Climate Change and the Future of Planet Earth

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Change and the Future of Planet Earth

Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

[email protected]

Chemical Engineering 302, 9 February 2006


Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future

climate change “Dangerous anthropogenic inter-

ference with the climate system”? “Climate surprises” Summary

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Planet Te(K) Ts(K) Earth 256 288

Venus 227 732

Mars 217 223

e

Ts

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration

330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Concentration (parts per million)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Annual Increase (parts per million)

CO2 Conc

Ann Increase

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature


2006


2006380 ppm

2040480 ppm


Stabilization at 550 ppm


“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)

2100(950 ppm)


“Nobody believes that the US economy can still be petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national plan”

Mark Kushner, Dean

Iowa State University College of Engineering

President’s Council Meeting

13 January 2006

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

From GEWEX News, 14, 1 (November 2004); http://gewx.org/gewex_nwsltr.html

No

rmal

ized

Ch

ang

e

Change in Downwelling Longwave Radiation vs. Change in Surface Temperature

Longwave DownSurface (2m) Temperature


Associated Climate Changes

Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.

Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)



Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

V



Tropical Weather

Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research


The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions


The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Adaptation Necessary

Mitigation Possible

40% Probability

5% Probability


Climate Change Projected for 2100

Rapid Economic Growth

Slower Economic Growth

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers

An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities

Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries

For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the

day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples

the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer

now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding


Climate Surprises

Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)

Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet


Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami


What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with

the Climate System”?

James Hansen, Director of the NASA GoddardInstitute for Space Studies:

* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2

* 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004


Summary Climate change is real and we need to be doing something

about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”

Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to develop adaptation strategies for the short term

The longer we wait, the fewer our options Regional patterns of warming will be complicated Climate surprises can’t be discounted We need dialog between scientists and the

private sector to develop both adaptation and mitigation strategies


For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have

seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:

[email protected]

Climate Change and the Future of Planet Earth

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