Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts October 2007

The Deteriorating Labor Market and Economic Well Being of the

Nation’s Teens, Young Adults (20-29 Years Old) and Young

Families: A Renewed Call for National Action

Center for Labor Market StudiesNortheastern UniversityBoston, Massachusetts

October 2007

1) The steep decline in national teen employment prospects since 2000; new historical low, year-round employment rates for teens, especially males, in 2007; the strong path dependence of teen employment

2) The demise of the teen summer job market; who worked in the summer of 2007; record low summer employment rates in the summer 2007; the case for a revitalized summer jobs programs

3) Trends in the real weekly earnings of full-time young workers; the declining relative earnings position of young adults

4) Long-term trends in the real annual earnings of young adult (20-29 year old) men and women by educational attainment; widening gaps in real earnings across young adult

5) Trends in the lifetime earnings of men and women by educational attainment

6) Why We Should Care About Declining Real Annual Earnings Among Young Adult Men Without Four Year Degrees, Changes in the Marriage rates of young adult men Changes in the living arrangements of young

male adults Incarceration rates among young adults by

educational attainment Changes in out-of-wedlock births among

young adult women in the U.S. and the state of New York

7) The changing economic circumstances of young families in the U.S. and consequences for the future economic well-being of their children Trends in the median real incomes of young

families in the U.S. and New York, the very low incomes of families with children

The poverty/near poverty status of young families with own children present in the home

The distribution of income among young families with children in the U.S. and New York

Trends in the Employment to Population Ratios of Teens (16-19) in the U.S.,

Selected Years 1979 to 2007 (Annual Averages in %)

48.5

41.5

47.5

41.0

45.2

39.6

36.4 36.5 36.935.3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1979 1982 1989 1992 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007*

%

Trends in the Employment to Population Ratios of Male Teens (16-19) in the U.S.,

Selected Years 1979 to 2007 (Annual Averages in %)

51.7

42.9

48.7

41.9

45.4

38.935.9 35.1 36.3

34.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1979 1982 1989 1992 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007*

E/P Ratios by Age Group in the U.S., 2000 and 2006 (Annual Averages, in %)

(A) (B) (C) Age Group

2000

2006

Percentage Point Change

(Column B – A) 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

45.2 72.2 81.0 82.0 82.2 80.5 57.8 12.5

36.9 68.5 78.6 79.7 80.9 79.4 61.8 15.0

-8.3 -3.7 -2.4 -2.3 -1.3 -1.5 +4.0 +2.5

“The Great Age Twist in Employment Rates in the U.S.”

Percentage Point Changes in E/P Ratios by

Age Group, U.S., 2000-2006 (Annual Averages)

-8.3

-3.7

-2.4 -2.3

-1.3 -1.5

4.0

2.5

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

The Share of Growth in Employment Attributed to Teens (16-19 Years Old) in the U.S., Selected

Time Periods 1992-2000

(A) (B) (C)

Time Period

Change in

Employment of 16 Year and

Older Workers

Change in

Employment of 16-19 Year

Olds

Teen Share of Job Growth

1992-1996 1996-2000 1992-2000

8,216,000

10,183,000

18,399,000

831,000

689,000

1,520,000

10.1%

6.8%

8.3%

Teen Share of National Employment Growth from the Pre-Recession Peak in 2001-I to May-July 2007 and the Job Recovery Period from May-July

2002 to May-July 2007 (Seasonally Adjusted)

Time Period

(A)

Growth in National

Employment (16+)

(B)

Growth in Teen Employment

(16-19)

(C)

Teen Share of Job Growth

2001 I – May-July 2007 8,340 -1,123 -13.5% May-July 2002 to May-July 2007

9,609 -716 -7.5%

Teen Employment Rates in New York: 2006 Averages (ACS)

Teens in New York have been working at rates well below the U.S. average and far below those for the top performing states in the country.

In New York, only 28 percent of teens were employed in a typical month in 2006. The state ranked last on this measure (20-24 percentage points below the top five performers.

