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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Nov 17, 2015

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

* adjusted for market value of quoted equity sitting in the books

Atul Ltd

No. of shares (m) 29.7

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 4850/733

Current price (Rs/$) 1635/24.7

Price target (Rs/$)

1988/30.0

52 week H/L (Rs.) 1811/1035

Book Value* (Rs/$) 392/5.9

P/BV (16e/17e)

2.9/2.5

P/E (16e/17e) 16.8/14.8

EPS growth (FY15/16e/17e) 13.8/27.5/13.4

ROE (FY15/16e/17e) 24.1/24.7/22.7

Beta 0.9

Daily volume (avg. monthly) 39837

BSE Code 500027

NSE Code ATUL

Bloomberg ATLP IN

Reuters ATLP.BO

Shareholding pattern % Promoters 50.8

MFs / Banks / FIs 13.6

Foreign 7.6

Non-Promoter Corp. 4.1

Public & others 23.9

Total 100.0

As on Sep 30, 2015

Recommendation BUY

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

Consolidated figures (Rs crs)

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Income from operations 2042.88 2457.75 2656.39 2736.56 3127.90 Other Income 16.62 36.27 10.25 9.45 16.43

EBITDA (other income included) 271.11 400.00 411.54 500.08 555.83

Net Profit after MI & EO item 115.52 198.95 226.44 288.72 327.51

EPS (Rs) 38.95 67.08 76.35 97.34 110.42

EPS growth (%) 27.0 72.2 13.8 27.5 13.4

Company Brief Atul Ltd manufactures value added chemicals by blending basic chemicals

and natural resources for diverse industries -agriculture, construction,

textiles, pharmaceuticals and automobiles - from its plants in Valsad,

Bharuch (Gujarat) and Thane (Maharashtra).

Quarterly Highlights

� Led by stupendous growth in its life science chemicals, Atul reported

just 2.9% fall in net sales in Q2FY16 (-9.4% in Q1FY16) compared to a

year ago period. After reporting declining revenues for last four

quarters (y-o-y). Atul's life science chemicals business bucked the trend

by posting 20.3% rise in sales - buoyancy in crop protection business

explains much of the rise. Revenue of its performance & other

chemicals business slid (-11.7% y-o-y) for the second consecutive

quarter.

� OPM's inched up 470 bps to 19.3%, the highest level in at least ten

quarters, driven by startling expansion in margins of life science

chemicals business i.e. 24.2% vs 16.6% in Q2FY15; margins were up 430

bps q-o-q too. As a result, its EBIT jumped three-fourths to Rs 52.02 crs

from Rs 29.71 crs in the same period a year ago. Trampled by softening

crude oil prices, performance & other chemicals business continues to

reel for its profits slid 3.7% last quarter and 1.9% in the first half.

However, its margins have risen for last four quarters - 130 bps at the

last count.

� Helped by healthy off take of crop protection and polymers business,

EBITDA (adjusted) rose by 32.1% and net profit by 38.5% to Rs 81.79

crs from Rs 59.07 crs in the same quarter last year. Net profits in the

first half of the current fiscal are up just 19.3%.

� The stock currently trades at 16.8x FY16e EPS of Rs 97.34 and 14.8x

FY17e EPS of Rs 110.42. Better than expected outcome of the life

science chemicals business forced us to revise upwards our earnings

estimates (FY16 up by 14.2% ; FY17 10.5%) , implying average annual

growth of 20.2%.Yet there is little evidence that buoyancy in Atul's life

science chemicals business would be sustained (a low probability

occurrence). We retain our buy rating on the stock with target of Rs

1988 ($30; previous target: Rs 1600) based on 18x FY17e earnings (peg

ratio: 0.9 vs 1.1 earlier) over a period of 9-12 months.

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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd


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Outlook & Recommendation

US gaining strength

According to Year End 2014 Chemical Industry Situation and Outlook published by The American Chemistry Council (ACC),

global chemistry production volumes would grow by 3.6% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016 driven by robust growth in developing nations

of Asia-Pacific and Africa & the Middle East. US too would grow at a fast clip not least due to dollar appreciation coupled with

increased supply of unconventional oil and gas putting downward pressure on oil prices.

