Climate change impact on groundwater resources of lahore by using swat model

Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Resources of Lahore by using SWAT

MODEL

By

Sadam Hussain

Iqra Muzaffar

Under the supervision of

Prof. Dr. Ifthikhar Ahmad

Ms. Zaib-un-Nisa

A Thesis submitted for the Partial Fulfillment

of the requirement for the degree of

Master in Applied Hydrology

College of Earth & Environmental Science,

University of the Punjab, Lahore

Session 2013-2015

Dedication

We dedicate our thesis to our beloved parents and respected teachers

epecially to Ms ZAIB.

Certificate of Approval

This thesis by Sadam Hussain & Iqra Muzaffar is hereby approved for submission to the University of the Punjab, Lahore for the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master in Applied Hydrology.

Prof. Dr. Firdous-e-Bareen Prof. Dr.IftikharAhmadPrincipal ProfessorCollege of Earth and College of Earth and Environmental Sciences. Environmental Sciences, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, University of the Punjab, Lahore University of Punjab Lahore

Ms Zaib-un-Nisa Lecturer College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Quaid-e-Azam Campus, University of the Punjab, Lahore

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

All Praises for ALLAH ALMIGHTY, the most beneficent and most merciful. The

source of all knowledge that guides us in darkness and help in difficulties. He bestowed us with a

potential and ability to contribute a little knowledge to mankind.

We thank to our beloved Holy Prophet (peace be upon him) who gave us ALLAH’s

message in the form of Quran that guide us in each and every way of life.

We wish to express our heartiest gratitude to Prof.Dr Firdous-e- Bareen, Principal

College of College of Earth and Environmental Sciences for her invaluable support.

We gratefully acknowledgment our profound, cordial, and sincere thanks to our respected

and honorable teacher and supervisor Dr.Iftikhar and Miss Zaib-un-Nisa for permitting us to do

our M.Sc. research work on our requested topic. We feel a great honor to work under their

supervision their guidance made possible completion of this thesis.

We would like to thank all the officials and staff of CEES, for their help and support

during our thesis.

Acknowledge would not be complete unless we acknowledge our family members,

especially our parents, sisters and brother who encouraged us taking pledge and we mustered up

the focus of finding facts as ALLAH says ,” There are signs for those who thank and

understand.”

Sadam Hussain

Iqra Muzaffar

CLIMATE IMPACT ON GROUNDWATER REaSOURCES

Abstract

Pakistan is a developing country and its population is, according to World Bank (2013),

182.1 million from which about 76% of total population lives in the rural areas. The most of the

economy based on agriculture. Hydrologic cycle is conceptually represented by hydrologic

models. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model which spatially

distributed and continuous time.

Lahore is subject to adversely affected by climate change on groundwater resources. The

global warming since 1990’s has decreased the annual precipitation and winter precipitation. The

impact of the change in climate in ground water resources is evaluated in the Lahore.

Hydrological modeling was organized with SWAT model which was calibrated and validated

successfully. According to the simulation results, almost all the water budgets components have

decreased. SWAT was able to allocate less land use water because of the decrease of overall

water due to climate change. He simulation results show an increase of water stressed days and

temperature stressed days. The results indicate that lack of water is expected to be a problem in

future.

A set of programmable mapping component MapWindow GIS is used which is an open

source, GIS based mapping application. It is SWAT used spatially distributed information on

elevation, land use, slope and soil. Soil-check is used which have climate information to obtain

results. 8-years data is used for warm-up model and rest of the 16-years data is used to run

model. SWAT cup is used for the validation and simulation of the results. By the use of

improved results, climate change scenarios could be run for future management changes and

their impact on ground water resources quantified.

Chapter One Introduction

Chapter One

INTRODUCTION

1.1. Pakistan

Pakistan is a sovereign country in South Asia with a population exceeding 180

million people. It is sixth most populous country with an area covering 796,096 km2, ,it is

the 36th largest country in the world in terms of area. Pakistan has a 1,046-kilometre

(650 mi) coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is

bordered by the nations of India to the east, Afghanistan to the west, Iran to the southwest

and China in the far northeast respectively. It is separated from Tajikistan by

Afghanistan's narrow Wakhan Corridor in the north, and also shares marine

border with Oman.

The administrative units of Pakistan consist of four provinces, one federal

capital territory, two autonomous and disputed territories and a group of federally

administered tribal areas

Province:

Punjab

Sindh

Baluchistan

Khyber pakhtunkhwa

1


2


Fig:1.1 Pakistan Map

1.2. Punjab

Punjab is the most populous province of Pakistan with approximately 56% of the

country's total population. Punjab is Pakistan's second largest province in terms of Land

area at 205,344 km2 (79,284 sq mi) after Baluchistan and is located at the north western

edge of the geologic Indian plate in South Asia. The province is bordered

by Kashmir (Azad Kashmir, Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir, India) to the north-east,

the Indian states of Punjab and Rajasthan to the east, the Pakistani province of Sindh to

the south, the province of Baluchistan to the southwest, the province of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa to the west, and the Islamabad Capital Territory to the north.

The capital and largest city is Lahore which was the historical capital of the wider

Punjab region. Undivided Punjab is home to six rivers, of which five flows through

Pakistani Punjab. From west to east, these are: the Indus, Jhelum, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej.

Nearly 60% of Pakistan's population lives in the Punjab.

1.3. Lahore

Lahore is the capital city of the Pakistani province of Punjab, the second largest

metropolitan area in the country and an important historical center in South Asia.

Lahore has a semi-arid climate.

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1.4. Population of Lahore

According to the 1998 census, Lahore's population was 5.143 Million. An

estimate in July 2014 put the population of the Lahore agglomeration at 7,566,000. [2] It is

considered to be one of the 35 largest cities of the world.

