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Transcript of Citywire montreux new brand (tmv 11 may 2011)
Standard Life Investments
This document is intended for investment professionals only and must not be relied on by anyone else
May 2011
Ways to take risk that rewards in different scenarios
2
Standard Life Investments
• Premier investment house responsible for €183.1bn of assets
• Third party assets of €83.6bn
• Strong active management track record in traditional asset classes
• Heritage of active asset allocation expertise
Source: Standard Life Investments, 31 December 2010An exchange rate of £1:€1.16745 as at 31 December 2010 has been used
Focus on delivering consistent and repeatable outperformance
3
• Objective Cash benchmark* Benchmark +5%p.a. (gross of fees) performance target over rolling 3 year basis*
• Low volatility Expect 1/3 to 1/2 the risk of equity investment Expected range: 4% to 8% Robust and comprehensive risk controls
• Strategy track record from 2006
• UCITS III funds: UK Unit Trust - £7.3bn** Lux SICAV - € 796m**
Portfolio benchmark is UK 6mth Libor . Performance target is 6mth Libor +5% p.a. (gross of fees) over a rolling 3 year basis.** as at 31st March
Global Absolute Return Strategies Portfolio
4
A complicated outlook
Markets will be volatile in the face of policy decisions and political events
Yes …..
• Global economic recovery has positive momentum
• Companies making profits and putting cash flow to work
But …..
• Policy makers still dealing with aftershocks of the financial crisis
• Both monetary and fiscal policy risks remain high
5Source: RiskMetrics, 28 February 2011
Understanding risk is key
Historical Stresses as of end of February 2011
-30 -28 -26 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Bank Meltdown 2008 (September 12 - October 15, 2008)
Subprime Debacle 2007 (July 15 - August 15, 2007)
Emerging Market Sell-Off 2006 (May 1 - June 8,2006)
Bond Sell-Off (June 14 - July 31, 2003)
Bond Rally (May 1 - June 13, 2003)
Gulf War 2 (March 1-21,2003)
Equity Rally (October 10 - November 27,2002)
Equity Sell-Off (August 23 - October 9, 2002)
Sept 11th
Tech Wreck (April 7- 14, 2000)
Russian/LTCM
Asian Crisis 1997
Mexican Crisis 1995
Rate Rise 94
Gulf War 1990
Black Monday 1987
% Move
Gars SP 500 move over same period
Historical Stresses as of end of February 2011
-30 -28 -26 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Bank Meltdown 2008 (September 12 - October 15, 2008)
Subprime Debacle 2007 (July 15 - August 15, 2007)
Emerging Market Sell-Off 2006 (May 1 - June 8,2006)
Bond Sell-Off (June 14 - July 31, 2003)
Bond Rally (May 1 - June 13, 2003)
Gulf War 2 (March 1-21,2003)
Equity Rally (October 10 - November 27,2002)
Equity Sell-Off (August 23 - October 9, 2002)
Sept 11th
Tech Wreck (April 7- 14, 2000)
Russian/LTCM
Asian Crisis 1997
Mexican Crisis 1995
Rate Rise 94
Gulf War 1990
Black Monday 1987
% Move
Gars SP 500 move over same period
Historical Stresses as of end of February 2011
6
Correlations that were low …
Pre-crisis correlations low
Source: HSBC
7
… are now harder to hedge
Post-crisis correlations remain high
Source: HSBC
8
Global Absolute Return Strategies SICAV performance
Source: Standard Life Investments, gross performance from 12/6/2006 to 31/03/2011* Source: Standard Life Investments simulated € performance of £, institutional pooled pension portfolio to the 26 January 2011. GARS SICAV portfolio performance from the 27 January 2011 ** Source: Thomson Datastream, 6 month Euribor and MSCI World (£)
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
Jun/
06
Aug/0
6
Oct/0
6
Dec/0
6
Feb/0
7
Apr/0
7
Jun/
07
Aug/0
7
Oct/0
7
Dec/0
7
Feb/0
8
Apr/0
8
Jun/
08
Aug/0
8
Oct/0
8
Dec/0
8
Feb/0
9
Apr/0
9
Jun/
09
Aug/0
9
Oct/0
9
Dec/0
9
Feb/1
0
Apr/1
0
Jun/
10
Aug/1
0
Oct/1
0
Dec/1
0
Feb/1
1
€ GARS (gross) * Global Equities ** Cash (Euribor) ** Target Return (gross)
VolatilityGlobal Equities 15.6%GARS SICAV 6.2%(annualised, using monthly data from 01/07/2006 to 31/03/2011)
9
Global Absolute Return Strategies performance
Source: Standard Life Investments, gross performance from 12/6/2006 to 31/03/2011* Source: Standard Life Investments simulated € performance of £, institutional pooled pension portfolio to the 26 January 2011. GARS SICAV portfolio performance from the 27 January 2011 ** Source: Thomson Datastream, 6 month Euribor and MSCI World
2.34.8
-0.6
0.2 0.6 0.2
6.7
15.3
10.07.8
11.3
20.1
-4.5
7.3
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.81.1 1.5
4.9 4.5
-3.3
2.2
11.0
-0.8-3.6
-0.8
8.7
27.9
4.1
-2.0
20.1
26.7
-37.2
-1.2
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Mar'11 YTD 1 Year(p.a.)
