CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly...

22
CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE CBRE PBSA INDEX 2020 December 2020

Transcript of CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly...

Page 1: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

CBRE PBSA INDEX:TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE

C B R E P B S A I N D E X 2 0 2 0

December 2020

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2CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

T H E C B R E P B S A I N D E X : W H A T A R E W E M E A S U R I N G ?

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Num

ber o

f Ass

ets

£bill

ion

year to September

Evolving CBRE PBSA Index Sample

Included Excluded Included (rhs) Excluded (rhs)

After excluding assets that have seen significant capex or have been transacted, the Index sample for Sep-20 climbed to 209 assets valued at £6.8bn (from 193 valued at £6.0bn a year earlier). This covers roughly 58,000 beds. Only “operational” assets are included.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020, CBRE Monthly Index September 2020.

58,456 Beds[73,788]

209 PBSA assets[256]

£6.804bn value[£8.236bn]

Figures in brackets indicate total sample valued consistently at end September.

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3CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

T E N Y E A R S O F P B S A P E R F O R M A N C E : T H E H E A D L I N E S

With total return of 4.9%, PBSAwas the best-

performing asset class in the year to Sep-20, even out-performing

Industrial (4.2%).

PBSA has out-performed the all property average,

and Office and Retail, over one,

five and ten years in absolute terms.

On a risk-adjusted basis,

PBSA returns are double those of the Mainstream

market, thanks to much lower

volatility.

The long term trend of London and Super Prime Regional assets to

out-perform Secondary has become more pronounced.

Some assets that were more reliant on international

students in 2019/20 have

seen occupancy fall more in 2020/21.

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HEADLINE PERFORMANCE

PBSA VERSUS MAINSTREAM REAL ESTATE

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5CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

T O T A L R E T U R N , P B S A V E R S U S M A I N S T R E A M , S E P - 2 0 1 0 T O S E P - 2 0 2 0

PBSA was the best-performing market in the year to September 2020, and has outperformed the Mainstream market as a whole and Retail and Office specifically over one, five and ten years. Only Industrial has out-performed over the longer time period.

The charts show total return in individual years and over one five and ten years for PBSA, all Mainstream property, and the three largest Mainstream sectors.

Total returns for PBSA were 4.9% in the year to September 2020, outperforming all other sectors. Mainstream returns averaged -3.5%.

While this was the lowest annual return in the 10-year history of the index, this was against a backdrop of wider economic malaise brought on by Covid-19 that caused returns across all asset classes to fall. Indeed, the decline in PBSAreturns, of a little under five percentage points (from 9.6% in the year to September 2019) was lower than the decline seen by mainstream sectors of around six percentage points.

PBSA has outperformed the Mainstream market over one, five and ten years. It has also beaten Retail and Office over the same period. Its five and ten years returns, of 9.4%pa and 10.8%pa are second only to Industrial. Performance has been consistent across individual years; in seven out of ten years, PBSA has ranked either first or second among the four sectors.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020, CBRE Monthly Index September 2020.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Total Return, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA All mainstream propertyRetail OfficeIndustrial

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Total Return, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA All mainstream property Retail Office Industrial

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6CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

V O L A T I L I T Y A N D C O R R E L A T I O N O F T O T A L R E T U R N , P B S A V E R S U S M A I N S T R E A M , S E P -2 0 1 0 T O S E P - 2 0 2 0

Given much lower volatility of returns, PBSA has produced risk-adjusted returns roughly three times as high as the Mainstream market and twice as high as the closest sector (Industrial). PBSA also offers a degree of diversification from the Mainstream.

The charts show total return, volatility and return per unit of volatility over the last ten years for PBSA and Mainstream property, as well as correlations across all sectors.

Over ten years, PBSA has seen total returns of 10.8%pa, higher than the mainstream property market at 7.5%pa. Returns for PBSA have been more stable than those in the Mainstream; the standard deviation of PBSA total return is 3.3, less than half that of the Mainstream (6.9).

Thus, when adjusting returns for volatility, PBSAoffers returns of 3.3% per unit of standard deviation over the last ten years. This is three times the average risk-adjusted Mainstream return (1.1%pa) and double that for the closest sector, Industrial (1.6%pa).

