Planet Earth We Have a Problem Feedback Dynamics & the Acceleration of Climate Change.

Planet Planet Earth Earth

We Have a ProblemWe Have a Problem

Feedback Dynamics Feedback Dynamics & the Acceleration & the Acceleration of Climate Changeof Climate Change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Billions

160,000B.C.

100,000B.C.

10,000B.C.

7,000B.C.

6,000B.C.

5,000B.C.

4,000B.C.

3,000B.C.

2,000B.C.

1,000B.C.

1A.D.

1,000A.D.

2,000A.D.

World Population

8

9

Population Growth Throughout History

7

2,150A.D.

2006 – 6.5 Billion

1945 – 2.3 Billion

2050 – 9.1 Billion

1492 – 500 Million1776 – 1 Billion

First Modern HumansFirst Modern Humans

Source: United Nations

AtmosphericCarbon-dioxide

Increase in GHGconcentration raises

efficiency of insulating envelope,reducing net global radiation

Surfacetemperature

rises, driven byretained solar energy

until resultantradiation recoversto establish a new

thermal equilibrium

Except that weare accelerating the

accumulation of GHGs.

Except that weare accelerating the

accumulation of GHGs,and feedbacks are also pushing

the system even further from balance

Temperature

RadiativeForcing

MethaneConcentration

Carbon DioxideConcentration

Water VapourConcentration

Other GHGsConcentration

AlbedoEffect

Contrails &Aerosols

CloudEffects

Geo-thermalenergy

Solarenergy

Spatial Sink

Temperature

RadiativeForcing





AlbedoEffect

Contrails &Aerosols

CloudEffects

F.1

F.2

F.3 F.4

F.5

F.6

F.GGeo-thermalenergy

Solarenergy

Spatial Sink

F.R

Temperature

RadiativeForcing





AlbedoEffect

Contrails &Aerosols

CloudEffects

F.1

F.2

F.3 F.4

F.5

F.6


Solarenergy

Spatial Sink

F.R

Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia

Temperature

RadiativeForcing





AlbedoEffect

Contrails &Aerosols

CloudEffects

F.1

F.2

F.3 F.4

F.5

F.6


Solarenergy

Spatial Sink

F.R

F.Ti


Most of the systems known to affect Most of the systems known to affect

Climate Change are now in net positive Climate Change are now in net positive

feedback. Each feedback mechanism feedback. Each feedback mechanism

accelerates its own specific process. As a accelerates its own specific process. As a

whole, the complex adaptive feedback whole, the complex adaptive feedback

system consists of an interactive set of system consists of an interactive set of

mutually reinforcing subsystems.mutually reinforcing subsystems.

This second orderThis second order

feedback systemfeedback system

thereforetherefore

accelerates the rate ofaccelerates the rate of

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Warming is accelerating GREATLY,

especially "Recently"

Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center

12th January 2007

The Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to

global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to

be whipsawed between climate states…. Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth

perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers

for humans and other creatures.

James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 18th February 2007

Towards theTowards theAnthropoceneAnthropocene

Extinction EventExtinction Event

Beyond theBeyond theTipping PointTipping Point

“Tipping Point”or Bifurcation

Between Two Attractor Basins

Increase in Global Heating

Unstable Equilibrium

Potential Energy of Equilibrium State

Inflection Point

Original stable Equilibrium

Runaway Global Heating

Introducing the ConceptIntroducing the Conceptofof

““Critical Threshold”Critical Threshold”

““Critical Threshold”Critical Threshold”the point beyond which

the power of positive feedback

overwhelms the capacity for

human intervention

““Critical Threshold”Critical Threshold”the point towards which

the cost of climate stabilisation

escalates asymptotically

towards infinity

100 %


Relative Power of Positive Feedback

Original Equilibrium

Critical Threshold

100 %




Critical Threshold

CostofClimateStabilisation

100 %




Critical Threshold

We are now in the early stages of runaway Climate Change.

There does not appear to be any naturally occurring

negative feedback process in place to contain its effects.

Strategically we have to

generate a negative feedback

intervention of sufficient power

to overcome the now active

positive feedback process.

Then maintain its effectiveness

during the period while

temperature-driven feedback

continues to be active.