2 Years(p.a.)
3 Years(p.a.)
4 Years(p.a.)
2010 2009 2008 2007
% R
etu
rn
GARS (gross)* 6 Month Euribor ** Global Equities (€) **
10
• Many investors have a short time horizon
• Markets inefficient on time horizons greater than 1 year
• Exploitable only by those who are: Diligent Creative Patient
• A broad range of investment ideas remains important
Our Investment Philosophy
11
GARS investment approach
Market returns
• Equities, Bonds and Property
• Good long term return expectations
• But can be negative returns over shorter periods
Stock selection
• Active stock selection
• Added value through our approach
Relative value
• Assess asset allocation relationships
• Where their relative valuation is strained
• We exploit their realignment
Directional
• Specific directional investment ideas
• In markets with little or no long term risk premium
• With significant return potential on a 3 yr view
TRADITIONAL
ADVANCED
Enduring diversity – through a wider opportunity set
A broad range of return opportunities
12
Market returns
Directional
Relative Value
Stock Selection
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-11
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 December 2006 - 31 March 2011
Dynamic diversification
13
Being paid to wait
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Australian 2Y 2Y rates Australian 2y rates
Rolling down a steep Australian interest rate curve
Ways to take risk that rewards in different scenarios
Source: Bloomberg
14
Holding risk efficiently
Source: Bloomberg, 04 May 2011
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Implementation date Kospi * Eurostoxx 600 ** 03/11/10=100
Source: Bloomberg
Ways to take risk that rewards in different scenarios
Kospi vs Eurostoxx
15Understanding the risks shows the potential rewards
Diverse pool of return-seeking positions
A more informative view
Share of physical allocation
Share of market risk exposure
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011* Please note that the strategy Relative Variance Income is an amalgamation of three strategies previously listed individually as Eurostoxx vs. S&P variance, Nikkei vs. S&P Variance, Nikkei vs. FTSE Variance and DAX vs. S&P Variance
Cash & Other34.17%
UK Equity13.97%
European Equity9.22%
Global Index-Linked Bonds8.17%
UK Corporate Bonds8.14%
EU Corporate Bonds8.09%
Global Equity7.33%
HY Credit4.68%
Russian Equity3.27%
US Equity2.95% Global Equity
High Yield Credit
Russian Equity
US Equity
European Equity
UK Equity
UK corporate bonds
Global Inflation-linked Bonds
European Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
US Long Bond Yields (Forward Start)
Long US Dollar vs EuroLong Equity Variance
Japanese Interest Rates
Long US Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Australian short-term interest rates
Swedish short-term interest rates
Long Polish Zloty vs Czech Koruna
European Bond Yield steepener
Financial Sector vs Broad Credit
Australian vs Japanese Medium-term Interest Rates
Korean Equity vs European Equity
Broad vs Financial Sector Equity
US Equity Large vs Small Cap
Relative Variance Income
China Equity vs UK Equity Volatility
Stock Selection
FTSE 100 DividendsFX Hedging
16
Risk profile of multi-market return strategy
• The portfolio is exposed to multiple diversified market risks
• 26.0% is total stand-alone investment risk chasing returns
• Equivalent equity volatility is 20.6%
• Independent risk analysis shows the benefits of investment diversification
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011* Please note that the strategy Relative Variance Income is an amalgamation of three strategies previously listed individually as Eurostoxx vs. S&P variance, Nikkei vs. S&P Variance, Nikkei vs. FTSE Variance and DAX vs. S&P Variance
To
tal
stan
d-a
lon
e ri
sk
20.1%
5.9%
1%
6%
11%
16%
21%
26%
Glo
bal E
quity
Hig
h Y
ield
Cre
dit
Rus
sian
Equ
ityU
S E
quity
Eur
opea
n E
quity
UK
Equ
ity
UK
Inve
stm
ent G
rade
Cor
pora
te B
onds
Glo
bal I
nfla
tion-
linke
d B
onds
EU
Inve
stm
ent G
rade
Cor
pora
te B
onds
US
Lon
g B
ond
Yie
lds
(For
war
d S
tart)
Long
US
Dol
lar v
s E
uro
Long
Equ
ity V
aria
nce
Japa
nese
Inte
rest
Rat
es
Long
US
Dol
lar v
s Ja
pane
se Y
en
Aus
tralia
n S
hort-
term
Inte
rest
Rat
es
Sw
edis
h S
hort-
term
Inte
rest
Rat
es
Long
Pol
ish
Zlot
y vs
Cze
ch K
orun
a FX
Hed
ging
Eur
opea
n B
ond
Yie
ld S
teep
ener
FTS
E 1
00 D
ivid
ends
Aus
tralia
n vs
Jap
anes
e M
ediu
m-te
rm In
tere
st R
ates
Fina
ncia
l Sec
tor v
Bro
ad C
redi
t
KO
SP
IKor
ean
Equ
ity v
s E
urop
ean
Equ
ity
Bro
ad v
Fin
anci
al S
ecto
r Equ
ity
US
Equ
ity L
arge
vs
Sm
all C
ap
Rel
ativ
e V
aria
nce
Inco
me
Chi
nese
Equ
ity v
s U
K E
quity
Vol
atili
tyS
tock
Sel
ectio
nD
iver
sific
atio
n
Exp
ecte
d V
olat
ility
Market returns
Directional
Stock selection
Diversification benefits
Relative value
Expected volatility
17
Portfolio outlook / themes
• Interest rates continue to remain low – but increasingly differentiated outlook Aus vs. Japan relative interest rates US long bond yields (forward starting)
• Balance sheet strength US Large Cap v Small Cap High Yield