However, as per ACC's Mid-year 2015Chemical Industry Situation and Outlook, US chemistry volumes would grow at 3.2% in

2015 and 3% in 2016 - slightly down from ACC's 2014 estimates of 3.7% and 3.9% respectively. Excluding pharmaceuticals,

production growth would be 4.1% and 3.4% respectively. It reckons that "continued recovery in end-use markets, sustained

competitiveness and the eventual return of global economic growth will lift demand for American chemistry over the next several

years". With the development of shale gas and the surge in natural gas liquids supply, US has moved from being a high-cost

producer of key petrochemicals and resins to among the lowest-cost producers globally.

According to Cefic Chemicals Trends Report, published by the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic), European chemical

output grew just 0.2 per cent during the first half of 2015 compared to the same period of 2014. Chemical makers in European

Union remain affected by lower prices and sluggish demand. Chemical prices, which fell 1.8% in the European Union, last year,

remain under pressure. It now expects European chemical output to rise 1% this year after a measly 0.3% rise in 2014 buffeted by

high energy costs and weak R&D investments. European chemical output would remain battered for some more time due to

slowdown in China, where the economy remains affected by tepid property market and weak infrastructure investment growth.

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New initiatives

If its unveiled plans are any indication, then Atul is brimming with volumes -boosting ideas ranging from introduction of new

products and formulations to adding new capacities to entering new business segments. With rising competition in India and

abroad, its crop protection business is planning to strengthen its reach overseas, particularly in Africa and South America. To

recall, overall volumes of this business plunged 20% last fiscal buffeted by massive fall (37.3%) in overseas dispatches (value

wise). Other initiatives include unveiling new products coming off-patent, entering plant growth regulators & seeds business

and increasing CRAMS related business.

For pharmaceutical business, Atul not only plans to form strategic alliances but also grow via acquisitions. Apart from

growing in Japan and select countries in Europe, it aspires to enter new markets in Russia, Iran and Korea. It also aims to

increase its CRAMS business with strategic customers.

To alienate its performance & other chemicals business from vagaries of commodity prices, it plans to introduce high margin

polymers and boost sales of high performance pigments and digital printing inks. Also on avil are plans to introduce new

dyes and pigments for non-textile applications and aromatic products in personal care and flavors & fragrance industries.

Gaining market share in select epoxy hardeners and Vat, sulphur and reactive dyes is no less important.

Capex

Atul expects to add a fifth to its current sales count of nearly 2650 crs by commissioning projects worth Rs 321 crs over the

next couple of years - expected to generate sales of nearly Rs 550 crs. Handful of projects completed last fiscal would also add

nearly Rs 150 crs to the sales tally. Few of the projects in colors business which were commissioned last fiscal include the

solvent recovery plant, formulation facility for digital inks and pilot plant for HPPs. Others include the multi-purpose plant

for bulk actives (colors) intermediate expansion project (colors) and BLR expansion project (polymers). Most striking, Atul's

Dapsone API plant got the US FDA approval last fiscal. For the current fiscal the pipeline of projects nearing completion is no

small. It targets to finish expansion of API and intermediates, epoxy resins and formulations (polymers), epoxy hardeners and

intermediates (polymers) and reactive diluents. Also afoot are plans to commence the herbicide formulations capacity (crop

protection) and intermediate capacity for colors.

Risks

Atul's businesses suffer from a plethora of insurmountable risks. It ranges from fluctuations in crude oil prices to variations in

foreign exchange rates to shortage of key raw materials to growing external competition. While most of its businesses are

affected by relentless fall in crude oil prices, some like aromatics and polymers are more trampled. Margins may squeeze for

epoxy resins and hardeners not least due to cheaper imports. Atul reckons that piercing fluctuations in foreign exchange rates

could impact most of its businesses. Its crop protection business faces headwinds from rising usage of GM crops and

increasing presence of international generic companies in India, while its color business has been suffering from falling

demand for niche Vat dyes. Its puny portfolio of HPP has failed to provide the much needed shield to its colors business.

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% change in overall EBIT (allocable) % change in overall EBIT (allocable)

Financials & valuation

Atul's revenues would barely grow by 3% (7.8% cut from the previous estimate) not least due to incessant fall in crude oil

prices. Due to stress in crude oil markets, revenue of its performance & other chemicals slid 11.2% in the first half of current

fiscal. Worse still EBIT decreased by some 2%, belying hopes of margin expansion making up for most of the loss in profits

due to lower sales realizations. Its life science chemicals business has recovered some lost ground mainly due to sturdy

dispatches of crop protection business last quarter.

