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Challenges & Opportunities Facing The Global Energy System

CERI, 25 January 2017

Tim Gould, IEA

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Key points of orientation:

Middle East share in global oil production in 2016 at highest level for 40 years

Transformation in gas markets deepening with a 30% rise in LNG

Additions of renewable capacity in the power sector higher in 2015 than coal, gas, oil and nuclear combined

Energy sector in the spotlight as the Paris Agreement enters into force

Billions remain without basic energy services

There is no single story about the future of global energy; policies will determine where we go from here

The global energy context today

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Change in total primary energy demand

Low-carbon fuels & technologies, mostly renewables, supply nearly half of the increase in energy demand to 2040

Low- carbon

Oil Gas Coal

A new ‘fuel’ in pole position

500

1 000

1 500

2 000 1990-2015 2015-2040

Mto

e

Low- carbon

Oil Gas Coal

Nuclear

Nuclear

Ren

ewab

les

Ren

ewab

les

Rest of world

European Union Latin

America

India

US

Africa

China

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1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

TWh

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

TWh

Greater policy support boosts prospects for solar PV and wind

Solar PV and wind generation, 2040

Stronger policies on solar PV and wind help renewables make up 37% of electricity generation in 2040 in our main scenario – & nearly 60% in the 2 °C scenario

Additional in the 2 °C scenario

Rest of world

United States

China

WEO-2015

Increase in WEO-2016:

Solar PV Wind power

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300

600

900

1 200 Mtoe

The next frontiers for renewables are heat and transport

Renewable energy use by sector

Today renewables in electricity and heat use are nearly at par; by 2040, the largest untapped potential lies in heat and transport

Electricity Heat Transport

Additional to 2040

2015

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Net oil imports

The energy transition provides instruments to address traditional energy security concerns, while shifting attention to electricity supply

A suite of tools to address energy security

5

10

15

20

2014 2040

mb

/d

Switch to electric and natural gas vehicles

Switch to renewables

Efficiency improvements

Increase in oil production 2014-2040

Net oil imports

United States

2014 2040

European Union

2014 2040

China

2014 2040

India

Reduction in net oil imports due to:

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Approvals of new conventional crude oil projects in 2015-2016 have fallen to the lowest level since the 1950s

If approvals remains low in 2017, an unprecedented effort will be needed to avoid a supply-demand gap in a few years’ time

US tight oil provides a potential lifeline, but cannot be relied upon to cover a major shortfall in the ‘baseload’ of oil supply

Without a pick-up in investment, or a rapid slowdown in demand growth, the stage is set for the next boom-and-bust cycle for oil

Entering a period of greater oil market volatility

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-3

0

3

6 mb/d

The global car fleet doubles, but efficiency gains, biofuels & electric cars reduce oil

Change in oil demand by sector, 2015-2040

No peak yet in sight, but a slowdown in growth for oil demand

Power generation

Buildings Passenger cars

Maritime Freight Aviation Petrochemicals

demand for passenger cars;

growth elsewhere pushes total demand higher

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A wave of LNG spurs a second natural gas revolution

Share of LNG in global long-distance gas trade

Contractual terms and pricing arrangements are all being tested as new LNG from Australia, the US & others collides into an already well-supplied market

2014 685 bcm

2040 1 150 bcm

2000 525 bcm

LNG 53%

Pipeline Pipeline LNG 42%

Pipeline

LNG 26%

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Coal demand in key regions

The peak in Chinese demand is an inflexion point for coal; held back by concerns over air pollution & carbon emissions, global coal use is overtaken by gas in the 2030s

Coal: a rock in a hard place

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

Southeast Asia

European Union

India

United States

China

Mtce

2014

Decreasing demand

Change 2014-2040:

Increasing demand

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The water-energy dependence deepens

Global energy use in the water sector and water use in the energy sector

Managing energy-water linkages is pivotal to the prospects for realisation of a range of development & climate goals

2014

2040

Supply

Wastewater treatment

Desalination/re-use

Water sector energy consumption

2014

2040

bcm

Primary energy production

Power generation

50 100 150 200 250 300 Mtoe

20 40 60 80

Energy sector water consumption

+130%

+59%

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Air pollution is an energy problem

Pollutant emissions, 2015

Energy is the single most important cause of emissions of all main pollutants

81 Mt 108 Mt 41 Mt Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) Sulfur dioxide (SO2) Nitrogen oxides (NOX)

>99%

Non-energy Energy-related

>99% >99% >99% 85%

Coal Oil Gas Bioenergy Other

Biomass 43%

Coal 43%

Oil 61%

Source: WEO Special Report: Energy and Air Pollution

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Current pledges fall short of limiting the temperature increase to below 2 °C; raising ambition to 1.5 °C is uncharted territory

Energy-sector CO2 emissions

Still a long way from a pathway to energy sector decarbonisation

10

20

30

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Gt

2060 2080 2100 2050 2070 2090

Early peak in emissions

Net-zero by the end of the century

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Energy security remains a major concern; potential vulnerabilities are growing, so too is the range of tools available to address them

New oil market dynamics & subdued upstream investment are ushering in a period of greater market volatility

A wave of LNG is the catalyst for a second natural gas revolution, with far-reaching implications for gas pricing & contracts

The next chapter in the rise of renewables requires policies to push their role in heat & transport & changes in power market design

The Paris Agreement is a framework; its impact on energy depends on how its goals are translated into real government policy actions

Conclusions

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