Chad Cameroon - Data Sheets

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Transcript of Chad Cameroon - Data Sheets

  • SL. No.123456789

    101112131415

  • All figures are in $ MillionsAssumptions:TOTCO and COTCO as independent entity and is taking debt and paying them off as well, In case they fail to pay pvt. Sponsors will pay.Whenever net loss occurs( in the event of net negative cash flows), Pvt. Sponsors loose money. And ROE of 3 parties viz. TOTCO, COTCO and pvt. Sponsors. Is 0.Price and Volume will vary as per the given projections in the case.

    Other uses of cash will remain the same.DSRF should be of level 0.86*Debt service due in next period. (Sponsors will put in money if money cannot be generated from the operations).

    Upstream and Pipeline tax is taken as per the projections given in the data.(%age of revenue)ROE of three parties from TOTCO and COTCO is taken from their net earnings after paying of debt, in the ratios provided in the caseEarning of TOTCO and COTCO is purely related to the volume of OIL transported. (See TOTCO and COTCO Calculation sheet)Transit Tax= 0.008+0.41*Volume of oil transported (Sheet cam. Transit tax n ppt tax)In 1st year Equity invested by PVt. Spn. In pipelines is 0. From next year they invest in same proportion as other govt.+ (whatever they were supposed to pay in the first year)/no. of years of equity infusionNPV and IRR is calculated at 10% discounted rate.Net change in DSRF if negative can be used by the project.25 million payment from petronas and chevron is not included in calculation.

    Operating Cost= 2.159978+3.844628*number of years in operation +1.951171*volume extracted(CHECK column AO of sheet 'Ratios n reg.)

    Royalty paid to CHAD govt.=7.32+0.91*Volume extracted (Column O(O21) in sheet royalty and drop')

  • US $ million PriceFinancing

    YearChad Equity

    Total Debt

    0.00 2000.00 24.00 9.00 13.00 315.00 361.001.00 2001.00 298.00 6.00 10.00 312.00 626.002.00 2002.00 611.00 9.00 15.00 467.00 1102.003.00 2003.00 559.00 8.00 14.00 283.00 864.004.00 2004.00 409.00 11.00 18.00 23.00 461.005.00 2005.00 305.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 309.006.00 2006.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.007.00 2007.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.008.00 2008.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.009.00 2009.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    10.00 2010.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0011.00 2011.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0012.00 2012.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0013.00 2013.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014.00 2014.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0015.00 2015.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0016.00 2016.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0017.00 2017.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0018.00 2018.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0019.00 2019.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0020.00 2020.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0021.00 2021.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0022.00 2022.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0023.00 2023.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0024.00 2024.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0025.00 2025.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0026.00 2026.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0027.00 2027.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    Total 2206.00 47.00 70.00 1400.00 3723.00Stated Total (2000-2032)Average

    Pvt. Sponsors Equity

    Cameroon Equity

    Total Debt & Equity

  • 12.00 Volume (mm 595.00Project Cash Flow

    Mod. Volume

    304.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00736.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    1101.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00864.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00519.00 42.00 29.2 14.29 10.62 600.00 310.37137.00 81.00 56.4 14.64 10.88 1186.00 613.2416.00 81.00 56.4 14.78 10.98 1197.00 619.1013.00 81.00 56.4 14.94 11.10 1210.00 625.8113.00 81.00 56.4 15.05 11.18 1219.00 630.411.00 79.00 55.0 15.20 11.30 1201.00 620.981.00 65.00 45.2 15.28 11.35 993.00 513.621.00 51.00 35.5 15.57 11.57 794.00 410.641.00 39.00 27.1 15.59 11.59 608.00 314.421.00 32.00 22.3 15.88 11.80 508.00 262.791.00 28.00 19.5 16.07 11.94 450.00 232.691.00 25.00 17.4 16.20 12.04 405.00 209.441.00 23.00 16.0 15.87 11.79 365.00 188.761.00 20.00 13.9 16.55 12.30 331.00 171.171.00 19.00 13.2 16.11 11.97 306.00 158.291.00 17.00 11.8 16.53 12.28 281.00 145.321.00 15.00 10.4 16.93 12.58 254.00 131.331.00 14.00 9.7 16.79 12.48 235.00 121.561.00 13.00 9.0 17.08 12.69 222.00 114.821.00 12.00 8.4 17.33 12.88 208.00 107.541.00 11.00 7.7 17.45 12.97 192.00 99.261.00 10.00 7.0 18.10 13.45 181.00 93.601.00 9.00 6.3 17.33 12.88 156.00 80.661.00 7.00 4.9 18.00 13.38 126.00 65.16

    3722.00 855.00 595.00 0.00 13228.00 6840.993737.00 883.00 614.49 0.00 13721.00 0.00

    16.15

    Capital Investment

    Volume (mm bbl)

    Price per Barrel

    Mod. Price /bbl

    Rev ($ Million)

    Mod. Rev($ M)

  • Project Cash Flow

    Op Costs Other Uses Op cash Flow DSCR

    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!

