U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program&

Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group

http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/

2

USGCRP in the Federal Context

USGCRP AgenciesDepartment of Agriculture

Department of Commerce

Department of Defense

Department of Energy

Department of Health and Human Services

Department of the Interior

Department of State

Department of Transportation

Environmental Protection Agency

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

National Science Foundation

The Smithsonian Institution

U.S. Agency for International Development

Principals: http://globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/officials

Global Change Research Act - 1990

• (P.L. 101-606), called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."

• 13 agencies in the official budget crosscut ($2.5B of funding in total)

• Subcommittee on Global Change Research (“the Principals”) under the White House Committee on Environment and Natural Resources

USGCRP FY 2014 Priorities

• Theme 1: Extremes, Thresholds, and Tipping Points. – Improve observations, understanding and anticipation of the risks (and

their confidence intervals) to human and natural systems from extremes, thresholds, and tipping points arising from climate-related environmental change.

• Theme 2: Integrated Research on Coupled Earth and Human Systems– Enhance USGCRP capacity to better understand and integrate

socioeconomic and biological aspects of global change into research and decision support.

• Theme 3: Actionable Science for Informed Policy Making and Management– Strengthen the scientific basis for decision making and enhance

accessibility and utility of data and tools for decision support, at relevant scales (e.g. regional).

US Carbon Cycle Science Program

http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/

Carbon Cycle Science Steering Group (CCSSG)

Carbon Cycle Science Interagency Working

Group (CCIWG)

NSTC CENRS SGCR

NACPOCB

CarboNA

Global Carbon Project -RECCAP

United States Carbon Cycle Science Program & CCIWG

Interagency Partnership

Providing a coordinated & focused scientific strategy for conducting federal carbon cycle research

Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group (CCIWG)

• One of several USGCRP IWG’s (longest running IWG)

• Open to all Federal agenciesHistoric participation by DOE, EPA, NASA, NIST, NOAA, NSF, USDA, USGS– Original Science Plan– State of the Carbon Cycle Report– Carbon Cycle Science Plan (2011)

Role of the CCIWG• Promote interagency cooperation &

coordination;• Help secure funding, prepare individual & joint

agency initiatives & solicitations; &• Involve the scientific community in providing

the needed science to understand the carbon cycle.

http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/programs.php#CCIWG

Carbon Cycle Scientific Steering Group (CCSSG)

• Carbon cycle research & application experts from federal, state, university, & non-government organizations

• Individual & broad scientific & application input to the CCIWG as it develops & administers carbon cycle science programs within the federal government

http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/programs.php#CCSSG

Government-level initiative - Canada, US & Mexico - to establish greater cohesion across North America in C pool, GHG flux dynamics, C related mitigation strategies, through identification of continental-scale priority issues & promotion of collaborative research in areas of common interest & complementary expertise.

CCIWG initiativesTo measure & understand the sources & sinks of CO2, CH4, & CO in North America & in adjacent ocean regions http://www.nacarbon.org/nacp/

Study the evolving role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle, in the face of environmental variability & change through studies of marine biogeochemical cycles & associated ecosystems. http://www.us-ocb.org/

http://nacarbon.org/carbona

CCIWG implementation of 2011 Plan

• Recognition of the need to include “human dimension” in our program– Expect to do this by integrating social sciences, not

stand alone efforts• Joint solicitations that focus on topics raised in

the Plan and that meet agency missions• Maybe as soon as 2013

Themes/focus areas

• Carbon vulnerability in critical ecosystems, including vulnerability due to or affected by human systems and actions-2 areas with huge and vulnerable carbon stores, high probability for tipping points--examples:– Arctic and boreal—(primary vulnerability: thermal) including

land use change and terrestrial to coastal transport and interactions, fundamental processes, observations, modeling

– tropics—(primary vulnerabilities: climate/precipitation patterns and LUC/human) ecosystem processes, observations, modeling, REDD

– Arctic and Southern ocean

Themes/focus areas (2)

• Coastal and land to ocean interactions, land-aquatic interfaces—including carbon transport and impacts of human systems (watershed management, land use, coastal development, urban planning), (should we call out impacts of sea level rise?)