Sparked by higher capacities and foray in new regions, Atul's pharmaceuticals business would grow in low teens over the

next two years. Volumes of performance and other chemicals business sub-segments - aromatics, colors, polymers and bulk

chemicals - would grow by 5-12%. Fall in product realizations have taken sheen off from its aromatics business - volumes

grew by breathtaking 16% last fiscal. Despite India and China emerging as key suppliers of p-Cresol globally, its aromatics

business would barely grow (in value terms) over the next two years. Polymers business though could show some

resilience.

Margins though have risen: performance & other chemicals up 352 bps; life science chemicals up 144 bps in the first half of

current fiscal. We reckon that if crude oil prices recover somewhat next fiscal (a high probability event) margins could

come off a bit. However, overall margins could also get a lift from Atul's allegiance to launch high margin products,

particularly in polymers and colors businesses and debottlenecking capacities - did that for two and a half dozen products

last fiscal.

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Free cash flows would increase not least because of large operating cash flows. So would the return on capital ratios. All

rests on Atul's effiency in managing working capital and modest recovery in crude oil prices. Risks related to vagaries of

monsoons, sharp fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and threat of cheaper imports could beset estimates and sour

business plans.

The stock currently trades at 16.8x FY16e EPS of Rs 97.34 and 14.8x FY17e EPS of Rs 110.42. Better than expected outcome of

the life science chemicals business goaded us to scale up our earnings estimates (FY16 up by 14.2%; FY17's 10.5%), implying

average annual growth of 20.2%. Yet there is little evidence that buoyancy in Atul's life science chemicals business would be

sustained (a low probability occurrence); that is why we have assumed lower EBIT margins for next fiscal. Yet current

valuation favours defensive investors. We therefore retain a buy rating on the stock with target of Rs 1988 ($30; previous

target: Rs 1600) based on 18x FY17e earnings (peg ratio: 0.9 vs. 1.1 earlier) over a period of 9-12 months. (For more

information, please refer to our report dated May 26, 2105).

Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP Mcap* Sales* Profit* OPM NPM

Int.

coverage ROE

Mcap

/ sales P/BV P/E

Aarti Inds. 42 506 4220 2709 214 17.9 7.9 3.3 22.7 1.6 4.2 19.7

Atul Ltd 30 1635 4850 2478 240 16.1 9.7 15.8 22.8 2.0 4.2 20.2

BASF India 43 901 3901 4518 -233 0.7 -5.2 -1.1 - 0.9 3.3 -

Sudarshan Chem 14 109 758 1136 51 11.4 4.5 3.5 15.8 0.7 2.4 14.8

TTM P/E; * Figures in Rs crs; Companies in the exhibit not exactly comparable as their product portfolios are dissimilar.

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Financials

Standalone Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crs

Q2FY16 Q2FY15 % chg. H1FY16 H1FY15 % chg.

Income from operations 644.95 662.41 -2.6 1232.31 1309.49 -5.9

Other Income 17.48 8.56 104.2 25.70 10.08 155.0

Total Income 662.43 670.97 -1.3 1258.01 1319.57 -4.7

Total Expenditure 520.36 565.44 -8.0 1009.29 1108.69 -9.0

PBIDT (other income included) 142.07 105.53 34.6 248.72 210.88 17.9

Interest 6.31 5.73 10.1 11.58 11.90 -2.7

Depreciation 14.79 13.67 8.2 28.89 27.23 6.1

PBT 120.97 86.13 40.5 208.25 171.75 21.3

Tax 36.51 27.06 34.9 63.74 52.90 20.5

PAT 84.46 59.07 43.0 144.51 118.85 21.6

Extraordinary Item 2.67 0.00 - 2.67 0.00 -

Adjusted Net Profit 81.79 59.07 38.5 141.84 118.85 19.3

EPS (F.V. 10) 27.58 19.92 38.5 47.82 40.07 19.3

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs

Q2FY16 Q2FY15 % chg. H1FY16 H1FY15 % chg.

