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Shiller, R., U.S.Stock Price Data, Annual, with consumption, both short and long r

An Update of Data shown in Chapter 26 of Market Volatility, R. Shiller, MIT Press, 1989, and Irrational Exuberan

P D E R RLONG CPI RealR C

S&P Dividends Earnings One-Year Long Consumer Real Real Per

Composite Accruing Accruing Interest overnment Price One-Year Capita

Stock to to Rate Bond Index Interest Consumptio

Price Index Index Yield Rate (SeeIndex 10yrpost53 Consumptio

1871 4.44 0.26 0.4 6.35 5.32 12.46406 1.047504 Tab)

1872 4.86 0.3 0.43 7.81 5.36 12.65439 1.05432 in 2005

1873 5.11 0.33 0.46 8.35 5.58 12.93981 1.133511 dollars

1874 4.66 0.33 0.46 6.86 5.47 12.3689 1.148076

1875 4.54 0.3 0.36 4.96 5.07 11.51265 1.114055

1876 4.46 0.3 0.28 5.33 4.59 10.84658 1.044139

1877 3.55 0.19 0.3 5.03 4.45 10.94174 1.245205

1878 3.25 0.18 0.31 4.9 4.34 9.229089 1.169569

1879 3.58 0.2 0.38 4.25 4.22 8.277679 0.863783

1880 5.11 0.26 0.49 5.1 4.02 9.990331 1.114701

1881 6.19 0.32 0.44 4.79 3.7 9.41942 0.9695531882 5.92 0.32 0.43 5.26 3.62 10.18058 1.072645

1883 5.81 0.33 0.4 5.35 3.63 9.990331 1.140396

1884 5.18 0.31 0.31 5.65 3.62 9.229089 1.177931

1885 4.24 0.24 0.27 4.22 3.52 8.277679 1.079423

1886 5.2 0.22 0.33 4.26 3.37 7.992232 1.0426

1887 5.58 0.25 0.36 6.11 3.52 7.992232 1.012865

1888 5.31 0.23 0.26 5.02 3.67 8.372845 1.100213

1889 5.24 0.22 0.3 4.68 3.45 7.992232 1.09914 2731.57

1890 5.38 0.22 0.29 5.41 3.42 7.611652 1.02839 2674.74

1891 4.84 0.22 0.34 5.97 3.62 7.801942 1.128512 2802.827

1892 5.51 0.24 0.37 3.93 3.6 7.326213 0.964169 2877.01

1893 5.61 0.25 0.26 8.52 3.75 7.897091 1.250995 2834.846

1894 4.32 0.21 0.16 3.32 3.7 6.850484 1.078121 2698.708

1895 4.25 0.19 0.25 3.09 3.46 6.565052 1.016174 2979.457

1896 4.27 0.18 0.21 5.76 3.6 6.660193 1.088706 2916.275

1897 4.22 0.18 0.31 3.44 3.4 6.469903 1.004846 3089.246

1898 4.88 0.2 0.35 3.55 3.35 6.660193 1.020915 3085.275

1899 6.08 0.21 0.48 3.36 3.1 6.755343 0.884164 3389.813

1900 6.1 0.3 0.48 4.64 3.15 7.897091 1.072238 3362.054

1901 7.07 0.32 0.5 4.3 3.1 7.706793 1.017867 3702.786

1902 8.12 0.33 0.63 4.72 3.18 7.897091 0.955138 3659.712

1903 8.46 0.35 0.53 5.5 3.3 8.65826 1.103505 3808.078

1904 6.68 0.31 0.49 4.34 3.4 8.277679 1.019958 3785.69

1905 8.43 0.33 0.67 4.17 3.48 8.467929 1.0417 3923.57

1906 9.87 0.4 0.76 5.47 3.43 8.467929 1.009337 4273.8451907 9.56 0.44 0.66 6.23 3.67 8.848509 1.085642 4276.705

1908 6.85 0.4 0.58 5.32 3.87 8.65826 1.01959 3929.99

1909 9.06 0.44 0.76 3.65 3.76 8.943674 0.936833 4274.442

1910 10.08 0.47 0.73 5.26 3.91 9.895165 1.128568 4263.36

1911 9.27 0.47 0.59 4 3.98 9.229089 1.050826 4399.928

1912 9.12 0.48 0.7 4.35 4.01 9.134005 0.972585 4444.755

1913 9.3 0.48 0.63 5.65 4.45 9.8 1.03537 4501.988

1914 8.37 0.42 0.52 4.64 4.16 10 1.03604 4361.754

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1915 7.48 0.43 0.88 3.65 4.24 10.1 1.006601 4224.744

1916 9.33 0.56 1.53 3.64 4.05 10.4 0.921244 4541.709

1917 9.57 0.69 1.28 4.25 4.23 11.7 0.871232 4387.478

1918 7.21 0.57 0.99 5.98 4.57 14 0.899224 4369.959

1919 7.85 0.53 0.93 5.56 4.5 16.5 0.902456 4505.827

1920 8.83 0.51 0.8 7.3 4.97 19.3 1.089942 4637.213

1921 7.11 0.46 0.29 7.44 5.09 19 1.207905 4842.8141922 7.3 0.51 0.69 4.58 4.3 16.9 1.052025 4952.361

