Chapter 10

The International Monetary System

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Introduction

The institutional arrangements that countries adopt to govern exchange rates are known as the international monetary system When a country allows the foreign exchange market to determine the relative value of a currency, a floating exchange rate system exists When a country fixes the value of its currency relative to a reference currency, a pegged exchange rate system exists

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Introduction

When a country tried to hold the value of its currency within some range of a reference currency, dirty float exists Countries that adopt a fixed exchange rate system fix their currencies against each otherPrior to the introduction of the euro, some European Union countries operated with fixed exchange rates within the context of the European Monetary System (EMS)

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The Gold Standard

The gold standard dates back to ancient times when gold coins were a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of valuePayment for imports was made in gold or silverLater, as trade grew, payment was made in paper currency which was linked to gold at a fixed rate

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Mechanics Of The Gold Standard

Pegging currencies to gold and guaranteeing convertibility is known as the gold standardIn the 1880s, most of the world’s trading nations followed the gold standardUnder the gold standard one U.S. dollar was defined as equivalent to 23.22 grains of "fine (pure) goldThe amount of a currency needed to purchase one ounce of gold was called the gold par value

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Strength Of The Gold Standard

The great strength of the gold standard was that it contained a powerful mechanism for achieving balance-of-trade equilibrium (when the income a country’s residents earn from its exports is equal to the money its residents pay for imports) by all countries

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The Period Between The Wars: 1918-1939

The gold standard worked fairly well from the 1870s until the start of World War I in 1914 During the war, many governments financed their war expenditures by printing money, and in doing so, created inflationPeople lost confidence in the system and started to demand gold for their currency putting pressure on countries' gold reserves, and forcing them to suspend gold convertibilityBy 1939, the gold standard was dead

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The Bretton Woods System

In 1944, representatives from 44 countries met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to design a new international monetary system that would facilitate postwar economic growth

Under the new agreement: a fixed exchange rate system was establishedall currencies were fixed to gold, but only the U.S. dollar was directly convertible to golddevaluations could not to be used for competitive purposesa country could not devalue its currency by more than 10% without IMF approval

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The Bretton Woods System

The Bretton Woods agreement also established two multinational institutions:

the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to maintain order in the international monetary system

the World Bank to promote general economic development

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The Role Of The IMF

The IMF was charged with executing the main goal of the Bretton Woods agreement - avoiding a repetition of the chaos that occurred between the wars through a combination of discipline and flexibility

Discipline mean that:the need to maintain a fixed exchange rate put a brake on competitive devaluations and brought stability to the world trade environment a fixed exchange rate regime imposed monetary discipline on countries, thereby curtailing price inflation

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The Role Of The IMF

Flexibility meant that:while monetary discipline was a central objective of the agreement, a rigid policy of fixed exchange rates would be too inflexible the IMF was ready to lend foreign currencies to members to tide them over during short periods of balance-of-payments deficit, when a rapid tightening of monetary or fiscal policy would hurt domestic employment

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The Role Of The World Bank

The World Bank is also called the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)

There are two ways to borrow from the World Bank: 1. under the IBRD scheme, money is raised through bond sales in the international capital market borrowers pay what the bank calls a market rate of interest - the bank's cost of funds plus a margin for expenses. 2. through the International Development Agency, an arm of the bank created in 1960 IDA loans go only to the poorest countries

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The Collapse Of The Fixed Exchange Rate System

Bretton Woods worked well until the late 1960sIt collapsed when huge increases in welfare programs and the Vietnam War were financed by increasing the money supply and causing significant inflation Other countries increased the value of their currencies relative to the dollar in response to speculation the dollar would be devaluedHowever, because the system relied on an economically well managed U.S., when the U.S. began to print money, run high trade deficits, and experience high inflation, the system was strained to the breaking point

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The Floating Exchange Rate Regime

In 1976, following the collapse of Bretton Woods, IMF members formalized a new exchange rate system at a meeting in Jamaica The rules that were agreed on then, are still in place today

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The Jamaica Agreement

Under the Jamaican agreement:floating rates were declared acceptablegold was abandoned as a reserve assettotal annual IMF quotas - the amount member countries contribute to the IMF - were increased to $41 billion

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Exchange Rates Since 1973

Since 1973, exchange rates have become more volatile and less predictable than they were between 1945 and 1973

Volatility has increased because of:The 1971 oil crisisThe loss of confidence in the dollar that followed the rise of U.S. inflation in 1977 and 1978The 1979 oil crisisThe unexpected rise in the dollar between 1980 and 1985The partial collapse of the European Monetary System in 1992The 1997 Asian currency crisis

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Exchange Rates Since 1973

Figure 10.1: Major Currencies Dollar Index, 1973-2006

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Fixed Versus Floating Exchange Rates

The merit of a fixed exchange rate versus a floating exchange rate system continues to be debated Many countries today are disappointed with the floating exchange rate system

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The Case For Floating Exchange Rates

The case for floating exchange rates has two main elements:

1. monetary policy autonomy

2. automatic trade balance adjustments

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The Case For Floating Exchange Rates

