(1)

Credit Crunch

Tracking

June 2011

Cautious

Optimism

Resurfaces …

(2)

Cautious Optimism Resurfaces…

� In spite of the current debt crisis in Greece/Europe,

Irish consumers remain as optimistic as post-election

three months ago, and much more optimistic than a

year ago.

� Expectations for the Irish economy have also

improved, and as a people we claim to be much

“happier” than three months ago.

� Our monthly spending has increased also slightly…

� … however concerns over the World economy are

stifling further increases.

(3)

Our personal

outlook on the

recession is much

more positive

than a year ago

and unchanged

from the level

recorded post-

election.

(4)

393530

33High impact (8-10)

Limited Impact (1-3)

Personal Recession Impact – Overall

Average 6.7

Some Impact (4-7) 52

6.2

March‘11%

52

159

May‘10%

6.2

June‘11%

47

18

� Less people feel

personally

impacted by the

recession than a

year ago.

� But more than 1

in 3 still feel the

recession has

had a major

impact on them

personally.

5.9

49

21

Sept‘10%

(5)

39 39 3942

48

37

26

36

41

45

36

3027

33 3230

33

19

24

34 34

27

32 3133

30

41

35

18

27

39 40

27

3533

3634 33

43

20

32

38 3734

18-34%

35-44%

45-64%

AGE

65+%

Any%

None%

CHILDREN

Male%

Female%

GENDER

ABC1%

C2DE%

SOCIALCLASS

Personal Recession Impact Overall

– Net High Impact (8-10)

TOTAL%

The 45-64 year olds feel more impacted overall by the recession than any other

demographic group and are considerably more impacted now than in March.

June‘11

May‘10

March‘11

Sept‘10

(6)

The impact on

our monthly

spending and

way of life has

lessoned over

the past year,

with a decreased

impact on job

security in the

past three

months.

(7)

4132 37 35 33

23 29 29

Monthly Spending

Average

Your Way Of Life

High impact (8-10)

Limited Impact (1-3)

Some Impact (4-7)

Impact of Recession on….

5.7

48

March‘11%

6.2

46

March‘11%

-2% 0%

+1% +1%17

23

6.1

50

May‘10%

17

6.5

44

May‘10%

15

+1% -1%

6.1

47

June‘11%

18

5.7

47

June‘11%

24

5.8

47

Sept‘10%

21

5.5

52

Sept‘10%

25

(8)

Full-time Workers Part-time Workers

Impact of Recession on Job Security

30 22 21

4536 35 37

21

Average

High impact (8-10)

Limited Impact (1-3)

Some Impact (4-7)

5.9

40

March‘11%

4.9

39

March‘11%

-1%+2%

-4% -4%

2539

5.2

33

May‘10%

37

6.5

34

May‘10%

21

+5%+2%

35

June‘11%

44

36

June‘11%

27

4.5 5.94.4

33

Sept‘10%

46

5.7

34

Sept‘10%

30

(9)

Expectations for

the Irish

economy

continue to

improve – after

falling back at

the end of last

year with the

austerity budget

(10)

38 39 3235 29 29 30 31

40 41

29 1721 30 23 19

9 7

1821 23

17 19 211 1

21 2

22

2

Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Average

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

1.92

12

1.88

11

2.32

18

NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 19 38

How do you expect the Irish economy to fare

in the next 6 months?

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

2.54

26

48

Feb‘10%

2.57

51

May‘10%

26

� Almost 1 in 4

expect the

economy to

improve over the

next 6 months.

� Half do not

expect the

economy to

worsen over the

next 6 months.

2.32

41

Sept‘10%

22

2.47

47

March‘11%

25

2.56

50

June‘11%

27

(11)

The youth has

the most positive

expectations for

the economy.

While we see a

significant decline

in expectations

among the

elderly.

(12)

Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5)

50 5248

55

43

50 49 49 49 4850

18-34%

35-44%

45-64%

AGE

65+%

Any%

None%

CHILDREN

Male%

Female%

GENDER

ABC1%

C2DE%

SOCIALCLASS

TOTAL%

Change

since

Mar ‘10+3% +3% +4% +6% +4% +7% -10% +1% +2% +4% +2%

(13)

In contrast,

expectations for

the World

economy

continue to

decline –

perhaps driven

by the debt crisis

in Greece

(14)

33 3421 17 21 21 24 26

15 11

85

8 8 1013

31 3144

5343 41 37 33

3 2

5

5

6 55

3Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Average

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

NET Same/Better (3-5)

2.72

16

2.77

18

3.18

19

50 51 68

How do you expect the World economy to fare in the

next 6 months?

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

3.36

20

78

Feb‘10%

3.17

22

71

May‘10%

� Almost 2 in 5

expect the World

economy to fare

worse in the next 6

months.

� But more than 1

in 3 expect the

World economy to

improve in the

next 6 months.

3.13

25

71

Sept‘10%

3.04

23

66

March‘11%

2.88

25

61

June‘11%

(15)

Expectations for

the housing

market and job

security in

Ireland are

unchanged over

the past three

months.