1923 8.9 0.53 0.98 4.96 4.36 16.8 1.019265 5310.285

1924 8.83 0.55 0.93 4.34 4.06 17.3 1.0434 5595.714

1925 10.58 0.6 1.25 3.87 3.86 17.3 1.003883 5351.596

1926 12.65 0.69 1.24 4.28 3.68 17.9 1.066635 5712.111

1927 13.4 0.77 1.11 4.26 3.34 17.5 1.054653 5760.197

1928 17.53 0.85 1.38 4.64 3.33 17.3 1.058639 5818.536

1929 24.86 0.97 1.61 6.01 3.6 17.1 1.0601 6071.471

1930 21.71 0.98 0.97 4.15 3.29 17.1 1.120104 5686.179

1931 15.98 0.82 0.61 2.43 3.34 15.9 1.138907 5469.072

1932 8.3 0.5 0.41 3.36 3.68 14.3 1.145774 4951.901

1933 7.09 0.44 0.44 1.46 3.31 12.9 0.991541 4815.9261934 10.54 0.45 0.49 1.01 3.12 13.2 0.980391 5123.657

1935 9.26 0.47 0.76 0.75 2.79 13.6 0.992899 5400.96

1936 13.76 0.72 1.02 0.75 2.65 13.8 0.986064 5909.391

1937 17.59 0.8 1.13 0.88 2.68 14.1 1.001696 6090.563

1938 11.31 0.51 0.64 0.88 2.56 14.2 1.023211 5945.863

1939 12.5 0.62 0.9 0.56 2.36 14 1.012835 6225.815

1940 12.3 0.67 1.05 0.56 2.21 13.9 0.991336 6495.56

1941 10.55 0.71 1.16 0.53 1.95 14.1 0.902849 6892.752

1942 8.93 0.59 1.03 0.63 2.46 15.7 0.934847 6662.803

1943 10.09 0.61 0.94 0.69 2.47 16.9 0.977966 6759.28

1944 11.85 0.64 0.93 0.72 2.48 17.4 0.984566 6872.801

1945 13.49 0.66 0.96 0.75 2.37 17.8 0.985357 7217.907

1946 18.02 0.71 1.06 0.76 2.19 18.2 0.852945 8015.241947 15.21 0.84 1.61 1.01 2.25 21.5 0.916335 8007.942

1948 14.83 0.93 2.29 1.35 2.44 23.7 1.000831 8045.457

1949 15.36 1.14 2.32 1.58 2.31 24 1.037413 8125.392

1950 16.88 1.47 2.84 1.32 2.32 23.5 0.937409 8502.693

1951 21.21 1.41 2.44 2.12 2.57 25.4 0.978811 8492.658

1952 24.19 1.41 2.4 2.39 2.68 26.5 1.020051 8612.568

1953 26.18 1.45 2.51 2.58 2.83 26.6 1.01436 8874.239

1954 25.46 1.54 2.77 1.8 2.48 26.9 1.025625 8897.174

1955 35.6 1.64 3.62 1.81 2.61 26.7 1.014301 9378.792

1956 44.15 1.74 3.41 3.21 2.9 26.8 1.002184 9480.339

1957 45.43 1.79 3.37 3.86 3.46 27.6 1.002285 9541.591

1958 41.12 1.75 2.89 2.54 3.09 28.6 1.011257 9458.9751959 55.62 1.83 3.39 3.74 4.02 29 1.026778 9819.111

1960 58.03 1.95 3.27 4.28 4.72 29.3 1.025303 9886.802

1961 59.72 2.02 3.19 2.91 3.84 29.8 1.022239 9927.013

1962 69.07 2.13 3.67 3.39 4.08 30 1.020296 10259.6

1963 65.06 2.28 4.02 3.5 3.83 30.4 1.018252 10529.76

1964 76.45 2.5 4.55 4.09 4.17 30.9 1.030891 11007.92

1965 86.12 2.72 5.19 4.46 4.19 31.2 1.024891 11557.94

1966 93.32 2.87 5.55 5.44 4.61 31.8 1.019147 12074.85

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1967 84.45 2.92 5.33 5.55 4.58 32.9 1.018356 12299.9

1968 95.04 3.07 5.76 6.17 5.53 34.1 1.016965 12877.16

1969 102.04 3.16 5.78 8.05 6.04 35.6 1.017614 13224.51

1970 90.31 3.14 5.13 9.11 7.79 37.8 1.036271 13375.36

1971 93.49 3.07 5.7 5.66 6.24 39.8 1.02318 13711.99

1972 103.3 3.15 6.42 4.62 5.95 41.1 1.009362 14396.62

1973 118.42 3.38 8.16 7.93 6.46 42.6 0.986656 14959.181974 96.11 3.6 8.89 11.03 6.99 46.6 0.99309 14709.72

1975 72.56 3.68 7.96 7.24 7.5 52.1 1.004893 14902.65

1976 96.86 4.05 9.91 5.7 7.74 55.6 1.004602 15572.32

1977 103.81 4.67 10.89 5.28 7.21 58.5 0.985421 16070

1978 90.25 5.07 12.33 7.78 7.96 62.5 0.986274 16599.46

1979 99.71 5.65 14.86 10.88 9.1 68.3 0.973407 16816.07

1980 110.87 6.16 14.82 11.37 10.8 77.8 0.995929 16576.57

1981 132.97 6.63 15.36 17.63 12.57 87 1.08524 16646.17

1982 117.28 6.87 12.64 14.6 14.59 94.3 1.104988 16719.59

1983 144.27 7.09 14.03 9.37 10.46 97.8 1.049694 17515.64

1984 166.39 7.53 16.64 11.11 11.67 101.9 1.073186 18284.4

1985 171.61 7.9 14.61 8.35 11.38 105.5 1.042968 19063.951986 208.19 8.28 14.48 7.31 9.19 109.6 1.05766 19657.79