    100.00 74.57 67.00 433.00 168.81 205.00 0.46184.00 131.37 108.00 894.00 373.87 348.00 0.70174.00 135.21 16.00 1007.00 467.89 337.00 1.00175.00 139.06 33.00 1002.00 453.75 249.00 1.35182.00 142.90 13.00 1024.00 474.51 191.00 1.92181.00 144.03 1.00 1019.00 475.95 148.00 2.48166.00 128.87 1.00 826.00 383.75 106.00 2.71151.00 113.70 1.00 642.00 295.94 83.00 2.62137.00 101.25 1.00 470.00 212.17 66.00 2.27131.00 95.59 1.00 376.00 166.20 57.00 1.98125.00 94.00 1.00 324.00 137.69 46.00 1.50122.00 93.78 2.00 281.00 113.66 37.00 1.38120.00 94.90 1.00 244.00 92.86 29.00 1.15119.00 94.68 0.00 212.00 76.50 8.00 3.22150.00 97.16 2.00 154.00 59.13 0.00 #DIV/0!115.00 98.29 2.00 164.00 45.03 0.00 #DIV/0!113.00 99.42 2.00 139.00 29.91 0.00 #DIV/0!111.00 101.91 2.00 122.00 17.65 0.00 #DIV/0!109.00 104.39 2.00 111.00 8.43 0.00 #DIV/0!109.00 106.88 1.00 98.00 -0.34 0.00 #DIV/0!106.00 109.37 2.00 84.00 -12.10 0.00 #DIV/0!106.00 111.85 1.00 74.00 -19.25 0.00 #DIV/0!101.00 114.34 1.00 54.00 -34.68 0.00 #DIV/0!95.00 115.47 2.00 29.00 -52.31 0.00 #DIV/0!

    3182.00 2642.99 263.00 9783.00 3935.01 1910.003183.00 #VALUE! n/a #VALUE! #VALUE! 1909.00

    MOD. Op costs

    Mod. Opr. Cash

    Total Debt Service

  • DSRF

    FCF Mod. FCF Opening Bal. Closing Bal.

    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 177.00 0.00

    228.00 -159.66 177.00 300.47 123.47546.00 35.37 300.47 290.97 -9.50670.00 206.87 290.97 214.99 -75.98753.00 254.83 214.99 164.91 -50.08833.00 320.64 164.91 127.79 -37.13871.00 364.21 127.79 91.52 -36.26720.00 297.61 91.52 71.66 -19.86559.00 227.62 71.66 56.99 -14.68404.00 153.94 56.99 49.21 -7.77319.00 118.69 49.21 39.72 -9.50278.00 99.46 39.72 31.95 -7.77244.00 83.57 31.95 25.04 -6.91215.00 81.99 25.04 6.91 -18.13204.00 75.40 6.91 0.00 -6.91154.00 59.13 0.00 0.00 0.00164.00 45.03 0.00 0.00 0.00139.00 29.91 0.00 0.00 0.00122.00 17.65 0.00 0.00 0.00111.00 8.43 0.00 0.00 0.00

    98.00 -0.34 0.00 0.00 0.0084.00 -12.10 0.00 0.00 0.0074.00 -19.25 0.00 0.00 0.0054.00 -34.68 0.00 0.00 0.0029.00 -52.31 0.00 1649.12 0.00

    7873.00 2025.01 1649.12 1648.26 0.00#VALUE! #VALUE! 1648.26 0.00 0.00

    Chng in total cash flow

  • US $ millionChad Returns

    Year

    Royalty Mod. Royalty0 2000 0 0 0.00% 0 0 01 2001 0 0 0.00% 0 0 02 2002 0 0 0.00% 0 0 03 2003 0 0 0.00% 0 0 04 2004 -159.6613323 22 3.67% 11.4 33.848778315 05 2005 35.370033008 55 4.64% 28.4 58.483813529 06 2006 206.87264877 70 5.85% 36.2 58.483813529 07 2007 254.82765826 81 6.69% 41.9 58.483813529 08 2008 320.6394883 89 7.30% 46.0 58.483813529 09 2009 364.20938661 96 7.99% 49.6 57.22047839 0

    10 2010 297.61219481 78 7.85% 40.3 48.377132416 011 2011 227.61953132 59 7.43% 30.5 39.533786442 012 2012 153.94333532 41 6.74% 21.2 31.953775607 013 2013 118.69437903 32 6.30% 16.6 27.53210262 014 2014 99.456962463 39 8.67% 20.2 25.005432341 25.04312004515 2015 83.572002741 39 9.63% 20.2 23.110429633 25.34560738916 2016 81.987179139 36 9.86% 18.6 21.847094493 25.16815731717 2017 75.403878049 35 10.57% 18.1 19.952091785 22.91686489718 2018 59.127918752 28 9.15% 14.5 19.320424215 16.50974354819 2019 45.029195914 29 10.32% 15.0 18.057089076 12.90470858520 2020 29.906544692 26 10.24% 13.4 16.793753937 8.391044913521 2021 17.651058462 24 10.21% 12.4 16.162086367 4.774466633122 2022 8.4311578932 22 9.91% 11.4 15.530418798 2.278691322523 2023 -0.336906355 20 9.62% 10.3 14.898751228 024 2024 -12.10304221 18 9.38% 9.3 14.267083658 025 2025 -19.2524722 17 9.39% 8.8 13.635416089 026 2026 -34.68317069 14 8.97% 7.2 13.003748519 027 2027 -52.31 11 8.73% 5.7 11.74041338 0

    Total 2025.0069434 981 507.3 552

    FCF to distribute

    Royalty as %age of Rev.