Climate Climate StabilisationStabilisation

Strategic Imperative for Strategic Imperative for Tomorrow’s WorldTomorrow’s World

Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing

The Gap between Energy received from the Sun

and

Energy radiated back into space from the Earth

Or Global Heating

-

Time

AcceleratingGlobal Heating

0

-ve

+ve

Thermal Equilibrium

GlobalHeatingRadiative Forcing

Radiative Forcing

20072007

380

460480

4002.5

3.6

380

420

440

Radiative Forcing

20072007

380

460480

4002.5

3.6

380

420

440

2007

Radiative Forcing

20072007

380

460480

4002.5

3.6

+ CO2e

380

420

440

2007

Radiative Forcing

20072007

380

460480

4002.5

+ H2Ovap

3.6

+ CO2e

380

420

440

2007

Radiative Forcing

20072007

380

460480

4002.5

+ H2Ovap

3.6

+ CO2e

380

420

440

2007

+ Albedo-change?


Value of about 4 watts per square metre

Or Global Heating



Is reduced by 1 w.m-2 for Global Dimming

Or Global Heating



Is reduced by 1 w.m-2 for Global Dimming

And by 1 w.m-2 for Temperature rise of 0.8ºC

Or Global Heating


Is currently running at about 2 w.m-2

Or Global Heating



That is about 8 one k.watt fires per small sized football pitch

Or Global Heating



Or 1,000,000 Giga Watts over the whole Earth

Or Global Heating



Or 1,000,000 Giga Watts over the whole Earth

= 1 Trillion (million x million) 1KW Fires

Or Global Heating



It is increasing by 25% per decade

Or Global Heating

Climate Climate StabilisationStabilisation

Means reducing that to Means reducing that to

ZeroZero

Time

Accelerating Global Heating

0

-ve

+ve

Thermal Equilibrium

Global Heating

Effects of required Strategic Intervention

Global Cooling

Intervention Point

Radiative Forcing

Like ThisLike This

There now exists a

State of Planetary

Emergency

Declaring the Stateof Planetary Emergency

EngagingEngaging the Stateof Planetary Emergency

““Failure is not an option”Failure is not an option”Gene Kranz

Apollo 13: Mission Controller

P l a n e t E a r t hP l a n e t E a r t h

W e H a v e a P r o b l e mW e H a v e a P r o b l e m

F e e d b a c k D y n a m i c s F e e d b a c k D y n a m i c s & t h e A c c e l e r a t i o n & t h e A c c e l e r a t i o n o f C l i m a t e C h a n g eo f C l i m a t e C h a n g e

A Scientific UpdateA Scientific Update Proceedings of the Westminster Briefing hosted by the