• Urban and ag/rural to urban transitions /interactions—drivers of emissions (human decisions, energy, policies, development, land use, infrastructure, economics, demographics), observational constraints and validation of emissions, “source tracking” in space and time

Cross-cutting issues:• Scaling and cascading effects—regional to continental,

macrosystems, how do tipping points/non-linear responses at one scale translate/impact at larger/smaller scales , including human initiated)

• Decisions/policies and management impacts on the carbon cycle, coupled natural-human systems, what are the policy and management actions that can alter the current (seemingly disastrous) trajectory?

• Improved observing systems and data integration—including below-ground, socioeconomic, physical, biological

Workshops and syntheses

• Welcome suggestions for synthesis activities, critical infrastructure for synthesis and decision support

• Looking for workshop proposals—esp. including integrating SBE (see slide 6)—hopefully leading to new initiatives. Considering:– Human-carbon interactions– development and applications of carbon cycle

prediction

Examples from NSF/BIO

• Core programs (workshops, EAGER, RAPID, CAREER)– Ecosystem Studies Program (regular, RCN, OPUS)– Note change to pre-proposals due April 1

• Special programs– MacroSystems Biology (exploratory, full, workshops)

• Synthesis centers (working groups, post-docs, etc.)– SESynC, NCEAS, iPlant, etc.

• NEON (facility, workshops, AOPs)

Henry Gholz hgholz@nsf.gov

Examples from NSF/GEO

• Core programs (workshops, EAGER, RAPID, CAREER)

– OCE (chem, bio, phys): incl. Ocean Acidification, OCB, OOI– EAR (Hydrol, Geochem, Geomorph&Land-use)– AGS (Chem, CLD, Paleo, PDM)

• Special programs

– CZO– EarthScope (informatics)

• Note: Office of Polar Programs has moved back under GEO

NSF Cross-cutting examples• EPSCoR – 30 states, 2 tracks• INSPIRE - interdisciplinary, LOIs due 2/20 and 3/29 for 2

tracks• Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability

(SEES) portfolio (>14), recent relevant solicitations:

– Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) - Nov. 2012– Ocean Acidification – Dec. 2012– Arctic SEES – Sept. 2012– Coastal SEES – Jan. 2013– Hazards and Disasters – Feb. 4, 2013– Water, Sustainability and Climate – 2013– Research Coordination Networks/Sustainability Res. Networks– Cyber SEES – Feb. 5, 2013– Decadal & Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models

(EaSM) 2014 tbd

USDA Forest Service Carbon Cycle Research Program

• In-house program that works with other agencies• Carbon Cycle Science in forest, rangeland and urban

ecosystems :– Pools and fluxes of carbon in ecosystems– Impact of management on carbon

• Carbon Monitoring – – Provides the official US estimates of forest carbon inventory. – Research to better understand carbon pools– Research to develop better assessment methods– Develop tools for managers to assess carbon in forests,

rangelands and urban ecosystems.

USDA – ARS Carbon Research

Greenhouse gas Reductions through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network (GRACEnet) project Synthesis book of project results

for last 5 years published Core materials and authorship for

CAST report Online Manual of GRACEnet

Sampling Protocols Data Management System to be

publically available February 2013 308 publications since 2005 Global Research Alliance on

Agricultural Greenhouse Gases (GRA) project based on GRACEnet

USDA-ARS LONG TERM AGROECOSYTEM

RESEARCH NETWORK

(http://www.ars.usda.gov/ltar)

• Shared & coordinated research across sites

• Shared research protocols• Compatible data across sites• Capacity for cross-site data analysis• Foster shared engagement as a network

• Additions via RFI & Review Panel• other ARS watersheds• other Federal agencies• colleges & universities• others meeting criteria

10 sitesAreas: 0.57-6,200 km2

Data Record: 12 – 100 yrNeon Domains: 8 of 7

Major Drainage Basins: 8 of 18Farm Resource Regions:7 of 9

Current Activities USDA-NRCS

• USDA-NRCS Ongoing Projects– Comet-Farm: Next generation of COMET2.0. Whole farm GHG

analysis including crops, livestock, agroforestry and fuel use– Rapid Assessment of Soil Carbon of CONUS: Large inventory of

soil carbon stocks, vegetation and management data, total and inorganic C

– SNOTEL (snow telemetry) and SCAN (Soil Climate Analysis Network: Monitoring for water supply forecasts in west and soil moisture/soil temperature trend data in 50 US states and Antarctic