1987 264.51 8.81 17.5 6.25 7.08 111.2 1.021175 20132.17

1988 250.48 9.73 23.76 7.63 8.67 115.7 1.028306 20758.54

1989 285.41 11.05 22.87 9.29 9.09 121.1 1.038855 21142.76

1990 339.97 12.1 21.34 8.43 8.21 127.4 1.026299 21332.5

1991 325.5 12.2 15.91 6.92 8.09 134.6 1.042102 21086.69

1992 416.08 12.38 19.09 3.91 7.03 138.1 1.006309 21489.45

1993 435.23 12.58 21.88 3.44 6.6 142.6 1.008929 21921.2

1994 472.99 13.18 30.6 4.35 5.75 146.2 1.015035 22467.7

1995 465.25 13.79 33.96 6.45 7.78 150.3 1.036233 22802.98

1996 614.42 14.9 38.73 5.68 5.65 154.4 1.025581 23325.45

1997 766.22 15.5 39.72 5.78 6.58 159.1 1.041436 23898.91

1998 963.36 16.2 37.7 5.68 5.54 161.6 1.039433 24861.131999 1248.77 16.69 48.17 5.31 4.72 164.3 1.025026 25922.57

2000 1425.59 16.27 50 6.61 6.66 168.8 1.027742 26939.62

2001 1330.93 15.74 24.69 4.63 5.16 175.1 1.034484 27388.94

2002 1140.21 16.07 27.59 1.85 5.04 177.1 0.992715 27848.5

2003 895.84 17.39 48.74 1.18 4.05 181.7 0.992679 28368.69

2004 1,080.6 19.44 58.55 1.49 4.15 185.2 0.985629 29087.3

2005 1,199.2 22.22 69.93 3.41 4.22 190.7 0.994467 29790.3

2006 1262.07 24.88 81.51 5.32 4.42 198.3 1.031784 30364.43

2007 1416.42 27.73 66.18 5.34 4.76 202.416 1.009684 30867.61

2008 1479.22 28.39 26.16 3.42 3.74 211.18 1.034381 30509.08

2009 877.56 22.41 50.97 1.02 2.52 211.143 0.984305 29933.85

2010 1110.38 22.73 77.35 0.46 3.73 216.687 0.988422011 1241.53 0.37 3.39 220.223

Notes: The Federal Reserve Board discontinued its 6-month commercial paper rate series Augus

After that, the 6-month Certificate of Deposit rate, secondary market, is used,

The series R is the result of converting the January and July rates into an annual yield. RLONG is

Before 1953, it is government bond yields from Sidney Homer A History of Interest Rates.

See Shiller, Irrational Exuberance 2nd Edition, 2005 for description of data

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tes, and present value calculations.

e, Princeton 2005.

RealP P* P*r P*C RealD Return ln(1+ret) RealE

RealP Present Present Present RealD on RealE

Stock Value Value Value S&P S&P Earnings

n Price of Real of Real of Real Dividend Composite

Dividends Dividends Dividendsn Const r Market r Cons disc.

1871 72.10548 94.2852 55.2751 4.158885 0.135809 0.127345 6.398284

1872 77.73916 96.24148 55.53926 4.692868 0.088615 0.084907 6.726443

1873 79.93518 97.76029 55.59267 5.400424 0.02159 0.02136 7.527863

1874 76.26053 98.62658 58.85222 5.802076 0.12279 0.115817 8.087743

1875 79.8225 99.12274 62.97589 5.598523 0.112843 0.106918 6.718228

1876 83.23138 99.86994 66.16068 5.54983 -0.144279 -0.155811 5 .179842

1877 65.67299 100.7198 65.65149 4.167154 0.148835 0.138748 6.579717

1878 71.28027 103.1039 78.96004 4.401581 0.289896 0.254562 7.580501

1879 87.54257 105.3994 90.11089 4.052238 0.228967 0.206174 7.699253

1880 103.5347 108.2236 77.69446 5.587198 0.338735 0.291725 10.52972

1881 133.0183 109.6004 83.19203 6.362419 -0.067292 -0.069663 8.7483271882 117.7048 110.2428 77.48864 6.483581 0.055192 0.053723 8.712312

