CITIES: Infrastructure for Sustainable, Attractive Cities/file/1.5... · characteristics (Brezonik...
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GREEN/BLUE CITIES: Green/Blue Infrastructure for Sustainable, Attractive Cities
Deliverable Report 1.5
Prediction of future stormwater quality and runoff
Matthias Borris
Urban Water
Dept of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering
Luleå University of Technology
97187 Luleå
SWEDEN
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IntroductionStormwater quality is governed by various factors including the local climate as rainfall
characteristics (Brezonik and Stadelmann 2002, Vaze and Chiew 2003, Brodie and Egodawatta 2011),
the abundance and strength of pollutant sources (Malmqvist 1983, Pitt et al. 1995, Davis et al. 2001,
Becouze‐Lareure et al. 2015), catchment characteristics as the share of directly connected
impervious surfaces (Hatt et al. 2004, Liu et al. 2012) and finally measures aiming on controlling
stormwater quality and to protect receiving water bodies (MOE 2003, CDEP 2004).
There is clear evidence that rainfall characteristics may change in the future due to anthropogenic
climate change (IPCC 2014). Furthermore many urban areas are expected to grow as for example in
2014 about 54% of the world’s population lived in urban areas and this share is expected to increase
to about two‐thirds by the year 2050 (United Nations 2015). Due to both individual and combined
effects of those two factors stormwater quality will change in the future. Regions with increased
precipitation will face higher runoff volumes. The growth and densification of urban areas will lead to
a higher conversion of rainfall into runoff. On top of that, urbanization is likely to lead to a higher
abundance of pollutant sources.
Consequently stormwater control measures (SCMs) designed for today’s conditions may not deliver
the desired effects in the future, due to hydraulic and pollutant overloading. Consequently possible
future changes in stormwater quality need to be assessed to take the needed corrective actions
aiming to either maintain and/or improve the performance of the existing SCMs.
The principle aim of this report is to give an overview about the current knowledge of future trends
in stormwater quality in Sweden with main focus on the cold climate region as (inter alia) Kiruna.
MethodThis report is based on studies conducted by the authors at Luleå University of Technology on future
trends in stormwater quality exemplified for different cities in Sweden. The conducted studies
focused on the snow free period of the year and only considered precipitation as rain. More
specifically the following topics were covered:
Effects of changes in rainfall characteristics, due to climate change, on the stormwater
quality in Kiruna assuming the current pollutant sources and environmental practices.
Climate change scenario effects on stormwater quality for different catchments in Sweden of
various imperviousness, assuming the current pollutant sources and environmental practices.
Effects of future scenarios accounting for a) climate change, b) increased pollutant
generation due to a progressing urbanization and intensification of land use and c) future
efforts in controlling pollutants by (inter alia) SMCs on stormwater quality in Östersund.
As little data were available for Kiruna at the time these studies were conducted, other municipalities
in northern Sweden were object of the herein reported studies. Nevertheless, many of these results
are also applicable for Kiruna.
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Effects of changes in rainfall characteristics on stormwaterqualityduetoclimatechange
IntroductionFor northern Sweden (including Kiruna) an increasing trend in annual precipitation volume and
hourly rainfall maxima is projected. Furthermore significant changes are particular likely during
spring and autumn (Hernebring and Svensson 2011, Moghadas et al. 2011) . More rainfall paired with
higher rainfall intensities will cause higher runoff volumes and peak flows, which will cause a more
effective mobilization of pollutants in urban environments during rainfall events. Hence it is most
likely that stormwater quality will change under climate change conditions. An assessment of
possible future trends is needed in order to develop meaningful management strategies to mitigate
the impacts of climate change.
In Sweden a substantial amount of research has been done on climate change effects on the quantity
of stormwater ((e.g. Semadeni‐Davies et al. 2008b, Semadeni‐Davies et al. 2008a, Berggren et al.