– NRI data collection and satellite imagery of Alaskan sites

USDA-NIFA• 2013 Climate variability and change AFRI program—focus on

adaptation-biophysical basis, tools and sbe for effective action. 344 letters of intent, proposals due April 15

• 2012-3 AFRI Foundational rfa out, 212 LOIs, proposals due Feb 21- not carbon focused, but GHG, water

• 2013 Sustainable bioenergy rfa—128 LOIs, proposals due April 3, one CAP, + standard grants

• EaSM awards to be announced soon• Working on several interagency calls—carbon, water,• International opportunity on agricultural GHG issued through FACCE-

JPI, LOIs due March 27, proposals due September 3, must include at least 3 contributing countries

• PD meetings last October—Climate Change and Sustainable Bioenergy, working on plans for a book. See funded projects of climate change program

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Earth Science Division Research Programs

Support research to advance Earth System Science to meet the challenges of climate and environmental change

Approximately $170M annually for carbon cycle science, with at least 2/3 going to the relevant satellite missions

Annual and periodic solicitations (focused on or including carbon cycle science) Carbon Cycle Science (multi-agency) Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Terrestrial Ecology Land Cover and Land Use Change Carbon Monitoring System Interdisciplinary Science Information Systems & Services New Investigator Program Remote Sensing for Water Quality

Major field campaigns (e.g., ICESCAPE, LBA and BOREAS) and large integrative projects (e.g., model intercomparisons, community data set development) with carbon science relevance

NASA Data for Operations & AssessmentScience Teams for Terra/Aqua, Suomi NPP and OCO-2 Science Definition Teams for ICESat-2, DESDynI, and PACE HyspIRI Preparatory Studies Advanced Technology Development Venture Missions (satellite and suborbital)

Satellite Missions in the Queue (or with potential to be in the launch queue prior to 2020): Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) – launch February 11, 2013!! Decadal Survey Tier 1: ICESat-2 (working hard to evaluate photon counting for canopy height and biomass); SMAP (soil moisture, freeze-thaw, surface inundation); DESDynI (studying an affordable L-band radar for low-medium biomass) Climate Initiative: OCO-2 (atmospheric column CO2); PACE (ocean biological & chemical properties and aerosols)

Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) field campaign (study plan in development)

Carbon Monitoring System (a prototyping effort directed by Congress) – success here will have strong relevance for decision support

2010-2012: Developing and evaluating a global carbon dioxide flux product and national- and regional-scale biomass/carbon stock products for the U.S.; Scoping potential new ocean carbon products and an end-to-end system 2012-2014: Improving/expanding upon the flux and biomass products; Developing and evaluating new and/or alternative products

Ocean carbon research: product-oriented, development of provisional regional flux data products and coupled models of land-ocean-atmospheric fluxes

Ongoing NASA carbon cycle science research and analysis contributes to and will be guided to evolve in ways compatible with A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan

NASA Program Elements that Respond to and/or Support the New U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan

NOAA Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle and Climate Program (AC4)

Goals:

Determine the processes governing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of the Earth System and Climate

Specifically, over the next five years:

Improve the diagnosis and attribution of sources and sinks of aerosols and greenhouse gases through increased efforts in synthesis of data, especially focusing on areas revisited in NOAA field campaigns (e.g. West Coast US, South-East US, Arctic)

Through national and regional field measurements and modeling, quantify the interaction between anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, determine the pathways for aerosol production and ageing (including aerosol-cloud interactions), and quantify aerosol radiative properties

Improve coupling of atmosphere, ocean and land components in Earth System Models with a particular initial emphasis on the nitrogen cycle

Reduce uncertainty on North American CO2 flux estimates in CarbonTracker through improved techniques in data assimilation to better quantify the North American CO2 budget

Quantify greenhouse gas fluxes in areas of increasing emissions (urban environments, and oil and gas fields) by conducting targeted observations and modeling

Through interagency collaboration, quantify greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations and their variability in remote regions (e.g. Arctic, Amazonia)

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases Group

The NOAA Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases group makes ongoing discrete measurements from land and sea surface sites and aircraft, and continuous measurements from baseline observatories and tall towers.

Specific activities include:

Tall Tower MeasurementsThe tall tower network provides regionally representative measurements of CO2 and related gases in the continental boundary layer. Existing television, radio and cell phone towers are utilized as sampling platforms for atmospheric trace gases.