Only 1 of 5 high school students in New York were working in 2006, the state ranked 3rd lowest among the 50 states; less than half the employment rate of top five states.

Only 53 of every 100 teenaged high school graduates had any type of job in New York; 5th lowest among the 50 states; 24 to 32 percentage points below the top five.

Only 36 of every 100 teenaged college students worked in New York during 2006; lowest employment rate in the country; 20 to 26 percentage points below the top four state performers.

Employment Rates of All Teens and High School Students in the Top Five and Bottom Five States

in the U.S., 2006 (in %)

All 16-19 Year Olds

16-19 Year Old H.S. Students

Top Five Top Five

N. Dakota 51.7 N. Dakota 46.2Iowa 49.6 Wyoming 44.2Utah 48.6 Nebraska 42.6Nebraska 48.3 Utah 42.0Wyoming 47.0 Iowa 41.9

Bottom Five Bottom Five

W. Virginia 30.4 Georgia 20.8California 30.3 W. Virginia 20.7Georgia 30.3 New York 19.3Mississippi 28.4 Hawaii 18.4New York 28.0 California 16.6

Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old Non-Enrolled High School Graduates and College

Students in the Top Five and Bottom Five States in the U.S., 2006 (in %)

16-19 Year Old Non-Enrolled

H.S. Graduates

16-19 Year Old College

StudentsTop Five Top Five

Delaware 85.0 Minnesota 62.3N. Hampshire 80.3 Maine 58.3Maine 80.2 Iowa 58.1Idaho 78.7 Wisconsin 57.0Wyoming 76.2 Kansas 54.7

Bottom Five Bottom Five

New York 52.9 Virginia 38.8Texas 52.3 Alabama 38.5New Mexico 51.9 Mississippi 37.7Mississippi 49.2 Montana 37.1S. Carolina 47.3 New York 36.3

2006 Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old High School Students in the U.S. by

Race/Ethnic Group (in %)

14.0

17.618.8

31.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Asian Black Hispanic White, not Hispanic

Group

Perc

ent

2006 Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old High School Students in the U.S. by Family

Income Relative to Poverty Line (in %)

14.7

21.5

27.0

31.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Poor 1-2* poverty 2-3* poverty 3 or More * poverty

Family Income

Perc

ent

Rankings of Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Olds in the 20 Largest Cities in the U.S., Total

and Enrolled in School, ACS 2006Rank Total E/P Ratio Rank Enrolled in school E/P Ratio1 Jacksonville 40.9 1 Jacksonville 35.22 Phoenix 38.7 2 Phoenix 31.73 Austin 36.0 3 Indianapolis 30.54 San Diego 33.7 4 Boston 30.55 Columbus 32.8 5 Austin 29.66 Indianapolis 32.6 6 Columbus 29.07 Boston 30.9 7 San Diego 28.58 San Antonio 30.8 8 San Antonio 26.29 Dallas 27.9 9 Milwaukee 23.510 San Jose 27.0 10 San Jose 23.211 Milwaukee 26.6 11 Baltimore 21.812 Houston 26.5 12 Dallas 21.613 Los Angeles 25.7 13 Los Angeles 21.014 Baltimore 23.7 14 Philadelphia 20.315 Washington, D.C. 23.2 15 Houston 20.116 Chicago 23.1 16 Chicago 19.017 Philadelphia 23.0 17 Memphis 18.818 Memphis 22.8 18 Washington, D.C. 18.019 Detroit 18.6 19 Detroit 16.920 New York 17.9 20 New York 15.3

Rankings of Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old H.S. Graduates and H.S. Dropouts in the 20

