Clara Y. Yatini National Institute of Aeronautics and...
Transcript of Clara Y. Yatini National Institute of Aeronautics and...
Space Weather
Refers to condition on the Sun and in the solar wind,
magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere that can influence
the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-
based technological system
Changes in the radiative output from the Sun directly affect
the state of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere through the
excitation and ionization of atoms and molecules
The solar wind moves outward from the Sun and impinges on
Earth. Substorms are relatively short-lived magnetosphere
response to aolar wind. Geomagnetic storms are sustained,
long-lived response to a prolonged period of solar wind flow
Most magnetospheric processes are manifested in some way by
changes in the properties of ionosphere and thermosphere
(electrical currents, auroral emission, scintillation, etc.)
Radio Communication
HF radio wave communication is still used in isolated area,
search and rescue efforts, and military operations
Navigation system
GPS uses radio waves to calculate location accurately. Errors
in positioning can result when signals is influenced by
ionospheric condition which is affected by space weather.
Satellite system
As a new developer of satellite
Geomagnetic survey and mapping
Power system?
In progress to understand such impact in low latitude region
Capabilities in analyzing space weather and its
impact
Forecasting and warning of space weather and
its impact
Information services
Solar Activity
Space Environment
Geo and Space Magnetism
Ionosphere (including satellite and terrestrial
communication)
SOLAR ACTIVITY
RESEARCH
SPACE ENVIRONMENT Solar
system
Dynamics
• Satellite perturbation
• Information on space debris
RESEARCH ON
REGIONAL MAGNETIC
FIELD
RESEARCH ON
REGIONAL
IONOSPHERE
RESEARCH ON
EQUATORIAL UPPER
ATMOSFER
• Information on
terrestrial magnetic
activity
PROGRAMME INTEGRATION
• Solar activity prediction
• Prediction of the impact of solar activity, etc
• Communication frequency prediction
• Ionospheric correction for position determination
• Information on communication disturbance
• Information on global atmospheric circulation
• Information on prediction of global
atmospheric change
• Solar activity prediction and the identification of the nature and mechanisms of flares, CMEs, etc.
Solar Flare prediction based on: - sunspot number
- area
- magnetic class
- position on solar hemisphere
to predict the occurence of solar flare (C, M, and X class) in percentage, with accuracy ±75%
• Preliminary model and the prediction of the impact of solar activity to the Earth (Sun-Earth connection), including the impact on ionosphere, geomagnetic field and climate parameters
CME/flare position – major geomagnetic
storm
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SOLAR RADIO SPECTROGRAPH - SN 4000
RADIO SPECTRUM : 18 MHz – 1.8 GHz
OPERATING NOW: 56 MHz – 1.8 GHz
Solar Radio Burst;
- velocity from solar spectra
- precursor of geomagnetic storm, travel time
Type II Radio
Burst on
June 13,
2010
V = 700
km/s
Type III radio burst
Shows the
movement of
energetic
electron after
flare
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PUKUL (UT)
Type III solar radio burst, Feb 12,
2010
X-ray flux
Satellite’s anomaly due to energetic particles
Satelit FUSE (1) (25 November 2001)
Distribution of electron E> 30 keV Distribution of proton: 80 < E < 240 keV
(N. Ahmad, et al)
Satellite’s anomaly due to geomagnetic activity Aktivitas Geomagnet Tahun 1998
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p*1
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GFO Galaxy 4
GOES 9
Gambar 3-7 : Kejadian anomali beberapa satelit tahun 1998
Aktivitas Geomagnet Tahun 2000
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IMAGE Galaxy 8
Gambar 3-9 : Kejadian anomali beberapa satelit tahun 2000
1990 – 2001
58% of
satellite
anomalies
related with
geomagnetic
storm
(N. Ahmad, et al)
Most anomalies are caused by space weather through
the interaction of high energetic particles on
satellite system and the effects of geomagnetic
activity especially when the storm events.