• Income from carry Investment Grade Credit High Yield
• Financial crisis has created imbalances that persist and recur Financial Credit v Main Credit Short Euro Korea Equity v European Equity
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011
18
Summary
• Investors are warned about continued market volatility, long-running aftershocks of the financial crisis, high correlation between assets especially the risks of policy errors and political disturbances in a world of debt deleveraging.
• Investors need to take risk that is rewarding in a number of different scenarios
• This investment philosophy gives more certainty of return with a fraction of the traditional ‘beta’ risk
Appendices
20
Strategic Research and Idea Generation
• Asset Class Team Views• Fundamental Economic Analysis
• Quantitative Modelling• Valuation Modelling
MAI Risk Analysis
• Position sizing• Diversification measurement
• Scenario analysis
Multi-Asset Management
• Strategy implementation• Final position size
• Execution
Independent Governance and OversightIndependent Risk Management, Counterparty Risk Management, Investment Governance
• Debate• Review• Approve
Strategic Investment Group (SIG)
GARS - Conviction, Diversification and Liquidity
Investment Process
21
Team 6
Ave. Yrs in Industry 20
Ave. Years at Company 12
Team 5
Ave. Yrs in Industry 9
Ave. Years at Company 4
Strategic Research and Idea Generation
MAI Risk Analysis
Multi-Asset Management
(Andrew Milligan)(Dr Brian Fleming)
Multi Asset Investing Team - Euan Munro
Team 13
Ave. Yrs in Industry 17
Ave. Years at Company 10
Asset Class
Teams
Independent Governance & Risk Oversight
An integrated, experienced and well resourced team extracting maximum value from investment strategies
(Guy Stern)GARS Portfolio ManagersEuan MunroGuy SternDavid MillarDavid Jubb
Team
22
Strategic Investment Group
Key attributes: Foremost strategic thinkers Diversity of backgrounds Regular meetings to discuss portfolio Assess new ideas from across the asset class desks Forum to examine, test and approve multi-asset strategies
An experienced and proven team
Source: Standard Life Investments, 31 March 2011
Name Position Investment experience (years)
Euan Munro (Chair) Director of Multi-Asset Investing and Fixed Income 19
Guy Stern Head of Multi-Asset Management 28
Andrew Milligan Head of Global Strategy 32
Stan Pearson Head of European Equities 27
Andrew Sutherland Head of Credit and Aggregate 30
Neil Matheson Senior Vice-President, Investment Strategy 29
Dr Brian Fleming Head of Multi-Asset Risk and Structuring 9
Dr Richard Batty Global Investment Strategist 16
Frances Hudson Global Thematic Strategist 25
David Jubb Investment Director, Multi-Asset Investing 21
David Millar Investment Director, Multi-Asset Investing 22
Jason Hepner Investment Director, Global Strategy 13
23
Risk management
• Convention is to constrain risk by setting asset allocation limits
• This restrictive approach is superseded by our risk based approach
• Portfolio risk restrictions: Strategy risk limit, 40% of aggregate stand alone risk Sub-strategy risk limit, 30% of aggregate stand alone risk
• Benefits: Widest possible investment universe / more scope for finding returns and diversity Only hold assets where we have conviction / insight All strategies can contribute significantly to returns
24
Individual strategies risk, 31 March 2011Overall TE: 5.94% 0.29 x MSWORLD equity vol (20.6%)
VaR: 292,341,175 (99%, 1 year) ExposureRisk Categories Stand-alone Position-removal 30.00% Limit Nominal Int. rates (yr) Infln. (yr) Credit (yr) VegaUS forward-start duration 2.03% 0.48% 7.80% 15.32% -1.4 0.0 0.0 0.00%Long USD v EUR 1.90% 0.02% 7.29% 14.68% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Global equity 1.81% 0.49% 6.94% 8.19% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Australian v Japanese medium-term duration 1.48% 0.37% 5.68% 25.41% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
High yield credit 1.47% 0.45% 5.64% 11.20% -0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.00%
Russian Equity 1.43% 0.36% 5.48% 3.27% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Financial sector v broad credit 1.22% 0.03% 4.69% 20.12% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00%
Long equity variance 1.17% -0.22% 4.50% 0.13% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.13%
KOSPI v Eurostoxx 1.15% 0.05% 4.41% 4.72% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Broad v financial sector equity 1.14% -0.21% 4.36% 4.43% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
US equity large v small cap 1.13% -0.25% 4.34% 9.31% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Relative variance income 1.12% 0.10% 4.29% 0.14% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01%
US equity 1.05% 0.36% 4.03% 4.54% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Japanese duration 1.05% -0.06% 4.02% 8.82% -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.00%
European equity 1.02% 0.31% 3.91% 3.96% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