    Royalty on basis of volume (using this now)

    Upstream Tax

  • Chad Returns

    Pipeline Tax %chad Total0.00% 0 0 0 0.00% 0 00.00% 0 0 0 0.00% 0 00.00% 0 0 0 0.00% 0 00.00% 0 0 0 0.00% 0 00.00% 0 0.0043859649 8 4.30% 0 33.8487783150.00% 0.9069239233 0.0256410256 11 4.04% 0 59.3907374520.00% 2.4701211793 0.0119402985 10 4.10% 0 60.9539347080.00% 1.6920827242 0.0066401062 10 4.18% 0 60.1758962530.00% 0.769842709 0.0024009604 10 4.27% 0 59.2536562380.00% 9.1993186056 0.0252583238 8 3.98% 0 66.4197969950.00% 10.747107035 0.0361111111 6 3.59% 1.8676191938 60.9918586440.00% 8.9581926461 0.0393559928 6 3.95% 3.0909400927 51.582919180.00% 7.2399093344 0.047029703 5 3.68% 0 39.1936849410.00% 6.3254057792 0.0532915361 5 4.03% 0 33.857508399

    25.18% 3.21982972 0.0323741007 1 2.78% 0 53.26838210630.33% 1.3700328318 0.0163934426 0 0.00% 0 49.82606985330.70% 1.5253428677 0.0186046512 0 0.00% 0 48.54059467830.39% 0.7392537064 0.0098039216 0 0.00% 0 43.60821038827.92% 0.7678950487 0.012987013 0 0.00% 0 36.59806281228.66% 0.5491365355 0.012195122 0 0.00% 0 31.51093419628.06% 0.2151549978 0.0071942446 0 0.00% 0 25.39995384827.05% 0.1446808071 0.0081967213 0 0.00% 0 21.08123380727.03% 0.0759563774 0.009009009 0 0.00% 0 17.88506649725.51% 0 0.0102040816 0 0.00% 0 14.89875122826.19% 0 0.0119047619 0 0.00% 0 14.26708365827.03% 0 0.0135135135 0 0.00% 0 13.63541608929.63% 0 0.0185185185 0 0.00% 0 13.00374851917.24% 0 0.0344827586 0 0.00% 0 11.74041338

    167 80 920.93269219

    % of net profit(upstream)

    % of net profit(pipeline)

    Share of ROE

    corrected Share of ROE

  • Cameroon Returns

    Transit Tax Pipeline Tax %cam.0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 00 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 00 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 00 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0

    11.924299612 7.46% 0 0.00% 12 6.45% 022.996863537 6.04% 0.0647802802 0.18% 18 6.62% 022.996863537 4.93% 0 0.00% 16 6.56% 022.996863537 4.38% 0 0.00% 15 6.28% 022.996863537 3.96% 0 0.00% 15 6.41% 022.429039746 3.67% 0.4181508457 0.11% 14 6.97% 018.454273208 3.75% 4.5468529762 1.53% 12 7.19% 1.697835630714.479506671 3.76% 4.0719057482 1.79% 11 7.24% 2.809945538811.072563925 3.96% 3.0483828776 1.98% 10 7.35% 09.0851806565 4.08% 2.6045788503 2.19% 9 7.26% 07.9495330744 4.32% 1.0732765733 1.08% 3 8.33% 07.0977973879 4.10% 0.6850164159 0.82% 1 14.29% 06.5299735969 4.19% 0.3813357169 0.47% 1 14.29% 05.6782379103 3.92% 0.3696268532 0.49% 1 11.11% 05.3943260148 5.19% 0.3839475244 0.65% 0 0.00% 04.8265022238 4.27% 0.2745682678 0.61% 0 0.00% 04.2586784327 4.32% 0.2151549978 0.72% 0 0.00% 03.9747665372 4.92% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 03.6908546417 4.50% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 03.4069427462 5.10% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 03.1230308507 4.76% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 02.8391189552 5.41% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 02.5552070596 7.41% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 01.9873832686 10.34% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0

    349 48 138

    %of net profit

    % of net profit

    Share of ROE

    CorrectedShare of ROE

  • Cameroon Returns Private Sponsors Returns

    Total %age of rev. %spon0 0.00 00 See yellow box 0.00 #VALUE!0 (at 2nd last column) 0.00 #VALUE!0 0.00 0

    11.924299612 0.00 0.0023.061643817 0.00 0.0022.996863537 0.00 0.0022.996863537 0.00 0.0022.996863537 0.00 0.0022.847190591 0.00 0.0024.698961815 15.11 15.1121.361357958 25.01 25.0114.120946803 0.00 0.0011.689759507 0.00 0.009.0228096478 0.00 0.007.7828138038 0.00 0.006.9113093138 0.00 0.006.0478647635 0.00 0.005.7782735392 0.00 0.005.1010704915 0.00 0.004.4738334305 0.00 0.003.9747665372 0.00 0.003.6908546417 0.00 0.003.4069427462 0.00 0.003.1230308507 0.00 0.002.8391189552 0.00 0.002.5552070596 0.00 0.001.9873832686 0.00 0.00265.39002976 1850.00 0 5753

    Upstream Cash Flow

    CorrectedShare of ROE

    Mod. Share of ROE

    Total(see last box)

  • 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0

    45.77308 -205.4344 45.77 -251.21 -251.2182.45238 -47.08235 82.45 -129.53 -129.53

    83.9508 122.9219 83.95 38.97 38.9783.17276 171.6549 83.17 88.48 88.4882.25052 238.389 82.25 156.14 156.1489.26699 274.9424 89.27 185.68 185.6882.12537 215.4868 100.80 114.69 129.8067.04339 160.5761 97.95 62.62 87.6353.31463 100.6287 53.31 47.31 47.3145.54727 73.14711 45.55 27.60 27.6062.29119 37.16577 62.29 -25.13 -25.1357.60888 25.96312 57.61 -31.65 -31.65