Segment Revenue

Life Science Chemicals 215.35 179.03 20.3 383.65 356.32 7.7

Performance & Other Chemicals 458.65 519.88 -11.8 903.21 1016.78 -11.2

Sub Total 674.00 698.91 -3.6 1286.86 1373.10 -6.3

Inter - Segment Revenue 41.63 47.67 -12.7 78.29 85.67 -8.6

Net Segment Revenue 632.37 651.24 -2.9 1208.57 1287.43 -6.1

Segment EBIT

Life Science Chemicals 52.02 29.71 75.1 85.51 66.89 27.8

Performance & Other Chemicals 62.52 64.91 -3.7 123.02 125.43 -1.9

Sub Total 114.54 94.62 21.1 208.53 192.32 8.4

Interest 6.31 5.73 10.1 11.58 11.90 -2.7 Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) -12.74 2.76 -561.6 -11.30 8.67 -230.3

PBT 120.97 86.13 40.5 208.25 171.75 21.3

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Consolidated Income Statement Figures in Rs crs


Income from operations 2042.88 2457.75 2656.39 2736.56 3127.90

Growth (%) 14.0 20.3 8.1 3.0 14.3

Other Income 16.62 36.27 10.25 9.45 16.43

Total Income 2059.50 2494.02 2666.64 2746.01 3144.34

Total Expenditure 1788.39 2094.02 2255.10 2245.93 2588.50

EBITDA (other income included) 271.11 400.00 411.54 500.08 555.83

Interest 33.37 33.44 25.69 17.62 9.51

EBDT 237.74 366.56 385.85 482.46 546.32

Depreciation 51.37 58.26 60.27 67.97 76.10

Tax 58.30 88.09 99.37 126.00 142.95

Net profit 128.07 220.21 226.21 288.48 327.28

Minority interest 0.07 -0.26 -0.17 -0.18 -0.18

Profit/loss of associate -8.23 -1.28 14.27 0.06 0.06

Net profit after MI 119.77 219.19 240.65 288.72 327.51

Extraordinary item 4.25 20.24 14.21 - -

Adjusted Net Profit 115.52 198.95 226.44 288.72 327.51

EPS (Rs.) 38.95 67.08 76.35 97.34 110.42

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs


Segment Revenue

Life Science Chemicals 707.33 759.44 700.21 799.21 881.32

Performance & Other Chemicals 1297.69 1636.80 1905.96 1878.45 2179.48

Others 0.00 2.10 4.77 5.25 5.77

Net sales 2005.02 2398.34 2610.94 2682.90 3066.57

Segment EBIT

Life Science Chemicals 138.25 153.57 123.86 179.82 185.08

Performance & Other Chemicals 87.15 184.34 254.99 276.13 316.02

Others 0.00 -1.22 -1.14 -1.10 -1.00

Sub Total 225.40 336.69 377.71 454.85 500.10

Interest 33.37 33.44 25.69 17.62 9.51

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 5.66 -5.05 26.44 22.75 20.37

PBT 186.37 308.30 325.58 414.49 470.23

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Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 29.68 29.68 29.68 29.68 29.68

Reserves 724.56 918.94 1009.31 1265.90 1559.50

Total Shareholders Funds 754.24 948.62 1038.99 1295.58 1589.18

Minority Interest 5.84 5.92 5.68 5.50 5.33

Long term debt 164.36 119.49 58.57 26.34 5.78

Total Liabilities 924.44 1074.03 1103.24 1327.42 1600.28

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 1190.31 1295.19 1295.78 1506.81 1692.11

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 663.15 703.89 761.09 829.06 905.16

Impairment 21.03 21.03 21.03 21.03 21.03

Net Block 506.13 570.27 513.66 656.72 765.92

Capital Work in Progress 65.93 59.08 112.05 65.00 55.00

Investments 66.71 62.82 66.05 86.11 221.17

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 366.48 434.17 415.27 419.42 444.59

Sundry Debtors 351.68 437.08 442.42 464.54 501.70

Cash and Bank 14.86 21.05 36.73 35.09 26.26

Other Assets 119.34 140.31 143.84 137.31 139.96

Total CA & LA 852.36 1032.61 1038.26 1056.37 1112.52

Current liabilities 570.79 638.91 594.71 481.16 479.08

Provisions 36.24 33.66 43.56 39.69 41.47

Total Current Liabilities 607.03 672.57 638.27 520.85 520.55

Net Current Assets 245.33 360.04 399.99 535.52 591.97

Net Deferred Tax -27.28 -37.09 -46.09 -58.77 -75.95

Other Assets (Net of liabilities) 67.62 58.91 57.58 42.84 42.18

Total Assets 924.44 1074.03 1103.24 1327.42 1600.28

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Cash Flow Statement Figures in Rs crs


