Class7

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The Internet and The Internet and Democracy Democracy In the late 1990s and early 2000, many In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people predicted that the Internet was people predicted that the Internet was going to spread democracy around the going to spread democracy around the world. world. Tom Friedman – choice between “free market Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla and North Korea” vanilla and North Korea” Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down on Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello on Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello to the wall” to the wall” Again, these optimistic visions of the Again, these optimistic visions of the future have failed to materialize. future have failed to materialize. But the Internet, together with related But the Internet, together with related technologies (text messaging etc) has technologies (text messaging etc) has changed the way in which pro- and anti- changed the way in which pro- and anti- democratic forces operate. democratic forces operate. To understand why – need to look at what To understand why – need to look at what these technologies involve. these technologies involve.

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Transcript of Class7

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The Internet and DemocracyThe Internet and Democracy In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people

predicted that the Internet was going to spread predicted that the Internet was going to spread democracy around the world.democracy around the world.• Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla

and North Korea”and North Korea”• Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down on Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down on

Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello to the wall”Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello to the wall” Again, these optimistic visions of the future have Again, these optimistic visions of the future have

failed to materialize.failed to materialize. But the Internet, together with related But the Internet, together with related

technologies (text messaging etc) has changed technologies (text messaging etc) has changed the way in which pro- and anti-democratic forces the way in which pro- and anti-democratic forces operate.operate.

To understand why – need to look at what these To understand why – need to look at what these technologies involve.technologies involve.

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Naïve beginningsNaïve beginnings First flush of enthusiasm about the First flush of enthusiasm about the

Internet.Internet. Belief that it would spread democratic Belief that it would spread democratic

values and topple tyrants values and topple tyrants (Cyberlibertarianism).(Cyberlibertarianism).

True not only in developed world but even True not only in developed world but even more so in developing world.more so in developing world.

The Internet as a force for globalization.The Internet as a force for globalization.• Spreading Western valuesSpreading Western values• Spreading the truth/resisting censorshipSpreading the truth/resisting censorship

Of course, things weren’t as Of course, things weren’t as straightforward for reasons we have straightforward for reasons we have already discussed …already discussed …

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Different technologies have Different technologies have different consequencesdifferent consequences

Bringing together some of the themes that Bringing together some of the themes that we have discussed in class.we have discussed in class.

Internet and related technologies provide Internet and related technologies provide space for space for different kinds of mediadifferent kinds of media..

These media in turn are more or less These media in turn are more or less conducive to conducive to different kinds of contentdifferent kinds of content..

And this affects how they reshape the And this affects how they reshape the landscape for pro- and anti- democracy landscape for pro- and anti- democracy forces. forces.

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Two ways of promoting democracyTwo ways of promoting democracy

We should distinguish between two ways We should distinguish between two ways in which the Internet and related in which the Internet and related technologies can promote democracy.technologies can promote democracy.• Through providing help to pro-democracy Through providing help to pro-democracy

activists in protests and other actions aimed at activists in protests and other actions aimed at overturning regimes.overturning regimes.

• Through promoting Through promoting civil societycivil society which may which may indirectly lead to more democracy in the long indirectly lead to more democracy in the long run.run.

And also should be aware that anti-And also should be aware that anti-democratic forces can use the Internet democratic forces can use the Internet too.too.• Weakening of civil society in Russia and Weakening of civil society in Russia and

elsewhere.elsewhere.

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Different tools for different Different tools for different purposespurposes

Various media (all based on the Internet or Various media (all based on the Internet or network communication) may have highly network communication) may have highly diverse consequences.diverse consequences.

In particular – imply different relationships In particular – imply different relationships between the between the sendersender of a of a message/webpage/TV spot and the message/webpage/TV spot and the recipientsrecipients..

We can distinguish between We can distinguish between one-to-oneone-to-one forms of communication, forms of communication, one-to-manyone-to-many forms of communication, and forms of communication, and many-to-many-to-many many forms of communication.forms of communication.

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One to One CommunicationOne to One Communication Traditional forms of direct communication, Traditional forms of direct communication,

in which one person is communicating in which one person is communicating with another (or perhaps with a very small with another (or perhaps with a very small number of people).number of people).

Traditional forms have included letters, Traditional forms have included letters, face-to-face conversations etc.face-to-face conversations etc.

Newer forms include much email (personal Newer forms include much email (personal email etc).email etc).

