CHAPTER 4
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Transcript of CHAPTER 4
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1Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)
CHAPTER 4
Model Management
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4.1 Meaning of Model
Description present factGraphic Model DFD E-R DiagramNarrative Model Natural language Physical Model Iconic model
Static and Dynamic Static Model Financial Analysis Dynamic Time dependent ( Number of
counter)
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4.1 Meaning of Model Mathematical Model
Optimization Model Decision Table, Decision Tree Linear programming Goal programming and
Network model Inventory control Simulation Heuristic
Financial Model Statistic Model Predictive Model
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4.1 Meaning of Model
Benefit of Model Reduce the cost Safety for human Rapid to test Make decision has efficiency and
effective
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4.1 Meaning of Model
Tools for developed Model Visual Studio Power Builder Delphi , JAVA Spreadsheet Excel
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4.2 Optimization Model
4.2.1 Decision Tables Condition for decision Result for decision Have 4 parts in table :
Condition Alternative condition Action Rules
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4.2 Optimization Model
4.2.1 Decision Tables : Example 1
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4.2 Optimization Model
4.2.1 Decision Tables : Example 1
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4.2 Optimization Model
4.2.2 Decision Tree
Use graphic for decision Use for minimum alternative Clear structure of alternative
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4.2 Optimization Model
4.2.2 Decision Tree
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4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm
4.3.1 Linear Programming : LP
Use for resource allocation Determine the resource Have constraint Have objective function Max or Min
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4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm
4.3.1 Linear Programming : LPComponent of LP
Decision variable Don’t know value Objective function
Max or Min = A1X1 + A2X2 +… AnXn
Have constraint b1,b2,…,bn
Determine that X1 ,X2 …, Xn > 0
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4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm
4.3.1 Linear Programming : LPExample1 of LP
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4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm
4.3.2 Network Models Component of Network Model :
Transportation Problem Assignment Problem Shortest Path Problem
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4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm
4.3.2 Network Models Characteristics of Network Model :
Use tree for present relation Have Arcs and Node Arcs route Node places
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4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm
4.3.2 Network Models : Example
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4.4 Optimization Model by formulation
4.4.1 Inventory Model Find Economic order Quantity :
EOQ 4.4.2 Transportation Model
Formulate transshipment problem
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4.5 Simulation Model
4.5.1 Characteristic of Simulation Can evaluate error Reasonable Reduce bias Simulate than present real
action
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4.6 Heuristic Model
4.6.1 When the heuristic use Entry data not certain Complicated event Can not use algorithm Long time for process with
simulation Symbolic better than Numeric
Expert system
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4.6 Heuristic Model
4.6.2 Type of heuristic model Construction Heuristics Improvement Heuristics
Mathematical Programming Decomposition Partition combine later
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4.7 Financial Model
4.7.1 Type of Financial Model
Goal Seek Scenario Analysis Data Table
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4.7 Financial Model
4.7.1 Type of Financial Model Goal Seek
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ตัองการจ�าย่เง!นด้าวน" 20% ของราคารถ
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งวด้ละ 10000 บี้าที่
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4.7 Financial Model
4.7.1 Type of Financial Model Scenario
ตั�วอย่�าง ตัองการซื้��อบี้านใหม่�โด้ย่ม่�ราคาที่��ตั�ด้ส!นใจเล�อกอย่#� 2 ราคาค�อ 200000 และ 300000 บี้าที่ โด้ย่ม่�เง��อนไขด้�งตั�อไปน��
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?
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4.7 Financial Model
4.7.1 Type of Financial Model Data Table ก*าหนด้ตัาราง 2 ตัารางด้�งน��
Input Cells
Purchase Price
201,900
Down Payment
20 %
Load Term 360
Interest Rate 8.00 %
Result Cells
Loan Payment 161,520
Monthly Payment
1,185
Total Payment 426,664
Total Interest 224,764
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4.8 Statistical Model
4.8.1 Type of Statistical Model Marcov Analysis Regression Analysis Times Series Forecasting
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4.9 Others Model
4.9.1 Queuing Model Queuing Factor Analysis
Average Service Time Average Service Time per
Customer Customer Satisfaction Cost for service customer
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4.9 Others Model
4.9.1 Queuing Model Result from Queuing Analysis
Average Time for customer waiting
Average number Customer of customer in Queue
Number of Customer in service area
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4.9 Others Model
4.9.1 Queuing Model Kendall Notation
1: Characteristic of System M Exponential Distribution D Deterministic
1/2/3
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4.9 Others Model
4.9.1 Queuing Model Kendall Notation
2: Characteristic of Service M Exponential Distribution G Discrete Value D Deterministic
1/2/3
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4.9 Others Model
4.9.1 Queuing Model Kendall Notation
3: Number of Service person
1/2/3
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4.9 Others Model
4.9.1 Queuing Model : Exampleโรงภาพย่นตั"แม่�โจ ซื้�น�เพล/กม่�บี้ร!การร�บี้จองตั�0วที่างโที่รศั�พที่" โด้ย่ม่�ล#กคาเขาจองตั�0วในอ�ตัราเฉล��ย่ 15 คนตั�อชำ��วโม่ง เป3นการแจกแจงพ�วซื้อง ซื้4�งม่�พน�กงานร�บี้จองตั�0วเพ�ย่ง 1 คนสาม่ารถใหบี้ร!การเฉล��ย่ 24 คนตั�อชำ��วโม่งเวลาใหบี้ร!การเป3นแบี้บี้ exponential โด้ย่เจาของม่�กได้ร�บี้ค*าตั*าหน!จากล#กคาว�ารอสาย่นานม่าก จ4งอย่ากที่ราบี้ว�าเวลาเฉล��ย่ของล#กคาในการถ�อสาย่รอเที่�าไร ซื้4�งถาม่ากกว�า 2 นาที่�แลวอย่ากที่ราบี้ว�าตัองเพ!�ม่คนเที่�าไรถ4งจะที่*าใหเวลาการรอสาย่ของล#กคาน��นตั*�ากว�า 2 นาที่�ได้
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4.9 Others Model
4.9.1 Queuing Model : Example
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4.10 Model Base Management System
4.10.1 Meaning of MBMS Connect between User and Model in
DSS Like DBMS in Database Main function : Select Model Use Artificial Intelligence to select
Model
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Question ???