UK equity 0.90% 0.31% 3.45% 4.29% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Long USD v JPY 0.69% 0.00% 2.63% 5.79% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Stock Selection 0.66% 0.04% 2.52% 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Australian short-term interest rates 0.64% 0.06% 2.44% 29.25% -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.00%
UK corporate bonds 0.63% 0.20% 2.42% 8.14% -0.5 0.0 -0.5 0.00%
Global index-linked bonds 0.59% 0.14% 2.25% 8.17% -0.8 0.8 0.0 0.00%
Swedish short-term interest rates 0.46% 0.05% 1.75% 30.24% -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Long PLN v CZK 0.45% 0.10% 1.71% 4.64% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
EU corporate bonds 0.34% 0.12% 1.31% 8.09% -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.00%
FX Hedging 0.26% 0.04% 0.99% 6.62% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
HSCEI v FTSE Variance 0.24% 0.00% 0.92% 0.02% 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.01%
European swaption steepener 0.03% 0.01% 0.11% 2.47% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
FTSE dividends 0.03% 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Cash 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.66% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Total: 26.07% 3.36% Gross ex cash: 241.95% -5.9 0.8 -1.3 0.13%
MSWORLD multiple: 1.26 Benchmark: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Diversification: 20.13%
Barrier: 2.58%
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011* Please note that the strategy Relative Variance Income is an amalgamation of three strategies previously listed individually as Eurostoxx vs. S&P variance, Nikkei vs. S&P Variance, Nikkei vs. FTSE Variance and DAX vs. S&P Variance
25Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011
Strategy groupings risk, 31 March 2011
Overall TE: 5.94% 0.29 x MSWORLD equity vol (20.6%)VaR: 292,341,175 (99%, 1 year) Exposure
Risk Categories Key Stand-alone Position-removal 40.00% Limit Nominal Int. rates (yr) Infln. (yr) Credit (yr) VegaEquities 4.99% 0.28% 29.98% 24.56% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%Duration 4.25% 0.04% 25.51% 67.98% -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%FX 2.36% 0.06% 14.16% 57.49% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%Credit 2.17% 0.79% 13.01% 27.44% -1.0 0.0 -1.3 0.00%Volatility 1.64% -0.12% 9.87% 0.13% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.13%Stock Selection 0.66% 0.04% 3.95% 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%Inflation 0.59% 0.14% 3.52% 8.17% -0.8 0.8 0.0 0.00%Cash 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.66% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Total: 16.65% 1.24% Gross ex cash: 185.76% -5.9 0.8 -1.3 0.13%MSWORLD multiple: 0.81 Benchmark: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00%
Diversification: 10.71%
Barrier: 4.71%
Stand-alone contributions
4.99%
4.25%
2.36%
2.17%
1.64%
0.66%0.59%
Equities
Duration
FX
Credit
Volatility
Stock Selection
Inflation5.94%
10.71%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Equitie
s
Durat
ion FXCre
dit
Volatili
ty
Stock
Sele
ction
Infla
tion
Divers
ificat
ion
Track
ing E
rror
26
V-Masks for individual positions and overall
Source: Standard Life Investments,11 April 2011
UK equity
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
European equity
889398
103108113118123128
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Russian equity
8797
107117127137147157167177
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
US equity
95100105110115120125130135
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
US equity large v small cap
82
87
92
97
102
107
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
KOSPI v Eurostoxx
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Financial sector v broad credit
93949596979899
100101102103
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Global index-linked bonds
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
UK corporate bonds
9092949698
100102104106108
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
EU corporate bonds
93949596979899
100101102
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Australian short-term interest rates
9798989999
100100101101
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Swedish short-term interest rates
9696979798989999
100100101
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
European swaption steepener
98
98
99
99
100
100
101
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Australian v Japanese medium-term duration
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
US forward-start duration
8486889092949698
100102104
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Long PLN v CZK
899193959799
101103105
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Long USD v JPY
90
95
100
105
110
115
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
HSCEI v FTSE variance
9193959799
101103105107109
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Nikkei v S&P variance
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Nikkei v FTSE variance