1883 117.7175 110.7994 78.9342 7.237689 0.026589 0.026241 8.772957

1884 113.6098 110.5885 84.56035 7.580501 -0.020664 -0.02088 7 .580501

1885 103.6817 109.9972 93.68107 6.078382 0.328843 0.284308 6.83818

1886 131.6983 110.9698 97.97903 5.57185 0.115385 0.109199 8.357775

1887 141.3224 112.5493 99.94991 6.043824 -0.048879 -0.050114 8.703107

1888 128.3708 113.732 98.77883 5.825116 0.07919 0.07621 6.584914

1889 132.7113 115.2285 105.8965 95.65229 5.850441 0.122137 0.115235 7.977874

1890 143.0699 116.7995 113.8688 82.08665 5.707748 -0.082419 -0.086014 7.52385

1891 125.5705 118.6294 115.4528 93.26869 6.078382 0.26076 0.231715 9.393863

1892 152.2358 120.1877 127.6987 97.46353 6.151612 -0.015044 -0.015159 9.483735

1893 143.7939 121.7736 121.9353 85.72275 7.386924 -0.060927 -0.062862 7.682401

1894 127.646 122.1479 147.7698 63.01774 6.474794 0.077294 0.074452 4.9331761895 131.0375 123.5217 157.8471 87.14943 5.774463 0.034421 0.033842 7.597978

1896 129.7735 125.7365 160.4668 74.21447 5.631441 0.060752 0.058978 6.570015

1897 132.026 128.2543 174.6126 87.81972 5.470544 0.164794 0.152544 9.421492

1898 148.3125 131.1148 176.5625 81.89852 5.992768 0.268759 0.23804 10.48734

1899 182.1801 133.6117 180.7937 113.352 5.38266 -0.112219 -0.11903 12.30322

1900 156.3535 136.9295 161.9375 104.3017 7.879387 0.23803 0.213521 12.60702

1901 185.6909 137.8063 171.1991 145.5777 8.202149 0.16501 0.152729 12.81586

1902 208.1295 138.3979 172.2701 130.719 7.714862 -0.012654 -0.012735 14.72837

1903 197.781 139.55 163.5947 145.5259 8.558631 -0.130826 -0.140211 12.96021

1904 163.3476 139.8793 177.1334 133.5751 7.41019 0.278988 0.246069 11.71288

1905 201.5094 141.4573 179.734 146.7141 7.888267 0.209964 0.190591 16.01557

1906 235.9309 142.6318 185.718 198.6597 9.150287 -0.034284 -0.034886 17.385551907 218.6919 142.5384 185.1068 190.0418 10.28648 -0.220692 -0.249349 15.42972

1908 160.1418 141.2253 196.6147 125.2255 9.052923 0.33695 0.290391 13.12674

1909 205.0487 141.1404 198.5556 166.1918 9.000662 0.049495 0.048309 15.5466

1910 206.197 141.1056 184.9788 155.4742 10.30822 0.036007 0.035374 16.01065

1911 203.3133 139.6721 203.944 166.0651 10.41553 0.045289 0.044294 13.07482

1912 202.1056 138.0268 210.9173 162.5213 9.914253 -0.000508 -0.000508 14.45829

1913 192.0887 136.8051 203.3367 161.1409 9.715968 -0.067419 -0.0698 12.75221

1914 169.4222 135.7123 208.0252 132.266 8.417299 -0.065498 -0.067741 10.42142

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1915 149.9081 135.9321 214.5913 107.9966 8.369123 0.267174 0.236789 17.12751

1916 181.5905 136.2182 215.6313 135.8709 9.688287 -0.034893 -0.035517 26.46978

1917 165.5659 135.1151 197.7608 108.6456 9.976217 -0.310121 -0.371239 18.50661

1918 104.2442 133.6297 170.9322 96.94452 6.992553 -0.00912 -0.009162 12.14496

1919 96.30095 135.2296 153.8163 102.5825 5.558574 0.019372 0.019187 9.753724

1920 92.60794 138.4694 139.5818 109.5224 5.433272 -0.123407 -0.131713 8.522779

1921 75.7462 142.0628 151.4493 124.8432 5.509548 0.227041 0.204605 3.4734111922 87.43413 145.8185 181.9767 131.0187 6.144771 0.296714 0.259833 8.313514

1923 107.2323 149.1507 191.8414 167.0583 6.201184 0.02129 0.021066 11.46634

1924 103.3141 152.6488 196.4612 199.7758 6.435191 0.260476 0.231489 10.88132

1925 123.7897 156.1344 205.6889 160.6947 6.784894 0.210384 0.190938 14.1352

1926 143.0482 159.483 207.4386 201.7866 7.980974 0.139293 0.130408 14.34262

1927 154.9928 161.7816 220.5324 200.6867 9.009267 0.38146 0.323141 12.98738

1928 205.1071 163.1381 231.3382 199.9319 10.06161 0.483782 0.394594 16.33533

1929 294.2726 163.4629 242.8873 226.9682 11.48208 -0.087691 -0.091777 19.05788

1930 256.9855 162.2929 254.3433 163.1288 12.47595 -0.159834 -0.174156 12.34865

1931 203.4344 159.9822 280.3554 127.1298 11.60707 -0.365431 -0.454809 8.634529

1932 117.4862 158.4425 316.5672 73.83671 7.845581 0.013701 0.013608 6.433377

1933 111.2503 160.8151 365.773 58.20916 6.7472 0.513463 0.414401 6.74721934 161.6261 164.5216 369.9997 67.82762 6.697588 -0.105843 -0.111874 7.292929