But also much instant text messaging.But also much instant text messaging. Also some new Web 2.0 technologies such Also some new Web 2.0 technologies such

as Twitter.as Twitter.

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One-to-manyOne-to-many Involves a single (or small number) of Involves a single (or small number) of

sources, and many possible recipients.sources, and many possible recipients. Traditional model of TV broadcasting and Traditional model of TV broadcasting and

newspaper publishing.newspaper publishing. But also applies to many forms of content But also applies to many forms of content

on the Internet.on the Internet. Standard web pages (of organizations etc) Standard web pages (of organizations etc)

– designed to be read by many people, but – designed to be read by many people, but not modified by them.not modified by them.

General email blasts (such as much of General email blasts (such as much of what MoveOn does in the US)what MoveOn does in the US)

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Many-to-ManyMany-to-Many

Traditionally, it has been hard to have Traditionally, it has been hard to have large distributed conversations.large distributed conversations.

But blogs provide one example of how this But blogs provide one example of how this is changing.is changing.• A vast conversation taking place among large A vast conversation taking place among large

numbers of people – but organized.numbers of people – but organized. Also, other new technologies, including Also, other new technologies, including

social networking sites (Facebook etc) social networking sites (Facebook etc) have important many-to-many aspects.have important many-to-many aspects.

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Technologies and communicationTechnologies and communication

Some technologies are better equipped to Some technologies are better equipped to provide certain kinds of communication and less provide certain kinds of communication and less well equipped to provide others.well equipped to provide others.• Email – great for one-to-one and one-to-many Email – great for one-to-one and one-to-many

communication. Not so good for many-to-many.communication. Not so good for many-to-many.• Text messages – like email.Text messages – like email.• Web pages – good for one to many communication.Web pages – good for one to many communication.• Blogs – good for many-to-many communication, and Blogs – good for many-to-many communication, and

(sometimes) one-to-many communication, but overkill (sometimes) one-to-many communication, but overkill for one-to-one communication.for one-to-one communication.

• YouTube – excellent for one-to-many communication, YouTube – excellent for one-to-many communication, and also has some many-to-many applications.and also has some many-to-many applications.

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Technologies and contentTechnologies and content

This goes together with differences in the This goes together with differences in the kinds of content that different media favor.kinds of content that different media favor.• Instant messages – short punchy messages, Instant messages – short punchy messages,

often in jargon. Encourages quick back-and-often in jargon. Encourages quick back-and-forth.forth.

• Email – somewhat longer text based messages Email – somewhat longer text based messages (typically less quick than text messages).(typically less quick than text messages).

• Blogs – text based communication over period Blogs – text based communication over period of hours.of hours.

• YouTube etc – takes hours or days to edit and YouTube etc – takes hours or days to edit and upload.upload.

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Media and political actionMedia and political action Combination of (a) the nature of the Combination of (a) the nature of the

medium (one to many, one to one etc), medium (one to many, one to one etc), and the kinds of content it favors have and the kinds of content it favors have implications for political action.implications for political action.

Some media are well suited to rapid Some media are well suited to rapid organizing.organizing.

Others to slower forms of communication Others to slower forms of communication over days, weeks and perhaps longer.over days, weeks and perhaps longer.

Thus – we may expect different electronic Thus – we may expect different electronic media to have media to have veryvery different different consequences for pro- and anti-democratic consequences for pro- and anti-democratic forces.forces.

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Instant text messaging/SMSInstant text messaging/SMS Short simple messages are well suited to the Short simple messages are well suited to the

organization of ‘smart mobs’ – crowds that organization of ‘smart mobs’ – crowds that converge on a particular place for a particular converge on a particular place for a particular purpose.purpose.

Allow for quick adaptation to a limited set of Allow for quick adaptation to a limited set of changing circumstances (changed meeting place changing circumstances (changed meeting place etc).etc).

Thus well suited to the organization of Thus well suited to the organization of spontaneous demonstrations and other similar spontaneous demonstrations and other similar forms of action.forms of action.

One to many form of SMSing can also be used by One to many form of SMSing can also be used by state or protestors to organize concerted action.state or protestors to organize concerted action.

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BlogsBlogs

Allow for more complex forms of Allow for more complex forms of discussion – and are speedier than discussion – and are speedier than traditional mass communication.traditional mass communication.

But not well suited to mobilization on the But not well suited to mobilization on the street.street.