    55.4519 26.53528 55.45 -28.92 -28.9249.65608 25.7478 49.66 -23.91 -23.9142.37634 16.75158 42.38 -25.62 -25.62

    36.612 8.417191 36.61 -28.19 -28.1929.87379 0.032757 29.87 -29.84 -29.84

    25.056 -7.404942 25.06 -32.46 -32.4621.57592 -13.14476 21.58 -34.72 -34.7218.30569 -18.6426 18.31 -36.95 -36.9517.39011 -29.49316 17.39 -46.88 -46.8816.47454 -35.72701 16.47 -52.20 -52.2015.55896 -50.24213 15.56 -65.80 -65.80

    13.7278 -66.03848 13.73 -79.77 -79.77

    Royalty+taxes

    Distributable fcf

    total of chad+cam+pvt spn.

    Upstream cash flow

    Total of Pvt. Spon.

    Return

  • Volume 595Price 12 15.25

    Chad cam. spon. Chad cam.2000 0 0 0 0 02001 0 0 0 0 02002 0 0 0 0 02003 0 0 0 0 02004 53.728429592 20.80239 -120.10 54.37161 20.802392005 107.09257736 40.86993 114.14 114.5219 41.400592006 103.57434437 40.1189 298.55 107.067 40.11892007 100.820354 40.1189 357.00 102.7837 40.11892008 98.278311083 40.1189 431.32 98.99345 40.11892009 116.86828441 43.28929 433.31 124.279 43.626152010 106.2714208 46.25344 319.07 115.0347 49.960962011 88.140379256 39.02408 238.27 95.77621 42.494912012 72.53844179 31.53583 151.63 79.52511 34.477582013 63.480699646 27.37462 111.50 70.09746 30.099172014 114.06153554 22.35725 -16.15 145.3038 23.543672015 110.32465947 20.44023 -34.02 141.9581 21.251342016 97.543861339 12.31864 -20.45 126.5808 12.733452017 86.99844917 11.11485 -12.94 112.371 11.51132018 75.458523524 11.4351 -13.91 97.31237 11.920742019 67.798097852 10.24952 -17.96 88.3126 10.668192020 56.228052618 8.23892 -16.41 74.08389 8.6853162021 48.943596148 6.934131 -17.75 64.94967 6.9341312022 44.20453137 6.438835 -20.51 59.35607 6.4388352023 38.477530368 5.94354 -21.24 51.95828 5.943542024 33.317698439 5.448245 -26.85 46.15943 5.4482452025 29.782805206 4.95295 -29.14 42.33307 4.952952026 22.358762212 4.457655 -37.36 34.35605 4.4576552027 15.032516125 3.467065 -47.87 19.1523 3.467065

  • 15.25 18.5 Price 12spon. Chad cam. spon. Debt taken Chad

    0 0 0 0 2000 -90 0 0 0 2001 -60 0 0 0 2002 -90 0 0 0 2003 -8

    25.26132 55.01479 20.80239 170.6203 2004 42.728429592387.9609 121.9512 41.93126 661.784 2005 103.09257736584.0736 110.5597 40.1189 869.602 2006 103.57434437648.7518 104.7471 40.1189 940.5055 2007 100.820354727.7518 99.7086 40.1189 1024.179 2008 98.278311083711.2098 131.6898 43.963 989.1129 2009 116.86828441536.8071 123.7979 53.66849 754.5398 2010 106.2714208410.0811 103.412 45.96575 581.8874 2011 88.140379256280.3331 86.51177 37.41933 409.0348 2012 72.53844179216.9753 76.71423 32.82372 322.4543 2013 63.48069964628.93154 176.5461 24.73009 74.01537 2014 114.061535540.044935 173.5916 22.06246 34.11174 2015 110.324659479.830252 155.6178 13.14827 40.11166 2016 97.543861339

    16.3979 137.7436 11.90775 45.73495 2017 86.9984491716.19512 119.1662 12.40639 46.30486 2018 75.4585235248.838549 108.8271 11.08685 35.633 2019 67.7980978529.030407 91.93973 9.131712 34.47498 2020 56.2280526187.668044 80.95574 6.934131 33.08945 2021 48.9435961483.442575 74.50761 6.438835 27.39179 2022 44.204531372.610223 65.43903 5.94354 26.46078 2023 38.477530368

    -5.632764 59.00116 5.448245 15.58401 2024 33.317698439-10.01946 54.88334 4.95295 9.104762 2025 29.782805206-23.24751 46.35334 4.457655 -9.133052 2026 22.358762212-25.32643 25.52188 3.467065 -7.279293 2027 15.032516125

    NPV $488.79 IRR 80%

  • 12 15.25 18.5cam. spon. Chad cam. spon. Chad cam.