1935 137.8215 168.5325 370.3561 77.04962 6.893878 0.514446 0.41505 11.14755

1936 201.8293 172.606 375.0652 103.5286 10.33614 0.302357 0.264175 14.64286

1937 252.5175 173.2801 373.8797 106.4844 11.40372 -0.316389 -0.380366 16.10775

1938 161.2201 172.8598 377.2363 85.31617 7.373726 0.166742 0.154216 9.253303

1939 180.7286 176.7145 392.8815 95.1812 9.028627 0.041036 0.040216 13.10607

1940 179.1163 179.0635 403.7593 103.7516 9.618349 -0.100744 -0.106187 15.07353

1941 151.4531 180.9422 406.1075 121.9341 9.153845 -0.179376 -0.197691 14.95558

1942 115.1322 183.4444 373.8804 97.30515 7.066594 0.111048 0.105304 12.3366

1943 120.8507 188.3452 357.2296 95.99802 7.096193 0.199401 0.181822 10.93512

1944 137.8523 193.547 356.0825 95.51523 7.277879 0.165609 0.153244 10.57567

1945 153.404 198.9077 357.0334 108.9158 7.34036 0.354296 0.303282 10.67689

1946 200.4141 204.5653 358.2193 158.2794 6.684435 -0.252138 -0.290537 9.979581947 143.1976 211.3073 313.5586 151.0193 7.174238 -0.065391 -0.067627 13.75062

1948 126.6595 217.9837 292.7075 146.6949 7.84362 0.084718 0.08132 19.31386

1949 129.5462 224.3984 296.2175 144.7686 9.819329 0.198138 0.180769 19.9832

1950 145.395 229.1384 308.2898 163.7701 11.71463 0.243096 0.217605 22.63234

1951 169.0253 232.1763 289.5862 151.2837 10.77006 0.156877 0.145724 18.63755

1952 184.7714 236.4288 283.789 149.2403 10.72957 0.136266 0.127748 18.2631

1953 199.22 241.0132 289.1907 157.4914 10.9109 0.01642 0.016287 18.88714

1954 191.5803 245.715 293.1357 148.2149 11.67493 0.469686 0.385049 20.99971

1955 269.888 249.9199 299.6573 171.3335 12.38665 0.281437 0.247982 27.34127

1956 333.4577 253.6502 302.5897 166.4886 12.76101 0.037435 0.036751 25.00864

1957 333.1797 257.2338 301.7723 158.0722 12.66869 -0.088495 -0.092659 23.85112

1958 291.0261 261.1591 301.0465 139.9995 12.21476 0.375941 0.319138 20.17181959 388.2199 265.8354 303.3547 150.3546 12.64236 0.065212 0.063174 23.41946

1960 400.8942 270.3725 309.8421 141.9014 13.24534 0.044895 0.043917 22.21142

1961 405.6471 274.5735 315.6764 130.9787 13.62934 0.182453 0.167591 21.52357

1962 466.0291 278.6495 320.5517 135.8042 14.18244 -0.040019 -0.040841 24.43641

1963 433.1969 282.4114 324.5434 136.5007 14.93555 0.190533 0.174401 26.33373

1964 500.7995 285.6244 327.3414 148.1001 16.21923 0.148043 0.138059 29.519

1965 558.7201 287.6846 332.8747 163.774 17.31357 0.094147 0.089975 33.03582

1966 594.0082 288.716 335.7304 177.7833 17.65757 -0.09558 -0.100461 34.14616

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1967 519.5754 289.4501 336.5756 173.7547 17.33298 0.119156 0.112575 31.63863

1968 564.153 290.5805 337.5612 191.4093 17.45554 0.059356 0.057661 32.75045

1969 580.1834 291.6568 338.0286 195.4573 16.92155 -0.1373 -0.147688 30.95144

1970 483.6029 293.3763 339.2941 187.6076 15.9695 0.016213 0.016083 26.0903

1971 475.4742 296.2292 347.6696 191.2498 15.11964 0.101781 0.096928 28.07229

1972 508.7487 300.1831 353.2361 217.2831 14.96738 0.135425 0.127007 30.50495

1973 562.6785 304.5679 354.6365 238.3206 14.68168 -0.23197 -0.263927 35.444521974 417.4721 309.5553 348.6853 208.1355 13.98652 -0.291228 -0.344221 34.53893

1975 281.906 315.6235 345.4476 205.285 13.39732 0.298388 0.261124 28.97898

1976 352.6261 322.7325 346.6332 231.3496 14.01342 0.058364 0.056724 34.28962

1977 359.1932 329.666 347.1309 248.3594 15.12452 -0.144156 -0.155668 35.26896

1978 292.2887 335.8835 340.1225 267.6188 15.02561 0.062406 0.060536 36.54157

1979 295.5037 342.6284 333.3215 266.8379 14.69988 0.025895 0.025565 38.66198

1980 288.4558 350.1789 322.5826 237.2585 14.33198 0.122192 0.115284 34.48052

1981 309.3708 358.6344 319.0253 226.9363 14.23137 -0.140274 -0.151141 32.97041

1982 251.7428 367.7712 342.6691 216.7348 14.21879 0.242591 0.217199 26.16092

1983 298.5946 377.5413 375.7513 246.8353 14.0837 0.154086 0.143308 27.86945

1984 330.5201 388.1186 393.7546 279.0236 14.44732 0.039889 0.039114 31.92609

1985 329.257 399.0253 421.8696 315.2906 14.5902 0.212088 0.192344 26.982641986 384.4981 410.5194 440.6733 341.8594 15.07198 0.29144 0.255758 26.35777