All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group on 6th June 2007

T h eT h e

P r o j e c tP r o j e c t

T h eT h e

P r o j e c tP r o j e c t

www.apollo-gaia.org

Geo-Thermal energyGeo-Thermal energy


Spatial Sink

Temperature

GlobalHeating

Geo-thermalenergy


Spatial Sink

Temperature

GlobalHeating

F.G

Geo-thermalenergy

Radiation cycleRadiation cycle


Spatial Sink

Temperature

GlobalHeating

Solarenergy


Spatial Sink

Temperature

GlobalHeating

Solarenergy

F.R

Carbon CycleCarbon Cycle

TemperatureGlobalHeating

CO2(e)Concentration

CO2Emission

CO2Absorption


CO2 Equivalenceof other Emitted

GHGs

CO2 FromBreakdown of

Methane

Spatial Sink


CO2(e)Concentration

CO2Emission

CO2Absorption



GHGs


Methane

F.1

AlbedoEffect

Spatial Sink


CO2(e)Concentration

CO2Emission

CO2Absorption



GHGs


Methane

F.1 F.2

AlbedoEffect

Spatial Sink

Albedo EffectAlbedo Effect


+ or –Change in

Albedo

GlobalHeating Temperature

Reflection fromIce and Snow

Reflection fromVegetation

Reflection fromLand & Sea

Spatial Sink


+ or –Change in

Albedo



Reflection fromContrails and

Aerosols



Reflection fromCloud Forms

Spatial Sink


+ or –Change in

Albedo



F.3


Aerosols




Spatial Sink


+ or –Change in

Albedo



F.3


Aerosols




Changes in CosmicRadiation

Spatial Sink

Water VapourWater Vapour


EvaporationFrom

Plant surface



EvaporationFrom

Water surface

EvaporationFrom

Land surface

Spatial Sink


EvaporationFrom

Plant surface



EvaporationFrom

Water surface

EvaporationFrom

Land surface

Cloud Formation &Precipitation

Spatial Sink


EvaporationFrom

Plant surface



EvaporationFrom

Water surface

EvaporationFrom

Land surface

F.4


Spatial Sink


EvaporationFrom

Plant surface



EvaporationFrom

Water surface

EvaporationFrom

Land surface

F.4

F.5


Spatial Sink


EvaporationFrom

Plant surface



EvaporationFrom

Water surface

EvaporationFrom

Land surface

F.4

F.5



Spatial Sink


EvaporationFrom

Plant surface



EvaporationFrom

Water surface

EvaporationFrom

Land surface

F.5


What happens if we shift to a hydrogen economy and replace CO2 with H2O as an anthropogenic greenhouse gas?

F.4


Spatial Sink

Methane CycleMethane Cycle


MethaneEmissions



Humanactivity

Bacterialactivity

ReleasedFrom Store

MolecularBreakdown

CO2concentration

Plant & AnimalSources

Spatial Sink


MethaneEmissions



Humanactivity

Bacterialactivity

ReleasedFrom Store

MolecularBreakdown

Plant & AnimalSources

F.6

CO2concentration

Spatial Sink

Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:

F.G Temp./GHG Effect Geo-thermal Heating



0.1Rising GHG concentration inhibition of geo-thermalradiation increased surface temperature eventualincrease in earth core temperature



G.2

Rising surface temperature from retained solar energy inhibits geo-thermal radiation even higher surfacetemperature to restore geo-thermal radiation eventualincrease in earth core temperature

G.1Rising GHG concentration inhibition of geo-thermalradiation increased surface temperature eventualincrease in earth core temperature


F.R Temperature Radiation



R.1Rising surface temperature increases the rate of radiationDecreases radiative forcing eventual restoration ofthermal equilibrium



NB:

The effect of this negative feedback mechanism is masked by the acceleration of radiative forcing

R.1Rising surface temperature increases the rate of radiationDecreases radiative forcing eventual restoration ofthermal equilibrium

F.1 CO2 Concentration CO2 Absorption Rate



1.1Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water decreasing absorption of CO2

increased CO2 concentration



1.2Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water destruction of plankton decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration






1.3

Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water destruction of plankton decreasingemission of DMS decreased cloud formation loweredcloud Albedo, less I-R absorption increased global heating?

1.2Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water destruction of plankton decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration



F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption



2.1Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration


2.2

Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingplankton life decreasing absorption of CO2 increasedCO2 concentration




2.3Rising temperature + Increasing CO2 concentration trigger of land-based vegetation from carbon sink tocarbon source increased CO2 concentration


Continue category

2.2

Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingplankton life decreasing absorption of CO2 increasedCO2 concentration



2.4Rising temperature increasing respiration ofsoil-based bacteria increased release of CO2




2.5

Rising temperature + change in rainfall drying out ofpeat bogs increasing enzyme activity followed by riskof fire release of CO2 increased CO2 concentration





2.5

Rising temperature + change in rainfall drying out ofpeat bogs increasing enzyme activity followed by riskof fire release of CO2 increased CO2 concentration





2.6

Rising temperature expansion of land-based tectonic plates increased volcanic activity release of CO2 increased CO2 concentration

F.3 Temperature Albedo Effect




3.1Rising temperature melting of ice and snow decrease in Albedo effect increased heating



3.2Rising temperature die-back of tropical forest increase in Albedo effect decreased heating




3.3Rising temperature northward expansion of Boreal forest decrease in Albedo effect increased heating

Continue category

3.2Rising temperature die-back of tropical forest increase in Albedo effect decreased heating




3.4

Rising temperature of ocean surface die-back ofplankton decreased release of DMS decreased cloudformation decreased Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?



3.5Rising temperature of ocean surface increased densityof water vapour increased cloud formation increase in Albedo effect + greater I-R absorption decreased heating?

3.4

Rising temperature of ocean surface die-back ofplankton decreased release of DMS decreased cloudformation decreased Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?

F.4 Temperature Cloud Formation




4.1

Rising low level air temperature increased capacity for H2O vapour storage decreased cloud formation decrease in Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?



Decreasing high level air temperature decreasedcapacity for H2O vapour storage increased cloudformation increased Albedo effect + more I-R absorption decreased heating?