2011). However, so far there are no Swedish studies addressing climate change effects on the quality
of stormwater and only very few in the international context (e.g. He et al. 2010, Mahbub et al. 2011,
Sharma et al. 2011). The main drawback of these studies was that only limited attention was paid to
the underlying processes and their dependencies on rainfall characteristics. Thus, during this project
process based computer models were used for Kiruna to examine the possible impacts of climate
change on stormwater quality. In the first phase of the project, reported in this chapter, the current
pollutant sources and environmental practices were assumed.
MainresultsHigher rainfall depths and intensities, due to climate change, general lead to higher runoff volumes
and consequently higher pollutant loads in stormwater runoff. The change in pollutant loads, due to
climate change, was however not uniform for all rain events. It was observed that rain events were
affected differently depending on their characteristics (i.e. depth and intensity). Figure 1 presents the
change in total suspended solids (TSS) loads due to climate change in dependence of rainfall intensity
and depth of individual rain events (indicated by the blue rhombuses) for Kiruna.
Figure 1 Percentage changes in TSS loads transported with stormwater runoff for individual rain events
under climate change conditions in dependence of rainfall characteristics (i.e. rainfall depth and
intensity)
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In general it can be observed that rainfall events with intermediate intensities and depths were most
sensitive to climatic changes, which resulted in high percentage changes in TSS loads due to climate
change (up to about 80%). The reason for this behavior can be found by examining the contribution
of permeable areas (e.g. grasses surfaces). As the tested catchment in Kiruna consists of about 80%
of such permeable surface, their contribution to surface runoff needs to be considered. At low
rainfall intensities and depth permeable areas usually do not contribute to surface runoff, since
depression storages and infiltration into the ground use up all rainfall. For rainfall events having
intensities exceeding the infiltration rate, the depression storages can get filled and permeable
surfaces start contributing to surface runoff and consequently also to pollutant wash‐off and
transport. At this critical point of water balance the catchment is very sensitive to changes in rainfall,
due to climate change. As the Kiruna catchment has a high share of permeable surfaces, the runoff
volume and TSS load could change dramatically. As seen in Figure 1 a maximum change of 80% in TSS
load was caused by a 20% increase in rainfall intensity and depth. A further increase of rainfall
intensity and depth affected the runoff volume and TSS load only to a minor extend, since the
contributing area did not change.
Also the availability of accumulated pollutants on the catchment surfaces needs to be considered in
this context. Low rainfall intensities and depth usually result in low runoff volumes and flows.
Consequently it is most likely that there are more pollutants accumulated on the catchment surface
than the rainfall/runoff event could potentially transport. This regime is often called as transport
limited condition. With increasing rainfall depth and intensity also runoff volume and flow will
increase. At a certain point the regime will shift to a so called supply limited condition, which means
that there are not enough pollutants on the surface a rainfall/runoff event could potentially
transport. These processes also affected the event mean concentrations (EMC) of TSS in stormwater
runoff. The relationship between the change in EMC of TSS due to climate change and the rainfall
characteristics of the simulated rain events is shown in Figure 2.
Generally, for low intensity rainfall events an increase in event mean concentration was observed
under climate change conditions. Whereas for rainfall events with high intensities the opposite case
(i.e. decreasing EMC) was observed. Moreover a negative linear relationship between rainfall
intensity and depth and the percentage change in TSS EMC can be observed.
Small rain events with short return periods contribute large amounts to annual precipitation volumes
(80 – 90%) and consequently to annual pollutant loads. Such rainfall events were identified to be
most sensitive to climate change. Consequently SMC should target such rainfall events, since high
Figure 2 Linear relationship between rainfall characteristics (i.e. rainfall depth and intensity) and the
percentage change in TSS EMCs.
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pollutant reduction potential can be expected. On the other hand, high intensity rainfall event, while
causing flood risks, do not necessarily contribute much to annual pollutant loads, due to pollutant
supply limitations.
Takehomemessages Higher rainfall depths and intensities due to climate change will cause more pollutants to be
transported.
Rain events were affected differently depending on their characteristics (i.e. depth and
intensity).
Rain events with low to intermediate depth and intensity were most sensitive to climate
change.
High intense rainfall events showed only minor sensitivities to climate change, and this was
due to pollutant supply limitations.
SMCs should target frequent rainfall events with low depth and intensities since such rain
events contribute major amounts to annual runoff and pollutant loads.