1987 481.4843 422.2789 466.7504 361.0006 15.41301 -0.057861 -0.059602 30.61608

1988 438.2123 434.4722 478.5081 392.6552 16.26348 0.125756 0.118455 39.71432

1989 477.0566 446.5846 493.3682 406.2797 17.55649 0.169062 0.156201 36.33637

1990 540.152 458.1382 512.8682 403.5044 18.19639 -0.06009 -0.061971 32.09181

1991 489.4978 469.7923 526.9857 367.0293 17.88179 0.282414 0.248744 23.31961

1992 609.857 482.5731 550.4061 378.0026 17.573 0.041831 0.040979 27.09763

1993 617.7946 496.5509 556.9887 391.7352 17.41719 0.088191 0.084517 30.29317

1994 654.8614 511.6434 565.4462 414.8673 17.75012 -0.016091 -0.016222 41.21044

1995 626.5738 527.4045 577.3043 422.441 18.07848 0.314408 0.273386 44.52103

1996 805.4951 543.8843 601.312 444.4302 18.95662 0.233757 0.210064 49.27449

1997 974.8283 560.5446 619.979 470.818 19.4149 0.257755 0.229328 49.75225

1998 1206.68 577.8459 648.8858 531.9304 19.95824 0.291503 0.255807 46.446031999 1538.472 595.741 678.2721 608.8002 20.01376 0.124171 0.117046 57.76291

2000 1709.492 614.7909 700.4202 690.101 18.80816 -0.088989 -0.0932 57.80011

2001 1538.558 636.4208 727.1214 718.4972 17.98999 -0.14128 -0.152313 28.21937

2002 1303.2 660.392 761.259 749.9575 17.90217 -0.220474 -0.249069 30.73559

2003 997.9766 686.0835 766.9512 789.6792 19.00656 0.202535 0.184432 53.27082

2004 1181.095 712.3388 771.6571 853.7782 20.63433 0.095187 0.090925 62.14713

2005 1272.886 738.6373 769.5386 918.7233 22.68121 0.029902 0.029464 71.3815

2006 1288.266 764.5345 771.8714 968.9409 24.88 0.118791 0.112248 81.51

2007 1416.42 789.8409 799.885 1009.901 26.5792 0.019762 0.019569 63.43352

2008 1417.832 815.0498 810.9725 937.213 27.21658 -0.387442 -0.490111 25.07875

2009 841.2885 841.2885 841.2885 841.2885 20.93408 0.257814 0.229375 47.61312

2010 1037.25 20.89208 0.120302 0.113598 71.095562011 1141.141

1997.