1.5. Walled city Lahore

The origins of the original Lahore are unspecific. According to carbon dating

evidence of archaeological findings in the Lahore Fort, the time period may start as early

as 2,000 BCE. Lahore had many names throughout its history. Mohallah Maulian

represents one of the two most probable sites of the original Lahore. Sootar Mandi (the

yarn market) inside Lohari Gate, had been called Mohallah Chaileywala Hammam

located in Machli Hatta Gulzar, just off Chowk Chalka. As late as 1864, the Lohari

Mandi area had been known among the old folk of the Walled City as kacha kot, the mud

fort, a name derived from gradient of the land, the water flow, and the formation of

mohallahs, kuchas, and kattrahs. The curve of Koocha Pir Bola merges with Waachowali

Bazaar, the Lohari Bazaar merges with Chowk Lohari Mandi, and Chowk Mati merges

with Papar Mandi, giving a sense of a mud fort. Along Lohari Bazaar, a short distance

from Chowk Chakla, the street opens slightly, revealing a half-buried archway of pucca

bricks and mud

The famous mud fort may have been built by Malik Ayaz, the first Muslim

governor of Lahore. Lohari Gate served as the main entrance to Ayaz's mud fort. Chowk

Sootar Mandi constituted one important center of Kacha Kot. The lay of the streets also

suggest the boundaries. At the time of Mughal Emperor Akbar, the original wall of the

Walled City of Lahore stood, on the western side, to the right of Bazaar Hakeeman in

Bhati Gate. On the eastern side to the left of Shahalam Gate, curved eastwards and

formed a "kidney-shaped" city that depended on the flow of the curving River Ravi. Thus

the Lahore of the kacha kot era has continued to expand in three major leaps of

expansion, each with an almost 400-year gap. The eras of Raja Jaipal of Akbar and of

Maharaja Ranjit Singh mark the high points of that expansion.

The expanding of the mud fort had its origins in three factors:

4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahore#cite_note-agglomeration-2


the way the Ravi has flown and how and when it has been changing its

course,

the existence of the Lahore Fort and how power has flowed from the

rulers, and

the manner the population and economy of the old original Walled City

has changed over time, grown, or even shrunk, depending of invasions, droughts and

famines in the countryside.

Wells change:

About 40-50 years the River Ravi, when passed through walled city Lahore, then

there the wells were shallow types. About 50 feet deep the water can be availed. But now

there the dig wells are of deep types for water availability.

1.6. Physiographic features

Lahore is situated on the flat alluvial plain at the average attitude of 702 feet

above sea level. Parts of the city are situated at a high slightly higher level of mounds of

the debris of former cities. The municipal area of Lahore is 128 square miles. The area

under the jurisdiction of Lahore Development Authority which may be called the greater

Lahore area is 390 square miles.

Fig:1.2 Map Of Lahore

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1.7. Climate of Lahore

The climate of Lahore city is very healthy and salubrious. Except for some days

in the summer, Lahore is a pleasant place to live.

There are two main seasons, namely the winter and the summer. The winter

season starts from October to April and the summer starts from April to October.

From the 1st of October to the 15th of November is the autumn when the winter is

expected and it is neither hot nor cold. It is the spring season. The weather of Lahore

changes with change in direction of sun.

Fig:1.3 Sun Shine

The winter proper starts for three months from the 15th November to 15th

February. The minimum temperature observed in Lahore is -2.2c recorded on 16,17 Jan

1935. The summer starts from the 1st of April but till the 15th of May temperature are not

very high.

Real summer begins from around 15th May and lasts till the 1st of July. The

maximum temperature recorded 48.3c on 30 June 1944.There are occasional dust storms

which lower the temperature.

6


Fig:1.4 Temperature

The rainy season begins in July and lasts till September. The severest rainfall in Lahore

observed during 24 hours is 221 mm (8.7inches) on 13 August 2008.

In September the pinch of summer is over and the nights become cool.

Average rainfall in Lahore is 20 inches a year. The heaviest rainfall was in 1882when

37.43 inches of rain was recorded.

The most intensive recorded could burst in Lahore occurred on 24th September

1954 when there was 9 inches of rainfall in 24 hours. The monsoons are their peak during

July and August, and during these two months there is more than one half of the annual

rain fall. October and November are the driest months and the average rainfalls during

these months is about one third of an inch only.

There are winter rains during December February, the average rainfall during these

months being 3 inches.

7


Fig:1.5 Rain Fall

From November to May the predominant wind direction is from north – west and

west. From June to August the wind direction is from southeast and southwest. During

September and October the wind is in a state of fun and keeps changing its direction.

Humidity

The humidity in Lahore gets its peak value in the months of July and August. In

the April and May month its value attains minimum value. In October its value is

moderate whereas in December and January it gets high comparatively.

8


Fig:1.6 Humidity

9


1.8. Soil of Lahore

On the basis of Field Protocol NASA (2005), the soil was physically characterized

by performing field testing. Samples collected from various locations, show

different properties. The soil structure is mostly composed of granular type,

however, at few places it is platy type. The consistency of the surface soil is graded as

friable. The presence of carbonate contents is reflected by most of the samples. The soil

can be classified as silty clay.

The major mineral composition for Lahore soil is Quartz, Muscovite and

Clinochlore, which shows that the alluvial deposit received sediments from metamorphic

origin.

The soil of Lahore area is composed of alluvial material. Which was carried from

the Himalayan ranges by tributaries of the vast Indus river system. They are reddish-

brown to grayish brown, mostly moderately coarse and medium texture soil containing

high percentage of fine to very fine sand and the salt of Lahore area is underline by

unconsolidated alluvial deposits of quaternary age. The alluvial sands constitute. The

aquifer material under Lahore.