May even serve as a distraction – some May even serve as a distraction – some democratic activists complain about democratic activists complain about bloggers thinking they can spur the bloggers thinking they can spur the revolution from their bedroom (they can’t).revolution from their bedroom (they can’t).

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Audiovisual services (YouTube etc)Audiovisual services (YouTube etc)

Slower than other forms of electronic Slower than other forms of electronic communication and not well suited at all communication and not well suited at all to quick back-and-forths.to quick back-and-forths.

Preparing clips takes time and resources.Preparing clips takes time and resources. However, may have a profound impact on However, may have a profound impact on

people’s willingness to mobilize.people’s willingness to mobilize. Video can carry a much more visceral Video can carry a much more visceral

punch.punch.

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What does this suggest …What does this suggest … (1) One-to-many or one-to-one technologies such (1) One-to-many or one-to-one technologies such

as SMS/email can help organize broad political as SMS/email can help organize broad political action.action.• Good at disseminating short pieces of information Good at disseminating short pieces of information

rapidly.rapidly.• However only good at simple forms of communication – However only good at simple forms of communication –

not long run movement building.not long run movement building. (2) Many-to-many text rich technologies such as (2) Many-to-many text rich technologies such as

blogs can coordinate more compex tasks, and blogs can coordinate more compex tasks, and substitute in part for a free press.substitute in part for a free press.• Much more sluggish than SMS and do not have a mass Much more sluggish than SMS and do not have a mass

audience.audience.• But can build civil society.But can build civil society.

(3) Many-to-many forms of communication with (3) Many-to-many forms of communication with audiovisual content (YouTube) are poor at audiovisual content (YouTube) are poor at organizing a mass audience.organizing a mass audience.• But may help trigger mobilization in important ways.But may help trigger mobilization in important ways.

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Case studiesCase studies

4 Case studies – allow us to see how 4 Case studies – allow us to see how these dynamics play out in real life.these dynamics play out in real life.

ChinaChina The UkraineThe Ukraine Lebanon, Bahrain and the Arab worldLebanon, Bahrain and the Arab world RussiaRussia

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China and the InternetChina and the Internet

China has a highly developed set of controls on China has a highly developed set of controls on Internet.Internet.

not only blocks specific IP addresses, it also has not only blocks specific IP addresses, it also has dynamic filtering.dynamic filtering.

Can block pages that contain specific words Can block pages that contain specific words (Falun Gong).(Falun Gong).

Has also blocked access sporadically to search Has also blocked access sporadically to search engines at sensitive moments.engines at sensitive moments.

Blocked Google before an important Party Blocked Google before an important Party Congress.Congress.

Now seems to have forced Google (and Yahoo! Now seems to have forced Google (and Yahoo! and Microsoft) to cooperate more generally.and Microsoft) to cooperate more generally.

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Jingjing and ChachaJingjing and Chacha

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Blocking of contentBlocking of content

On the one hand, this has led to severe On the one hand, this has led to severe restrictions on what you can and cannot restrictions on what you can and cannot talk about using the Internet in China.talk about using the Internet in China.• Arrests of pro-democracy bloggers etc.Arrests of pro-democracy bloggers etc.

On the other, people still find ways to talk On the other, people still find ways to talk about political issues, but in highly indirect about political issues, but in highly indirect ways.ways.

Some evidence that a limited degree of Some evidence that a limited degree of power is leaking away from the state.power is leaking away from the state.• Case of email from reporter – and response.Case of email from reporter – and response.

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Civil society vs. hyper-nationalismCivil society vs. hyper-nationalism

Rebecca McKinnon – suggests that the US Rebecca McKinnon – suggests that the US should should notnot seek to push China on Internet seek to push China on Internet freedom issues.freedom issues.• Chinese bloggers etc much more likely to Chinese bloggers etc much more likely to

flourish if they are not seen as directly flourish if they are not seen as directly challenging the regime.challenging the regime.

Hopes for gradual flowering of a civil Hopes for gradual flowering of a civil society – a realm of conversation outside society – a realm of conversation outside the control of the state.the control of the state.

And perhaps leading to long run transition And perhaps leading to long run transition to democracy or at least a more to democracy or at least a more responsive regime.responsive regime.

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Alternative scenarioAlternative scenario However, there is an alternative possibility However, there is an alternative possibility

– c.f. the anti Japan riots in 2005.– c.f. the anti Japan riots in 2005. These were organized by a mixture of These were organized by a mixture of

bulletin boards (primitive forms of many-bulletin boards (primitive forms of many-to-many) and text messaging.to-many) and text messaging.