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Broad v financial sector equity
869196
101106111116121126
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
High yield credit
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Long USD v EUR
82
87
92
97
102
107
112
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Long equity variance
83
88
93
98
103
108
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund
88
93
98
103
108
12
/10
/10
12
/11
/10
12
/12
/10
12
/01
/11
12
/02
/11
12
/03
/11
27
Regular liquidity monitoring
Liquidity Report
Calculated:on:
Fund U222Valuation date 31/03/2011
Total fund value 7,324,225,673Available cash 2,385,399,741
Value of eligible securities 0
5 day 1 month
VolatilityFund 5.94% 61,563,167 125,665,288
Exchange traded derivatives Standalone Risk 5 day 1 month
Required margin (VaR) 5.92% 142,629,202 291,140,639Available cash
Remaining cash 2,242,770,540 2,094,259,103
OTC derivatives Standalone Risk 5 day 1 month
Required collateral (VaR) 3.37% 81,099,531 165,543,725Value of OTC derivatives
Net Requirement 313,056,721 397,500,915 (Cash)Available cash 2,242,770,540 2,094,259,103
Remaining cash 1,929,713,818 1,696,758,188
VaR calculated at 99.0% confidence level, over stated periods (no additional safety factor).
Gross derivative VaR 456,684,364 sum of OTC and ET VaR
Cash cover for 1m VaR 4.7 Cash includes value of OTC derivatives
RAG Status GREEN
-231,957,190
1 std dev
20/04/2011 11:35
2,385,399,741
Considerable cash buffer beyond 99% VaR stress
28
Correlation analysis
• Low correlation to other asset classes
• Good diversification
• Reduces portfolio risk
MS World FTA Govt Libor Eurostoxx SP500 UK Gilts 25+UK Gilts 1-
10Index
Linked Gilts
Sterling Non Gilts AA-
BBB
Em Mkt Bonds
HY BondsLehmans
GlobalGARS
All Share 0.87 -0.29 -0.11 0.89 0.74 -0.22 -0.37 -0.10 -0.06 0.27 0.31 -0.37 0.59
MS World -0.26 -0.09 0.89 0.95 -0.23 -0.30 -0.10 -0.07 0.51 0.58 -0.02 0.50
FTA Govt 0.02 -0.23 -0.26 0.94 0.91 0.73 0.70 0.00 -0.05 0.30 0.20
Libor -0.06 -0.08 0.00 0.06 -0.04 -0.20 -0.09 -0.15 0.07 -0.07
Eurostoxx 0.75 -0.20 -0.28 -0.06 -0.05 0.34 0.38 -0.21 0.47
SP500 -0.23 -0.28 -0.17 -0.11 0.57 0.62 0.14 0.39
UK Gilts 25+ 0.74 0.69 0.67 -0.08 -0.12 0.16 0.24
UK Gilts 1-10 0.65 0.63 0.07 0.01 0.43 0.13
Index Linked Gilts 0.60 0.01 0.12 0.15 0.27
Sterling Non Gilts AA-BBB 0.12 0.18 0.13 0.37
Em Mkt Bonds 0.75 0.54 0.14
HY Bonds 0.56 0.28
Lehmans Global -0.14
Source: Standard Life Investments, correlations calculated from weekly returns from 29 September 2006 to 25 March 2011
29
GARS Q1 2011 share of risk by strategy type
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Equities Duration FX Credit Volatility StockSelection
Inflation Property
% s
hare
of t
otal
ris
k
Quarter 1 2011
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011
30
Global Absolute Return Strategies performance
• Positively biased outcomes
• Much lower spread of outcomes – lower risk during a period of extreme uncertainty
Source: Standard Life Investments, gross performance from 12/6/2006 to 28/02/2011Portfolio performance is based on the £, institutional pooled pension portfolio* Source: Thomson Datastream, MSCI World (£)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Source: Standard Life Investments, gross performance from 12/6/2006 to 28/02/2011* Source: Thomson Datastream, UK 6 month LIBOR and MSCI World (£)Fund performance is based on the institutional pooled pension fund
+ Equities / + GARS
+ Equities / - GARS
- Equities / + GARS
- Equities / - GARS
GARS performing differently to Equity
October 2008
September 2008
Monthly returns
31
Distribution of weekly returns of GARS v MSCI Global Equities
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Weekly % return
No
of
ob
se
rva
tio
ns
GARS (net)
MSCI *
WORSTthree equity weeks
Equity GARS-16.6% -5.5%-9.3% -3.1%-7.1% -3.0%
BESTthree equity weeks
Equity GARS+9.9% +4.3%+8.3% +3.1% +7.6% +3.1%
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 2 3 4 5 6 7 810
Source: Standard Life Investments, net performance from 12/6/2006 to 31/03/2011* Source: Thomson Datastream (net of tracker fund fee)Fund performance is based on the institutional pooled pension fund
9 10 1--9-10
GARS avoids the extreme returnsof equity investing
Source: Standard Life Investments, net performance from 12/6/2006 to 31/03/2011Portfolio performance is based on the £, institutional pooled pension portfolio* Source: Thomson Datastream, MSCI World (£) (net of tracker fund fee)
Returns positively biased
32
Cumulative performance attributionQuarter Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
Number of strategies 13 14 14 15 16 18 22 23 30 34 37 36 35 30 31 35 33 32 34