While PBSA is still positively correlated to the Mainstream, the degree of correlation (roughly 0.5 to 0.7) is lower than that of the Mainstream sectors to each other (0.8 to 0.95) suggesting that PBSA offers something of a diversification benefit.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020, CBRE Monthly Index September 2020.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Total return Standard deviation Return per unit ofstandard deviation

perc

ent

Risk-Adjusted Total Return, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA All mainstream property Retail Office Industrial

PBSAAll

mainstream property

Retail Office Industrial

PBSA 1.00 0.69 0.66 0.67 0.53

All mainstream property

0.69 1.00 0.94 0.94 0.87

Retail 0.66 0.94 1.00 0.82 0.80

Office 0.67 0.94 0.82 1.00 0.80

Industrial 0.53 0.87 0.80 0.80 1.00

Correlation of total return, Sep-10 to Sep-20

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7CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

C A P I T A L G R O W T H , P B S A V E R S U S M A I N S T R E A M , S E P - 2 0 1 0 T O S E P - 2 0 2 0

The charts show capital growth in individual years and over one five and ten years for PBSA, all Mainstream property, and the three largest Mainstream sectors.

PBSA saw capital values fall by -0.4% in the year to September 2020. This was the first year where capital growth was negative in the ten year history of the index, but the sector proved to be more resilient than mainstream property, where capital values fell by -8.7% (ranging from -0.7% on Industrial to -18.7% on Retail).

PBSA capital growth has exceeded that of the Mainstream market over one, five and ten years. It has also beaten Retail and Office over the same period. Its five and ten years growth rate, of 3.6%pa and 4.3%pa are second only to Industrial (at c6%pa). Performance has been consistent across individual years; in seven out of ten years, PBSA has ranked either first or second among the four sectors.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020, CBRE Monthly Index September 2020.

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Capital Growth, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA All mainstream propertyRetail OfficeIndustrial

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Capital Growth, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA All mainstream property Retail Office Industrial

PBSA saw the smallest decline in values in the year to September 2020, and has outperformed the Mainstream market as a whole and Retail and Office specifically over one, five and ten years. Only Industrial has out-performed over the longer time period.

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8CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

R E N T A L G R O W T H , P B S A V E R S U S M A I N S T R E A M , S E P - 2 0 1 0 T O S E P - 2 0 2 0

The charts show rental growth in individual years and over one five and ten years for PBSA, all Mainstream property, and the three largest Mainstream sectors. (Note: gross rental growth for PBSA and ERV growth for Mainstream)

PBSA saw rental values rise by 1.6% in the year to September 2020, the fifth consecutive year of outperformance against the Mainstream. Only Industrial saw higher growth (at 2.0%) while both Office and Retail saw rental values fall (-2.2% and -8.1% respectively).

PBSA rental growth has exceeded that of the Mainstream market over one, five and ten years. It has beaten Retail and Office over the same period. Its five year growth rate, 3.1%pa, is second only to Industrial (at 3.7%pa), but it has out-performed over ten years.

Performance has been consistent across individual years; in nine out of ten years, PBSAhas ranked first or second of the four sectors, and its worst year is better than Retail’s best. PBSA rental growth is almost zero correlated (0.05) with Mainstream ERV growth, but more strongly correlated with inflation (0.45)

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020, CBRE Monthly Index September 2020.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Rental Growth, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA All mainstream propertyRetail OfficeIndustrial RPI Inflation

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-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Rental Growth, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA All mainstream property Retail Office Industrial

PBSA rental growth has outperformed the Mainstream market as a whole and Retail and Office specifically over one, five and ten years. Only Industrial has out-performed over five years (but not ten). It has almost zero correlation with Mainstream rental growth.

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9CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

Y I E L D M O V E M E N T , P B S A V E R S U S M A I N S T R E A M , S E P - 2 0 1 0 T O S E P - 2 0 2 0

PBSA’s yield gap over the basket of Mainstream sectors held at around +50bps from 2010-2018 but the last two years have seen it shrink to -20bps in 2020. Within PBSA, yields have compressed in London and Super Prime and Prime Regional over the decade.

