Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation ...l… · Climate and carbon cycle dynamics...
Transcript of Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation ...l… · Climate and carbon cycle dynamics...
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Climate Analysis Section, CGD, NCAR
Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE
Flavio Lehner
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Switzerland Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland
Fortunat Joos, Christoph Raible, Juliette Mignot, Andreas Born, Kathrin Keller, Thomas Stocker
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Outline
0. Experimental setup 1. Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity 2. Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
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Experimental setup
CESM 1.0.1: • CAM4, CLM4, CICE, POP2 • 0.9x1.25_gx1v6 (~1°) • BPRD: climate doesn’t see progn. carbon cycle • 500 year control 850, branched from piControl
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0.2%
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
Experimental setup: solar forcing
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Experimental setup: other forcing
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
Gao et al. (2008)
Pongratz et al. (2008) Hurtt et al. (2011)
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Projects
• Lehner et al. (2015, ESD Disc.): Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE
• Keller et al. (2015, GRL): Detecting changes in marine responses to ENSO from 850 to 2100 C.E.: insights from the ocean carbon cycle
• Chikamoto et al. (in prep.): Delayed tropical Pacific biological productivity response to strong volcanic forcing
• Blumer et al. (in prep.): Extreme winter cyclones in the North Atlantic in a CESM Last Millennium simulation
• Gomez-Navarro et al. (in prep.): Dynamically downscaling wind storms over complex terrain with WRF
![Page 7: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation ...l… · Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE . Flavio Lehner . ... 1. Climate-carbon cycle](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051801/5adf7ff67f8b9a8f298d013d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Projects
• Lehner et al. (2015, ESD Disc.): Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE
• Keller et al. (2015, GRL): Detecting changes in marine responses to ENSO from 850 to 2100 C.E.: insights from the ocean carbon cycle
• Chikamoto et al. (in prep.): Delayed tropical Pacific biological productivity response to strong volcanic forcing
• Blumer et al. (in prep.): Extreme winter cyclones in the North Atlantic in a CESM Last Millennium simulation
• Gomez-Navarro et al. (in prep.): Dynamically downscaling wind storms over complex terrain with WRF
![Page 8: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation ...l… · Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE . Flavio Lehner . ... 1. Climate-carbon cycle](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051801/5adf7ff67f8b9a8f298d013d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Temperature evolution
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Temperature evolution
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Prognostic CO2
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Prognostic CO2
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Prognostic CO2
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
Friedlingstein et al. (2014)
Long et al. (2013)
Lindsay et al. (2014)
…
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Outline
0. Experimental setup 1. Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity 2. Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
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15
Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity
Arora et al. (2013, JC)
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Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity
Frank et al. (2010, Nature)
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Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD) Frank et al. (2010, Nature)
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Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD) Frank et al. (2010, Nature)
1550-1800
1050-1549
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Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD) Frank et al. (2010, Nature)
1550-1800
1050-1549
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Outline
0. Experimental setup 1. Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity • 1.3 ppm °C-1, but non-stationary • Hard to constrain by paleo (data and simulations)
2. Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
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0. Experimental setup 1. Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity • 1.3 ppm °C-1, but non-stationary • Hard to constrain by paleo (data and simulations)
2. Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Outline
![Page 21: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation ...l… · Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE . Flavio Lehner . ... 1. Climate-carbon cycle](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051801/5adf7ff67f8b9a8f298d013d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Outline
0. Experimental setup 1. Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity • 1.3 ppm °C-1, but non-stationary • Hard to constrain by paleo (data and simulations)
2. Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
![Page 22: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation ...l… · Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE . Flavio Lehner . ... 1. Climate-carbon cycle](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051801/5adf7ff67f8b9a8f298d013d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Frölicher et al. (2013, GBC)
NCAR CSM1.4 carbon
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD) Stevenson et al. (in prep.), CESM LME
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD) Chikamoto et al. (in prep.)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
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Volcanic impact on carbon cycle (tropics)
Lehner et al. (2015, ESDD)
CES
M
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Outline
0. Experimental setup 1. Climate-carbon cycle sensitivity • 1.3 ppm °C-1, but non-stationary • Hard to constrain by paleo (data and simulations)
2. Volcanic impact on carbon cycle • Non-linear scaling with eruption strength • Potentially poor model agreement, dynamical climate
response matters
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Projects
• Lehner et al. (2015, ESD Disc.): Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE
• Keller et al. (2015, GRL): Detecting changes in marine responses to ENSO from 850 to 2100 C.E.: insights from the ocean carbon cycle
• Chikamoto et al. (in prep.): Delayed tropical Pacific biological productivity response to strong volcanic forcing
• Blumer et al. (in prep.): Extreme winter cyclones in the North Atlantic in a CESM Last Millennium simulation
• Gomez-Navarro et al. (in prep.): Dynamically downscaling wind storms over complex terrain with WRF
![Page 35: Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation ...l… · Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE . Flavio Lehner . ... 1. Climate-carbon cycle](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051801/5adf7ff67f8b9a8f298d013d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)