Stock selection -0.2% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% -0.3% -0.6% 0.0% 0.8% -0.9% -0.5% 1.4% -1.2% -1.0% -0.1% -0.3% -0.6% 0.2% 0.3% -0.5% -0.2%UK Equity 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% -0.1% 0.1% -1.0% -0.3% -0.5% 0.1% -0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 2.9%Global Equity 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% -0.4% -1.3% 0.0% -0.8% -1.1% -0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% -0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 1.8%European Equity 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% -0.1% -0.2% -1.4% -0.4% -1.1% -1.4% -0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%US Equity -0.7% -1.1% -0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%Russian Equity 0.0% 0.0%Investmetn Grade Corporate Bonds 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -0.3% -0.7% 3.0% 2.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% -0.4% 0.2% 7.5%Financial Sector Credit 0.8% 0.4% -0.3% 0.3% -0.9% 0.8% 1.1% -0.1% 2.1%High Yield Credit -0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%Global Inflation-Linked Bonds 0.4% -0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 2.7%Cash 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 4.1%European Property 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% -0.7% -0.4% -1.4%Japanese Property -0.1% -0.7% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.2% -1.7%UK Short-term Interest Rates -0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% -0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 2.8%European Short-term Interest Rates -0.1% 0.1% -1.1% 0.6% 1.8% 1.0% -0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0%Australian Short-term Interest Rates 0.0% -0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2%Swedish Short-term Interest Rates 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%European Bond Yield Steepener 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%US Long Bond Yields (Forward-Start) 0.3% -1.1% -0.1% -0.9%Medium-term European Interest Rates 2.4% 0.9% -0.1% 0.8% 4.0%Medium-term Australian Interest Rates -0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.7%Medium-term UK Interest Rates 0.2% -0.3% -0.1% -0.2%Long-term European Interest Rates 0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% 0.7% 2.7% -0.9% -0.5% 0.5% -0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 2.4%Long-term US Interest Rates 0.2% -0.2% -0.6% 0.5% -0.8% 0.1% -0.8%Long-term Japanese Interest Rates 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% -0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% -0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 5.9%Japanese Interest Rates -0.2% -0.2%UK Inflation Linked Asset Swap 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%Short UK Inflation 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% -0.3% 0.4% -0.4% 1.2% -0.1% -0.4% -0.1% 0.3%UK Equity Volatility 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3%FTSE 100 Dividends 0.0% -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%Nikkei Dividends -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%Long Equity Variance -0.1% -0.1%Long Sterling vs Euro 0.1% -3.1% 1.0% 1.3% -0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% -0.2% -0.1% -0.9%Long Sterling vs South African Rand 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%Long US Dollar vs Sterling 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6%Long US Dollar vs Euro 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% -0.4% -0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% -1.0% 0.5% -0.9% 1.3%Long US Dollar vs Japanese Yen -0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -0.8% 0.5% -0.1% -0.3% 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 0.1% -0.7%Long US Dollar vs South African Rand -0.2% -0.2%Long Swedish Krona vs Euro -0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8%Long Brazilian Real vs Chilean Peso 0.2% -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 0.1%Long Turkish Lira vs Canadian Dollar -0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -0.2%Long Polish Zloty vs Czech Koruna -0.3% 0.4% 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1%Long Brazilian Real vs Japanese Yen -0.4% 1.0% -0.9% -1.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%Long Turkish Lira vs South Aftrican Rand -0.6% 0.3% -0.3%Long Turkish Lira vs Sterling 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%Other FX 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%UK Large v Mid Cap UK equity -0.4% -0.9% -0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% -0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% -0.9% -0.6% -1.2%Swiss Equity vs German Equity 0.0% -0.3% 0.2% -0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.6% -0.1% -1.0%Korean Equity vs Japanese Equity 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%Korean Equity vs European Equity 0.3% -0.1% 0.2%US Large vs US Small Cap Equity 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% -0.7% -0.1% -0.9%Credit Curve Steepener 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%Financial Sector vs Broad Credit -0.6% -0.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% -1.1% 0.7% 0.6%Broad vs Financial Sector Equity 0.1% 0.1%High Yield vs Equity -0.3% -0.6% 1.