Beds of gravel and very coarse sand are uncommon within the sand at many

places. Concretions of secondary origin locally known as kankar` may be found in

association with fine sediments. Clay and salt formation occurs as discontinuous layers

with limited lateral extent and thickness generally less than 5 meters. However, their

thickness may very between 1 to 20 meters.

In spite of heterogenic nature of alluvial complex groundwater occurs underwater

table condition. The aquifer is high transmissive with hydraulic conductivity ranging from

37.2 to 73.4 m/d. on the basis of aquifer test performed in the vicinity of project area of

Lahore , the value of specific yield has been estimated as ranging from 0.1 to 0.26.

however values determines through nuclear moisture probe in various parts of Punjab

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plain show higher values applicable for long term pumpage.

1.9 Study Area

The study area is Lahore. Lahore is the heart of Punjab province of Pakistan. It is

the second biggest city in Pakistan. One of the most densely inhabited cities in the world.

Lahore remains focal point for economical political, transportation, entertainment and

educational aspects. Study area having following features:

Lahore city is present near by the Sheikhupura district north and west,

India on east and Kasur district on south.

The Ravi river is flowing from the north of the Lahore

Lahore city having area of 1772km2

Lahore city is present in latitude 31’15’ and 31’45’ in the north and

longitude 74’01’ and 74’39’ in east.

The elevation of Lahore from mean sea level 217m about 712 feet

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Fig:1.7 Study Area (Lahore)

Objectives

To develop hydrological model

Using the available input data (DEM, land use, soil data and climate data)

to predict water quantity and quality of the gauged basin using SWAT.

Using some of these realizations in the modeling procedure to quantify the

uncertainties associated with inputs.

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Chapter Two Literature Review

Chapter Two

LITERATURE REVIEW

Bjørn Kløve (2014) observed that the aquifers and groundwater dependent

ecosystems, which are facing high pressure due to water use, climate change and

irrigation of water. These increased in pressure change groundwater levels and their

eternal method. And menace critical ecosystem services which are arable land irrigation

and water requirement for ecosystem. Especially during droughts on an area. So this

overview is studying the climate changes effects on groundwater and dependent

ecosystem as will. These mechanisms effecting natural variability in groundwater due to

global climate changes and effect of climate change .and also used of land changes due to

anthropogenic influences are summarized based on studying from different hydrological

and hydro geological strata and also from climatic zones. The impact on ecosystem is

discussed based on using the current findings on the factors influencing the biodiversity

and functioning of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem. The influence of climate change to

groundwater on groundwater dependent ecosystem (GDE)

Biodiversity and future menaces introduce by climate changes are reviewed. And

which we are using some main information from surface water data studies and

knowledge of aquifer and groundwater ecosystem. In which different research gapes are

identified. Due to no understanding of aquifers and groundwater of several key analyses.

The doubtfulness link with management techniques which are numerical modeling is

more. The possible nesses and roles of new methodologies such as indicator and

modeling methods are discussed in the context of integrated groundwater resources

management .

Timothy R. Green a (2011) collaborated that the entire world modification

encompasses changes in the characteristics of inter-related climate changes in the space

and time. And formed changes in the terrestrial procedures. This is including human

activities that are affecting the world environment. Such as projected global changes that

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includes groundwater systems. Whereas groundwater is defined here as the sum of all

subsurface water which includes soil water, deeper vidus zone water, and all confined

and unconfined aquifers of water under the ground. Potency of climate change effects

combined with both land and water management on surface water. Those have been

studied in details in some term. So the equivalent studies of groundwater systems have

lagged behind these progresses, but the research on groundwater and wide involvement in

the projected climate affects on groundwater have been speed up in past years. So in

these papers, we cater the summary and synthesis of the main key of subsurface

hydrology, which is including water quantity and water quality that is relating to global

changes. Whereas global change by adaptation must include reasonable management of

groundwater as a renewable. But in most cases the feedback is slow down. And in many

regions the groundwater storage is already over-tapped.so yet the available subsurface

storage may be the key to converge the combined demands of industries, agriculture,

domestic water supply and municipal water supply, and ecosystems during shortage of

time. In the circumstances of groundwater resources the intensity and frequency of dry

periods will be combined with warming tends needs to be addressed in future. Even

though the projections are fraught in space and time with uncertainty. Ultimately,

potential impacts of global climate on the groundwater system are mostly unknown.

Research that improve our apprehension of articulation behaviors of climate and

groundwater is required, and getting benefits on every studied.

Ali Ertürk a (2014) formulated that impact of Climate change is subjected to

considerable the western Mediterranean region of turkey may adversely affect the

groundwater of that region. Increase and decrease in temperature of annual precipitation

and winter precipitation are observed since 1960s.so in this study, the impact of climate

change impact on groundwater resources are a part of koycegiz-dalyan watershed was

valued. Valuation was done by quantifying the impacts of climate change on groundwater

budget components. Swat model was conducted by hydrological modeling. This

successfully graduated and formalized. Climate change and land use scenarios were used

to compute the present and future change of climate that impacts the groundwater budget.

According to simulation, almost all the water budget components have been decreased.

Whereas SWAT model was able to distribute less irrigation water because of overall

13


water is due to climate change. So these results in an increase in water stressed days and

temperature stressed days whereas decreased in the crop yield according to simulation

results. In this manner, in future the result signal that lack of water is expected. so this

investigation on switching to more efficient irrigation methods and to crops with less

water consumption are recommended as adaptation measures to climate change impacts

in an area.

