Capital project and infrastructure spending Projects and... · provides the first consistent data...
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www.pwc.com/cpi-outlook2025 Capital project and infrastructure spending Outlook to 2025 Research by
Transcript of Capital project and infrastructure spending Projects and... · provides the first consistent data...
www.pwc.com/cpi-outlook2025
Capital project and infrastructure spending Outlook to 2025
Research by
Contents
1. Argentina
2. Contacts
Given the regulatory and legal uncertainties that make for a difficult investment environment, as well as fiscal constraints that limit government resources, Argentina’s infrastructure investment is expected to grow by a modest 4.8% a year on average over the next decade or so.
In particular, we expect the extractive sectors in Argentina to grow more slowly given the recent nationalization of YPF-Repsol. Argentina’s utilities sector is also forecasted to see a modest growth in spending (around 2–3% a year) over the coming decade.
Outlook to 2025Argentina
Figure 1: Infrastructure spending in a national context
Source: Oxford Economics
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Infrastructure spending as a % of total fixed investment, LHS)Infrastructure spending as a % of GDP, RHS)
Forecast
Figure 2: Infrastructure spending by broad sector
$bn per year, current prices
Source: Oxford Economics
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Extraction
Utilities includingPowergen and telecoms
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In light of the abundance of natural resources, we expect chemicals, metals and fuels investment to grow more broadly in line with neighboring economies. Growth rates of 6% a year on average in the chemicals sector, as well as 6% a year in metals, will likely be the fastest of any infrastructure development in Argentina. Telecommunications investment is also expected to continue to grow—having already increased by 87% from 2006 to 2011—due to more and more demand for broadband and mobile connectivity. Argentina’s demographics are the least favorable in the Latin America region, with
the old-age population set to almost match the 14-and-under cohort by 2025. As such, investment in education is expected to increase only modestly by 3.1% over the coming decade, while healthcare spending will likely grow faster at 4% a year.
Overall, we expect annual infrastructure spending to reach just over $30bn a year by 2025 as Argentina experiences a steadily decreasing share of both regional and global infrastructure investment.
Figure 3: Investment in extraction infrastructure
$bn per year, current prices
Source: Oxford Economics
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Figure 4: Manufacturing infrastructure investment
$bn per year, current prices
Source: Oxford Economics
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Fuels
Basic Metals
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Forecast
This report from PwC, with research by Oxford Economics, is part of an overall package of materials that provides the first consistent data analyzing projected capital project and infrastructure spending across the globe. For investors, public officials, and companies planning capital investments, it highlights the sectors and countries expected to benefit from this investment resurgence. And it provides insight on the factors driving the expected investment growth.
© 2014 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see http://www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. AT-14-0202
Data Sources: OECD, World Health Organisation, UNIDO, UNESCO, World Bank, Oxford Economics.
Figure 5: Transportation infrastructure investment
$bn per year, current prices
Source: Oxford Economics
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Airports
Ports
Forecast
Rail
Roads
Figure 6: Other utilities infrastructure investment
$bn per year, current prices
Source: Oxford Economics
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Gas distribution
Water supply and sanitation
Forecast
Electricity T&D
Figure 7: Social infrastructure investment
$bn per year, current prices
Source: Oxford Economics
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Figure 9: Infrastructure in global context
Source: Oxford Economics
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Infrastructure spending as a % of South America, LHSInfrastructure spending as a % of world, RHS
Forecast
Figure 8: Demographic change
Proportion of population aged:
Source: Oxford Economics
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Population aged < 14Population aged 65+
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Figure 10: Argentina versus peers
Total infrastructure spending per year, $bn
Source: Oxford Economics
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ArgentinaChile Colombia
Peru
Forecast
Global and regional contacts
Richard Abadie Global leader Capital projects & infrastructure Tel: +44(0) 20 7213 [email protected]
Neil Broadhead EMEA Capital projects & infrastructure Tel: +44 (0) 20 7804 [email protected]
Mark Rathbone Asia-Pacific Capital projects & infrastructure Tel: +65 6236 [email protected]