(16)

44 40 3735 32 37 35 37

37 38 3639 36 34 32 32

21 22 19 13 13 14 18 17 42 4028 21 21 21 23 24

15 15 10 12

7 712 12 14 13 12 13

22

1

1

2 1 2 2 1 3

11 12 1515

1

22 2

22

Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Average

The Housing Market 6 months

from now?

Job security 6 months from

now?

2.29

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

1.85

20 11

2.32 1.89

23 14

2.43

26

2.24

20

NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 1937 2243 34

2.59

36

53

2.34

27

40

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

How do you expect the Housing and Job markets to

fare in the next 6 months?

2.60

55

May‘10%

2.39

42

May‘10%

38 27

2.55

49

Sept‘10%

32

2.40

45

Sept‘10%

31

2.40

47

Mar‘11%

36

2.37

45

Mar‘11%

32

2.43

46

June‘11%

32

2.38

44

June‘11%

28

(17)

There is an

increase in

happiness among

Irish consumers

since March, with

less people

suggesting their

quality of life,

motivation and

energy has

declined

(18)

35 26 22 15 24 16 26 20

1920

2026

2513

13 16Better

Worse

The Same

Change Compared To Same Time Last Year in ....

Quality of Life

%

Your Happiness

%

Your Energy for Life

%

Your Motivation

%

74%85% 84%

80%

Our happiness has improved with almost 1 in 5 feeling happier now that at the

same time last year. Our quality of life has also improved but 1 in 4 feel that their

quality of life have declined since last year.

June‘11

61 66 64 55

March‘11

52 62 56 48

(19)

% Better/Same as same

time last year

Quality of LifeYour

Happiness

Your Energy

for Life

Your

Motivation

Total 74 85 84 80

Gender

Male 76 87 90 85

Female 72 83 78 75

Age

18-34 77 85 84 81

35-44 69 83 78 74

45-64 69 84 85 80

65+ 85 94 88 85

Social Class

ABC1 73 84 80 77

C2DE 72 85 84 80

Those aged 65 and over have seen a greater positive impact on quality of

life and happiness compared to a year ago.

Change Compared To Same Time Last Year

Analysed by key demographics

(20)

As a result more people claim to have either already increased monthly expenditure or expect to do so in the next six months…

…but uncertainty is holding further spending back.

(21)

7365

73 70 70 67 68 6774

6874 72 72

6674 71

11 12 9 7 10 9 8 713 12 12 10 15 17

11 12

1217

13 15 12 17 16 17 9 15 10 1210

13

11 11

46

5 8 67 8 9

45

4 6 34

4 6Already increased

Not likely to

increase

Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or

socialising

Grocery spend

Consumer goods and services – e.g.

hairdresser, clothes, mobile

phone, gaming etc.

Holidays and short

breaks

Likely to increasein next 6 months

Likely to increasein next 12 months

Likelihood to increase spend in...

More people are now claiming to have increased spend across all categories,

but especially for entertainment/socialising – with an improved proportion also

saying they will spend more in the next six months

May‘10%

May‘10%

May‘10%

May‘10%

Sept‘10%

Sept‘10%

Sept‘10%

Sept‘10%

Mar‘11%

Mar‘11%

Mar‘11%

Mar‘11%

June‘11%

June‘11%

June‘11%

June‘11%

(22)

% Likely to increase

spend in next 12 monthsEntertainment

Grocery

Spend

Consumer

Goods/

Services

Holidays/

Shorter Breaks

Total 22 24 22 23

Gender

Male 21 21 21 24

Female 23 28 23 23

Age

18-34 32 36 29 32

35-44 20 22 18 20

45-64 16 19 18 17

65+ 15 18 20 21

Social Class

ABC1 22 26 21 20

C2DE 22 25 23 26

The 18-34 year olds are most likely to increase spend

again... across all categories

(23)

Summary...

• Expectation for how the Irish economy will fare over the next 6 months shows signs of improvement again, after being heavily impacted by the last budget.

• The impact that the recession is having on people personally also appears to be improving.

• Optimism also remains regarding our personal situation, with less people expecting to be impacted by the recession personally and more people feeling happier than the same time last year.

(24)

Summary...

• Most positively this has led to more people claiming to already be spending more and those likely to increase spending in the future – particularly on entertainment and grocery.

• However, this potential increased spending is most likely to be seen particularly seen among those in younger age groups – and it is those in older age groups who have savings set aside that still need to be persuaded.

• The reticence to spend is being underpinned by uncertainty with the World economy, where concerns continue to grow, fostered by events in Greece.

(25)

Methodology – RED Express

• 1,000 telephone interviews (CATI)

using a random digital sample to

ensure coverage of all households,

including ex-directory.

• Quotas were set and data weighted to

ensure a national representative

sample of the population aged 18+

years.

• This is the 11th wave of the credit

crunch tracking – fieldwork was

conducted the 20th-22nd June 2011.