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.3% -0.1%UK Curve Steepener 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%European vs Japanese Medium Term Interest Rates -0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9%US vs Japanese Medium Term Interest Rates 0.6% 0.9% 1.5%Australian vs Japanese Medium Term Interest Rates 0.1% -0.6% 0.2% -0.3%Japanese vs European Forward-Start Interest Rates 0.5% -0.1% 0.4%US Short-term Swap Spread 0.9% 0.9%UK vs German Short-rates 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8%Australian vs German Short-rates 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%Australian vs US Short-rates -0.2% -0.1% 0.1% -0.2%Swedish vs German Short-rates 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Swedish vs US Short-rates -0.2% -0.2% -0.4%US Inflation vs UK Inflation -0.5% -1.5% 0.0% 0.3% -1.7%USD vs GBP Volatility Spread 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%European Equity Volatility 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1%S&P Call Calendar Spread 0.1% 0.1%German Equity vs UK Equity Relative Volatility -0.2% 2.0% -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 1.7%China Equity vs UK Equity Volatility 0.0% 0.1% -0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%Relative Variance Income -0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% -0.3% -0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 1.7%Residual 0.0% 0.6% -0.5% -0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.8%TOTAL 3.7% 3.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.7% 1.7% -3.7% 0.9% -4.2% 3.4% 0.8% 5.5% 11.3% 1.5% 4.6% 2.2% 4.8% -0.7% 0.2% 42.7%
Cumulative contribution
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011* Please note that the strategy Relative Variance Income is an amalgamation of three strategies previously listed individually as Eurostoxx vs. S&P variance, Nikkei vs. S&P Variance, Nikkei vs. FTSE Variance and DAX vs. S&P Variance
33
Strategy activity in recent quarters
Q2 2010 Q4 2010
Altered RV Swedish Short Term Rates vs. Schatz to vs. US 2 year note futures
HY credit altered to physical holdings
Added European Swaption Steepener 5yr vs. 10yr, 3 years forward
KOPSI vs. Eurostoxx RV Equity
RV credit increased
Added Japanese vs. European long term forward duration
Closed Brazilian Real vs. Chilean Peso
Added Long high Yield Credit (US High Yield CDX, 4.72%)
Euro Short Term Duration altered to Swedish 2yr, 2yrs forward
Relative Value Credit re-entered (Financials vs. Main @ 120bps spread)
Relative Value Duration evolved Bund Future closed (2.87%) and US 10yr future opened (3.64%)
UK short 10yr Inflation position closed (3.42%)
Swedish vs. EUR closed – reached target (9.56%)
Altered Australian Short Term Rates (2yr, 2yr fwd @ 5.53%) to Relative Value Short Term Rates against Schatz futures (2yr German rates, 0.5%)
Q3 2010
Relative Value Equity SMI vs. DAX closed
Long Duration evolved; Buxl 30yr replaced with US Forward Start Duration (30yr vs. 10yr note futures)
Relative Value Short Term Rates evolved; sold US 2yr note futures to pair with Australian 2yr. UK and Swedish Short Term Rates now relative to Schatz
Increased Relative Value Credit
Relative Value Duration evolved again; US 10yr note futures closed, Australian 10yr now paired with Japanese Yen 10yr
Q1 2011
We first took off the short leg of our Japanese v European interest rate strategy before exiting completely
Increased US equity exposure and..
..balanced this by removing short equity variance within the portfolio to produce a long equity variance strategy
We took off short US interest rate legs of Swedish and Australian interest rate strategies to produce directional interest rate positions…
…and moved the Swedish starting 2 year swap position into a spot 2 year swap
We also switched our Short South African Rand position to versus US Dollars from Turkish Lira before exiting
In March we introduced a Russian Equity strategy using ADRs and GDRs…
…and implemented a broad v financial equity strategy to complement our reverse position in the credit markets
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2011
34
US$ vs. Euro
• The recent euro strength against the dollar is expected to be temporary as the euro economy fundamentals remain worse than in the US
• ECB is perceived to be behind the curve and longer term concerns regarding the peripheral economies fiscal position have not gone away
• Despite the move up in the USD in recent years the euro remains expensive
Source: Bloomberg, 29 April 2011
Directional strategy
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
Jan-
08
Apr-0
8
Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Jan-
09
Apr-0
9
Jul-0
9
Oct-09
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0
Jul-1
0
Oct-10
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1
Implementation date € per $
35
Long European Equity Volatility
Source: Bloomberg, 26 April 2011
• The path of stock market performance is likely to be more variable than that priced into Variance for both the DAX and EuroStoxx50
• We believe that our central scenario of slow economic growth will be accompanied by periods of market volatility.