Largest U.S. Cities, Total and Enrolled in School, ACS 2006

Rank HS graduates E/P Ratio Rank HS Dropouts E/P Ratio1 San Diego 76.5 1 Dallas 52.12 Columbus 76.2 2 Austin 51.23 Austin 72.5 3 Phoenix 49.94 Indianapolis 71.0 4 Houston 44.95 Jacksonville 70.3 5 Los Angeles 41.96 Washington, D.C. 68.8 6 Jacksonville 39.27 Milwaukee 63.3 7 Columbus 38.58 Phoenix 62.2 8 San Antonio 34.29 San Jose 61.0 9 Chicago 33.510 San Antonio 57.0 10 San Diego 33.311 Los Angeles 52.2 11 San Jose 32.712 Houston 51.7 12 Memphis 32.113 Chicago 45.2 13 New York 28.214 Memphis 44.7 14 Milwaukee 27.915 Boston 44.5 15 Baltimore 25.816 Philadelphia 42.9 16 Indianapolis 25.517 Dallas 42.8 17 Boston 23.018 New York 37.7 18 Philadelphia 19.119 Detroit 34.0 19 Detroit 18.920 Baltimore 33.1 20 Washington, D.C. 12.1

The Counties of New York With the Six Highest and Six Lowest Teen Employment Rates During

2006

49.246.9 46.3

44.5 43.2 42.6

23.8 22.8 22.418.7

16.214.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

%

The Projected Change in the Total and the 16-24 Year Old Population of New York State Between

2005 and 2015

(A)

2005 Estimate

(B)

2015 Projection

(C)

Absolute Change

(D)

Percent Change

Total 19,315,721 19,546,699 230,978 1.2

16-19 1,096,709 960,969 -135,740 -12.4

20-24 1,353,305 1,384,982 31,677 2.3

16-24 2,450,014 2,345,951 -104,063 -4.3

Why We Should Care About Improving Teen Employment Prospects, Especially Among High School

Students? In-school employment, especially work based

employment, provides teens an opportunity to see the relevance of school based learning for labor market performance – they can see the links between school and work

Improves high school graduation rates among economically disadvantaged youth; dropout rates are highest among disadvantaged youth who do not work in high school

Strongly facilitates the transition from high school to the labor market upon graduation for both those graduating youth who do not immediately enroll in college as well as those who do

Reduces pregnancy rates among teenaged girls; those teenaged girls who live in areas with high employment rates are less likely to become pregnant

Reduces male teen involvement in delinquent behavior, especially property type crimes

Summer Employment Rates of the Nation’s Teens from 2000 to 2007 (in %, Seasonally

Adjusted)

45.041.8

39.436.4 36.2 36.7 37.0

34.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2204 2005 2006 2007

Year

Perc

ent

Comparisons of Teen Summer Employment Rates in

2000 and 2007 for Gender and Race-Ethnic Groups(Seasonally Adjusted in %)

Group

(A)

2000

(B)

2007

(C)


(D)

Percent Decline

All 45.1 34.5 -10.6 -24 Men 45.2 33.6 -11.6 -26 Women 44.7 35.4 -9.3 -21 Black 28.9 20.9 -8.0 -28 Hispanic(1) 40.3 31.0 -9.3 -23 White 49.1 38.0 -11.1 -23

Note: Summer employment rates for Hispanic teens are not seasonally adjusted.

2007 Summer Employment Rates of theNation’s Teens 16-19 for Gender and Race-Ethnic

Groups(in %, Seasonally Adjusted)

33.635.4

20.9

27.0

38.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Men Women Black Hispanic White

Gender/Race-Ethnic Group

Perc

ent

(1)

Comparisons of the Employment Rates of 16-22 Year Olds in the U.S. by Single Age Group, June –

July 2000 and June – July 2007 (in Percent, not Seasonally Adjusted)

Age Group

(A)

2000

(B)

2007

(C)


(D)

Percent Decline

16 36.3 24.2 -12.1 -33 17 48.3 37.1 -11.2 -23 18 58.4 49.6 -8.8 -15 19 67.4 60.4 -7.0 -10 20 70.1 66.3 -3.8 -5 21 74.4 68.1 -6.3 -13 22 74.6 69.5 -5.1 -7

Employment/Population Ratios of 16-21 Year Olds by Single Age Group in the June – July

Period of 2007(in %, not Seasonally Adjusted)