Aircraft MeasurementsAn automated system for obtaining air samples from aircraft. Data collected by the aircraft program provide a view of how the large-scale horizontal and vertical distribution of the measured trace gases change throughout a given year over the continent.

Cooperative NetworkAn international effort to make regular discrete samples from a globally distributed network of sites. Air samples are collected approximately weekly which are analyzed for the amounts of multiple gases and for the stable isotopes of CO2 and CH4.

Standard GasesGMD is the WMO Central Calibration Laboratory for CO2, CH4 and CO, and is responsible for maintaining and distributing the WMO Mole Fraction scale for these gases. GMD also provides preparation and calibration services of compressed air cylinders for standard gases.

CarbonTrackerCarbonTracker is a system that calculates carbon dioxide uptake and release at the Earth's surface over time. The goal is to produce quantitative estimates of atmospheric carbon uptake and release that are consistent with observed patterns of CO2 in the atmosphere.

U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological & Environmental Research

Climate & Environmental SciencesTerrestrial Ecosystem Science

• Supports foundational science to improve our predictive understanding of terrestrial ecosystems in a changing climate

• Roughly $40M annual research budget

• Annual university solicitation– FY 12 $3M/year. 200 preaps, 141 full applications, 12 awards. Highlighted: natural

disturbances, belowground processes, coupled biogeochemical cycles and Arctic and tropical ecosystems

– FY 13 $3M/year, 207 preapps, 140 encouraged. Highlighted belowground processes, Arctic and tropical ecosystems, natural disturbance, terrestrial-aquatic interface, CLM developments relevant to TES, and synthesis activities

• Programs at National Labs – ANL ($1M), LBNL ($1M), ORNL ($8M), PNNL ($0.7M), LANL ($0.5M), NGEE ($8M), AmeriFlux ($5M)

DOE Terrestrial Ecosystem Science• Goal: Develop, test, and simulate process-level understanding of

terrestrial ecosystems, extending from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy

• Strong focus on model-experiment integration = predictive understanding

• Major programs (Lab-led) – NGEE-Arctic ($9M),

– SPRUCE,

– AmeriFlux ($5M),

– Southwestern drought

• Closely tied to modeling programs

• Active member in the CCIWG

U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological & Environmental Research

Climate & Environmental SciencesTerrestrial Ecosystem Science

• Supports foundational science to improve our predictive understanding of terrestrial ecosystems in a changing climate

• Roughly $40M annual research budget

• Annual university solicitation– FY 12 $3M/year. 200 preaps, 141 full applications, 12 awards. Highlighted: natural

disturbances, belowground processes, coupled biogeochemical cycles and Arctic and tropical ecosystems

– FY 13 $3M/year, 207 preapps, 140 encouraged. Highlighted belowground processes, Arctic and tropical ecosystems, natural disturbance, terrestrial-aquatic interface, CLM developments relevant to TES, and synthesis activities

• Programs at National Labs – ANL ($1M), LBNL ($1M), ORNL ($8M), PNNL ($0.7M), LANL ($0.5M), NGEE ($8M), AmeriFlux ($5M)

DOE Terrestrial Ecosystem Science• Goal: Develop, test, and simulate process-level understanding of

terrestrial ecosystems, extending from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy

• Strong focus on model-experiment integration = predictive understanding

• Major programs (Lab-led) – NGEE-Arctic ($9M),

– SPRUCE,

– AmeriFlux ($5M),

– Southwestern drought

• Closely tied to modeling programs

• Active member in the CCIWG

USGS Activities

Carbon cycle research is conducted in different program areas; there is no a single, unified carbon cycle research program in USGS

However, studying global carbon cycle is a priority of the USGS, including: national assessments, land-use change effects, multidisciplinary methods, and C monitoring

USGS program areas and research activities contribute to all major CCSP objectives in a complementary fashion

Examples of ongoing USGS C R&D include:

• Many research activities ranging from gas fluxes in prairie and coastal wetlands to carbon dynamics in high altitude and high latitude ecosystems

• Two national assessments: geologic and biologic carbon sequestration assessments

Example USGS Research ActivitiesOngoing work:

• The fate of C in soil pools with different ages and physical and chemical properties, under different climate change and hydrologic regimes

• Paleo-carbon studies of different ecosystems, examining effects of past climate change, land use, and environmental change