Initially, they were at least tacitly Initially, they were at least tacitly encouraged by the regime.encouraged by the regime.

However, rapidly got out of control and However, rapidly got out of control and developed a life of their own – eventually developed a life of their own – eventually squashed by the authorities.squashed by the authorities.

This suggests that the benign civil society This suggests that the benign civil society scenario isn’t the only one possible.scenario isn’t the only one possible.

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The UkraineThe Ukraine Dramatic elections in 2004 following the Dramatic elections in 2004 following the

exit from power of Kuchma.exit from power of Kuchma. Opposition had a popular candidate in Opposition had a popular candidate in

Yuschenko.Yuschenko. Government engaged in extensive vote-Government engaged in extensive vote-

rigging to ensure that their candidate – rigging to ensure that their candidate – Victor Yanukovych won.Victor Yanukovych won.

Opposition organized protests in which Opposition organized protests in which 100,000-300,000 people came out every 100,000-300,000 people came out every day to protest in Kiev, with other protests day to protest in Kiev, with other protests in other parts of Ukraine.in other parts of Ukraine.

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SMS messagingSMS messaging SMS messages not the only factor in SMS messages not the only factor in

getting people out to protest.getting people out to protest. But did play an important role in But did play an important role in

organizing protests (esp. in mobilizing organizing protests (esp. in mobilizing young people).young people).• College students used SMS to tell a dozen of College students used SMS to tell a dozen of

their friends to come to Independence Square – their friends to come to Independence Square – and to forward the message on to a dozen and to forward the message on to a dozen others creating a snowball effect.others creating a snowball effect.

Also provided less organized forms of Also provided less organized forms of political communication – political jokes political communication – political jokes etc.etc.

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BlogsBlogs

Some have claimed that blogs played Some have claimed that blogs played an important role.an important role.

Some evidence of a role for Some evidence of a role for Ukrainskaya Pravda.Ukrainskaya Pravda.

Substitute for censored print media.Substitute for censored print media. But only 12% of Ukrainians had But only 12% of Ukrainians had

Internet access on a regular basis.Internet access on a regular basis. Thus – its impact was limited to Thus – its impact was limited to

elites.elites.

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Old style mediaOld style media

Traditional TV also played a highly Traditional TV also played a highly important role – bizarrely, the important role – bizarrely, the opposition had control over a TV opposition had control over a TV station.station.

One notorious incident where One notorious incident where Yanukovych was apparently attacked Yanukovych was apparently attacked with “heavy, blunt instruments.”with “heavy, blunt instruments.”

But this wasn’t quite what it But this wasn’t quite what it appeared.appeared.

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Final resultsFinal results

Public outcry led to a second vote being Public outcry led to a second vote being held, which Yuschenko won.held, which Yuschenko won.

However, hasn’t proved a long term However, hasn’t proved a long term success.success.

Opposition fragmented after the elections.Opposition fragmented after the elections. Ukraine is better than it was, but is now at Ukraine is better than it was, but is now at

best a quite unstable democracy with best a quite unstable democracy with continuing structural issues.continuing structural issues.

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The Arab WorldThe Arab World The Internet still plays only a minor role in the The Internet still plays only a minor role in the

Arab world because of low levels of penetration Arab world because of low levels of penetration (not many people have access).(not many people have access).

Cell phone access is relatively low too.Cell phone access is relatively low too. Satellite television is in many ways more Satellite television is in many ways more

important.important. But there are important cases where the Internet But there are important cases where the Internet

and related technologies have made a political and related technologies have made a political difference.difference.

Lebanon – the Cedar RevolutionLebanon – the Cedar Revolution Bahrain – arguments between Shia majority and Bahrain – arguments between Shia majority and

Sunni rulers.Sunni rulers.

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Cedar revolution and InternetCedar revolution and Internet Lebanon sees higher use of cellphones/Internet Lebanon sees higher use of cellphones/Internet

than many other parts of the Arab world.than many other parts of the Arab world. ““Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon saw extensive use Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon saw extensive use

of text messaging to manage demonstrations.of text messaging to manage demonstrations.• Organized protests and helped protestors converge at Organized protests and helped protestors converge at

designated pointsdesignated points• Used to share encouraging information about the Used to share encouraging information about the

sympathies of soldiers who were ostensibly supposed to sympathies of soldiers who were ostensibly supposed to stop demonstrators from reaching central Beirutstop demonstrators from reaching central Beirut

• Used to share photographs that were often later Used to share photographs that were often later uploaded to websites uploaded to websites

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Blogs and the Cedar RevolutionBlogs and the Cedar Revolution

Contrary to some claims, blogs played no Contrary to some claims, blogs played no major role in the Cedar Revolution.major role in the Cedar Revolution.