the 10-year Treasury after 1953

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P/E E10 P/E10

Price Ten-Year Price

Earnings Average Earnings

Ratio of Ratio

One-Year Real Ten-YearEarnings Earnings Earnings

12.15

11.88372

10.13043

9.869565

12.38889

12.67857

10.83333

11.54839

13.44737 7.302759

12.63265 7.537764 18.214813.45455 7.73635 15.61534

13.51163 7.86086 15.21616

12.95 7.810136 14.45259

13.67742 7.822131 13.27527

19.25926 8.139924 16.83662

16.90909 8.352263 17.36163

14.75 8.252704 15.36959

20.15385 8.280567 16.08095

17.93333 7.97998 17.27779

16.68966 8.044533 15.73569

16.20588 8.121676 18.92414

15.16216 8.01262 17.70496

16.61538 7.747887 15.9306226.5625 7.823867 16.91267

17.08 7.645091 16.58687

20.09524 7.71693 17.26938

15.74194 8.107173 19.21911

17.37143 8.539708 22.47148

12.70833 9.048025 18.309

14.72917 9.390224 20.52281

16.24 9.914688 22.16449

13.42857 10.44247 19.94828

12.60377 11.12044 15.64262

17.20408 11.9622 18.12063

14.73134 13.04375 19.7230412.57895 13.64458 16.76602

10.37879 13.90851 11.73667

15.62069 14.23285 14.74268

13.26316 14.57321 14.4874

12.69863 14.59911 13.95116

15.45763 14.5721 13.8437

13.28571 14.5513 13.18195

13.28571 14.42216 11.6431

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14.38462 14.53335 10.39429

10.60227 15.44177 12.49475

6.254902 15.74946 10.72195

5.632813 15.65128 6.618908

7.929293 15.072 6.152911

9.494624 14.32321 6.144372

8.8875 13.36307 5.28835425.17241 12.74859 6.542968

12.89855 12.62 8.411305

9.010204 12.66599 8.186531

11.37634 12.36676 9.773387

10.12 11.15405 11.56715

10.80645 10.60213 13.89566

15.79279 11.02116 19.34585

18.01449 11.95158 26.70069

13.48447 12.33416 21.50222

16.47423 12.85028 16.49357

13.60656 12.66226 9.142699

17.29268 12.19035 8.78597723.95455 11.83151 13.25853

18.89796 11.53274 11.64868

18.10526 11.56277 17.50054

17.2451 11.87481 21.83885

10.00885 11.1666 13.57665

19.53125 10.57142 16.18474

13.66667 10.84391 16.94345

10.04762 11.47601 13.96665

7.698276 12.06634 10.03242

9.796117 12.48513 10.01553

12.60638 12.8134 11.04132

14.50538 12.76634 11.97215

18.77083 12.30001 15.6986414.34906 12.0643 11.64207

9.21118 13.07035 10.4987

6.707424 13.75806 9.911458

7.275862 14.51394 10.56798

7.46831 14.88214 11.64572

9.913934 15.47479 12.41565

10.90833 16.26999 12.87384

10.14343 17.3124 11.77507

12.85199 18.97884 15.58929

12.19613 20.48174 17.56998

13.32258 21.49179 16.26715

12.20178 21.57759 13.5412719.24567 21.92121 17.99181

17.11799 21.87912 18.28796

18.263 22.16772 18.54037

21.65204 22.78505 21.02287

17.72752 23.52971 19.01233

19.01741 24.38164 21.2837

18.92747 24.9511 22.9156

17.98073 25.86485 23.8069

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15.21622 26.6436 20.08809

17.83114 27.90147 21.17405

17.71528 28.65466 20.79401

15.62457 29.04255 16.87693

18.22417 29.69742 16.37164

18.12281 30.30428 17.13107

18.44548 31.21536 18.5676211.77819 31.71735 13.37393

8.16198 31.31167 8.888071

12.16834 31.32601 11.26181

10.47528 31.68904 11.46629

8.28742 32.06816 9.223651

8.08678 32.83921 9.214862

7.460969 33.67823 8.783884

8.972335 34.16804 9.186075

7.635417 33.73364 7.367786

11.41377 32.97613 8.851539

11.85959 32.71485 10.02301

10.3131 32.51522 10.0644514.24983 31.72203 11.82517

18.26727 31.25674 15.17823

14.31314 31.57402 14.01977

12.01221 31.34146 15.10915

14.86533 31.10259 17.23443

15.25305 30.13751 15.73817

26.15211 30.23118 20.23581

22.79885 30.47355 20.43568

21.61746 31.40198 21.4895

15.20425 33.15582 19.95332

18.09246 35.4475 24.29423

19.78363 37.36111 27.50063

24.25378 38.03428 32.2977533.12387 40.17694 40.44962

29.59498 42.74777 42.54908

26.6186 43.23774 35.99154

46.18104 43.60154 30.14034

32.46974 45.89931 22.88856

22.17152 47.99297 25.73231

20.48181 50.67902 26.52233

18.04762 53.90257 25.42011

17.37725 55.2707 26.27741

22.35147 53.13397 25.65251

33.54587 52.11899 15.83335

21.78497 53.44854 19.9015816.05081 56.25178 21.35028

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This page shows how consumption data in column I of Data were constructed

NIPA

Table

2.3.6

NIPA

Table

2.4.3

NBER

Kendrick

Real

Consumption

Populatio

n

Per

Capita

Real

Consumpt

ion

PersonalConsumpt

ion

Expenditu

res

Real

Personal

Consumpt

ion Index

PersonalConsumpt

ion

Expenditu

res

Inferred from

Columns

B,C,D

From

NIPA

Table

7.1

Line 18

Billion

s of

Chained

2005

Dollars 2000=100

Millions of

1929

Dollars

Billions

of 2005

Dollars MillionsIn 2005

Dollars

1889 18004 168.7427455 61.775 2731.57

1890 17995 168.6583929 63.056 2674.74

1891 19247 180.3927807 64.361 2802.8271892 20157 188.9217686 65.666 2877.01

1893 20256 189.8496475 66.97 2834.846

1894 19659 184.2542565 68.275 2698.708

1895 22119 207.3106414 69.58 2979.457

1896 22056 206.720173 70.885 2916.275

1897 23794 223.0096027 72.189 3089.246

1898 24193 226.7492359 73.494 3085.275

1899 27053 253.5546265 74.799 3389.813

1900 27296 255.8321474 76.094 3362.054

1901 30651 287.2769325 77.584 3702.786

1902 30911 289.7137862 79.163 3659.712

1903 32761 307.0529375 80.632 3808.078

1904 33188 311.055001 82.166 3785.691905 35090 328.881523 83.822 3923.57

1906 38965 365.2000155 85.45 4273.845

1907 39702 372.1075585 87.008 4276.705

1908 37197 348.6294104 88.71 3929.99

1909 41269 386.7942882 90.49 4274.442

1910 42034 393.9642616 92.407 4263.36

1911 44064 412.9904654 93.863 4399.928

1912 45211 423.7407392 95.335 4444.755

1913 46701 437.7057853 97.225 4501.988

1914 46124 432.2978446 99.111 4361.754

1915 45322 424.7810883 100.546 4224.744

1916 49408 463.0771812 101.961 4541.7091917 48342 453.0860811 103.268 4387.478

1918 48121 451.0147555 103.208 4369.959

1919 50245 470.9219756 104.514 4505.827

1920 52713 494.0533407 106.541 4637.213

1921 56082 525.629341 108.538 4842.814

1922 58149 545.0023278 110.049 4952.361

1923 63427 594.4704577 111.947 5310.285

1924 68127 638.5212744 114.109 5595.714

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1925 66137 619.8699712 115.829 5351.596