24

37

50

60

66 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

16 17 18 19 20 21

Age

Perc

ent

Employment/Population Ratios of Teens in the U.S. by Household Income, Summer

2007 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

30.0

36.2

44.9

48.951.0

46.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Under $20,000 $20,000-$39,999 $40,000-$59,999 $60,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000 andhigher

Summer 2007 Employment Rates of Teens by

Household Income and Selected Race-Ethnic Group

(in %, Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Household Income

(A)

Black, not Hispanic

(B)

Hispanic

(C)

White, not Hispanic

Under 20,000 19.0 29.1 37.6 20,000 – 39,999 24.4 28.9 44.8 40,000 – 59,999 33.2 30.0 53.6 60,000 – 74,999 31.5 37.4 56.0 75,000 – 99,999 28.6 47.2 55.8 100,000+ 28.4 36.2 50.1

Comparisons of Teen Summer Employment Rates in Previous Peak Years and 2007 (Not Seasonally

Adjusted, in %)

58.0 57.0

51.7

39.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1978 1989 2000 2007

Year

Perc

ent

Estimating the Number of Additional Teens That Would Have Been Employed in the Summer of 2007 if

Previous Peak Year Employment Rates Had Been Achieved (in Millions)

Year

(A)

2007 Employment Rate (in %)

(B)

Hypothetical Employment Rate (in %)

(C)

Increase in Teen E/P Ratio

(in Percentage Points)

(D)

Teen Population

(in Millions)

(E)

Gain in Teen Employment in Summer

2007

2000 39.6 51.7 12.1 17.0 2.057 1989 39.6 57.0 17.4 17.0 2.958 1978 39.6 58.0 18.4 17.0 3.128 Men 39.1 64.1 25.0 8.6 2.150 Women 40.1 51.9 11.8 8.4 .992

The Goals, Planning, Funding, and Design of A New Summer Jobs Program

The primary goal would be for local WIB organizations together with private employers, high schools, colleges, and state/local government to provide both employment and learning opportunities for the nation’s teens, including youth from families with incomes below the low income level (200% of poverty line)

The first year goals would be to provide subsidized and unsubsidized jobs for at least one million teens in the summer of 2008; funds could be used to create subsidized jobs in the public and nonprofit sectors, provide wage subsidizes for private sector employers, and expand unsubsidized job opportunities for teens via strengthened connections with employers


(Continued)

The funding for the program must be provided immediately by the U.S. Congress to give local and state organizations sufficient time to plan and design the program

Low income teens are the prime target group, but youth from higher income families can be served by the program with subsidized wages for private employers and unsubsidized jobs

A first year funding level of $2 billion will be set by the Congress and allocated to states based on their share of national jobless youth and youth in low income families


(Continued)

All participants will be expected to participate in learning based activities during the summer. These activities will take place at the worksite in small educational settings in community colleges.

Trends in the Median Real Weekly Earnings of Young Men and Women Employed in Full-Time Wage and Salary Jobs, 1973-2005 (Constant

2005 Dollars) Men Women

1973 563 426 1979 516 406 1989 427 387 1991 409 382 1996 382 353 1998 400 365 2000 427 388 2001 432 391 2003 411 384 2004 414 388 2005 409 381 2006 405 382 Absolute Change 1973-2006 -158 -44 Relative Change 1973-2006 -28% -10%

Median Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Employed 16-24 Year Olds Relative to Adults 25 Years of

Age and Older

52.4

93.7

85.1

62.9

74.0

67.062.4

54.3 54.451.2

53.7 53.4 52.5

62.664.666.470.072.0

75.279.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1967 1973 1979 1982 1991 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006

MenWomen

Trends in Median Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Males in the U.S. By

Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

Educational Attainment

(A)

1979

(B)

1989

(C)

2000

(D)

2006

(E)

