Claire Craig - Future of Cities

Future of Cities:Evidence for Active Cities

2 Foresight Future of Cities

Thinking about the future has a long history – some things come to pass…

Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902

Letchworth Garden City, 2013

Uxcester Garden City, 2015


… others ideas to varying degrees

1979

Motopia, 1963

Post-disaster housing, 2009

Future cities are Active Cities



In conversation with Whitehall departments:

DfT: Future Transport PolicyDH: GBP 17 billion savings

In conversation with over 20 local authorities, specifically

highlighted in relation to:

Social inequalityAttractiveness

Low carbon

Interest is widespread

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Enhancing potential evidence-based support for long-term decision-making

Foresight Future of Cities

Greater availability of data is driving new

analytical approaches

Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for

Active Cities development


Heritage

Attractiveness of place

Creative Economy

Teacher attraction & retention

Housing

Student performance

School capacity

Land availability

Quality urban form

EmploymentWell-being

Minimising isolation & loneliness

Neighbourliness

Cultural events& activitiesUniversities

Innovation

Economic productivity

Connectivity

New technology

Agglomeration opportunities

Short commute

Strong labour marketActive travel

Travel to work

Challenges for evidence:1. Interdependent nature of cities

ICT infrastructure


Challenges for evidence:2. Long time horizons of influence

New towns

Green beltsCity deals

GLAService economy

Railway investment

Devolution

Municipal bonds

Car-oriented development

Digital technologies

Cotton trade

Canals

National Grid

Growth of UK Ports

Brownfielddevelopment

Welfare state

Shipbuilding

Imp

ort

ance

of

citi

es a

s au

ton

om

ou

s u

nit

s

2000s1900s1800s

Increasing obesity levels

City networks

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Evidence can impact on long-term and cross-sectoral


£3,200 of lifetime benefits for every £1 invested in use

of broader evidence and new analytics

Medway project successfully supported young people

into education and employment, through drawing on

wider range of evidence

Wide and long term impacts on individuals and society

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Foresight response 1:Diverse evidence & methods


Major city empowerment

London-centric

Smaller cities focus

Baseline 2037

“What-if” scenarios

Speculative design

Review of evidence Future projections

Data analytics and modelling

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Foresight response 2:Co-creation in local realities


For evidence to create buy-in and effect long-term impact, essential to have co-creation approaches to development of scientific evidence base

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Bristol Foresight project


Working with Bristol City Council on a 50 year

‘living vision’ and agreed goals for a liveable city

13 Foresight: Future of Cities

To develop an evidence base to inform action for the wicked, complex issues affecting the future of our cities, we need to include diverse range of sources using potentially unfamiliar methods.

For evidence to create buy-in and effect long-term impact, collaborative, co-creation approaches to development of a scientific evidence base are essential.

Scientific evidence and rigorous science have broad reach.

Conclusions

Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected] .

@foresightgovuk

www.gov.uk/go-science

Claire Craig - Future of Cities

Environment

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