Supporters of floating exchange rates argue that removing the obligation to maintain exchange rate parity restores monetary control to a governmentUnder a fixed system, a country's ability to expand or contract its money supply as it sees fit is limited by the need to maintain exchange rate parity So, under the Bretton Woods system, if a country developed a permanent deficit in its balance of trade that could not be corrected by domestic policy, the IMF would have to agree to a currency devaluation

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The Case For Fixed Exchange Rates

Supporters of fixed exchange rates focus on monetary discipline, uncertainty, and the lack of connection between the trade balance and exchange ratesHaving to maintain a fixed exchange rate parity ensures that governments do not expand their money supplies at inflationary ratesThey also claim that speculation that is associated with floating exchange rates can cause uncertainty Advocates of floating exchange rates also argue that floating rates help adjust trade imbalances

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Who Is Right?

There is no real agreement as to which system is better We know that a fixed exchange rate regime modeled along the lines of the Bretton Woods system will not workA different kind of fixed exchange rate system might be more enduring and might foster the kind of stability that would facilitate more rapid growth in international trade and investment

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Exchange Rate Regimes In Practice

Various exchange rate regimes are followed today

Currently:14% of IMF members follow a free float policy26% of IMF members follow a managed float system28% of IMF members have no legal tender of their ownthe remaining countries use less flexible systems such as pegged arrangements, or adjustable pegs

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Exchange Rate Regimes In Practice

Figure 10.2: Exchange Rate Policies, IMF Members, 2006

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Pegged Exchange Rates

A country following a pegged exchange rate system, pegs the value of its currency to that of another major currencyPegged exchange rates are popular among the world’s smaller nations There is some evidence that adopting a pegged exchange rate regime does moderate inflationary pressures in a country

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Currency Boards

Countries using a currency board commit to converting their domestic currency on demand into another currency at a fixed exchange rateTo make this commitment credible, the currency board holds reserves of foreign currency equal at the fixed exchange rate to at least 100% of the domestic currency issued

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Crisis Management By The IMF

Since many of the original reasons for the IMF no longer exist, the organization has redefined its missionThe IMF now focuses on lending money to countries experiencing financial crisesHowever, critics claim that IMF policies in these countries have actually made the situation worse

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Financial Crises In The Post-Bretton Woods Era

A currency crisis occurs when a speculative attack on the exchange value of a currency results in a sharp depreciation in the value of the currency, or forces authorities to expend large volumes of international currency reserves and sharply increase interest rates in order to defend prevailing exchange ratesA banking crisis refers to a situation in which a loss of confidence in the banking system leads to a run on the banks, as individuals and companies withdraw their depositsA foreign debt crisis is a situation in which a country cannot service its foreign debt obligations, whether private sector or government debt

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Mexican Currency Crisis Of 1995

The Mexican currency crisis of 1995 was a result of:high Mexican debtsa pegged exchange rate that did not allow for a natural adjustment of prices

To keep Mexico from defaulting on its debt, a $50 billion aid package was created

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The Asian Crisis

The 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis was caused by a series of events that took place in the previous decade:huge increases in exports that helped fuel a boom in commercial and residential property, industrial assets, and infrastructureinvestments that were made on the basis of projections about future demand conditions that were unrealistic and created significant excess capacity Investments made on the basis of unrealistic projections about future demand conditions created significant excess capacityinvestments were often supported by dollar-based debts

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The Asian Crisis

when inflation and increasing imports put pressure on the currencies, the resulting devaluations led to default on dollar denominated debtsby the mid 1990s, imports were expanding across the regionby mid-1997, it became clear that several key Thai financial institutions were on the verge of defaultforeign exchange dealers and hedge funds started to speculate against the Baht, selling it shortafter struggling to defend the peg, the Thai government abandoned its defense and announced that the Baht would float freely against the dollar

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The Asian Crisis

With its foreign exchange rates depleted, Thailand lacked the foreign currency needed to finance its international trade and service debt commitments, and was in desperate need of the capital the IMF could provideFollowing the devaluation of the Baht, speculation caused other Asian currencies including the Malaysian Ringgit, the Indonesian Rupaih and the Singapore Dollar to fallThese devaluations were mainly driven by similar factors to those that led to the earlier devaluation of the Baht--excess investment, high borrowings, much of it in dollar denominated debt, and a deteriorating balance of payments position

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Evaluating The IMF’s Policy Prescriptions

By 2006, the IMF was committing loans to some 59 countries in economic and currency crisisAll IMF loan packages require a combination of tight macroeconomic policy and tight monetary policy

However, critics worry: the “one-size-fits-all” approach to macroeconomic policy is inappropriate for many countriesthe IMF is exacerbating moral hazard (when people behave recklessly because they know they will be saved if things go wrong) The IMF has become too powerful for an institution without any real mechanism for accountability As with many debates about international economics, it is not clear who is right

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Corporate-Government Relations

Managers need to recognize that businesses can influence government policy towards the international monetary systemSo, companies should promote an international monetary system that facilitates international growth and development