Percent Change

1979-2006 High School Dropout $21,252 $17,074 $17,561 $17,000 -20.0 High School Diploma or GED $29,970 $24,391 $23,883 $23,000 -23.3 13-15 Years $30,517 $28,555 $28,098 $25,002 -18.1 Bachelor's Degree $36,237 $39,023 $39,805 $38,000 +4.9 Master's or Higher Degree $40,051 $40,649 $50,341 $44,000 +9.9

Trends in Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Males in New York By Educational

Attainment, 1979-2006


(A)

1979

(B)

1989

(C)

1999

(D)

2006

(E)

Percent Change

1979-2006 High School Dropout $16,293 $15,385 $14,662 $13,095 -19.6 High School Diploma or GED $25,817 $25,922 $21,901 $19,634 -23.9 13-15 Years $28,808 $32,172 $28,875 $26,230 -8.9 Bachelor's Degree $34,644 $43,015 $49,857 $44,131 +27.4 Master's or Higher Degree $40,656 $56,722 $61,252 $55,394 +36.2 All $26,729 $29,145 $28,770 $25,957 -2.9

Percent Change in Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Males in New York by


-19.6

-23.9

-8.9

27.4

36.2

-2.9

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

High SchoolDropout

High SchoolDiploma or

GED

13-15 Years Bachelor'sDegree

Master's orHigher Degree

All

Trends in the Relative Median Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Men in the U.S., by


(A)

1979

(B)

1989

(C)

1999

(D)

2006 H.S. Graduate/ H.S. Dropout 1.41 1.43 1.36 1.35 Bachelor's Degree/H.S. Graduate 1.21 1.60 1.67 1.65 Master's or Higher/H.S. Graduate 1.34 1.67 2.11 1.91

Trends in the Relative Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Men in New York, by


(A)

1979

(B)

1989

(C)

1999

(D)

2006 H.S. Graduate/ H.S. Dropout 1.58 1.68 1.49 1.50 Bachelor's Degree/H.S. Graduate 1.34 1.66 2.28 2.25 Master's or Higher/H.S. Graduate 1.57 2.19 2.80 2.82

Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Males in the U.S. by Level of Educational Attainment,

1979-2005 (in 2005 CPI-U Dollars)


(A)

1979

(B)

1989

(C)

1999

(D)

2005

(E)

Percent Change

1979-2005 High School Dropout $1,268,238 $1,039,425 $981,349 $927,553 -26.9 High School Diploma or GED $1,814,410 $1,573,583 $1,466,334 $1,375,160 -24.2 13-15 Years $2,037,817 $1,894,844 $1,852,312 $1,758,025 -13.7 Bachelor's Degree $2,676,918 $2,784,384 $2,867,991 $2,752,678 2.8 Master's or Higher Degree $3,039,186 $3,642,856 $3,691,070 $3,587,972 18.1 All $1,893,989 $1,903,239 $1,964,747 $1,916,202 1.2

Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Females in the U.S. by Level of Educational

Attainment, 1979-2005 (in 2005 CPI-U Dollars)


(A)

1979

(B)

1989

(C)

1999

(D)

2005

(E)

Percent Change

1979-2005 High School Dropout $367,935 $396,580 $445,820 $384,537 4.5 High School Diploma or GED $596,862 $685,481 $753,779 $723,274 21.2 13-15 Years $738,488 $908,332 $1,034,413 $1,011,887 37.0 Bachelor's Degree $896,894 $1,269,578 $1,446,578 $1,484,895 65.6 Master's or Higher Degree $1,308,839 $1,832,910 $1,911,542 $2,054,768 57.0 All $623,792 $836,915 $1,011,613 $1,042,020 67.0

Percent Change in the Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Adult Males in the U.S. by Their Level of


-26.9-24.2

-13.7

2.8

18.1

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

High SchoolDropout

High SchoolDiploma or GED

13-15 Years Bachelor's Degree Master's or HigherDegree

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Males in the New York by Level of Educational

Attainment, 1979-2006 (in 2006 CPI-U Dollars)