SIAS:
As a tool of early warning system for satellite
operation by using
- energy and flux of energetic proton and electron
- Kp indices
Gambar 3-6 : Tampilan sub menu utama A (parameter cuaca antariksa)
Gambar 3-7 : Tampilan sub menu indeks Kp (N. Ahmad, et al)
Sejak 1 jam yang lalu hingga 1 jam ke depan sebanyak 1 benda antariksa melintasi Indonesia dengan ketinggian kurang dari 200 km. Pada umumnya suatu benda dikatakan
jatuh jika ketinggiannya mencapai 122 km. Last update: 2011-06-01 08:06:51 WIB
http://orbit.dirgantara-
lapan.or.id
Research on magnetic pulses as the precursor
of geomagnetic storm/substorm
Modelling on variation of diurnal regional
magnetic disturbances
Study on earthquake precursor using some
methods (WTMM, Flicker Noise Spectroscopy,
Polarization, Box Counting, etc)
Study of the relation of geomagnetic storm
with Geomagnetic Induced Current (GIC)
- Identification of magnetic pulse, characteristics and occurence
- Real time monitoring of magnetic storm and magnetospheric substorm using ground-based magnetometer
- To predict the occurence of geomagnetic storm/substorm
Modelling on variation of diurnal regional magnetic
disturbances
Daily variation of geomagnetic H component observed from
Manado observatory on 1 – 5 August (left) with the quiet day plot,
and the geomagnetic disturbance (right). The arrow in right figure
shows the start time of the disturbance
(M. Ruhimat et al)
Some anomalies are appeared before the Aceh earthquake
on Dec 26, 2004 by analyzing the ULF signal
STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR
Using some methods: polarization, transfer function, fractal before the
Nias (mar 28, 2005) and Aceh (December 26, 2004) earthquakes
(S. Saroso, et al)
LOCATION :
• BIAK
• PONTIANAK
• TANJUNGSARI
• KOTOTABANG
• PARE-PARE
• KUPANG
• MENADO
-COLLABORATION with Kyushu univ
(MAGDAS) and Nagoya univ.
• RESOLUTION 1 SEC
• NEAR REAL TIME
OBJECT
OBSERVATION
• Magnetic field
component : D, H, Z
• Pi 2, Pi 3
• Pc 3, Pc 4, Pc 5
FLUXGATE MAGNETOMETER
Regional Ionospheric Research:
Ionospheric dynamics and its impact to
- Terrestrial communication
- Satelitte comunication
- Navigation; satellite-based position determination
1. Models to predict the condition of the ionosphere
2. Software for predicting the condition of ionosphere .
3. Information for mitigation of ionospheric dynamics
Ionosphere:
T indices, E/F/Es layers, spread F, TEC, scintillation, mapping, radio communication (frequency, fading, etc),
OBSERVATION AND STUDY OF EQUATORIAL MIDDLE AND UPPER
ATMOSPHERE
ANTENNA EAR
SPD KOTOTABANG
ANTENNA MF RADAR
SPD PONTIANAK
Observations of middle and upper Atmosphere
dynamics at Pontianak dan Kototabang
Airglow observations at
Kototabang
BIAK:
Ionosonda,
Magnetometer,
WPR, BLR, Medac
Rencana: Ozon, Ion
Oblique, Track
Satelit, ISM,
MANADO :
Ionosonda, TEC
Rencana : Magnetometer, Kom. Dat, ISM,
KUPANG : Ionosonda, AWS,
Magnetometer,
Rencana : KomDat,
TEC, Ion Oblique
KOTOTABANG:
EAR, Cuaca, RASound, MWR, Airglow, Ceilometer, ComSys, AWS, ORG, IOnosonda
Rencana : ISM, TECmeter, Magnetometer, Ionosonda, VHF RadarSystem , Kom Data,
TANJUNGSARI : Teleskop, Ionosonda, Radio Spektrograf, TEC meter, AWS, Airglow Monitor
Rencana : H-alpha, Ionsonda Oblique, Sistem Komdat ISM, F.P. Interfer. PAMEUNGPEUK:
Ionosonda, Meteo, MF Radar
Rencana : Magnetometer, Alat Uji Kom, Sistem Komdata, Teleskop Optik, MWR,
WATUKOSEK:
BREWER Spectr, Ozon, Meteo,Telescope Matahari
Rencana : Magnetometer, Alat uji kom, Komdat,
INSTRUMENTATION NETWORK
SOLAR, SPACE DYNAMICS, DAN ATMOSPHERE OBSERVATION
Observation and Information of Space Weather.
Needs:
- Real time solar data
- Real time space-based solar and interplanetary data
- Knowledge in predicting the solar activity
- Knowledge in predicting the space weather and its impact
Collaboration between researchers, and technical training (Sun and Sun-Earth connection)
INFORMATION AND SERVICES
RADIO FREQUENCY COMMUNICATION PREDICTION:
ROUTINE :
QUARTERLY PREDICTION : -- REGIONAL GOVERNMENT
(REGENCY etc)
MONTHLY PREDICTION : MILITARY , POLICE
WEBSITE : http://bdg.lapan.go.id/
• SOLAR ACTIVITY ( SUNSPOT, FLARE)
• IONOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ( FoF2 , HF2, etc)
• GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY (Pi, Pc)
• METEORITES AND SPACE DEBRIS
• FREQUENCY PREDICTION FOR RADIO COMMUNICATION
Public Outreach: Space Weather Seminar, Public Speaking, Training,
Bulletin (Quarterly), Open House, Stargazing
Application and Dissemination 1. Information service for prediction of communication
frequency
2. Information of real time ionogram.
Monitoring Ionogram Real Time (MIRT) system
Automatic Position Reporting System (APRS).
Information of real time canal evaluation.
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ISWI and MAGDAS School 2012
Bandung 17 – 26 September 2012
Organizers:
- NASA
- Space Environment Research Center (SERC)
- National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
of Indonesia (LAPAN)