    -13 -24 -9 -13 -24 -9 -13-10 -298 -6 -10 -298 -6 -10-15 -611 -9 -15 -611 -9 -15-14 -559 -8 -14 -559 -8 -14

    2.8023915914 -529.0977063439 43.37161 2.802392 -383.7386799 44.014792658 2.802391591440.869928931 -190.8621617779 110.5219 41.40059 82.960916715 117.95119403 41.93125869340.118898069 298.5451875475 107.067 40.1189 584.07357512 110.55974834 40.11889806940.118898069 356.9981273069 102.7837 40.1189 648.75181099 104.7470523 40.11889806940.118898069 431.3246334869 98.99345 40.1189 727.7517587 99.70859878 40.11889806943.289294521 433.3067652023 124.279 43.62615 711.20984964 131.68978225 43.96299896946.253442387 319.0743964077 115.0347 49.96096 536.80708067 123.79789074 53.66848736239.024076591 238.2748253973 95.77621 42.49491 410.08112102 103.41204998 45.96574510131.535828116 151.6313603689 79.52511 34.47758 280.33306399 86.511769612 37.41933456727.374619221 111.4963373669 70.09746 30.09917 216.97533122 76.71422655 32.82371853422.357254526 -16.1522988852 145.3038 23.54367 28.931536748 176.54614984 24.73008798120.440227815 -34.0218678135 141.9581 21.25134 0.0449350355 173.59157905 22.06245652212.318640983 -20.4511556062 126.5808 12.73345 9.8302518676 155.61779348 13.14826858511.114853541 -12.9391519685 112.371 11.5113 16.397897984 137.74361666 11.90774678311.435103317 -13.9146237666 97.31237 11.92074 16.195116158 119.16621051 12.4063852510.24952385 -17.9558975678 88.3126 10.66819 8.8385492402 108.82709453 11.086850313

    8.2389203883 -16.4141660358 74.08389 8.685316 9.0304069465 91.939733997 9.13171242286.9341305305 -17.7533614904 64.94967 6.934131 7.6680438356 80.955736188 6.93413053056.4388354926 -20.5066359933 59.35607 6.438835 3.4425752198 74.507614946 6.43883549265.9435404547 -21.2403303157 51.95828 5.94354 2.6102230098 65.439025432 5.94354045475.4482454168 -26.8495364414 46.15943 5.448245 -5.632763862 59.001159982 5.44824541684.9529503789 -29.1436776228 42.33307 4.95295 -10.01945777 54.883343762 4.95295037894.457655341 -37.3619675276 34.35605 4.457655 -23.24750964 46.353340618 4.457655341

    3.4670652652 -47.8731539889 19.1523 3.467065 -25.32643244 25.521881768 3.4670652652$124.31 ($656.99) $550.70 $129.53 $355.67 $612.76 $134.75

    35% -8% 81% 35% 14% 83% 36%

  • 18.5 Equityspon. Chad Cam Pvt spn.

    -24 -9 -13 -24-298 -6 -10 -298-611 -9 -15 -611-559 -8 -14 -559

    -238.3796535 -11 -18 -409356.78399521 -4 0 -305869.60196269 0 0 0940.50549468 0 0 01024.1788839 0 0 0989.11293407 0 0 0754.53976492 0 0 0581.88741664 0 0 0409.03476762 0 0 0322.45432507 0 0 074.015372382 0 0 034.111737885 0 0 040.111659341 0 0 045.734947936 0 0 046.304856083 0 0 035.632996048 0 0 034.474979929 0 0 033.089449162 0 0 027.391786433 0 0 026.460776335 0 0 015.584008718 0 0 09.104762081 0 0 0

    -9.133051756 0 0 0-7.279293459 0 0 0

    $1,368.02 25%

  • PAT Amount invested as Eq.Volume COTCO PATTOTCO PAT Chad Cam

    0.00 0 0 -9 -130.00 0 0 -6 -100.00 0 0 -9 -150.00 0 0 -8 -14

    29.23 10 0 -11 -1856.37 117.7508 6.060606 -4 056.37 117.7508 6.060606 0 056.37 117.7508 6.060606 0 056.37 117.7508 6.060606 0 054.98 116.5208 6.060606 0 045.23 107.9112 6.060606 0 035.49 99.3016 6.060606 0 027.14 10 0 0 022.27 10 0 0 019.49 0 0 0 017.40 0 0 0 016.01 0 0 0 013.92 0 0 0 013.22 0 0 0 011.83 0 0 0 010.44 0 0 0 0

    9.74 0 0 0 09.05 0 0 0 08.35 0 0 0 07.65 0 0 0 06.96 0 0 0 06.26 0 0 0 04.87 0 0 0 0

    595.00 824.7367 42.42424

  • Amount invested as Eq.Pvt spn.

    0.00 5.00%-128.08 COTCO TOTCO-176.50 Volume Earnings VOL Earnings-166.17

  • FCFFCALCULATING NPV and IRR

    YEAR COTCO TOTCO2000 -13 -92001 -125.4643 -18.612772002 -174.0357 -26.463832003 -164.3214 -23.846812004 -193.1786 -31.697872005 117.7508 -7.3181172006 117.7508 6.0606062007 117.7508 6.060606

    MOD. PVT. SPN. Eq in 2008 117.7508 6.060606Year TOTCO COTCO Total in yea 2009 116.5208 6.060606

    2000 0 0 0 2010 107.9112 6.0606062001 12.61277 115.4643 128.0771 2011 99.3016 6.0606062002 17.46383 159.0357 176.4995 2012 10 02003 15.84681 150.3214 166.1682 2013 10 02004 20.69787 185.1786 205.8764 2014 0 02005 9.378723 9.378723 2015 0 0

