Climate Change and Water in Africa
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OUCE OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Oxford University Centre for the Environment Environment Climate Change and Climate Change and Water in Africa Water in Africa Mark New Mark New
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Climate Change and Water in Africa. Mark New. Recent Research 1: Uncertainty in Future River Runoff. Grand Ensemble (2x CO 2 ) Climate Model Output. Run Hydrological Model at 1x1 ° lat/lon resolution. Analyse Simulated Runoff over Major River Basins. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Climate Change and Water in Africa
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Climate Change and Climate Change and Water in AfricaWater in Africa
Mark NewMark New
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Recent Research 1:Recent Research 1:Uncertainty in Future River RunoffUncertainty in Future River Runoff
Grand Ensemble (2x CO2)
Climate Model Output
Run Hydrological Model at 1x1° lat/lon resolution
Analyse Simulated Runoff over Major River Basins
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:General Patterns of Rainfall ChangeGeneral Patterns of Rainfall Change
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:River Nile River Nile
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Niger River Niger River
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Orange RiverOrange River
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Some Caveats…Some Caveats…
Only sampling a few of the Global Only sampling a few of the Global Climate Model UncertaintiesClimate Model Uncertainties
A simple 2 x COA simple 2 x CO22 experiment experiment
The hydrological model also has The hydrological model also has uncertaintiesuncertainties
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Recent Research 2:Recent Research 2:Changes in Perennial RiversChanges in Perennial Rivers
De Wit, Science, 2006
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Recent Research 2:Recent Research 2: Changes in Perennial RiversChanges in Perennial Rivers
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Recent Research 2:Recent Research 2: Changes in Perennial RiversChanges in Perennial Rivers
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts Recent research is providing new insights Recent research is providing new insights
into future water availability in Africainto future water availability in Africa At this stage there are few basins where a At this stage there are few basins where a
consistent picture is emergingconsistent picture is emerging Rural communities may be worst hitRural communities may be worst hit Availability is only one side of the issue – Availability is only one side of the issue –
future demand will affect water resources future demand will affect water resources far more seriouslyfar more seriously
Climate change will likely be an added Climate change will likely be an added stress on increasingly stressed systemsstress on increasingly stressed systems
OUCEOUCEOxford University Centre for the EnvironmentOxford University Centre for the Environment
Questions?Questions?
