Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist...
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Transcript of Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist...
![Page 1: Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022032523/56649d845503460f94a6a2e2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources
Steven McNulty, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist
USDA Forest Service
Raleigh, NC
![Page 2: Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022032523/56649d845503460f94a6a2e2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Global change impacts range from the certain to the unknown
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Certain change
Atmospheric CO2 is increasing and will continue to increase for the foreseeable future due to human emissions of fossil fuel and land clearing
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Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
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Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
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![Page 7: Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022032523/56649d845503460f94a6a2e2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Very Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests
Increased Population
Increased Fire Fuel loads
Increased Air Temperature
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Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
![Page 9: Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022032523/56649d845503460f94a6a2e2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
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“..model estimates that take into account both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with observations over this period”
Stott et al, Science 2000
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Simulated Temperature over the US
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
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Total Population 1990 (NPA)
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Total Population 2045 (NPA)
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Increase (%) in Population from 1990 to 2045 (NPA)
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Total Down Woody Material (Mg/ha)for mixed hardwood & coniferous tree species
based on 2001-2002 FIA P3 county data
Note: two counties have no data available (depicted in white)
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Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests(with and without climate change)
Inter-annual precipitation variability
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Percent of the continental US with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events more than 2 inches
Karl et al. 1996
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Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests(with and without climate change)
Water supply Stress
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Water Demand (Use)
12%
8%
39%
41%Domestic
Industrial
ThermoEle
Irrigation
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Water Availability
Supply Demand
Climate Land use change
Population
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Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI)
WSSI = Total water demand from all sectors –rechargeTotal water supply (PPT + ground water)
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Change in Water Stress (WSSIR)
to assess relative change in WSSI between the base year water stress (1990) and another year water stress
100*)1)( -WSSI1990
WSSIdWSSIRd =
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Georgia Water Stress
• Hot/Dry year (2043) with ground water available
• Hot/Dry year (2043) without ground water available
• Warm/Wet year (2045) with ground water available
• Warm/Wet year (20450 without ground water available
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Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043
Hot dry year
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Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043
Hot dry year
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Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045
Warm wet year
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Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045
Warm wet year
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Water Supply Stress Index for 2045
wet year with groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045wet year with groundwater
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Water Supply Stress Index for 2045
wet year with NO groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045 wet year with NO groundwater
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Water Supply Stress Index for 2043dry year with groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043 dry year with groundwater
![Page 38: Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022032523/56649d845503460f94a6a2e2/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Water Supply Stress Index for 2043 dry year with NO groundwater
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WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043 dry year with NO groundwater
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Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests(with and without climate change)
Extended growing season and warming
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The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.
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PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario (2000)
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PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario (2025)
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PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario (2050)
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PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario
Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2000)
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PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario
Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2025)
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PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario
Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2050)
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Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia 1993 - 2040: No Climate Change Baseline
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Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia by 2040 with Had2CMSul Climate Change
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> 25% DECLINE
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline
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Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
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Unlikely Impacts In Southeastern Forests(dependent of climate change)
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Slash pine
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Loblolly pine
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Sweetgum
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Longleaf pine
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Unknown Impacts In Southeastern Forests(dependent of climate change)
Increasing CO2 on forest growth
Insect and disease impacts
Integrated stress impacts