    2016 0 02017 0 02018 0 02019 0 02020 0 02021 0 02022 0 02023 0 02024 0 02025 0 02026 0 02027 0 0

    NPV ($126.77) ($68.65)IRR 4% Err:523

    nominal su 144.7367 -80.57576

  • YEARDEBT/year taken by Total debt 2000

    Year TOTCO COTCO 20012000 44.775 270.225 315 20022001 44.34857 267.6514 312 20032002 66.38071 400.6193 467 20042003 40.22643 242.7736 283 20052004 3.269286 19.73071 23 20062005 0 0 2007

    20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    NPVIRR

  • FCFECALCULATING NPV and IRRCOTCO TOTCO YEAR Debt sevici

    257.23 35.78 2000 0.00142.19 25.74 2001 0.00226.58 39.92 2002 0.00

    78.45 16.38 2003 0.00-349.31 -57.57 2004 205.00-180.78 -56.78 2005 348.00-171.35 -41.84 2006 337.00

    -95.86 -29.33 2007 249.00-46.10 -21.09 2008 191.00-10.44 -14.98 2009 148.0016.98 -9.01 2010 106.0028.10 -5.74 2011 83.00

    -46.62 -9.38 2012 66.00-38.90 -8.10 2013 57.00-39.46 -6.54 2014 46.00-31.74 -5.26 2015 37.00-24.88 -4.12 2016 29.00

    -6.86 -1.14 2017 8.000.00 0.00 2018 0.000.00 0.00 2019 0.000.00 0.00 2020 0.000.00 0.00 2021 0.000.00 0.00 2022 0.000.00 0.00 2023 0.000.00 0.00 2024 0.000.00 0.00 2025 0.000.00 0.00 2026 0.000.00 0.00 2027 0.00

    68.65 -36.277.07% 17.56%

  • TOTCO COTCO0.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.00

    29.14 175.8649.47 298.5347.90 289.1035.39 213.6127.15 163.8521.04 126.9615.07 90.9311.80 71.20

    9.38 56.628.10 48.906.54 39.465.26 31.744.12 24.881.14 6.860.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.00

  • RoyaltyOp cash Flow Revenue

    %age of rev% of opr. Rev0 0 0 0 0.00% 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!0 0 0 0 0.00% 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!0 0 0 0 0.00% 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!0 0 0 0 0.00% 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

    22 433 600 5.08% 3.67% 19 3.17% 8.33%55 894 1186 6.15% 4.64% 141 11.89% 25.82%70 1007 1197 6.95% 5.85% 369 30.83% 55.07%81 1002 1210 8.08% 6.69% 448 37.02% 59.50%89 1024 1219 8.69% 7.30% 498 40.85% 59.78%96 1019 1201 9.42% 7.99% 543 45.21% 62.34%78 826 993 9.44% 7.85% 425 42.80% 59.03%59 642 794 9.19% 7.43% 304 38.29% 54.38%41 470 608 8.72% 6.74% 189 31.09% 46.78%32 376 508 8.51% 6.30% 132 25.98% 41.38%39 324 450 12.04% 8.67% 113 25.11% 40.65%39 281 405 13.88% 9.63% 112 27.65% 45.90%36 244 365 14.75% 9.86% 101 27.67% 46.98%35 212 331 16.51% 10.57% 95 28.70% 46.57%28 154 306 18.18% 9.15% 66 21.57% 42.86%29 164 281 17.68% 10.32% 72 25.62% 43.90%26 139 254 18.71% 10.24% 60 23.62% 43.17%24 122 235 19.67% 10.21% 52 22.13% 42.62%22 111 222 19.82% 9.91% 46 20.72% 41.44%20 98 208 20.41% 9.62% 40 19.23% 40.82%18 84 192 21.43% 9.38% 33 17.19% 39.29%17 74 181 22.97% 9.39% 25 13.81% 33.78%14 54 156 25.93% 8.97% 15 9.62% 27.78%11 29 126 37.93% 8.73% 5 3.97% 17.24%

    981 9783 10.03% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!9857 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

    Royalty as %age

    Royalty as %age of Rev.

    Upstream Cash Flow

  • % of opr. Rev Chad ROE %chad cam. ROE %cam. spon. ROE %spon0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0

    228 8 4.30% 12 6.45% 166 89.25%546 11 4.04% 18 6.62% 243 89.34%670 10 4.10% 16 6.56% 218 89.34%753 10 4.18% 15 6.28% 214 89.54%833 10 4.27% 15 6.41% 209 89.32%871 8 3.98% 14 6.97% 179 89.05%720 6 3.59% 12 7.19% 149 89.22%559 6 3.95% 11 7.24% 135 88.82%404 5 3.68% 10 7.35% 121 88.97%319 5 4.03% 9 7.26% 110 88.71%278 1 2.78% 3 8.33% 32 88.89%244 0 0.00% 1 14.29% 6 85.71%215 0 0.00% 1 14.29% 6 85.71%204 0 0.00% 1 11.11% 8 88.89%154 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 7 100.00%164 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 7 100.00%139 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 6 100.00%122 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 6 100.00%111 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 6 100.00%