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Climate change scenario effects on stormwater quality fordifferentcatchments
IntroductionThe results presented in the previous chapter were based on simulations of discrete rain events for
Kiruna. A limitation of such simulations is that the initial catchment conditions, including soil
moisture and the accumulated pollutants and the catchment surfaces, may be misinterpreted. In
order to overcome this limitation continuous simulations were performed to analyze the climate
change scenario effect on stormwater quality for Swedish catchments. However there were no long
term climate data available for the Kiruna region suitable for that kind of simulations. Consequently it
was chosen to perform this study in catchments with sufficient data available, namely Kalmar and
two catchments in Skellefteå (a central catchment and a residential area). The chosen catchments
were further of various imperviousness and located in different climatic regions in Sweden
(temperate and sub‐arctic climates), which allowed for some generalization of the results.
MainresultsThe conducted continuous simulations showed that regions with projected increases in precipitation
due to climate change will have higher masses of pollutant transported with stormwater runoff in the
future. However such changes were recognized to be depended on the catchments characteristics
(i.e. imperviousness), the climatic region, including climate change scenarios, and finally the
distribution of rainfall events, with respect to their depth and contribution to the annual
precipitation.
Table 1 presents the changes in TSS loads of the tested catchments due to climate, reflected by a
constant uplift of the rainfall intensity by 20%, as it is recommended by the Swedish Water and
Wastewater Association (Hernebring and Svensson 2011). Furthermore the catchments
imperviousness is shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Influence of the catchments imperviousness on its response to climate change
Kalmar Skellefteå Skellefteå‐central
Imperviousness [%] 23 35 63 Change in TSS load [%] 1, 2 27 21 19
1 During the snow free period of the year (i.e. May to October) 2 Caused by a constant uplift of rainfall intensity by 20% as recommend by the Swedish water and wastewater association
It can be seen that the catchments responded differently to climate change, depending on their
imperviousness. Skellefteå‐Central, having the highest imperviousness, showed the lowest changes in
TSS loads due to climate change, while Kalmar, having the lowest imperviousness, showed the
highest changes, respectively. As it was discussed in the previous chapter, pervious areas are likely to
start contributing to rainfall/runoff when rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration rate and
depression storages get filled. Consequently low‐impervious catchments are very sensitive to climatic
changes, since the contributing area can change dramatically, whereas this is less important for high‐
impervious catchments. However it should be mentioned that, while being less sensitive to climate
changes, the Skellefteå‐Central catchment produced the highest annual TSS loads per hectare;
compared to Kalmar the annual produced TSS load per hectare was about 2.5 times higher.
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Furthermore, it was of interest to assess how climate change scenarios downscaled for the
respective region (i.e. Kalmar and Skellefteå) affect stormwater quality. Towards this end climate
change data from global circulation models were statistically downscaled as it was described in
Olsson et al. (2012). As a basis an intermediate emission scenario (i.e. A1B) was chosen, which was
defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and Svart 2000). As a result
of this climate change scenarios, including changes in precipitation, for the near future (2011 – 2040),
the intermediate future (2041 – 2070) and the far future (2071 – 2100) were generated for both
Kalmar and Skellefteå and applied to the test catchments.
An increasing trend can be observed from the near future towards the far future with respect to
changes in precipitation and consequently also TSS loads, respectively. However, this trend is much
more pronounced for the Skellefteå region. For the far future (2071 – 2100) an increase in
precipitation by about 20% can be observed, whereas is this is only about 3% for Kalmar. It should
however be mentioned that only the period from May until October (i.e. snow free) was considered
in this study. It is therefore likely that, while considering the whole year, this difference would be less
significant, since high changes in precipitation are projected for the winter period in southern
Sweden (Moghadas et al. 2011).