Study region

Study about groundwater is conducted in the area of Magdalena Island (Quebec,

Canada). So here in a small archipelago located in the gulf city of St. Lawrence. And so

on.

Study focus

Jean-Michel Lemieuxa(2015)researched the complication of existing data of

groundwater. But the work of additional field has also been carried out to increase the

extra information about groundwater. So the work to support and design was undertaken

of long-term groundwater monitoring network and for the sustainable management of

groundwater resources. And the direct observation of the shape and depth of the

transition zone between sea water and fresh water under natural conditions has been

allowing for the first time in the Magdalena Island by additional field work. In order to

evaluate the individual and combined impacts of sea-level rise along a 2D cross-section

on grandee Entree Island were conducted coastal erosion and decreased recharge of

groundwater on the position of the saltwater and freshwater interface. Under saturated

and unsaturated conditions the simulation was performed viewing variable density flow

and solute transport. The model was driven by observed and projected climate change

scenarios to 2040 for the Magdalena Islands for more work.

Among these three impacts of climate changes on groundwater is viewed by

model, in which the most important is sea level rise, which is followed by decreasing in

groundwater recharge and coastal erosion , when these are combined , then over a 28

years period, these impacts cause the salt water and fresh water interface to migrate

inland over a distance of 37 m and to rise by 6.5 m near the coastal to 3.2 m further

inland.

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José-Luis Molina a (2013) experienced that some tools like Bayesian networks

are powerful for foretelling and measuring of groundwater management scenarios and

unsure drivers like climate change, integrating available scientific knowledge with the

interests of the multiple stakeholder. Among their major limitations and non transient

treatment of the cause effect relationship stands out. A decision support system (DSS)

that is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNS), this system is suggested here

designed to extenuate that limitation through time slicing technique. This DSS comprises

several classes, especially for 5 years length time steps designation for future. So this is

covering 30 years of period of total control (2045-2075). Here the DSS has been

developed for evaluating the impacts generated by different climate change scenarios that

are generated from several regional climatic models under two emission scenarios,

intensive used of groundwater is affected in an aquifer system over the last 30 years of

time. Under the climate change condition, the behavior of the aquifer was employed to

examine by the groundwater flow model (MODFLOW).so the calibrated continuous

water balance model was used to generate hydrological climate change (CC) scenarios.

Both of the models have obtained the result were used as an input for the aquifer

recharge, considering rainfall, variation of piezometric levels and temporal evolution of

the aquifer storage as the main hydrological components of the aquifer system of DSS.

So the results show the storage of aquifer under controlled water management

intervention for each future time step under different climate change conditions. As the

climate change come into effect than these types of applications would allow establishing

potential adaptation strategies for aquifer system.

Antoine Armandine Les Landes a, (2014) suggested that the lands of peat are

complex ecosystems driven by the processes of many biological, chemical and physical.

So these peat soils have some significant impact on groundwater quality, greenhouse gas

emission and the ecosystem productivity. Chiefly because of anthropogenic activities

such as drainage for agriculture or groundwater abstractions in underlying aquifer the

extent of the peat lands is decreasing across the world day by day. Potential changes in

precipitation and temperature in future are Likely applying additional pressure to

wetland. In these situation, the respective impacts methodology for evaluating and

comparing of groundwater abstractions and climate changes on groundwater fed wetland

15


are (135 km2) located in northwest France is presented. To represent surface and

subsurface interactions, a model of groundwater was developed to use flexible boundary

conditions, which allows the scrutiny of the extent of the wetland areas. So this parameter

is usually not considered in impact studies but highly important for land management.

Downscaled from 14 GCMs matched to the A1B greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario over

the periods of 1960-2000 and 2082-2101 the model was paired with recharge estimation,

groundwater abstraction scenarios and climate change scenarios. So the results show that

climate change is expected to have an important impact and reduce the surface of wetland

by 5.3-13.6%. In the comparison, the impact of the groundwater abstraction (100%

increases in the expected scenarios) would lead to a maximum decrease of 3.7%. Result

also show that the impacts of climate change and groundwater abstraction could be

partially mitigated by decreasing or stopping land drainage in specific parts of the area.

Water management will require an appropriate compromise which encompasses

ecosystem preservation, economic and public domain activities.

Barret L. Kurylyk a(2014) revealed the change in climate is expected to increase

global and regional air temperature and significantly modifying precipitation regimes. So

increase in soil temperature and groundwater temperature could impact the groundwater

quality, contribution to the geotechnical failure of critical infrastructure and harm

groundwater ecosystems. Melting caused by increasing temperature of subsurface will

also change the surface and subsurface hydrology in high latitude and altitude regions

and this worsens the rate of anthropogenic change in climate which than stores the carbon

gases into the atmosphere. These transports of subsurface heat equation for hot and cold

regions theory have discussed. It is summarized that heat transport model and developed

groundwater flow that can fallow melting and freezing processes briefly. So these are the

initial processes of studies on groundwater viewing the impact of climate change on

subsurface of groundwater thermal regimes in hot and cold regions in future. So the

current studies about climate change on groundwater create future information of

groundwater conditions.

Riasat Ali a,(2012) studied that in South-western Australia from groundwater the

water consumption is about three – quarters. The decline in groundwater levels occurred

due to increased discharge and decreased recharge rate since about 1975 and ultimately

16


the ecosystem is badly affected. Where the land is used for dry land agriculture there the

groundwater levels are rising. In this study five climate schemes are applied to

groundwater models to check the levels in region in 2030. The climate schemes were (i) a

continuation of the more recent climate of 1997–2007 until 2030; (ii) a continuation of

the historical climate of 1975–2007; and (iii–v) three climate scenarios derived by

applying the GCM projected climate under three global warming scenarios of 0.7, 1.0 and

1.3 °C by 2030. When the abstraction levels increase from allowed maximum levels

under the median future climate (1.0 °C warming), this is considered as sixth climate

scheme. This is evaluated that groundwater is affected by climate lesser than that of

surface water. Where the soil will sandy, a very little vegetation and water table neither

very deep nor very shallow, there the recharge rate will be at peak under fixed rainfall.