The charts show PBSA and Mainstream initial yield progression over the last ten years, and segment initial yields at Sep-10 and Sep-20.

Yields across all property sectors have largely declined over the decade, though this trend has been bucked over the last two years by Retail, where yields have risen 140bps. Coupled with the levelling off of Office and Industrial yields, the yield premium that PBSA offered over the basket of Mainstream sectors has disappeared to the point of having slightly inverted; PBSAyields were -20bps lower than the all property average by September 2020.

At the segment level, yields for PBSA assets across different quality / geography splits at Sep-10 were between c6-7%. By Sep-20, that range had widened to c4-8%. The trend is of alignment with mainstream markets. London PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super Prime and Prime Regional PBSA yields are similar to M25 and Rest UK Office yields. Secondary PBSA meanwhile, like Retail, has seen yields rise over the ten years.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020, CBRE Monthly Index September 2020.

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Yield Movement, Sep-10 to Sep-20

PBSA-Mainstream Gap PBSAAll mainstream property RetailOffice Industrial

3.63

4.04

4.53

5.39

5.89

6.82

7.52

7.61

4.07

5.36

3.97

4.79

5.05

5.51

7.90

5.27

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

West End & Mid Town offices

London PBSA

City offices

South East industrials

Outer London/M25 Offices

Super Prime Regional PBSA

All PBSA

All Mainstream Property

Rest UK industrials

Rest UK offices

Prime Regional PBSA

South East shops

Retail warehosues

Rest UK Shops

Shopping centres

Secondary PBSA

percent

Yield, Sep-10 and Sep-20

All Mainstream Property PBSA Industrial Retail Office 2010*

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DETAILED PERFORMANCE

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE WITHIN PBSA

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11CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

P B S A P E R F O R M A N C E , B Y N U M B E R O F B E D S

Source: CBRE Student Index, September 2020.

Total returns for larger PBSA assets (500+ beds) were lower than small to medium-sized assets in the year to September 2020. Over the long term, performance has improved with size, with 500+ beds assets out-performing slightly.

3.9

5.9 5.3

10.09.0 8.8

11.1 10.6 10.4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

500+

bed

s

250-

500

beds

<25

0 be

ds

500+

bed

s

250-

500

beds

<25

0 be

ds

500+

bed

s

250-

500

beds

<25

0 be

ds

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Performance by Number of Beds

Income Return Capital Growth Total Return

-0.20.8

3.22.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.40.6

1.3

3.5

2.3

3.6 3.6

2.8

3.53.2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

500+

bed

s

250-

500

beds

<25

0 be

ds

500+

bed

s

250-

500

beds

<25

0 be

ds

500+

bed

s

250-

500

beds

<25

0 be

ds

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Rental Growth by Number of Beds

Net Rental Growth Gross Rental Growth

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Yield Movement by Number of Beds

<250 beds 250-500 beds 500+ beds

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12CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

P B S A P E R F O R M A N C E , L O N D O N A N D R E G I O N A L

London PBSA has out-performed Regional PBSA by c2%pa in the short, medium and long-term. Rental growth in London has been strongest over ten years, but not over one and five. The yield gap has widened from under 50bps in Sep-12 to over 150bps in Sep-20.

6.1

4.2

10.8

8.7

12.4

10.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Lond

on

Regi

onal

Lond

on

Regi

onal

Lond

on

Regi

onal

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Performance by Geography

Income Return Capital Growth Total Return

0.31.3

1.9 2.03.0

2.20.8

1.92.3

3.3 3.53.2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Lond

on

Regi

onal

Lond

on

Regi

onal

Lond

on

Regi

onal

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Rental Growth by Geography

Net Rental Growth Gross Rental Growth

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Yield Movement by Geography

London Regional

Source: CBRE Student Index, September 2020.

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13CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

P B S A P E R F O R M A N C E , R E G I O N A L B Y Q U A L I T Y

Outside of London, PBSA returns have been notably weaker in Secondary locations, under-performing by 3.5%pa over ten years and c7% over one and five years. This is driven by both weaker rental growth and rising yields over the last five years.