4.2

4.1

Rising low level air temperature increased capacity for H2O vapour storage decreased cloud formation decrease in Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?

F.5 Temperature Evaporation




5.1

Rising temperature (all surfaces) increased evaporation increased water vapour density more cloudformation increased Albedo effect, but more I-R absorption decreased heating?



5.2Rising temperature (all surfaces) increased evaporation increased water vapour density increased GHGeffect increased global heating

5.1

Rising temperature (all surfaces) increased evaporation increased water vapour density more cloudformation increased Albedo effect, but more I-R absorption decreased heating?

F.6 Temperature Methane Emissions




6.1Rising temperature increased bacterial activity increased methane production increased GHGeffect increased global heating



6.2Rising temperature thawing of tundra permafrost release of methane increased GHG effect increase in global heating




6.3Rising temperature warming of shallow seas release of methane hydrates increased GHG effect increase in global heating

6.2Rising temperature thawing of tundra permafrost release of methane increased GHG effect increase in global heating


F.Ti Temperature Thermal Inertia




Ti.1Hotter ocean surface more stratification and lessmixing degrade of ocean thermal sink increase in rate of global warming



Ti.2Rising temperature less available ice to melt decreased endothermic inertia increase in rate of global warming




Ti.3Hotter water-air interface more evaporation enhanced endothermic inertia decrease in rate of global warming

Ti.2Rising temperature less available ice to melt decreased endothermic inertia increase in rate of global warming


Temperature

GlobalHeating

Spatial Sink

Heat loss to spatial sink

Radiative forcing from all sources


Temperature

GlobalHeating

Spatial Sink



Heatingof land-mass

Ice-meltendothermic

Evaporationendothermic

Heating ofatmosphere

Heatingof ocean

Heatingof ice


Temperature

GlobalHeating

Spatial Sink



Heatingof land-mass

Ice-meltendothermic

Evaporationendothermic

Heating ofatmosphere

Heatingof ocean

Heatingof ice

F.Ti


Towardsan effective Strategy

ForClimate Stabilisation

Fossil Fuel Emissions

0

BAU

Fossil Fuel EmissionsDescent to Low Carbon Economy

Emissions Reduction

0

BAU

Fossil Fuel EmissionsDescent to Low Carbon Economy

Emissions Reduction

0

Family of Solutions based on 1990’s Understanding of

Climate Change

BAU

Imperative to move:

Imperative to move:

beyond a low carbon economy

Imperative to move:


through zero carbon economy

Imperative to move:



to a carbon removal economy

Imperative to move:




At a Global level

Imperative to move:




At a Global level

In the shortest possible time

CO2 emitting

fossil fuel is an energy

source whose time is

over!

Change from treating it

as a scarce resource

with high value

To an eco-toxin

to be removed

as quickly as possible!

0

BAU

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Build-up of Eco-Toxin

0

BAU

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Build-up of Eco-Toxin Emissions

Reduction

Emergence into Carbon Removal Economy

0

BAU

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Build-up of Eco-Toxin Emissions

Reduction

Emergence into Carbon Removal Economy

Solutions based on Current Understanding of Climate Dynamics

Metamorphosis: 1Metamorphosis: 1


Increasing penalty for emissions from fossil

fuels


Increasing rewards for removal of atmospheric

co2

Increasing penalty for emissions from fossil

fuels


Emission Penalties

Removal Rewards

ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE

A Matrix of co-evolutionary sub-systems

With an array of non-linear feedbacks between all elements


Population

Economics

Energy

Resources


Population

Economics

Energy

Resources

Employment Pollution

Science &Technology Industry


Population

Economics

Energy

Resources

Water Agriculture

Health Food




Population

Economics

Energy

Resources

Water Agriculture

Health Food



UrbanisationTransport

Travel & Mobility

PoliticsConflict& War


Population

Economics

Energy

Resources

Water Agriculture

Health Food




Travel & Mobility


Education Values

Consumer-ism

Media &Advertising


Population

Economics

Energy

Resources

Water Agriculture

Health Food




Travel & Mobility


Education Values

Consumer-ism

Media &Advertising

Military-

Industrial

Complex

Psycho-

Social

Dynamics

Communication

Religious Beliefs

Planet Earth We Have a Problem Feedback Dynamics & the Acceleration of Climate Change.

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Transcript of Planet Earth We Have a Problem Feedback Dynamics & the Acceleration of Climate Change.