The water table should be within 10m of soil surface and about a quarter within 3m in

study area. When the drainage from groundwater is reduced and evapotranspiration losses

equalize the reduced rainfall amount then the groundwater levels would not decline in

reduced rainfall condition. Once the groundwater level is exceeded over its capacity then

rainfall will fail to refill it. Under the dry climate condition, where the perennial

vegetation was present, the groundwater levels decline whereas under the lands of dry

agriculture the projected groundwater levels continue to rise. There is very little bit

climatic impact on confined aquifer. This is due to the presence of confined layer over the

confined aquifer. Climate changes impact all of the water balance components to a

greater or lesser extent. It has sequels for the amount of water that can be extracted from

aquifer, changes the risk of sea-water intrusion and has suggestion for ecosystem.

17


M.E. Stuart(2011) evaluated the impact of climate on concentration of nitrate in

groundwater of UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework, . The change in

temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration will affect the agricultural

nitrate source as well as urbanization will be affected. Though that is not understood that

the intimation of nitrate leaching to groundwater is suitable but in future this leaching can

be increased under these climate scenarios. With fluctuation in groundwater level,

recharge and flow processes, the hydrological cycle will also be affected by climate.

Under these changes the concentration of nitrate will change in abstracted water. For

future prediction more site-specific data is required besides the leaching. Small changes

in nitrate leaching possesses to a possible doubling of aquifer concentration by 2100 from

limited increases. The agricultural practices may improve the nitrate reduction but there

is need discover more efficient methods. The economic responses to climate change can

also control the future impacts.

S. Pasini a( 2012) concluded that due to the observed global warming and its

consequences at the global to local scale, over last two decades the impact of climate

change on water resources is taken under consideration. Climate impacts for groundwater

and related ecosystems constitute concern to scientists and water protection authorities.

The changing in water cycle enhances research on relationships between climate drifts

and water levels, and for feasible management develops predictive tools, copying with

key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST, a

Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed to identify impacts of

climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems and to differentiate areas and

receptors in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). On the basis of

vulnerability of impacts, integrated analysis and climatic risks which effect the regions, a

RRA framework complying with the Sources– Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (SPRC)

approach was adopted. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters were

selected and inspected through risk and sensitivity analysis. From 2017 to 2100 period

the RRA methodology constructed through global and high resolution model simulations,

according to IPCC A1B emission scenario to produce useful manifestations for future

risk formulation and adopt the measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR)

techniques. Results from the RRA application emphasized that the impact of climate on

18


study area will occur with different magnitude and intensity. Qualitative impact will

occur on wetted groundwater whereas in driest condition the quantitative impact will

exposed. Moreover, direct effects of such impacts will be in minor range on related

ecosystem croplands, natural environments and forests while the indirectly effects of

climate will occur more severely on natural and anthropic systems through reduction in

quality and quantity of water availability for agriculture. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights

reserved.

Chao Chena (2014) investigated that to control the vegetation water use because

of climate change and impacts on recharge is vitally known to limited groundwater

resource utilization by man. Ground water modeling investigated all the responses of

climate on ground water. The study area was Mulga (Acacia aneura)in arid central

Australia. Data collected from the study area was calibrated and validated by using the

biophysically based model WAVES. The observed climate data of period 1981-2012 was

used to simulate the vegetation growth, vegetation water-use ground and water

groundwater recharge. Seasons had great impact on vegetation water-use and it was also

shown in simulation of the model. Annual recharge affected by vegetation water-use as it

was reduced by a rate of 0-48 mm compared to that of 58-672 mm. the study results

showed climate variability and land use cover and used for future prediction for impact

on climate change on ground water.

Lucila Candelaa (2009) has studied the Inca-Sa Pola coasal aquifer for year

2025, it simulates the impacts of climate change on a ground water dependent wetland

and natural recharge. General circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a groundwater

model used temperature and precipitation to simulate the climate change impacts on

ground water. Changes in volume of water withdrawn from ground water aquifers for

multiple purposes provided the basis for the management practices. Estimation of

discharge from aquifer for various purposes i.e,agricultural land use ,domestic use and

may more is done for simulation of climate change impacts over ground water flow rate

in spring season and recharge rate for climate scenarios. As results from GCM drawn less

or greater than simulated there showed the system response was indicative. The is a need

of reduction of ground water extraction so that it may prevent the drying up of wet land.

19


Sensitivity analysis showed that agricultural wells located near the wetland were affected

by spring discharge.

…..K. Eckhardta (2003) described that Europe is considered as a part of

anthropogenic climate change as there climate has significant impact over the region.

Here General Circulation Models used to simulate the changes in temperature and

precipitation over the region. In this study the model used was conceptual eco-hydrologic

model, a revised version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulates the

climate impacts on ground water recharge. The study area was central European low

mountain range catchment. Although climate had impacts over co2 emission from

stomata as well as contributed to Green House Effect but it had more significant impacts

over stream flow and ground water recharge. The study results predict the future climate

change scenarios, as it tells about warming of the region will cause the precipitation to

fall in the form of snow. It will cause the reduction in spring snow melt peak hence

causing the flood in winter will increase. Monthly mean ground water recharge reduced

by 50% in concerning problems of water quality,ground water withdrawals and

hydropower generation.