While relatively small changes in precipitation were observed for the Kalmar region, it is notable that
those resulted in relatively high changes in TSS loads. For example an increase in precipitation of 3%
resulted in a 10% change in TSS load for the far future scenario. One reason for this behavior was
given by the high share of pervious areas, in case of the Kalmar catchment. Another reason is given
by the fact that rain events with low to intermediate intensities and depths contribute high shares to
Figure 3: Climate change scenario effects on stormwater quality transported from three test catchment for
the near future (2011 ‐ 2040), the intermediate future (2041 – 2070) and the far future (2071 – 2100)
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the annual precipitation in Kalmar. TSS loads for such rain events were identified as very sensitive to
climatic changes in the previous chapter. This explains the fact that relatively small changes in
precipitation can lead to significant changes in TSS‐loads.
Takehomemessages
TSS loads transported from the tested catchments were affected differently under climate
change conditions. This was dependent on their characteristics (i.e. imperviousness), the
climatic region (sub‐arctic or temperate) and finally on the distribution of the rain events
according to their depth and contribution to annual rainfall.
Catchments with low impervious (i.e. Kalmar) were identified to be most sensitive to climatic
changes, since the contributing area can change dramatically. However catchments with high
imperviousness (i.e. Skellefteå‐Central) produced the highest TSS loads per hectare on an
annual basis.
Projections for changes in precipitation due to climate change were identified to vary
significantly between different climatic regions in Sweden. The highest changes are projected
for the sub‐arctic climate region, including Skellefteå. However, since only the snow free
period of the year was considered, different numbers may be observed while considering the
whole year.
The distribution of rainfall events with respect to their depth and contribution to annual
rainfall affected the response to climate change. Rainfall events with low depth and intensity
contributed high shares to annual rainfall in Kalmar. Consequently, while relatively low
changes in precipitation due to climate change were observed, TSS loads changes
significantly.
Effectsofscenarioscombinginfluentialfactorsonstormwaterquality
IntroductionIn the earlier chapters the effects of climate change on pollutant loads transported with stormwater
runoff were discussed. This was done by assuming the current pollutant sources and environmental
practices. However these will most likely change in the future as well, which in return will affect
stormwater quality. Sweden’s population is expected to grow by about 13% by the year 2050
(Statistics Sweden 2011) which will lead to a progressing urbanization. This will cause a higher
conversion of precipitation into runoff, which also impacts stormwater quality due to a higher
abundance of pollutant sources and more effective transport of pollutants (Marsalek et al. 2008).
Furthermore it is most likely that traffic related pollution will change in the future. Due to growing
urban areas, people will have to travel furthers distances. This phenomenon is often referred to as
urban sprawl. The sprawl increases the car dependency of the people and consequently, leads to
higher traffic related pollution, which negatively affects stormwater quality (Van Metre et al. 2000,
Behan et al. 2008).
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Finally, advancements in environmental policies and practices may lead to improvements of
stormwater quality. One example for such environmental policies was given by phasing out lead from
gasoline (e.g. in Sweden 1992), which had great impact on stormwater quality and consequently Lead
levels in stormwater runoff have sharply decreased (Marsalek and Viklander 2011). Another
environmental regulation has been adopted by the state of Washington aiming on reducing copper in
brake pads (no more than 5% and 0,5% by 2021 and 2025, respectively). However, no such regulation
has been adopted in Europe so far. Also structural measures aiming on the improvement of
stormwater quality may be implemented, such as biofilters or grassed swales. Such measures have
been identified to effectively reduce pollutants in stormwater runoff (Barrett et al. 1998, Ellis 1999,
Sun and Davis 2007, Read et al. 2008, Hatt et al. 2009).
Consequently all influential factors should be considered, while assessing future trends in
stormwater quality. Within this project, this has been addressed by combining future projection for
climate, urbanization and advancement in environmental policies and practices in future scenarios
for the tested catchments. Three individual scenarios were developed, namely the sustainable,
security and intermediate scenario.
Within the sustainability scenario it was assumed that the adoption of sustainable development
proceeds at high pace, including rapid technological changes towards environmentally friendly
processes and technologies. The population is well educated and growth slowly. The catchments
develop in a way that stormwater pollutants are controlled by the implementation of well‐designed
SCMs, as for example grassed swales and biofilters. Furthermore, due to low population growth and
low urban sprawl, traffic intensities are stagnating.