1926 71548 670.5846455 117.397 5712.111

1927 73157 685.6650208 119.035 5760.197

1928 74813 701.1859043 120.509 5818.536

1929 9.814 78952 739.9787406 121.878 6071.471

1930 9.29 700.4689729 123.188 5686.179

1931 9.005 678.9798817 124.149 5469.0721932 8.206 618.735026 124.949 4951.901

1933 8.028 605.313769 125.69 4815.926

1934 8.595 648.0657505 126.485 5123.657

1935 9.123 687.8771194 127.362 5400.96

1936 10.046 757.4716148 128.181 5909.391

1937 10.417 785.4451335 128.961 6090.563

1938 10.249 772.7778798 129.969 5945.863

1939 10.819 815.7560622 131.028 6225.815

1940 11.382 858.2064423 132.122 6495.56

1941 12.195 919.5069025 133.402 6892.752

1942 11.917 898.5456135 134.86 6662.803

1943 12.258 924.2571227 136.739 6759.281944 12.615 951.1750369 138.397 6872.801

1945 13.395 1009.987287 139.928 7217.907

1946 15.03 1133.26681 141.389 8015.24

1947 15.307 1154.152698 144.126 8007.942

1948 15.646 1179.713407 146.631 8045.457

1949 16.077 1212.210945 149.188 8125.392

1950 17.105 1289.722474 151.684 8502.693

1951 17.378 1310.306761 154.287 8492.658

1952 17.928 1351.776937 156.954 8612.568

1953 18.78 1416.01801 159.565 8874.239

1954 19.162 1444.820932 162.391 8897.174

1955 20.558 1550.079779 165.275 9378.792

1956 21.151 1594.792168 168.221 9480.3391957 21.674 1634.226536 171.274 9541.591

1958 21.846 1647.195391 174.141 9458.975

1959 23.067 1739.259182 177.13 9819.111

1960 23.702 1787.138385 180.76 9886.802

1961 24.191 1824.009141 183.742 9927.013

1962 25.389 1914.338725 186.59 10259.6

1963 26.436 1993.28286 189.3 10529.76

1964 28.02 2112.716967 191.927 11007.92

1965 29.791 2246.250933 194.347 11557.94

1966 31.484 2373.903675 196.599 12074.85

1967 32.422 2444.629175 198.752 12299.9

1968 34.284 2585.024571 200.745 12877.161969 35.558 2681.084579 202.736 13224.51

1970 36.381 2743.139042 205.089 13375.36

1971 37.77 2847.870087 207.692 13711.99

1972 40.082 3022.195627 209.924 14396.62

1973 42.048 3170.432656 211.939 14959.18

1974 41.729 3146.379954 213.898 14709.72

1975 42.688 3218.68886 215.981 14902.65

1976 45.041 3396.105813 218.086 15572.32

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1977 46.95 3540.045024 220.289 16070

1978 49.012 3695.520484 222.629 16599.46

1979 50.204 3785.397666 225.106 16816.07

1980 50.065 3774.917021 227.726 16576.57

1981 50.779 3828.75285 230.008 16646.17

1982 51.493 3882.588678 232.218 16719.59

1983 54.436 4104.49182 234.333 17515.641984 57.325 4322.323344 236.394 18284.4

1985 60.303 4546.865497 238.506 19063.95

1986 62.749 4731.29468 240.683 19657.79 6,079.00

1987 64.84 4888.956749 242.843 20132.17

1988 67.468 5087.10879 245.061 20758.54

1989 69.369 5230.444799 247.387 21142.76

1990 70.782 5336.985451 250.181 21332.5

1991 70.903 5346.10889 253.53 21086.69

1992 73.224 5521.113032 256.922 21489.45

1993 75.672 5705.693016 260.282 21921.2

1994 78.504 5919.226722 263.455 22467.7

1995 6,079.00

80.623 6079 266.588 22802.981996 6,291.20 83.382 6291.2 269.714 23325.45

1997 6,523.40 86.533 6523.4 272.958 23898.91

1998 6,865.50 90.896 6865.5 276.154 24861.13

1999 7,240.90 95.537 7240.9 279.328 25922.57

2000 7,608.10 100 7608.1 282.413 26939.62

2001 7,813.90 102.537 7813.9 285.294 27388.94

2002 8,021.90 105.698 8021.9 288.055 27848.5

2003 8,247.60 109.143 8247.6 290.729 28368.69

2004 8,532.70 8532.7 293.348 29087.3

2005 8,819.00 8819 296.036 29790.3

2006 9,073.50 9073.5 298.82 30364.43

2007 9,313.90 9313.9 301.737 30867.61

2008 9,290.90 9290.9 304.529 30509.082009 9,186.70 9186.7 306.9 29933.85

2009 value is 2nd quarter 2009 2009 Pop is 2nd Quarter

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6,291.20 6,523.40 6,865.50 7,240.90 7,608.10 7,813.90 8,021.90 8,247.60 8,532.70 8,819.00

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9,073.50 9,313.90 9,290.90

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10

100

1000

10000

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Price

Year

Comparing Actual Real Stock Price with Three Alternative PDVs of Future Real Dividends

Actual Real Stock Price (P)

PDV of Dividends(P* A=0)

PDV Dividends UsingActual Future InterestRates

Consumption-DiscountedDividends, (P*, A=4)

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1500

15000

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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Average Real Interest Rate: 1.028826

Geometric Average Stock Return: 0.065648

exp(geo. Avg. return) 0.067851

Geometric Average Dividend Growth 0.012025