• By buying equity variance contracts at historically low levels of volatility, the fund will benefit from a return to average levels, and more so from any temporary move to more extreme levels if for example equity markets correct
• The strategy is implemented by buying Dec 2012 variance contracts on the Eurostoxx and German DAX equity markets
• We use these positions in the more cyclical markets as volatility is most likely increase further during periods of market stress
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
Eurostoxx variance DAX variance Implementation date
Directional Strategy
36
Australian vs. Japanese 10 year Duration
• A position was initially established in US vs. Japanese 10 year bonds which performed well as the market started to price in QE from the Fed
• Consequently the US leg of this relative value trade was taken out of the fund and switched into Australian 10 year bonds (an existing position) which offered more value and yield pick-up
• Economic data suggests Australia is starting to see some economic headwinds driven by a strengthening currency, rising interest rates and higher raw material prices. This suggests much "good news" on the economy is priced into bond yields
• The danger in Japan is that too much issuance is placing pressure on the JGB market
Source: Bloomberg, 26 April 2011
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
Australian-Japanese 10-year spread Implementation date%
Source: Bloomberg
Relative value strategy
37
Financial Sector vs. Main Index Credit
Source: Bloomberg, 25 April 2011
Relative value strategy
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Reimplementation date iTraxx Financials spread over Main bp
• Financial credit ordinarily trades at a premium to other bonds
• The euro sovereign crisis has hit financials particularly badly recently
• Our expectation is that financials will recover
• This means the spread between iTraxx Sub Financials and iTraxx Main will narrow
• Trade reintroduced in May 2010 at a spread of 110bp
38
Short Bank Equity vs. Long European Equity
Source: Bloomberg, 26 April 2011
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
Implementation date European banks relative to European equities
Relative value strategy• This strategy will benefit from the
underperformance of financial stocks versus the broad stock market in Europe
• In our central slow growth economic scenario we believe that European bank stocks will underperform as additional capital is required to be issued to satisfy new regulatory requirements
• But in our risk case of Eurozone sovereign restructuring the strategy will significantly benefit the fund as bank stocks will underperform even more due to write-downs on their large sovereign debt exposures
• The strategy is implemented by buying Eurostoxx 50 (SX5E) index futures and selling Eurostoxx bank (SX7E) index futures
39
Global Absolute Return Strategies
Benchmark
Performance target
Robust risk control
Charges
Assets under management
Bloomberg
• 6 month Euribor
• 6 month Euribor + 5 % (Gross of fees) over a 3 year rolling basis
• Expected tracking error range: 4% to 8%*
• Sophisticated portfolio
• Retail 1.60% AMC, 1.65% TER**
• Institutional 0.85% AMC, 0.90% TER**
• SICAV €895.0m^
• SLIGARS LN Eq
• SLGLDIA LX Eq
* NB - tracking error is measured relative to 6mth Euribor. The actual tracking error can be higher or lower at any time** Estimated TER^ As at 31 March 2011, using an exchange rate of £1:€1.129553
40
The information shown relates to the past. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of investment can go down as well as up.
For full details of the fund's objective, policy, investment and borrowing powers and details of the risks investors need to be aware of please refer to the full prospectus which can be found on www.standardlifeinvestments.com
Any data contained herein which is attributed to a third party ("Third Party Data") is the property of (a) third party supplier(s) (the “Owner”) and is licensed for use by Standard Life**. Third Party Data may not be copied or distributed. Third Party Data is provided “as is” and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. To the extent permitted by applicable law, none of the Owner, Standard Life** or any other third party (including any third party involved in providing and/or compiling Third Party Data) shall have any liability for Third Party Data or for any use made of Third Party Data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither the Owner nor any other third party sponsors, endorses or promotes the fund or product to which Third Party Data relates.
**Standard Life means the relevant member of the Standard Life group, being Standard Life plc together with its subsidiaries, subsidiary undertakings and associated companies (whether direct or indirect) from time to time."
Standard Life Investments Limited is registered in Scotland (SC123321) at 1 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 2LL.The Standard Life Investments group includes Standard Life Investments (Mutual Funds) Limited, SLTM Limited, Standard Life Investments(Corporate Funds) Limited, SL Capital Partners LLP and AIDA Capital Limited.
Standard Life Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.Calls may be monitored and/or recorded to protect both you and us and help with our training.
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