Capital Program Oversight Committee (CPOC) May 23, 2011 Alok Saha, P.E., Program Manager, CPM...
Transcript of Capital Program Oversight Committee (CPOC) May 23, 2011 Alok Saha, P.E., Program Manager, CPM...
Capital Program Oversight Committee (CPOC)
May 23, 2011
Alok Saha, P.E., Program Manager, CPMInfrastructure and Facilities – Line Equipment, Shops & Yard
Mulry Square Fan Plant
Quantitative Risk Assessment
Mulry Square Fan Plant
Serving both 7th & 8th Avenue Subway Lines (local & express)
Site Location
*
2
Existing Site
Memorial Tiles
7th Ave.
7th Ave.
Greenwich Ave.
Greenwich Ave.
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Key Plan & Design Innovations
Greenwich Avenue
IND A, C & E trains
IRT 1, 2 & 3 trains
7th Avenue
Parking
Parking
Use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in project design
Relocated 7th Ave. Plenum to above the existing Subway structure
Reduced the Design Heat Load and # of fans
Preserve space for 9/11 memorial tiles display
PLENUMPLENUM
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Risk Mitigation Plan
Fan Performance issues (factory & field)
• Improved specifications and design documents
• Frequent site visit during installation by commissioning, design and users groups
Testing and Acceptance Issues
• Standardization of testing and acceptance protocols
• Programmable Logic Controller Control software by in-house engineers
• Thorough shake-down tests
Street Work • Close coordination with DOT and Community
• Comprehensive MPT Plans for phased construction
Utility Issues
NYCDEP and Con Edison Power Service
• Extra effort in design phase for utility identification and coordination
• Close coordination with Con Edison
• Close coordination with NYC Department of Environmental Protection
ROW Work Issues • Advance track access planning and coordination
• Coordinate multiple activities/trades simultaneously
• Installation of track shielding
Lessons Learned – Mitigated Risks(Building on the experiences of prior Fan Plant Projects)
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Air Flow Schematic - Exhaust
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Rendering of the Final Facade
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Objectives of Risk Assessment
Confirm 80% confidence level in:
Project base cost estimate - $89.0M Construction duration – 40 Months
Ensure a clear path to successful project delivery
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Trend of Construction Duration & Cost (1990 – 2012 forecast)
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Project Averages (Duration & Cost)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4
Completion Period (1990 - 2012)
Con
st. D
urn.
(M
onth
s)
Duration Delay Ahead
Avg. Completion 64 Months Avg. Completion 39 Months
Financial 1990-1999Award: $10.10Completion.:$11.05Savings: $-0.95Savings: -9.39%
1990-1999
2000-2004
2005-2010
2012
Financial 2000-2004Award: $22.65Completion: $21.91Savings: $0.74Savings: 3.26%
Financial 2005-2010Award: $48.46Completion: $46.44Savings: $2.02Savings: 4.16%
2012 Awd:$76.02 Cmp:$71.52 Svg: $4.5 Svg: 6.05%
Trend Line - Construction Duration
Jackson Ave(Forecast)
64
51 50
39
14
14 9
4
Avg. Delay14 Months
Risk Cost Schedule Mitigation
Street Work and Con Edison Steam Main Work
$5.6M to $ 0.1M
(Save $ 5.5M)
12 to 0 Months
Concurrent with subsurface work
• Close coordination with DOT and community. Secured DOT stipulations
• Close coordination with Con Edison
R-O-W work $9.8M to $4.9M
(Save $ 4.9M)
Concurrent with the Street work
• Installation of track shields• Provide greater schedule flexibility
to coordinate multiple trades activities
IRT 7th Ave. Plenum Construction Below Tracks
$24.4M to $17.9M
(Save $ 6.5M)
Concurrent with the Street work
• Plenum redesign (design innovation) • Construct plenum below 7th Ave and
over subway roof
Environmental-UndergroundGas Tanks
$0.5M to $0.22M
(Save $ 0.22M)
3 to 0 Months • Remove before Award
Subsurface Conditions andSettlement of theAdjacent Structure
$4.0M to $1.85M
(Save $ 2.15M)
12 to 0 Months concurrent with the Street work
• Additional proactive site investigations• Worst case scenario [total wall
replacement] in bid estimate• Hired consultant experienced in
100 year old masonry buildings
Risk Drivers and Mitigations (cost and schedule savings)
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Risk Based Project Cost & Schedule
Overall Project Cost-Risk-Based-Cost Estimate Risk-Based Project Duration
$88.9
$89.0
40.6
40.0
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Total Project Construction Duration Savings [15 Months]
Base Estimate@ Preliminary
Design – without mitigations
Revised Estimate@ Final Design – with mitigations
80% Confidence Level
@ Risk Analysis
Anticipated Project Award
55 40– 27%
40.6– 0.015%
2011
*The total project cost includes bid, force accounts as well as other third party costs such as utilities and traffic agents
Cost and Schedule Savings
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Total Project Construction Cost savings [$19.5 M]
Base Estimate@ Preliminary
Design
Revised Estimate@ Final Design
80% Confidence Level
@ Risk Analysis
Anticipated Project Award
$108.5M $89M*– 17.97%
$88.9M– 0.01%
2011