Achiransu Acharyya (2014) studied under developed countries , Ground water is

has a bad impact as affected by high population rate and human activities i.e ,

industrialization and urbanization all these activities have led to decrease in water supply

per capita. Human activities damage the natural resources of land water. The study results

showed that the temperature of the region rise led to the reduction in surface as well as

ground water.

H.A. Loáicigaa (2000) has explored the scaling factors which are derived from

various General Circulation models to evaluate the future impacts of aquifer pumping on

water resources of Edwards Balcones Fault Zone (BFZ) Texas , United States .these

scaling factors created the climate change scenarios. 2*CO2 climate scenarios coupled

with different pumping scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of water resources impacts to

human activities on Edwards BFZ aquifer. Surface hydrology combined with2*CO2

scenarios to studying the aquifer dynamics by simulation and calibration results all the

study was done. The simulation results show that 2×CO2 climate scenarios led to the

20


threatening results about ground water resources. The study results showed that there

were negative impacts on ground water resources under 2*CO2 climate scenarios, if

there even no increase in pumping above average level. All the results showed that there

were severe impacts of climate change over ground water resources and warm climate

severely affected the Edwards BZF aquifer.

Hui-Hai Liu (2011) examined the impact of climate change on groundwater

recharge in dry areas, this work is proposed which gives an eco-hydrology based

approach. In dry areas the vegetation community is divided into two groups, shallow- and

deep-rooted vegetation, for the deep-rooted vegetation the root-zone soil water saturation

attain its peak value in growing season. This concept is reinforced by the collection of

data sets in different dry regions. Analytical results of soil water dynamics developed are

adapted for establishing the impact of climate change. The conceptual model allows

deep-zone soil water saturation to remain fixed during different climate conditions in

growing season; we can construct a relationship among groundwater recharge, deep-

rooted vegetation cover and climate. We apply the developed approach to Yucca

Mountain area for an illustrative example. Our recharge values are consistent with results

calibrated by other methods or observed from sites. Here the climatic impact on

groundwater recharge is also evaluated. The results show that both groundwater recharge

and deep-rooted vegetation coverage increase with decreasing rainfall frequency (for a

given amount of annual rainfall), with increasing average rainfall depth per rainfall event

(for a fixed frequency) and with increasing frequency (for a fixed rainfall depth per

rainfall event). This is proved that the effect of vegetation on groundwater recharge is

enormous.

2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.☆

Mohamed Meddi (2013 ) calibrated the Cheliff-Zahrez watershed the resource of

water is groundwater. However, due to the drought in the basin, farmers of the region

have resorted to the intense availability of groundwater resources. This study, by adding

groundwater and natural infiltration, enabled us to calculate the impact of rainfall

21

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221267081300078X


reduction on groundwater resource in the basin. In the future we estimated the rainfall for

2025 and 2050 and due to it the groundwater recharge at that horizons.

Daniel C. Segala, , , (2014) evaluated that due to climate change the amount and

timing of snowmelt changing the groundwater levels in United States. In this study we

examine seasonal variability impact on aquifers (Martis Valley Watershed near Truckee,

CA) by analyzing (1) helium and tritium isotopes to determine groundwater sources and

age, (2) determine recharge temperatures and excess air concentrations from dissolved

noble gases. Recharge temperatures calculated at pressures corresponding to well head

elevations are similar to mean annual air temperatures at lower elevations of the

watershed, suggesting that most recharge is occurring at these elevations, after

equilibrating in the vadose zone. In a geothermal gradient each recharge temperature and

discharge temperature was calculated for groundwater flow depth. Groundwater samples

contain large amounts of excess helium from terrigenic sources, including mantle helium

and radiogenic helium. Terrigenic helium and tritium concentrations are used to

determine the age of groundwater sources. Many of the wells sampled show a mix of

groundwater ages ranging from >1000s of years old to groundwater with tritium

concentrations that are in agreement with tritium in modern day precipitation. In younger

groundwater and shallower flow depth high seasonal variability is found and this

indicates that the recent recharge is most endangered as compare to older, less sustainable

waters in the aquifer during periods of increased production.

J.P. Bloomfield (2006) simulated that the regulation of pesticides in surface and

groundwater is observed and significant work is done in last two decades and

understanding of environmental policy and regulation is important. There are some

studies that scrutinize the relationship between pesticides and climate change, and in this

area agricultural production is affected by climate rather than environmental protection.

As a pre-cursor to quantitative studies the regulation of pesticides under the climate

impact in surface and groundwater is simulated in this work. In order to structure the

review, we have adopted a source–pathway–receptor approach where environmental

pathways, climate sensitivities of pesticide source terms and receptors are observed. The

driver of climate, which control the pesticide regulation, can be variable in increased

temperature, rainfall seasonality and intensity, but overall to predict the effect of climate

22


on pesticide regulation is a difficult task. The impact of change in climate on land-use,

which is a indirect impact, have more consequential effect on the regulation of pesticides

as compare to direct impact. The analysis focuses on case studies from the UK; climate

change scenarios however, the general conclusions can be functional extra extensively.

Abstract

Taniguchi (2009) elaborated that in Asian coastal cities groundwater

contamination, excessive groundwater pumping, and subsurface thermal anomalies have

occurred enormously, greatly fluctuating the groundwater level and the subsurface

environment. In this study, the relationship between the urbanization and subsurface

environment issues have been traversed. Intensive field surveys were done in Tokyo,

Taipei, Bangkok, Jakarta, Osaka, Seoul, and Manila. Advanced methods, including tracer

techniques, satellite and the social economy model, were developed to assess subsurface

conditions. Under climate changes groundwater storage and groundwater recharge rates,

accumulation and transport of pollutants are integrated evidences of natural capacities,

and used to evaluate the susceptible risk for all cities. Now it is possible to manage

groundwater resources in a maintained fashion using these indicators. This volume is

crucial for researchers in hydrology, coastal oceanography, civil engineering, urban

geography, social economy, climatology, geothermic, and urban management.