    98 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 5 100.00%84 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 5 100.00%74 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 5 100.00%54 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 4 100.00%29 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 3 100.00%

    cash avail to distr

  • total royalty+ta Difference0 #REF! 0 00 #REF! 0 00 #REF! 0 00 #REF! 0 0

    186 #REF! #REF! 19 #REF! #REF! 99.487671272 #REF! #REF! 141 #REF! #REF! 179.42797244 #REF! #REF! 369 #REF! #REF! 183.2726239 #REF! #REF! 448 #REF! #REF! 187.11722234 #REF! #REF! 498 #REF! #REF! 190.96185201 #REF! #REF! 543 #REF! #REF! 190.90414167 #REF! #REF! 425 #REF! #REF! 167.43237152 #REF! #REF! 304 #REF! #REF! 143.96061136 #REF! #REF! 189 #REF! #REF! 124.39118124 #REF! #REF! 132 #REF! #REF! 114.57761

    36 #REF! #REF! 113 #REF! #REF! 110.617567 #REF! #REF! 112 #REF! #REF! 108.608677 #REF! #REF! 101 #REF! #REF! 108.550969 #REF! #REF! 95 #REF! #REF! 106.542087 #REF! #REF! 66 #REF! #REF! 108.435537 #REF! #REF! 72 #REF! #REF! 108.377826 #REF! #REF! 60 #REF! #REF! 108.320116 #REF! #REF! 52 #REF! #REF! 110.213566 #REF! #REF! 46 #REF! #REF! 112.107025 #REF! #REF! 40 #REF! #REF! 114.000485 #REF! #REF! 33 #REF! #REF! 115.893935 #REF! #REF! 25 #REF! #REF! 117.787394 #REF! #REF! 15 #REF! #REF! 119.680853 #REF! #REF! 5 #REF! #REF! 119.62314

    total_royalty+taxes

    Upstream Cash Flow

    with year no. and vol.

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

    20406080

    100120140160180200

    Chart Title

  • 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

    20406080

    100120140160180200

    Chart Title

  • Year no.Op Costs

    calc. trend line0 0 0 01 0 0 02 0 0 03 0 0 04 42 100 131.45915 81 184 192.06746 81 174 192.06747 81 175 192.06748 81 182 192.06749 79 181 188.9593

    10 65 166 167.2025 SUMMARY OUTPUT11 51 151 145.445612 39 137 126.7969 Regression Statistics13 32 131 115.9184 Multiple R 0.80391114 28 125 109.7022 R Square 0.64627315 25 122 105.04 Adjusted R Square 0.63266916 23 120 101.9319 Standard Error 33.1270517 20 119 97.26971 Observations 2818 19 150 95.7156519 17 115 92.60753 ANOVA20 15 113 89.49941 df SS21 14 111 87.94534 Regression 1 52129.9922 13 109 86.39128 Residual 26 28532.4423 12 109 84.83722 Total 27 80662.4324 11 106 83.2831625 10 106 81.7291 CoefficientsStandard Error26 9 101 80.17504 Intercept 66.18849 9.30583727 7 95 77.06691 Volume (mm bbl) 1.554061 0.22548

    855 3182 1394.911883 3183 1438.425

    66.18849 operating cost=66.19+1.55*vol

    Volume (mm bbl)

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

    20406080

    100120140160180200

    Chart Title

  • 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

    20406080

    100120140160180200

    Chart Title

  • MS F Significance F52129.99 47.50311 2.57E-0071097.402

    t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%7.112577 1.49E-007 47.06006 85.31691 47.06006 85.31691

    6.89225 2.57E-007 1.090581 2.017541 1.090581 2.017541

  • SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.968952R Square 0.938867Adjusted R 0.933977Standard Er 14.04438Observatio 28

    ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

    Regression 2 75731.31 37865.66 191.973 6.74E-016Residual 25 4931.117 197.2447Total 27 80662.43

    CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Intercept 2.159978 7.058845 0.305996 0.762141 -12.37798 16.69794 -12.37798Year no. 3.844628 0.35147 10.9387 5.09E-011 3.120761 4.568495 3.120761Volume (mm1.951171 0.102254 19.08152 2.04E-016 1.740574 2.161768 1.740574

  • Upper 95.0%16.697944.5684952.161768

  • dollar pricevolume12 595

    15.25 91718.5 1038

    Price/bbl Volume12 595

    15.25 91718.5 1038

  • Royalty SUMMARY OUTPUT0 0 0 00 0 0 0 Regression Statistics0 0 0 0 Multiple R0 0 0 0 R Square1 42 22 45.44174 -23.44174 Adjusted R

    14 81 55 80.84166 -25.84166 Standard Er8 81 70 80.84166 -10.84166 Observatio5 81 81 80.84166 0.1583392 81 89 80.84166 8.158339 ANOVA

    22 79 96 79.02628 16.9737226 65 78 66.31861 11.68139 Regression22 51 59 53.61095 5.389051 Residual19 39 41 42.71866 -1.718665 Total17 32 32 36.36483 -4.3648329 28 39 32.73407 6.265929 Coefficients4 25 39 30.011 8.989 Intercept4 23 36 28.19562 7.804381 Volume (mm2 20 35 25.47255 9.5274522 19 28 24.56486 3.4351432 17 29 22.74948 6.2505231 15 26 20.9341 5.0659041 14 24 20.02641 3.9735941 13 22 19.11872 2.8812851 12 20 18.21102 1.7889751 11 18 17.30333 0.6966661 10 17 16.39564 0.6043561 9 14 15.48795 -1.4879541 7 11 13.67257 -2.672573

    1.21979

    Pipeline Tax(CHAD)

    Volume (mm bbl)

  • SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics0.9368790.8777420.873039