There were only a few Lebanese blogs in There were only a few Lebanese blogs in existence when it happened.existence when it happened.

Afterwards – a flowering of blogs, primarily Afterwards – a flowering of blogs, primarily among Lebanese expatriates who wanted among Lebanese expatriates who wanted to discuss what was happening.to discuss what was happening.

Mostly upper middle classes – not ‘voices Mostly upper middle classes – not ‘voices of the street.’of the street.’

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Revolution’s AftermathRevolution’s Aftermath

Like the Ukraine, the revolution has Like the Ukraine, the revolution has not sustained itself very well.not sustained itself very well.

Repeated assassinations of anti-Repeated assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians.Syrian politicians.

Prominent role of Hezbollah/Israeli Prominent role of Hezbollah/Israeli incursion.incursion.

General sense of chaos, instability – General sense of chaos, instability – not by any stretch of the imagination not by any stretch of the imagination an established democracy.an established democracy.

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BahrainBahrain

Unusual among Arab countries in Unusual among Arab countries in high penetration of the Internet – high penetration of the Internet – nearly a quarter of Bahrainis use it.nearly a quarter of Bahrainis use it.

Also a society which is divided in Also a society which is divided in important ways.important ways.• Shias form a majority of the population.Shias form a majority of the population.• But are effectively excluded from But are effectively excluded from

politics; ruling family and elite are politics; ruling family and elite are Sunni.Sunni.

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Use of Internet by disaffected Use of Internet by disaffected groupsgroups

Both democratic activists and Shia Both democratic activists and Shia activists have common interests (a more activists have common interests (a more democratic Bahrain would give Shias more democratic Bahrain would give Shias more power).power).

Have used Internet to articulate a political Have used Internet to articulate a political voice that they can’t in mainstream voice that they can’t in mainstream newspapers.newspapers.

Bahrain Online (founded by Ali Bahrain Online (founded by Ali Abduleman) hosts web forums that Abduleman) hosts web forums that vigorously debate politics.vigorously debate politics.

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Organized dissidenceOrganized dissidence

Blogs and cellphones have gone together Blogs and cellphones have gone together to organize flash protests.to organize flash protests.

Abdulemam has used WWW, email and Abdulemam has used WWW, email and text messages to organize flash protests.text messages to organize flash protests.

Opposition groups have used Bahrain Opposition groups have used Bahrain Online to organize protests and strikes.Online to organize protests and strikes.

Has led to significant political disaffection, Has led to significant political disaffection, culminating in a dramatic set of events in culminating in a dramatic set of events in 2005.2005.

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UN ReportUN Report Abdulemam and colleagues were arrested Abdulemam and colleagues were arrested

in February 2005 for publishing a critical in February 2005 for publishing a critical UN human rights report on their website.UN human rights report on their website.

Before arrest was even announced, a Before arrest was even announced, a consortium of bloggers created a Free Ali consortium of bloggers created a Free Ali web page.web page.

This set in motion mass protests, and the This set in motion mass protests, and the involvement of Shia newspapers and involvement of Shia newspapers and liberal newspapers in denouncing the liberal newspapers in denouncing the arrests.arrests.

80,000 people involved in street 80,000 people involved in street demonstrations.demonstrations.

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Action on the StreetAction on the Street

Demonstrations used ‘moblogs’ Demonstrations used ‘moblogs’ pairings of protestors with mobile pairings of protestors with mobile phones to take photos and bloggers phones to take photos and bloggers with computers to publish them.with computers to publish them.

Photos spread across Internet.Photos spread across Internet. Al Jazeera started broadcasting the Al Jazeera started broadcasting the

protests live.protests live. Abdulemam freed after fifteen days. Abdulemam freed after fifteen days.

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Other Arab bloggersOther Arab bloggers This is a success story for democracy.This is a success story for democracy. However, as Marc Lynch has pointed out, Western However, as Marc Lynch has pointed out, Western

commentators tend to emphasise pro-democracy commentators tend to emphasise pro-democracy bloggers and de-emphasize others, who have bloggers and de-emphasize others, who have differing (some legitimate, some problematic) differing (some legitimate, some problematic) views of politics and society.views of politics and society.