23

Chapter Three Material and Methods

Chapter Three

Materials and Methods

3.1 Materials

Digital Elevation Model

Soil Data

Land Use

Weather Data

3.1.1 Digital Elevation model:

A digital elevation model (DEM) is a digital model or 3D representation of a

terrain’s surface-commonly for a planet (including Earth), moon or asteroid-created from

terrain elevation data.

A DEM can be represented as a raster (a grid of squares, also known as a height

map when representing elevation) or as a vector- based triangular irregular network

(TIN).

3.1.2 Soil Data:

In order to define the Hydrological Response Unit (HRUs), soil maps are very

important. All of the properties of the soil like pH, soil moisture storage capability and

organic carbon content can be derived from soil map.

3.1.3 Land Use:

Land use affects the discharge rate in a watershed because the rate of

evapotranspiration, surface erosion and runoff levels fluctuate.

24


3.1.4 Weather Data:

Weather data is used to calibrate the results of climate change on ground water

resources. This data is collected from Pakistan meteorological department Lahore.

Followings are included:

1. Temperature (C)

2. Precipitation (mm)

3. Relative Humidity

4. Solar Radiation (MJ/m^2)

5. Humidity

3.2 Methods:

For estimating the climate change impact on ground water, SWAT 2009 is used

which is incorporated with Map Window GIS for calibration, validation and uncertainty

analysis.

The software used for research was:

Map Window GIS

SWAT 2009

MWSWAT 2009

SWAT check

SWAT-CUP4

Microsoft excel

Microsoft access

25


3.2.1 Map Window GIS

Map window GIS project includes a free and open source desktop geographic

information system (GIS) with extensible plugin architectures. It is distributed as an open

source application under the Mozilla Public License; MapWindow GIS can be

programmed to perform different or more specialized tasks. There are also plug-in to

expand compatibility and functionality.

Fig:3.1 Map Window GIS

3.2.1.1. Model Setup

Data Preparation

Watershed Delineation

HRU Definition

3.2.1.2. Software Performance

Watershed delineation

Open new project and press Step1 Delineate Watershed

Add the DEM of Lahore and Press “Process DEM”

26


Fig:3.2 Input DEM Lahore

Add Shape file of Lahore

Fig:3.3 Input Lahore Shape File

Assign 50sq.km to network delineation by threshold method

27


Add Lahore outlet and press run

Fig:3.4 Input Catchment Distance

Create HRU

Press Step 2 Create HRU

28


Fig:3.5 Sub basins and Tributaries

Add Lahore Land use-reprojected and add Lahore soil-reprojected

Fig:3.6 Input Land Use and Soil Data

29


Fig:3.7 Created Hydrological Response Unit

SWAT Setup and Run

Press Step 4 SWAT Setup and Run

30


Fig:3.8 Input Weather Data

Fig:3.9 Input Files

31


Fig:3.10 SWAT Setup and Run

Visualize

Press Step 4 Visualize

32


Fig:3.11 Visualize

Fig:3.12 Mapping Through Visualization

33


3.2.2. SWAT 2009

SWAT is a small watershed to river-basin scale model to simulate the quality and

quantity of surface and groundwater and predict the environmental impact of land use,

land management practices and climate change. SWAT is widely used in assessing soil

erosion prevention and control, non-point source pollution control and regional

management in watersheds. SWAT can be considered a watershed hydrological transport

model.

Model Components

Weather

Surface runoff

Return flow

Percolation

ET

Transmission losses

Pond and reservoir storage

Crop growth

Irrigation

Groundwater flow

Reach routing

Nutrient and pesticide loading

Water transfer

Model Operation

Daily time step-long term simulations

Basins subdivided to account for differences in soils, land use, crops,

topography, weather, etc.

Basins of several thousand square miles can be studied

Soil profile can be divided into ten layers

Basin subdivided into sub basins or grid cells

34


Reach routing command language to route and add flows

Hundreds of cells/sub basins can be simulated in spatially displayed

outputs

Groundwater flow model

SWAT accepts output from EPIC

SWAT accepts measured data and point sources

Water can be transferred from channels and reservoirs

Nutrients and pesticide input/output

Windows Interface

GRASS GIS links to automate inputs

3.2.3. MWSWAT 2009

MWSWAT 2009 (MapWindow Interface for SWAT) is a plug-in for

MapWindow, an open source GIS system which runs under the Windows Operating

system. It provides the same functionality as Arc SWAT.

3.2.4. SWAT Check

The intended purpose of this program is to identify model problems early in the

programming process. Hidden model problems often result in the need to recalibrate or

regenerate model, resulting in an avoidable waste of time. This program is designed to

compare a variety of SWAT outputs to nominal ranges based on the judgment of model

developers. This software also provides the visual representation of various model

outputs to aid novice user.

35


3.2.5. SWAT-CUP 4

Swat cup is the computer program for calibration of SWAT models. SWAT-CUP

is the public domain program, and as such may be used and copied freely. The program

links GLUE, ParaSol, SUFI2, MCMC and PSO procedures to SWAT. It enables

sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis of a SWAT model.

The overall structure is shown:

Fig:3.13 SWAT-CUP4

3.2.6. Microsoft Excel

Microsoft excel is a spread application developed by Microsoft for Microsoft

Windows. It features calculations, graphing tools, pivot tables and a macro programming

language called visual basic for application.

