperature changes
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Sediment delivery changes
Predicted change in rainfall erosivity (R) by 2050
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What can we do? Mitigate
Reduce carbon emissionsEnhance carbon sequestration
AdaptEnhance ecosystem resilienceEnhance infrastructure resilienceEmbrace uncertainty
“If mitigation is about carbon, then adaptation will be about water”