Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and use of ...

Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and use of climate and weather tools

Presentation at the Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference

October 30, 2018

What are the Climate Hubs?• Cross-USDA centers assisting in climate change

adaptation on working lands

• Led by USFS, NRCS, and ARS• Participation from APHIS, FSA, RMA, RD

• Collaboration with LGUs, Cooperative Extension, and private sector

NRCS and FSA

NRCS

• Provides one-on-one conservation technical assistance with financial incentives

• Resource assessments

• Technology transfer

• Other technical assistance

• County offices across the country

FSA

• Low cost farm loans

• Indemnity and disaster recovery programs

• Administrative aspects of conservation programs

• County offices across the country

Survey Background: Climate Hubs serving USDA Agency Partners

• Establish baseline information that documents: • the level of knowledge about climate change that FSA/NRCS field staff

possess

• the degree to which FSA/NRCS field staff are comfortable or confident supporting farmers to address climate and weather risks.

• Support agencies to enhance the use of climate and weather tools among their employees as programmatically appropriate.

Image 2

Survey Background• Survey tool adapted from Useful to

Usable project (Prokopy et al. 2013)

• Multiple rounds of pretesting within and outside of agencies

• FSA administered November/December 2016

• NRCS administered February/March 2017

• IRB (human subjects research) approval through U. of Vermont

• Dillman Tailored Design Method: approval letter sent from agency to encourage participation, followed by an email invitation and three reminders

Photo Credit: REACCH-PNA

Survey Background: Response Rate Summary

FSA

• Target population: 10,614

• Total number of respondents: 4,621

• Response rate: 42%*

• 85% of respondents work with land managers

• 105 responses in the Carolinas

*Both response rates were calculated using the AAPOR’s RR4 method, which includes partial responses.

NRCS

• Target population: 8,504

• Total number of respondents: 1,893

• Response rate: 22.3%*

• NRCS – 93% of respondents work with land managers• Farmers – 47%• Ranchers – 29%• Forest landowners – 25%

• 58 Responses in the CarolinasImage 3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Historical weather trends

Annual or longer term outlooks

Weather data for the past 12 months

Monthly or seasonal outlooks

8-14 day outlooks

1-7 day forecasts

Current weather conditions

Responses to, “How dependent are you on the following types of weather information to do your job?” (n=158)

Very dependent Moderately dependent Slightly dependent Not dependent

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Forage dry down index

Evapotranspiration (ET) index

Growing degree day tools

Insect forecast

Crop disease forecast

Satellite data/indices of water or soil nitrogen status, precipitation ortemperature

Farmers’ Almanac

Cattle Heat Stress Forecast

U.S. Drought monitor/outlook

Responses to, “Do you use the following weather-related resource?” (n=157)

Use Don't use Not familiar with

Crop yields59%

Respondents’ top 5 responses to:“Do you consider historical weather trends or forecasts when you discuss ______ with producers?” Percentage of respondents who report “yes”.

Purchasing crop insurance or NAP

60%

Harvest or planting schedules

51%

Crop rotations and field assignments

38%

Crop and commodity storage

42%

Survey question adapted from Prokopy et al., 2013

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Increased soil erosion

Excessive moisture

Increased incidences of hurricanes/tropical depressions

More frequent extreme rains

Increased flooding

Increased heat stress on livestock

Increased heat stress on crops

Longer dry periods and drought

Responses* to, "Please indicate your level of concern about the following topic.“ (n=159)

Very concerned Concerned Slightly concerned Not concerned

*Top 8 of 18 responses shown

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

I have the knowledge and technical skill to help producers deal with anyweather-related threats to the viability of their operation

I am confident in my ability to apply weather forecasts and information to theservices I provide

Assisting producers to prepare for increased weather variability is a part of myjob

I believe there is an increased need for NRCS/FSA programs in my service areadue to changing weather patterns

In the past 5 years, I have noticed more variable/unusual weather in my area

Agreement with statements on climate and weather (n=162)

Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Producers should do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their farmoperations

Producers should take additional steps to protect their land from increasedweather variability

To cope with increasing climate variability, changing farming and ranchingpractices are important for the long-term success of the producers in my service

area

It is important for producers to adapt to climate change to ensure the long-termsuccess of U.S. agriculture

Extreme weather events in recent years have affected the long-termmanagement goals of producers in my service area

Changes in weather patterns are hurting the producers in my service area

Agreement with statements on producers (n=163)

Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

FSA (n=3,549)

NRCS (n=1,368)

Carolinas (n=158)

Responses to, “Please select the statement that best reflects your beliefs on climate change.”