• Dissolved and gaseous C fluxes and processes in aquatic environment • C sequestration and gas fluxes in restored wetlands from prairie pothole to coastal

peatlands, in relation to other ecosystem services such as agriculture and CRP

Future planned work:• Develop carbon budgets from specific communities to understand capacity for carbon

sequestration and forecast effects of climate and land use change on this capacity• Provide carbon accumulation and GHG emissions datasets to inform and improve

National assessments of carbon sequestration.• Develop mechanistic models of soil carbon dynamics, as well as soils data needed to

improve and test models• Document microbe-mineral interactions along soil chronosequences and deep soils and

impacts of land use change

USGS Activities – Geologic CO2 Storage

Ongoing work:• Characterize sedimentary basins and geologic formations for potential CO2 sequestration

• Report on basin geology and characteristics of CO2 storage assessment units

• Assessment methodology endorsed by International Energy Agency• Assessment reports and products scheduled for release in mid-2013, providing most

comprehensive accounting of the Nation’s CO2 storage potential

Future planned work:• Conduct enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO2 storage potential R&D and assessment

• Study economics of CO2 storage and EOR

• Study induced seismicity (DOE projects in IL, MT)• Conduct focused, detailed geological studies of reservoirs and seals in selected basins

with high potential for CO2 sequestration

• Evaluate potential storage of CO2 in unconventional geologic reservoirs

USGS Activities – Biologic C Sequestration

Ongoing work:• Characterize different C pools and gas fluxes in all major ecosystems, all 50 states• Report on carbon sequestration under current conditions and future scenarios• Methodology linked with land use and land cover, wildfire, climate change, and land

management• Assessment for the conterminous U.S. complete in 2013, Alaska and HI in 2014

Future planned work:• Improve uncertainty estimation (and estimation methods) for relevant components of a

national C sequestration assessment• Study linkages between ecosystem types and processes, such as aquatic flux, land use,

ecosystem disturbances, and land management• Develop decision support tools for land managers by considering ecosystem services,

economics of carbon sequestration, and vulnerabilities of C stock under climate change• Improve model and data resolutions, study C monitoring, develop C assessment

updating methods

Example of USGS Activities – Better Permafrost Map in AK

Yukon River BasinUsing airborne electromagnetic resistivity data and Landsat data, the USGS is able to produce more detailed active-layer thickness estimates and permafrost maps

Existing Map

New Map

NIST Greenhouse Gas and Climate Science Measurements Program-Direct Technical Contributions

• Gas standards– WMO Central Calibration Laboratory– Best capability set of CO2 and CH4 standards

• Accuracy od CRDS Measurements– Quantitative line broadening studies-CO2 and CH4

mixtures• Modeling

– Near field boundary layer modeling efforts– Flux strength determination using coupled WRF

and optimization methods

NIST Greenhouse Gas and Climate Science Measurements Program-External Research Support

• Dense GHG Observing Networks– Much actionable information is local– INFLUX

• Extending to Another City – A Megacity– Test methodologies developed for a small, isolated

urban system – can applicability be demonstrated in a large, complex city

– International Extensions• Standardized measurement methodologies characterizing

urban domes and their dynamics– Independent verification of self-reported emissions– Utility in gauging future GHG mitigation policies

Dense Observing GHG Observing NetworksAn Urban Observing Strategy

• Actionable Information is Mostly Local– mostly occurs at spatial scales well below global scale– Governments & industry require information for their jurisdiction– GHG mitigation and climate adaptation implemented locally– The preponderance of scientific investigations of the last several

decades have primarily focused on global effects •Greenhouse Gases and Cities

– Emissions concentrated in urban areas – larger signals– Emissions data (Inventories) originate locally

•Measuring Greenhouse Gases– Emissions & removals may have measurement

uncertainty of ± 20% or larger– Constraining and better defining GHG data may be

accomplished with improved measurement techniques, comparison with local scale emissions data, and use of carbon isotope ratio data

•Independent Emissions Verification– Gauge effectiveness of local & national policies– Significantly impact future national & international emissions control and reduction strategies

Global Atmospheric CO2 Concentration since 1958 – the Keeling Curve

Population Density

Beijing Area

Cities and Climate Change: An Urgent Agenda, World Bank Study 2010

James R. Whetstone