Peter Raymond North and South America Capital projects & infrastructure Tel: +1 703 918 [email protected]
Country contacts
ArgentinaMaximiliano GalliTel: +54 11 4850 [email protected]
AustraliaMatt ThomsonTel: +61 (7) 3257 5166 [email protected]
Mario D’EliaTel: +61 (3) 8603 [email protected]
AzerbaijanJan Brazda Tel: +42 02 5115 [email protected]
Bahrain Stephen AndersonTel: +974 4419 [email protected]
Brazil Carlos BiedermannTel: +55 51 3378 [email protected]
CanadaMichel GrillotTel: +1 (403) 509 [email protected]
Johanne Mullen Tel: +1 (514) 205 [email protected]
ChileGerman MillanTel: +56 2 2940 [email protected]
China Gabriel WongTel: +86 (21) 2323 [email protected]
Colombia Peter Raymond Tel: +1 703 918 [email protected]
Czech RepublicJan Brazda Tel: +42 02 5115 [email protected]
EthiopiaJonathan CawoodTel: +27 11 797 [email protected]
FranceBenjamin RibaultTel: +33 (0) 1 56 57 60 [email protected]
Christian Rasomanana Tel: +33 56 57 67 03christian.rasoamanana@ fr.pwc.com
GermanyHansjörg Arnold Tel: +49 69 9585 [email protected]
Capital project and infrastructure spending: Outlook to 2025 contacts
GhanaJonathan CawoodTel: +27 11 797 [email protected]
Hungary Jan Brazda Tel: +42 02 5115 [email protected]
IndiaManish Agarwal Tel: +91 22 6669 [email protected]
IndonesiaJulian SmithTel: +62 21 5289 [email protected]
Rizal SatarTel: +62 21 5289 [email protected]
ItalyGuido Sirolli Tel: 390 6 5708 [email protected]
JapanYumiko NodaTel: +81 80 4116 [email protected]
Kazakhstan Jan Brazda Tel: +42 02 5115 [email protected] Kenya Jonathan Cawood Tel: +27 11 797 [email protected]
Kuwait Stephen AndersonTel: +974 4419 [email protected]
Malaysia Siow Ming TanTel: +66 (0) 2 286 [email protected]
Mexico Francisco IbanezTel: +52 55 5263 [email protected]
MozambiqueJonathan CawoodTel: +27 11 797 [email protected]
Netherlands Martin Blokland Tel: +31 (0) 88 792 75 [email protected]
New Zealand Mark Rathbone Tel: +65 6236 [email protected]
Nigeria Farouk Gumel Tel: +234 (1) 271 [email protected]
Ian AruoforTel: +234 (1) 271 [email protected]
OmanStephen AndersonTel: +974 4419 [email protected]
Peru Peter Raymond Tel: +1 703 918 [email protected]
PhilippinesRose JavierTel: +63 (2) 845 [email protected]
Poland Jan Brazda Tel: +42 02 5115 [email protected]
Qatar Stephen AndersonTel: +974 4419 [email protected]
Romania Jan Brazda Tel: +42 02 5115 [email protected] Russia Dmitry Kovalev Tel: +7 495 223 [email protected]
Saudi ArabiaJonathan BarnesTel: +966 2 610 4400 [email protected]
Singapore Mark Rathbone Tel: +65 6236 [email protected]
South Africa Jonathan CawoodTel: +27 11 797 [email protected]
South Korea Steven JeongTel: +82 (0) 2 3781 [email protected]
SpainPatricio de Antonio Lorenzo Tel: +34 915 684 [email protected]
Sweden Lars Tvede-JensenTel: +46 (0) 10 213 [email protected]
Tanzania Jonathan CawoodTel: +27 11 797 [email protected]
Thailand Charles OstickTel: +66 (0)2 344 1167 [email protected]
Turkey Husnu Dincsoy Tel: +90 212 376 53 [email protected]
UAEStephen AndersonTel: +974 4419 [email protected]
UK Neil BroadheadTel: +44 (0) 20 7804 [email protected]
Ukraine Jan Brazda Tel: +42 02 5115 [email protected] US Peter Raymond Tel: +1 703 918 [email protected]
Vietnam Johnathan OoiTel: +84 8 3824 0126 [email protected]
www.pwc.com/cpi-outlook2025
To have a deeper conversation about this subject, please contact:
Richard Abadie Global leader Capital projects & infrastructurePricewaterhouseCoopers LLP7 More London Riverside, London, SE1 2RT [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 20 7213 3225 Neil Broadhead EMEA Capital projects & infrastructurePricewaterhouseCoopers LLPEmbankment Place, One Embankment Place, London WC2N [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 20 7804 4423
© 2015 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. MW-15-2054 LL
Methodology note: In developing this analysis, Oxford Economics used data sets to provide consistent, reliable, and repeatable measures of projected capital project and infrastructure spending globally as well as by country. Historical spending data is drawn from government and multinational organisation statistical sources. Projections are based on proprietary economic models developed by Oxford Economics at the country and sector levels. The analysis, completed over the first half of 2015, incorporates all available information at that time. For more information on the methodological basis for these projections, please see the global report. The results for this report have been estimated using the following underlying data sources: World Health Organisation, UNESCO, World Bank, Annual Capital Expenditures Survey, Association of American Ports, Edison Electrical Institute, Office of Highway Policy Information, Federal Highways Authority, Department of Transportation, National Clearinghouse of Educational Facilities, Department of Education, Oxford Economics.
Mark Rathbone Asia-Pacific Capital projects & infrastructurePricewaterhouseCoopers Services LLP 8 Cross Street #17-00, PWC Building, Singapore 048424 [email protected] Tel: +65 6236 4190 Peter Raymond North and South America Capital projects & infrastructurePricewaterhouseCoopers LLP1800 Tysons Blvd., McLean, VA [email protected] Tel: +1 703 918 1580
