CGW4UChapter 5: Population Theories

The Theory of Demographic Transition• Demographic transition is the phenomenon of population

changes in a country over time.

Birth rate decline due to increased opportunities for women (i.e. work, delay of children until older, etc.)

Birth rates and death rates are high

Death rate declines due to increased food production and improved medical care

Birth rates and death rates are low

Pre-Transition Early Transition Late Transition Post-Transition

What’s Stage 5?? Declining Population, Many Older People, etc. Think CANADA or Germany now!!

Divergent Ideas About Population GrowthOptimistic Views

• Cornucopians have faith in technological innovations that will produce revolutionary increases in Earth’s carrying capacity.

• DJ Bogue described the theory of demographic regulation (over time, a society naturally limits its population).

China’s one-child policy is an

example of the theory of

demographic regulation

Divergent Ideas About Population Growth Pessimistic Views

• Malthusian (Thomas Malthus) wrote in 1798 about the danger of increasing population. He surmised that population would grow geometrically (1,2,4,8,16…) while food would increase arithmetically (1,2,3,4,5…) – not sustainable at all.

• William Catton introduced the idea of carrying capacity – exceeding the Earth’s carrying capacity leads to environmental damage. Using up non-renewable resources like we have leads to a phantom carrying capacity that, while allowing a higher population, is ultimately unsustainable.

Population Projections