Climate change in Africa
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Transcript of Climate change in Africa
Climate change : Impacts and Adaptation
Camilla Toulmin IIED
Cambridge
February 1st 2011
What we know about climate change
CO2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC
Warming of climate system
Systematic change in rainfall in most regions
Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise
Loss of arctic sea ice extent
More intense & extreme weather events
Africa - Water and rainfall
Much more intense water cycle Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and
Southern Africa) Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa) Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women
and girls worst hit Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs
irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress
Ouagadougou Floods
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HADLEY
Africa - Food and farming
Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of 50% by 2020
Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water flooding and salinisation
Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, crop-livestock relations
In very few areas, increased temp brings longer growing season, improved farming conditions
Major shifts in land productivity and values eg. irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands
What measures to help farmers cope?
Research and technology
Information and communication tools
Recognising resource rights
Bridging local and modern science
Investing in social infrastructure and learning
Investing in concrete infrastructure
Market engagement
Better governance
Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk and uncertainty
Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk and uncertainty?
Diversification
Farmland and crop contracts
Insurance
Collective mechanisms
Lessons from adaptation to drought
Community based adaptation: building local innovation systems
Kilimo Salama process
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Re-greening the Sahel
Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity
Poor depend most on environmental assets + ecosystem services
Economic value of current rate of loss estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year
Increased stress from changes in temp, rainfall accelerate losses
Thresholds and tipping points
Cities and climate change
Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai
95% global population growth in next 30 years will take place in cities in developing world
Slums 50%+ of urban population and most vulnerable to flooding + land slides
Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost 5-10% of GDP
Current focus on low C investment needs complement from adaptation for most vulnerable
Urban population in low-elevation coastal zone
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Politics, conflict and security
Climate change brings significant political consequences due to uneven impact, winners and losers – globally, regionally, within countries
Large scale migration, impoverishment, people seeking new land bring potential for conflict and security
Especially where guns widespread, young men without jobs, limited government capacity = political opportunism
Unintended consequences of climate policy
Large scale land acquisitions – food and biofuels – environmental and social costs
New market opportunities?
Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions – can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C market?
Defining/measuring GHG service
Minimising transaction costs
Risks of smallholder evictions
REDD+ funding
Defining/measuring C service
Managing the funds
Risks of smallholder evictions
Lots of questions…..
What does climate resilient development look like?
What best means to support adaptation – funds, channels, level? If accountable govt is key, how to support this?
Any positive opportunities from climate change available to poor?
Does financial crisis make progress easier or harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity?
What impact $200/b oil on agriculture, transport, trade?