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by human activities

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused equally by natural changes in the environment and human activities

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment

There is not sufficient evidence to know with certainty whether climate change is occurring or not

Climate change is not occurring

Count of Respondents to FSA Climate and Weather Survey by State (n=4238)

AK

Percent of FSA Employees Who Believe Climate Change Is Occurring (n=3549)

Hatching denotes <5 responses

Legend

NRCSBeliefAnthro

Npercent_2

0-10%

11-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-60%

61-70%

71-80%

81-90%

91-100%

Legend

USDAbeliefdatageocoded

FSAResponseCount / none

1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

126-150

151-175

176-200

201-225

226-250

251-275

276-300

301-325

326-350

351-375

NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

Legend



1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

126-150

151-175

176-200

201-225

226-250

251-275

276-300

301-325

326-350

351-375

NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

Legend



1-25

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51-75

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NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

Legend



1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

126-150

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NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

PR VI GU

HI


AK

Percent of NRCS Employees Who Believe Climate Change Is Occurring (n=1543)


Legend

NRCSBeliefAnthro

Npercent_2

0-10%

11-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-60%

61-70%

71-80%

81-90%

91-100%

GUVI

HI

Count of Respondents to NRCS Climate and Weather Survey by State (n=1893)

PR


Count of Respondents to FSA Climate and Weather Survey by State (n=4238)

Legend



1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

126-150

151-175

176-200

201-225

226-250

251-275

276-300

301-325

326-350

351-375

NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

AK

Percent of FSA Employees Who Believe Climate Change Is Anthropogenically Caused (n=3549)


Legend

NRCSBeliefAnthro

Npercent_2

0-10%

11-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-60%

61-70%

71-80%

81-90%

91-100%

GU

Legend



1-25

26-50

51-75

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101-125

126-150

151-175

176-200

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NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

Legend



1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

126-150

151-175

176-200

201-225

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251-275

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326-350

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NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

Legend



1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

126-150

151-175

176-200

201-225

226-250

251-275

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326-350

351-375

NRCSbeliefYN

Npercent_1

0-10%

0.100001 - 0.200000

0.200001 - 0.300000

0.300001 - 0.400000

0.400001 - 0.500000

0.500001 - 0.600000

0.600001 - 0.700000

0.700001 - 0.800000

0.800001 - 0.900000

0.900001 - 1.000000

VIPR

HI


Percent of NRCS Employees Who Believe Climate Change Is Anthropogenically Caused (n=1543)

Hatching denotes >5 responses

Legend

NRCSBeliefAnthro

Npercent_2

0-10%

11-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-60%

61-70%

71-80%

81-90%

91-100%

VI GU

Count of Respondents to NRCS Climate and Weather Survey by State (n=1893)

PR

HIAK


Conclusions

USDA field staff in the Carolinas…

• are most dependent on near term forecasts, and don’t often utilize longer term outlooks

• don’t use or are not familiar with many climate and weather tools

• are most concerned with drought, heat stress, and rain-related impacts

• are slightly more likely than the rest of the country to believe in climate change or anthropogenic climate change

• agree that the climate is changing and producers need to take steps to adapt, but are less believe adaptation is part of their job, or are confident in this area

How do we use this information?

• Trainings for USDA field staff to increase awareness and confidence

• Trainings on available tools and resources

• Feedback to tool developers

• Influence the way the Climate Hubs communicate with USDA field staff

• ….???

Thank you!

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Livestock breed selection

Fuel purchases

Livestock purchases

Integrated pest management practices

Agricultural drainage systems

Pesticide purchase and application

Fertilizer purchase and application

Irrigation systems

Market information (commodity prices, etc)

Tillage decisions

Crop and/or variety choices

Crop and commodity storage

Crop rotations and field assignments

Planting or harvest schedule of crops

Purchasing crop insurance or NAP

Crop yields

Do you consider historical weather trends or forecasts when you discuss...with producers? (n=156)

Yes, I do No, but I would if I had better information No, I don't I don't discuss these decisions with producers

Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and use of ...

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