    9.7607428

    df SS MS F Significance F1 17783.89 17783.89 186.6643 2.24E-013

    26 2477.073 95.2720427 20260.96

    CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%7.31874 2.741924 2.669199 0.012926 1.682635 12.95485 1.6826350.90769 0.066437 13.66252 2.24E-013 0.771128 1.044253 0.771128

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.619137R Square 0.383331Adjusted R 0.359613Standard Er 6.38889Observatio 28

    ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

    Regression 1 659.6986 659.6986 16.16199 0.000444Residual 26 1061.266 40.81791Total 27 1720.964

    CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Intercept 0.625958 1.794725 0.348777 0.730066 -3.063153 4.315069Volume (mm0.174822 0.043486 4.020198 0.000444 0.085436 0.264209

  • Upper 95.0%12.954851.044253

    Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%-3.063153 4.3150690.085436 0.264209

  • cameroon

    Transit Tax Pipeline Tax SUMMARY OUTPUT0 0 00 0 0 Regression Statistics0 0 0 Multiple R0 0 0 R Square

    42 17 0 Adjusted R81 33 1 Standard Er81 33 0 Observatio81 33 081 33 0 ANOVA79 32 165 27 11 Regression51 21 10 Residual39 16 8 Total32 13 728 12 3 Coefficients25 10 2 Intercept23 9 1 X Variable 20 8 119 8 117 7 115 6 114 6 013 5 012 5 011 4 010 4 0

    9 4 07 3 0

    Volume (mm bbl)

  • SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics0.9997310.9994630.9994380.264788

    24

    df SS MS F Significance F1 2868.416 2868.416 40911.65 1.82E-037

    22 1.542474 0.07011223 2869.958

    CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%0.007584 0.089915 0.084352 0.933539 -0.178887 0.194056 -0.1788870.407974 0.002017 202.2663 1.82E-037 0.403791 0.412157 0.403791

  • Upper 95.0%0.1940560.412157

  • Volume Total earninVolumeCOTCO TOTCO

    0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 07 0 7 09 0 9 0

    10 0 10 011 0 11 012 0 12 013 0 13 014 0 14 015 0 15 017 0 17 0

    ***** 19 0 19 020 10 20 023 10 23 025 10 25 028 30 28 032 90 32 4.54545539 100 39 042 120 42 18.1818251 110 51 4.54545565 120 65 0

    **** 79 140 79 9.09090981 180 81 18.1818281 160 81 18.1818281 150 81 22.7272781 150 81 22.72727

    from 20-79SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.858668R Square 0.737311Adjusted R 0.704475Standard Er 28.67432Observatio 10

    ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

  • Regression 1 18462.27 18462.27 22.45426 0.001467Residual 8 6577.733 822.2166Total 9 25040

    CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Intercept -20.24761 21.85883 -0.92629 0.38139 -70.65417 30.15895X Variable 2.332862 0.492311 4.738593 0.001467 1.19759 3.468133

  • 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    COTCO

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25Chart Title

  • Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%-70.65417 30.15895

    1.19759 3.468133

  • TOTCO

    Volume Earnings

  • Revenue of Totco and Cotco from projected cash flows 4.4B

    Share of ROE of

    Holdings Year chad from bothTotco Cotco 2000 0

    Spons. 89% 85% 2001 0Chad 11% 5% 2002 0Cam. 0% 10% 2003 0

    2004 82005 112006 102007 102008 102009 82010 62011 62012 52013 52014 12015 02016 02017 02018 02019 02020 02021 02022 02023 02024 02025 02026 02027 0

  • Revenue of Totco and Cotco from projected cash flows 4.4B

    Share of ROE of Total earnings of Share of Parties concerned

    cam. From COTCO COTCO TOTCO CHAD0 0 0 -9 19.15%0 0 0 -6 12.77%0 0 0 -9 19.15%0 0 0 -8 17.02%

    12 120 18.18182 -3 23.40%18 180 18.18182 7 8.51%16 160 18.18182 10 100.00%15 150 22.72727 1015 150 22.72727 1014 140 9.090909 812 120 0 611 110 4.545455 610 100 0 5

    9 90 4.545455 53 30 0 1.51 10 0 0.51 10 0 0.51 10 0 0.50 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0

    1380 118.1818 82

    Total Cap. 1881 322 NPV $1.28 NPV negative IRR 11%IRR negative

    Equity share %age

  • Revenue of Totco and Cotco from projected cash flows 4.4B

    Share of Parties concerned 76 610

    CAM. Pvt. Spons. DATA-13 18.57% 0 14.55319 113.2857 127.8389 24-10 14.29% 0 9.702128 87.14286 96.84498 298-15 21.43% 0 14.55319 130.7143 145.2675 611-14 20.00% 0 12.93617 122 134.9362 559

    -6 25.71% 118.1818 17.78723 156.8571 174.6444 40918 100.00% 169.1818 6.468085 610 679.5319 30516 152.1818 7615 147.727315 147.727314 127.090912 10211 97.5454510 85

    9 80.545453 25.51 8.51 8.51 8.50 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0

    138 1278.182

    $6.78 12%

    Equity share %age

    Pvt. Spn. Equity in TOTCO

    Pvt. Spn. Equity in COTCO

    AssumptionsExhibit 4.4 A (OLALA)4.4 B(OLALA)NPV IRR(vol wise)TOTCO n COTCO FINALratios n reg.royalty n dropcam. trnsit tax n pp taxTOTCO n COTCO calculationcotco totco