Net Income (a) 128.07 220.21 226.21 288.48 327.28

Non cash exp. & others (b) 60.49 50.11 55.11 73.93 79.98

Depreciation 51.37 58.26 60.27 67.97 76.10

Investment income -3.70 -24.52 -2.59 -3.98 -10.18

Others 12.82 16.37 -2.57 9.94 14.06

(Increase) / decrease in NWC (c) -35.19 -151.91 2.29 -7.01 -20.87

Inventory -33.33 -67.69 18.90 -4.15 -25.17

Debtors 2.60 -91.92 -3.37 -22.12 -37.16

Payables 27.75 36.40 -51.18 13.61 28.58

Other assets (net) -32.21 -28.70 37.94 5.65 12.88

Operating cash flow (a+b+c) 153.37 118.41 283.61 355.40 386.39

Capex (net of sale) -103.86 -113.82 -176.11 -162.95 -175.00

Investment income 3.70 24.52 2.59 3.98 10.18

Others -15.58 6.24 4.96 -6.99 -135.25

Investing cash flow (d) -115.74 -83.06 -168.56 -165.96 -300.07

Net borrowings -28.73 -6.94 -73.38 -160.26 -63.26

Dividends paid -15.46 -20.67 -25.95 -30.82 -32.13

Others 0.14 0.43 0.09 0.00 0.00

Financing cash flow (e) -44.05 -27.18 -99.24 -191.08 -95.39

Net change (a+b+c+d+e) -6.42 8.17 15.81 -1.64 -9.07

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Key Financial Ratios


Growth Ratios

Revenue (%) 14.0 20.3 8.1 3.0 14.3

EBIDTA (%) 22.0 43.3 8.0 21.9 11.1

Net Profit (%) 27.0 72.2 13.8 27.5 13.4

EPS (%) 27.0 72.2 13.8 27.5 13.4

Margins

Operating Profit Margin (%) 12.2 14.8 15.1 17.9 17.2

Gross Profit Margin (%) 11.3 14.1 14.5 17.6 17.5

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.1 8.1 8.5 10.5 10.5

Return

ROCE (%) 15.0 20.6 19.0 21.6 21.5

RONW (%) 19.5 26.8 24.1 24.7 22.7

Valuations

Market Cap / Sales 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.6

EV/EBIDTA 4.0 3.7 7.9 9.4 8.5

P/E 7.8 6.5 14.8 16.8 14.8

P/BV 1.1 1.3 2.5 2.9 2.5

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 6.4 9.6 13.6 24.5 50.4

Debt-Equity Ratio 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0

Current Ratio 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.4

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.7 4.4

Total Asset Turnover 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1

Debtors Turnover 5.8 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5

Inventory Turnover 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.0

Creditors Turnover 6.4 6.8 7.6 8.1 8.6

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 63.5 58.6 60.4 60.5 56.4

Inventory Days 71.4 69.8 68.7 67.8 60.9

Creditor Days 57.2 53.7 48.3 45.3 42.3

Cash Conversion Cycle 77.7 74.6 80.8 83.0 75.0

Cash Flows (Rs crs)

Operating Cash Flow 153.4 118.4 283.6 355.4 386.4

FCFF 74.0 57.1 143.6 208.8 228.0

FCFE 21.9 26.7 52.2 36.2 158.1

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated

million $ FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Equity capital 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5

Shareholders funds 138.7 157.8 166.0 195.8 240.2

Total debt 67.3 61.1 47.7 21.1 11.6

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 105.2 104.7 100.0 109.1 124.1

Investments 12.3 10.5 10.6 13.0 33.4

Net current assets 45.1 59.9 63.9 80.9 89.5

Total assets 170.0 178.7 176.3 200.6 241.8

Revenues 375.2 406.3 434.4 413.6 472.7

EBITDA 49.8 66.1 67.3 75.6 84.0

EBDT 43.7 60.6 63.1 72.9 82.6

PBT 34.2 51.0 53.2 62.6 71.1

PAT 21.2 32.9 37.0 43.6 49.5

EPS($) 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7

Book value ($) 4.9 5.7 7.3 8.4 9.9

Operating cash flow 28.2 19.7 45.3 53.7 58.4

Investing cash flow -21.3 -13.8 -26.9 -25.1 -45.3

Financing cash flow -8.1 -4.5 -15.9 -28.9 -14.4

*income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rates

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Disclosure& Disclaimer CD Equisearch Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as ‘CD Equi’) is a Member registered with National Stock Exchange of India Limited,

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Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such

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