Census 1980

Census 1990

Census 2000

ACS 2006

Percent Change 1980-2006

1-12 Years of HS 1,185,361 1,105,872 946,114 816,509 -31.1 HS Graduate 1,764,926 1,714,295 1,490,159 1,357,296 -23.1 1-3 Years of College 2,077,165 2,148,523 1,934,659 1,794,689 -13.6 Bachelor's Degree 2,708,829 3,137,471 3,154,880 2,989,278 10.4 Masters or Higher Degree 3,136,671 3,846,576 4,216,323 4,275,396 36.3 Total 1,914,729 2,157,295 2,137,331 2,093,188 9.3

Percent Change in the Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Adult Males in New York by Their Level

of Educational Attainment, 1979-2006

-31.1

-23.1

-13.6

10.4 9.3

36.3

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

1-12 Years ofHS

HS Graduate 1-3 Years ofCollege

Bachelor'sDegree

Masters orHigher Degree

Total

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Marriage Rates of 22-30 Year Old Men By Level of Annual Earnings, U.S., 2006

30

12

23

30

4244

51

16

7

13

19

2528

39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

All Less than$10K

$10K-$20K $20K-$30K $30K-$40K $40K-$50K $60K andhigher

AllBlack

Percent of 20-29 Year Old Males Who Were Married and Living With Their Spouses by

Educational Attainment, March 1974- March 2007, U.S.

Mar.

74 Mar.

80 Mar.

88 Mar.

00 Mar.

07

Percentage Point

Change, Mar. 74- Mar. 07

<12 or 12, No HS Diploma 58.8 47.4 37.5 26.7 24.0 -34.8 HS Diploma/GED 60.4 47.6 37.8 27.5 24.6 -35.8 Some College 52.0 42.7 34.3 22.3 18.2 -33.8 Bachelor's Degree or Higher 60.9 48.4 38.4 30.3 28.9 -32.0

Percent of 20-29 Year Old Males Who Were Living With Parents or Other Relatives by Race-Ethnic Group and

Educational Attainment, U.S., March 1974- March 2007

Mar.

74 Mar.

80 Mar.

88 Mar.

00 Mar.

07

Percentage Point

Change, Mar. 74- Mar. 07

<12 or 12, No HS Diploma

30.1

36.9

41.7

41.5

43.8

+13.7

HS Diploma/GED 28.0 33.7 39.5 41.1 42.6 +14.6 Some College 28.6 28.6 36.5 45.9 47.4 +18.8 Bachelor's Degree or Higher 16.4 16.9 22.7 20.8 21.9 +5.5

Institutionalization Rates of 18-34 Year Olds, All and By Level of Educational

Attainment, U.S., 2006

5.0

2.0

0.6

0.1 0.0

1.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

High SchoolDropout


GED



All

%

Institutionalization Rates of 18-34 Year Old Males By Level of Educational

Attainment, U.S., 20067.6

3.2

1.1

0.2 0.10.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

High SchoolDropout



%

The Adverse Consequences to Children of Growing Up in A Young Single Parent Family

Children in such families face serious cognitive problems; their academic achievement scores are well below average, especially when the mother has weak academic skills

They are more likely to experience both physical and mental health problems

Children are more likely to be held back in high school, fall two or more years behind modal grade, fail to graduate from high school

Children in single parent families are less likely to work in high school, especially when their mother or father is not working

Female children in these single parent families are more likely to become mother as teenagers

Male children in these families are more likely to become involved with the criminal justice system, to be arrested, and to be sentenced to a juvenile detention facility

Number and Percent of Births to Women Under 30 that were Out-of-Wedlock by

Educational Attainment of the Mother, U.S.: 2004


(A)

Total Births

(B)

Out-of-Wedlock Births

(C)

Percent Out- of-Wedlock

<12 or 12, not diploma 563,288 350,847 62.2 12 years, diploma or GED 743,151 381,060 51.3 13-15 Years 666,328 242,920 36.7 Bachelor’s degree 268,238 33,669 12.6 Master’s or higher degree 62,313 2,691 4.3 All 2,298,318 1,011,007 44.0