5.4 4.8

-2.5

9.5 9.5

2.6

11.0 10.6

7.4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Supe

r Prim

e

Prim

e Re

gion

al

Seco

ndar

y

Supe

r Prim

e

Prim

e Re

gion

al

Seco

ndar

y

Supe

r Prim

e

Prim

e Re

gion

al

Seco

ndar

y

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Performance by Regional Quality

Income Return Capital Growth Total Return

2.81.7

-2.3

5.8

2.3

-0.8

1.32.4

1.3

3.0

2.2

-0.7

5.4

3.7

0.8

2.5

3.3

2.4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Supe

r Prim

e

Prim

e Re

gion

al

Seco

ndar

y

Supe

r Prim

e

Prim

e Re

gion

al

Seco

ndar

y

Supe

r Prim

e

Prim

e Re

gion

al

Seco

ndar

y

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Rental Growth by Regional Quality

Net Rental Growth Gross Rental Growth

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Yield Movement by Regional Quality

Super Prime Prime Regional Secondary

Source: CBRE Student Index, September 2020.

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14CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

P B S A P E R F O R M A N C E , A P P L I C A T I O N S T O T O W N

There is a clear pattern of performance whereby towns seeing an increase in student application numbers have out-performed over one, five and ten years. Stronger rental growth has underpinned this, but of late a yield gap has also opened up.

Three charts: TR and components, gross/net rental growth, net initial

yield movement

6.0

2.4

10.08.8

11.1

9.1

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Up

Down Up

Down Up

Down

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Performance by Town Application Change

Income Return Capital Growth Total Return

1.4

0.2

2.4 2.2 2.51.8

1.9

1.1

3.53.1

3.3

2.5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Up

Down Up

Down Up

Down

1 year 5 years 10 years

perc

ent

year to September

Rental Growth by Town Application Change

Net Rental Growth Gross Rental Growth

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

perc

ent

year to September

Yield Movement by Town Application Change

Up Down

Source: CBRE Student Index, September 2020.

Page 15: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

15CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

A S S E T L E V E L C A P I T A L G R O W T H

More PBSA assets saw values fall than rise in the year to Sep-20, with a tail of 10% of assets seeing values decline by more than -10%. London and Super Prime Regional assets offered greater resilience against downside at the asset level.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

capi

tal g

rowt

h, %

percentile

Asset Level Capital Growth Distribution, Individual Years

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Distributions on 2020 categories

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

500+ beds 250-500beds

<250 beds London SuperPrime

PrimeRegional

Secondary Up Down

Beds Regional Prime Application ChangeCa

pita

l Val

ue G

rowt

h to

Sep

t-20

(%)

Asset Level Capital Growth Distribution, by Category, Year to Sep-20

Mean Capital Growth Min Capital Growth Max Capital Growth

Page 16: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

16CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S O F A S S E T S R A N K E D B Y C A P I T A L G R O W T H , Y E A R T O S E P - 2 0 2 0

When ranking assets by capital growth, there is a clear tendency for certain characteristics (e.g. London, Applications Up) to appear towards the top and for others (Prime Regional, secondary, Applications Down) towards the bottom.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

London Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Super Prime Y Y Y Y Y

Prime Regional Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Secondary

500+ beds Y Y Y Y

250-500 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

<250 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Up Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Down Y Y Y Y Y Y

45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

London Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Super Prime Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Prime Regional Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Secondary Y Y

500+ beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

250-500 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

<250 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Up Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Down Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151

London Y Y Y Y Y Y

Super Prime Y Y

Prime Regional Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Secondary Y Y Y Y Y Y

500+ beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

250-500 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

<250 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Up Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Down Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209

London

Super Prime Y Y Y

Prime Regional Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Secondary Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

500+ beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

250-500 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

<250 beds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Up Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Down Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Quality / Location

Number of Beds

Applications

RISERS, BETTER THAN 3%

RISERS, 0% TO 3%

FALLERS, 0% TO -4%

FALLERS, WORSE THAN -4%

Quality / Location

Number of Beds

Applications

Quality / Location

Number of Beds

Applications

Quality / Location

Number of Beds

Applications

Page 17: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

17CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

P B S A O C C U P A N C Y 2 0 1 9 / 2 0 A N D 2 0 2 0 / 2 1 , R E L I A N C E O N I N T E R N A T I O N A L S T U D E N T S

Although (for the subset of the sample for which we have data) 2020/21 occupancy is at or above 95% for a majority of assets, a number have seen occupancy fall below 85%, with many of these having been more reliant on international students in 2019/20.