3.2.7. Microsoft access

Microsoft access is a database management system from Microsoft that combines

the relational Microsoft Jet database Engine with a graphical user interface and software-

36


development. It can also import directly to data stored in other application and databases.

It is used to incorporate the excel files with SWAT model.

37

Chapter Four Results and Discussions

Chapter Four

Results and Discussions

4.1 General

The output of MWSWAT 2009 is the result of this chapter. MWSWAT 2009

contain following four steps:

Delineate watershed

Create HRUs

SWAT setup and run

Visualize

Fig:4.1 Shape file of Lahore

38


Fig:4.2 Sub basins in Lahore

39


Fig:4.3 Full HRU

40


Fig:4.4 Land use

41


Fig:4.5 Soil

42


Fig:4.6 Precipitation

Fig:4.7 Ground Water Recharge

43


Fig:4.8 Potential Evapotranspiration

Fig:4.9 Evapotranspiration

44


Fig:4.10 Discharge

Fig:4.11 Max. Temp

45


Fig:4.12 Min. Temp

46


Fig:4.13 Water Yield

47


4.2 Results

The results of the calibration and validation process of the model for the stream

gage at study area are illustrated in Fig. 4.14

Fig: 4.14 Results from SWAT Check

48


4.2 Discussion on land use distribution change

SWAT simulation was run from 1990 to 2014, where the first 8 years were used

as warm up period to filter out the effect of initial conditions for which no spatial data

exist. As seen clearly, almost 60% of precipitation is lost via evapotranspiration.

Land use is an important factor that could directly influence the watershed

hydrology apart from climate change. The case study area is located in a special

environmental protection area. Therefore, even if tourism is the development focus,

extensive construction of hotels and summer residential sites will not be allowed;

therefore, will not cause any serious land use change that would increase the impervious

areas considerably.

4.3 Results for the simulation of climate scenarios

Water yield=surface runoff +subsurface runoff +base flow–losses through

streambeds:

All the water budget components indicate that there is a clear decline except for

revap which was slightly increased. Revap is the rise of groundwater to supplement the

soil water deficit. Thus, an Increase of revap indicates that more water from groundwater

storage has risen to supplement the deficiency. In other words, the model estimated that

the soil became drier. SWAT estimated real evapotranspiration decreased as well

indicating that less water is available for Evapotranspiration. SWAT incorporates

algorithms that estimate how much water the land need and allocate that amount of water.

If enough water is available at the source required amount is withdrawn; otherwise only

available water is withdrawn. SWAT was able to allocate less land use water because of

the decrease of overall water due to the climate change. This also resulted in increase of

water stressed days and temperature stressed days.

49


4.4 Change in ground water storage

Groundwater quantity decreased for all climate change scenarios because of the

decrease in groundwater recharge. Changes in other hydrological variables such as the

base flow are the results of a considerable decrease of the groundwater storage. As the

summers in the region are dry with high rate of evapotranspiration, amount of the soil

water is important to maintain the natural vegetation. The decrease in precipitation and

increase in evaporation, especially in summer, can quickly reduce soil moisture, and

lower soil moisture can have adverse effects on plants and may also decrease the supply

of groundwater.

50

References

Chapter Five

Conclusion

In this study, SWAT hydrological model was set up to calculate the present and

future climate change impacts on water budget in Lahore. SWAT was successful

calibrated and validated to be used as a tool for given purpose.

For the climate change scenario, SWAT was run auto-land use mode, where the

model was provided with water sources (in our case study, the only water source for land

use was ground water) for each HRU. The model results showed clearly a decrease in

land use water, because less groundwater is available at land use of study area.

Lack of water is expected to be a pressure in the case study area. Under these

circumstances it is clear that water conservation should be considered as the primary

climate change adaptation strategy. Since land use is the main water demanding sector in

the area, further investigations about the possibilities related to switching appropriate use

of water. Such studies should be supported with comprehensive model application that

can test this scenario in terms of adaptations to the social and environmental context. The

hydrological results from our study could from the first tier of such an integrated

approach.

Analytical results for soil–water dynamics developed for investigating the impact

of climate change on groundwater recharge. Because the conceptual model allows deep-

zone soil water saturation (averaged over growing seasons) to remain fixed during

different climate conditions, the relations among groundwater recharge, the coverage of

land use, and climate can be obtained using the analytical results. Our estimated recharge

value under the current climate and land use coverage is generally consistent with results

estimated from other methods or observed from the site. We also evaluate how the

recharge will change under several assumed future climate scenarios. The results show

that both groundwater recharge and land use coverage increase with decreasing rainfall

frequency (for a given amount of annual rainfall), with increasing average rainfall depth

per rain-fall event (for a fixed frequency) and with increasing frequency (for a fixed

51

References

rainfall depth per rainfall event). The latter indicates the relatively large buffering effect

of land use on changes in groundwater recharge.

Recommendation

A precise water use data is needed to draw a more reliable picture of yield

of water and deep aquifer recharge resources availability with smaller

uncertainty bands.

An application of water yield and deep aquifer recharge information could

be to draw a water scarcity map of study areas presenting per captia water

availability per year.

Calibration of hydrological model alone with river discharge does not

provide good of all components of the water balances, it is recommended

to use a calibration of multi =criteria for different components of

uncertainty.

Evapotranspiration and Land use have direct relation with each other we

ca use it for calibration too in order to get soil moisture.

To understand the effect of climate change on ground water resources

availability and hydrological components, future climate change data are

also very useful and recommended to use as input in calibrated

hydrological model.

52

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Climate change impact on groundwater resources of lahore by using swat model

Engineering

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