Percent of Births to Women Under 30 That Were Out-of-Wedlock by Educational Attainment of

the Mother, U.S.: 2004

62.2

51.3

36.7

12.6

4.3

44.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

High SchoolDropout

High SchoolGraduate or

GED



All

Trends in the Share of Births to U.S. Women Under 30 that were Out-of-Wedlock, Selected

Years, 1960 to 2003 (in %)

6.2

12.1

20.5

36.3

44.0

49.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 1970 1980 1991 2000 2003Year

Perc

ent

Percent Change in the Median Real Incomes of U.S. Families by Age of Family Householders and Presence of Children in the Home, 1973-2003 (in Constant 2003

Dollars)

12

-15

-26

913

22

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

All Families,Head Under 65

Head under 30 Head under 30,with one or more

own children

Head under 30,no children

Head 30-64 Head 30-64, nochildren

Perc

ent

Median Income of Young Families (Under 30) With Children by Educational Attainment of the

Family Head and by Family Type, U.S., 2006


Single Parent, Male

Single Parent, Female

Married Couple Total

HS Dropout 18,993 7,820 30,368 17,469 HS Graduate 25,391 13,203 40,728 25,391 1-3 Years of College 28,134 17,266 49,463 32,704 Bachelor's Degree 39,611 30,470 67,034 58,909 Masters or Higher Degree 60,940 39,306 76,378 71,097 Total 24,884 13,711 45,705 29,048

Median Income of Young Families (Under 30) by Educational Attainment, U.S., 2006

$17,469

$25,391

$32,704

$58,909

$71,097

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

High SchoolDropout



Trends in the Distribution of Income Among Young Primary Families (Head Under 30) in the

U.S., Selected Years, 1967 to 2004 (in %)

(A)

1967

(B)

1973

(C)

1986

(D)

1989

(E)

2000

(F)

2004

(G)

Change 1967-2004

Bottom quintile 6.7 6.1 3.9 3.5 3.8 3.4 -3.3 Second lowest

quintile 14.4 13.5 10.9 11.0 10.3 10.3 -4.1

Middle 19.3 19.0 17.8 17.9 16.9 16.9 -2.4 Second highest

quintile 24.4 24.6 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.5 +.1

Top quintile 35.2 36.8 41.8 42.2 43.8 45.0 +9.8

Mean Pre-Tax Income of Young Families in New York

(Householder Under 30) by Selected Decile of the Income Distribution, 2006

$2,509$9,862

$32,629

$88,152

$159,162

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

Lowest Second Lowest Fifth Second Highest Highest

Decile

Changes in Median Family Income in the U.S., NY, and New York City, 1990-2006 (in 2006

Dollars)

1990 2000 2006



US 54,333 58,590 58,526 +7.8% +7.7% New York 63,327 62,511 62,138 -1.3% -1.9% New York City 54,753 50,655 51,830 -7.5% -5.3%

Percent of Young Families that were Poor or Near Poor in 2006, by Type of Family, U.S.

28.0

9.3

36.1

59.6

74.6

34.7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

All YoungFamilies

Young Familieswith No children

Young Familieswith Children

Single Mother Single Motherwith No Diploma

Single FatherFamily

Percent of Young Families that were Poor or Near Poor in 2006, by Type of Family, New York

30.1

9.3

41.9

58.3

74.6

34.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

All YoungFamilies

Young Familieswith No children

Young Familieswith Children

Single Mother Single Motherwith No Diploma

Single FatherFamily

Mean Annual Payroll and Federal/State Income Taxes Paid by Non-Enrolled

16-64 Year Old Adults in Massachusetts by Educational Attainment, 2002-2004 Averages

$2,498

$5,456

$7,838

$14,769

$20,753

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

<12 12 13-15 B.A. Degree M.A. or Higher


$

Mean Annual Value of Cash and In-Kind Transfers Received by Non-Enrolled

16-64 Year Old Adults in Massachusetts by Educational Attainment, 2002-2004 Averages