Islamic commentators have been vigorous Islamic commentators have been vigorous adopters of new technologies.adopters of new technologies.

Muslim Brotherhood has established an important Muslim Brotherhood has established an important presence in the Egyptian blogosphere.presence in the Egyptian blogosphere.

Terrorist groups have had success in using WWW Terrorist groups have had success in using WWW video – through circulation of beheading videos, video – through circulation of beheading videos, video messages from their leaders etc.video messages from their leaders etc.

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The Internet in Putin’s RussiaThe Internet in Putin’s Russia

Russia – presents yet another model of the relationship Russia – presents yet another model of the relationship between the Internet and the government.between the Internet and the government.

Not an authoritarian regime – but not very democratic Not an authoritarian regime – but not very democratic either.either.

In theory – Internet could serve as an alternative to a In theory – Internet could serve as an alternative to a media sector that is only weakly democratic.media sector that is only weakly democratic.

TV stations are controlled by government friendly TV stations are controlled by government friendly forces.forces.

Newspapers are either ineffective, or pro-government.Newspapers are either ineffective, or pro-government. But the Internet doesn’t actually provide much in the But the Internet doesn’t actually provide much in the

way of alternative voices – why?way of alternative voices – why?

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Indirect State controlIndirect State control

Not censorship as in ChinaNot censorship as in China• Govt owns the largest ISP, and plays a Govt owns the largest ISP, and plays a

dominant role in the market.dominant role in the market.• Laws require that ISPs allow govt access Laws require that ISPs allow govt access

to incoming and outgoing traffic.to incoming and outgoing traffic.• Yet the government doesn’t use these to Yet the government doesn’t use these to

block traffic as in other parts of the block traffic as in other parts of the world.world.

Instead, a softer approach.Instead, a softer approach.

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Soft authoritarianismSoft authoritarianism

Russian government has an Internet policy Russian government has an Internet policy similar to that for the normal media.similar to that for the normal media.

Shadowy backers for many online news Shadowy backers for many online news sources, whom the Kremlin can influence.sources, whom the Kremlin can influence.

Denunciations of alternative voices as Denunciations of alternative voices as being catspaws for “foreign” interests.being catspaws for “foreign” interests.

This means that much of the information This means that much of the information available online for Russians is, effectively, available online for Russians is, effectively, propaganda.propaganda.

More subtle – but also perhaps more More subtle – but also perhaps more effective in the long run.effective in the long run.

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Lessons of Democracy and the InternetLessons of Democracy and the Internet

Different technologies do have different Different technologies do have different consequences.consequences.

We see how cellphone text messaging is the We see how cellphone text messaging is the medium of choice for organizing protests.medium of choice for organizing protests.

Blogs may play an important role (within Blogs may play an important role (within limits) in getting message out to others, and limits) in getting message out to others, and in framing events.in framing events.

YouTube and other media are likely to YouTube and other media are likely to become more important over time, given become more important over time, given role played by TV in existing protests.role played by TV in existing protests.

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Limits of InternetLimits of Internet Internet based technologies and cellphones may Internet based technologies and cellphones may

have improved chances for mobilizing protests.have improved chances for mobilizing protests. But this is not enough in itself to create But this is not enough in itself to create

democracy.democracy. Subsequent histories of Lebanon and Ukraine Subsequent histories of Lebanon and Ukraine

suggest that protests and the removal of the suggest that protests and the removal of the authoritarian ruler are not enough on their own to authoritarian ruler are not enough on their own to create successful democracies.create successful democracies.

It may be that ‘instant protest’ technologies may It may be that ‘instant protest’ technologies may be a bad thing over the longer term.be a bad thing over the longer term.• Mean that serious party organizations are less likely to Mean that serious party organizations are less likely to

be built up.be built up.

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Internet and civil societyInternet and civil society

As McKinnon suggests – it may well be that As McKinnon suggests – it may well be that the Internet is more important in the long the Internet is more important in the long run because it creates a civil society.run because it creates a civil society.

Forms of cultural expression and debate Forms of cultural expression and debate that are outside the control of the state.that are outside the control of the state.

““American Idol” type show as the avatar of American Idol” type show as the avatar of democracy.democracy.

Evidence from eighteenth century England Evidence from eighteenth century England and elsewhere that this was important and elsewhere that this was important over the longer run.over the longer run.