Within the security scenario the focus lies on energy and food security and consequently
environmental concerns are mostly disregarded and only low investments are made on this sector.
Within this scenario a strongly growing population is assumed. The catchments are growing
intensively, resulting in urban sprawl and increasing traffic intensities. Finally only some SCMs are
implemented, which become quickly undersized.
The intermediate scenario reflects an intermediate pathway between the sustainability and the
security scenario.
As a case study two catchments in the city of Östersund were chosen, one central catchment
characterized through a high imperviousness and a suburb of Östersund with a high share of pervious
areas. The catchments were assumed to develop differently in the future. Due to space limitations a
land use densification was applied to the central catchment, whereas a land use expansion was
applied to suburban catchment.
MainresultsThe earlier described scenarios were applied to both the central and the suburban catchment in
Östersund. Percentage changes of pollutant loads (i.e. TSS, copper, lead and zinc) compared to the
baseline (current) scenario are presented in Table 2.
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Table 2: Percentage change of pollutant loads compared to the baseline (current) scenarios
Sustainability Intermediate Security
Central TSS ‐20% +9% +24%
Copper ‐26% +5% +22%
Lead ‐16% +10% +16%
Zinc ‐11% +21% +26%
Suburban TSS ‐23% +4% +35%
Copper ‐16% +6% +28%
Lead ‐16% +15% +44%
Zinc ‐12% +12% +30%
A comparison of the two tested catchment shows that both responded similarly to the future
scenarios. Pollutant loads were significantly decreased for the sustainability scenario, somewhat
increased for the intermediate scenario and significantly increase for the security scenario.
Consequently it can be noted that SCMs were identified to be capable to mitigate the negative
impacts of a progressing urbanization and climate change and in case of the sustainability scenario
even improved stormwater quality. On the other hand if SMCs were undersized, as in the security
scenario, stormwater quality was impacted negatively with significantly higher pollutant loads
compared to the baseline scenario.
As both climate change and changes in the catchment (i.e. progressing urbanization and
implementation of SCMs) were combined, it was possible to test what will affect stormwater quality
the most in the future. To test this, catchment characteristics were kept invariable and different
climate inputs were applied. Following this, the climate input was kept invariable and different
catchment characteristics were tested. The results from this procedure can be seen in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Assessment of the relative importance of climate change (RCP 2,6: low changes; RCP
4,5: intermediate changes; RCP 8,5: high changes) and changes in catchment characteristics
(sustainability, intermediate and security)
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The plot indicates that the variability was higher for variable catchment characteristics than for a
variable climate. In case for a variable climate TSS loads increased by about 10% from RCP 2,6 to RCP
8,5. On the other hand for variable catchment characteristics TSS loads increased by about 70% from
the sustainability to the security scenario. This means that the changing catchment characteristics
(implementation of SMCs and changing pollutant sources due to a progressing urbanization)
produced a higher variability than climate change. Consequently, more focus should be paid on the
design of the urban landscape and the implementation of well‐designed SCMs in order to mitigate
possible negative impacts on stormwater quality in the future.
Takehomemessages The two tested catchments (i.e. central and suburban) responded similarly to the applied
future scenarios (i.e. sustainability, intermediate and security).
Stormwater quality will be impacted negatively due to combined effects of climate change
and progressing urbanization. Those negative effects can however be mitigate by well‐
designed SCMs. In some cases stormwater quality was even improved in the future.
Pollutant loads were most sensitive to changes in catchment characteristics. On the other
hand climate change caused only a small variability in pollutant loads. Consequently future
efforts should be dedicated to the design and implementation of SMCs in order to be able to
mitigate possible negative impacts on stormwater quality in the future.
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Acknowledgements
This report was prepared within the JPI Urban Europe project Green/Blue Infrastructure for
Sustainable, Attractive Cities. The financial support of JPI Urban Europe, VINNOVA, The Swedish
Research Council Formas, FFG ‐ The Austrian Research Promotion Agency and NWO ‐ Netherlands
Organisation for Scientific Research is gratefully acknowledged. Special thanks to the municipality of
Kiruna and Tekniska Verken i Kiruna AB.