$7,798

$3,332

$2,389

$1,150$854

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000



$

Mean Taxes Paid- Transfers Received by Non-Enrolled 16-64 Year Old Adults in Massachusetts by

Educational Attainment, 2002-2004 Averages

($5,300)

$2,125

$5,449

$13,620

$19,889

($10,000)

($5,000)

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000



$

Lifetime Mean Taxes Paid - Transfers Received Plus Institutionalization Costs of 16-64 Year Old

Adults in Massachusetts by Educational Attainment

-$273,860

$181,494

$825,571

-$400,000

-$200,000

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

<12 High School Diploma Bachelor's Degree

$

What Can Be Done?

1. We need to raise the political visibility of these problems at the local, state, and national levels With the media With our local political and business

leaders With the state legislatures and governors With our national leaders

2. We need a number of immediate political actions Year-round job creation program for teens Revitalized summer jobs program Renew and expand the QUOP program to

boost the basic skills and educational attainment for disadvantaged youth

Provide NLCB monies for dropout prevention programs

Provide CBO’s, alternative schools, community colleges, monies to bring dropouts back to school (jobs / education)

Massive expansion of youth apprenticeship opportunities

Expand the existing EITC credits for young single adults; allow both husbands and wives in young families to be eligible for EITC credits based on own incomes

Enforce child support laws; mandatory work for fathers not providing such support

Expanded education and training for young ex-offenders

“Human progress does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability. It is the result of the hard work of men working together with God recognizing that time is always on the side of social stagnation. We must use time creatively, with the knowledge that the time is always ripe to do right”.

Questions

Percent of Births in the U.S. that were Out-of-Wedlock by Age of the Mother, 2004

80

54

26

1512

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+Age Group

Perc

ent

Percent of Young Families (Under 30) With Kids Under 18 Present At Home Who Were Poor/Near

Poor, U.S., 2006

Married Couple Family

Male Householder,

No Wife Present

Female Householder, No Husband

Present Total <12 or 12, No HS Diploma 41.8 49.9 74.6 57.2 HS Diploma/GED 22.1 31.8 62.9 39.6 Some College 12.4 26.1 52.5 29.5 Bachelor's Degree 5.3 11.4 23.4 9.0 Master's or Higher Degree 4.7 13.4 19.8 7.3 Total 19.1 34.7 59.6 36.1

Changes in Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 20-29 Year Old Males in New York by


$16

$26$29

$35

$41

$27

$13

$20

$26

$44

$55

$26

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

High SchoolDropout


GED


Master's orHigherDegree

All

in $

1,00

0s

19792006

2006 Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old High School Students in the Top Five and

Bottom Five States (in %) 46

44 43 42 42

21 2119 18 17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

North D

akota

Wyoming

Nebras

kaUtah Iow

a

Georgi

a

West V

irgini

a

New York

Hawaii

Califor

nia

State

Perc

ent

Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Olds By County in New York City, ACS 2006

16.2

14.1

18.7

22.423.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bronx Kings New York Queens Richmond

%

Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Olds Enrolled in School By Selected Counties in New York, ACS

2006

40 40

3735

33 32 3229

2321

1917

1412

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Employment Rates of 16-19 Year Old High School Dropouts By County in New York City, ACS 2006

15.8

26.8

35.2

38.8 38.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Bronx Kings New York Queens Richmond

Estimated Independent Impacts of Alternative Hours of Paid Work in the Prior Year on the

Probability of Teens Being Employed at the Time of the 2006 ACS Surveys (in Percentage Points)

Group of Teens

(A)

200 Hours

(B)

500 Hours

(C)

1000 Hours

(D)

1500 Hours

All teens 19.2 41.5 70.0 85.5 High school students 24.4 55.0 90.0 98.0 College students 15.6 36.0 62.0 78.0 High school graduates not enrolled

18.1 30.2 52.0 65.5

High school dropouts 14.2 33.0 58.0 75.0

Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts October 2007

Documents

Transcript of Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts October 2007