Center for Information and Communication Technologies Techno-Economics of Residential Broadband...

Center for Information and Communication Technologies

Techno-Economics of Residential Broadband

Copenhagen, June 20, 2006Copenhagen, June 20, 2006

Halldor Matthias Sigurdsson ([email protected])



Motivation

Objectives

Economic Evaluation

– Feasibility, strategy,

Market Dynamics

– Competition, policy effect

Broadband development and ubiquity

Network and service convergence

Infrastructure development

– Existing operators upgrading their infrastructure

– New entrants building new and competing infrastructure

Target Group

Operators

Vendors

Policy & Regulation

Interest Groups



Techno-Economics

Techno-Economics within CICT

Participation in Research Projects

– Construction of techno-economic models

Ph.D. project

– Development of methodology

Theory / Methodology developed in European research projects

Financial evaluation of financial viability

– Output NPV, IRR

Scenario Based

– Sensitivity analysis

– Comparison of technologies / scenarios

One of several available methods

– Economic models, econometric models, Cost-Proxy Models, System Dynamics Models



Implementation

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AG

GSGS GS

GS GS

GSGS GS

LELE

AGAG AG

AG AG

AGAG AG

LELE

Access Technologies:– ADSL– ADSL2+– HFC Cable modem – FTTH – WiMax

Service Profiles:– S1: Slow Internet Browsing– S2: Fast Internet Browsing– S3: Multimedia– S4: Interactive Multimedia

Socio-economic zones:– Urban– Suburban– Rural

Infrastructure Scenarios:– Greenfield– Existing Infrastructure Upgrade

– Model Design• Implemented as Excel 2003 Spreadsheet• Programming Code in Visual Basic for Applications

(VBA)• Graphical User Interface in VBA• Model runs as macro in Excel



Development

Techno-economic models are static

Combine dynamics from economic models

Incorporate effects of infrastructure competition

Effect of policy and regulation

Calculate cost of Universal Service

User

User Interface

Program

Algorithms for Optimisation

CORE

Microsoft Excel

VBA ENGINE

Subroutines for constructing reports

Component / Cost Database

OPEX calculations

Spreadsheet

Resource allocation

Spreadsheet

CAPEX calculations

Spreadsheet Spreadsheet

Database / Spreadsheets



Empirical Approach

Case Studies– Denmark– Iceland

Supported by– Europe– US– Asia

Research Goal– Investigate development and use of techno-economic models

as a tool for understanding market trends and dynamics

Explain two major trends– FTTH projects by Electronic Utility Companies– Broadband scarcity in rural areas



Questions ?

For questions or commentsPlease feel free to contact

[email protected]



Techno-Economic Project

ECOSYS– Techno-economics of integrated communication systems and services– Part of the Celtic Program– Period 2004-2007– http://www.celtic-initiative.org/Projects/ECOSYS/default.asp

TONIC– TONIC is a project that concentrates on techno-economic evaluation of

new communication networks and services – Part of the IST Program– Period 2000-2003– http://www-nrc.nokia.com/tonic/

TETRA– Support consolidation, condensing and rationalising of deployment

guidelines for introduction of advanced communication services and networks

– Part of the ACTS Program– Period 1994-2000– http://www.telenor.no/fou/prosjekter/tera/

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