The chart shows the share of beds occupied by international students in the 2019/20 year, against occupancy for the same year and for the 2020/21 year. [Note: this is not analysis of the full sample, it is just for those assets that we have data for].

The comparison shows that occupancy has undoubtedly weakened. In 2019/20, only two assets registered occupancy of under 85%, compared with 26 in 2020/21. That said, many assets have remained resilient; a majority of assets have occupancy at or above 95% in 2020/21.

Many of those assets with weaker occupancy in 2020/21 are those that relied more highly on international students in the prior year; as the shaded area shows, 17 of the 26 assets with vacancy below 85% in 2020/21 had an international occupancy share of over 50% in 2019/20.

Source: CBRE Student Index 2020, CBRE Monthly Index September 2020.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Occ

upan

cy in

201

9/20

(las

t yea

r) a

nd 2

020/

21 (t

his y

ear)

International Student Occupancy Share 2019/20

Asset Level 2019/20 and 2021/21 Occupancy versus 2019/20 International Share

2019/20 Occupancy 2020/21 Occupancy

100 beds

500 beds

1,000 beds

Page 18: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

ASSET CHARACTERISTICS

INCOME, COSTS AND VALUE PER BED

Page 19: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

19CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

P B S A O P E R A T I N G S T A T I S T I C S , S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 0

Source: CBRE Debt Map Q3 2020.

Costs show far less variation than gross income; accordingly net income per bed averages 2.5x higher in London than in secondaryassets. With yields also starkly differentiated, average London value per bed is over 5.0x higher than for secondary assets.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

500+ beds 250-500 beds <250 beds London Super Prime Prime Regional Secondary Up Down

Beds Regional Prime Application Change

Capi

tal v

alue

per

bed

(£)

Annu

al In

com

e pe

r bed

(£)

Income and Value per Bed

Net Income per bed (lhs) Gross Income per bed (lhs) Capital Value per Bed (rhs)

Page 20: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

20CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

T E N Y E A R S O F P B S A P E R F O R M A N C E : T H E H E A D L I N E S

With total return of 4.9%, PBSAwas the best-

performing asset class in the year to Sep-20, even out-performing

Industrial (4.2%).

PBSA has out-performed the all property average,

and Office and Retail, over one,

five and ten years in absolute terms.

On a risk-adjusted basis,

PBSA returns are double those of the Mainstream

market, thanks to much lower

volatility.

The long term trend of London and Super Prime Regional assets to

out-perform Secondary has become more pronounced.

Some assets that were more reliant on international

students in 2019/20 have

seen occupancy fall more in 2020/21.

Page 21: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

21CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

T E N Y E A R S O F P B S A P E R F O R M A N C E : T H E D A T A

Unique, ten year data set of operational PBSAreal estate performance.

Full range of performance measures, including gross and net rental growth and yield movement.

Allows more scientific approach to asset appraisal for portfolio management and acquisition.

Enables comparison across real estate and within PBSA sector thanks to categorisation of assets.

Available on subscription, £7,500pa (ex VAT). Contact the CBRE Research team for information.

Contact us

Emily GornallSenior Analyst, UK [email protected]

Dominic SmithSenior Director, UK [email protected]

Page 22: CBRE PBSA INDEX: TEN YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE · 2020. 12. 14. · PBSA yields are now roughly level with London Office yields, having been nearly 2% higher in 2010, while Super

22CBRE DECEMBER 2020 | CBRE STUDENT INDEX

This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real-estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change.

Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s affiliates, Officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein.

DISCLAIMERS AND WAIVERS

22