CGW4UChapter 6: Demographic Issues in Developing Countries

The Population Explosion • A country will shift into the post-transition stage as they benefit

from economic and social growth. These social and economic factors include: education, urbanization, health care, role of women, resource availability, and technological advances.

Too Many People: The Demographic Trap • A situation in which a developing country continues to have a

high BR, coupled with declining death rates (stuck in the late transition stage). This problem causes a population increase that threatens the country’s economic and social development.

• Ultimately, the demands of the growing population exceed the carrying capacity of the country – overpopulation arises.

Problems Associated With Overpopulation: Food, Education and Employment

• The most basic problem is providing enough food. Some countries, like India, maintain an adequate supply of food because of the Green Revolution (period in the late 20th Century of developing high-yield wheat and rice crops).

• Low levels of education hinder demographic transition – despite great efforts, more than half of India’s adult population is illiterate.

• Country’s with booming populations have difficulty providing jobs for everyone. Many end up migrating to large cities in search for work, but they don’t have the skills that are necessary for jobs in the city (see feedback loop Fig 6-3 on p.79)

Large, poorly educated head to cities in search of employment

But many segments of advanced industry need skilled workers

Education system is unable to produce enough skilled workers

Growth in industry is hindered

Economic growth suffers

Shortage of wealth to fund education

India’s Approach to the Problem • India’s population is projected to reach 1.5 billion by 2050. In the

1950’s, India’s population control focused on encouraging sterilization and contraceptiontwo shortcomings: 1) they were target-driven (no attention to role of women, education, economic dev’l, and health, factors that reduce fertility; 2) a national, one-size-fits-all approach was adopted (ignoring cultural, religious, economic differences within country)

China’s Approach to Overpopulation • In 1958, the first attempt was the

Great Leap Forward (an agricultural and industrial attempt to accelerate the process of demographic transition), which had disastrous results – food shortages and skyrocketing death rates

• In the late 1960’s, China adopted a one-child policy to address their population problem (p.82-83). Statistically successful but brought other problems: obvious human rights violations, shortage of women, medical concerns, etc.

Kerala’s Demographic Transition• Kerala is poor, its economy is stagnant, yet

demographic transition occurred – how? 1) Education: vast majority are literate, especially women. 2) Status of Women: well educated & empowered. 3) Health care: accessible and inexpensive. 4) Land-reform: policies ensure every farmer owns at least some land. 5) Government: has provided for the needs of citizens. 6) Travel & Employment: many citizens bring money into country by working in the Mid-East oil industry.

• Kerala’s demographic transition happened by diffusion (understanding benefits of smaller family spread through the region), whereas other countries make structural changes (like China’s one-child policy).

The Future of Population Control • In 1994, the United Nations held a conference in Cairo known

as the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD). They realized that trying to control population by dealing with fertility alone is doomed to failure. Population growth will only be controlled through “big picture” economic and social development

• Principles adopted are often controversial; countries’ ‘willingness’ and ‘ability’ to adopt them are huge obstacles.