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Economics October 5, 2011 

www.cfib.ca

Ted Mallett, Vice-President & Chief Economist 

CFIB Business Barometer Index and GDP

62.7

GDP

-12-10-8-6-4-20246810

303540455055606570758085

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Real GDP-%ch-SAARIndex (0-100)*

Quarterly | Monthly

*e.g. Index of 50 = equal balance of stronger and weaker businessexpe ctations

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Business Barometer®  2

Business Barometer - Provinces Business Barometer - Industries

Short-term Business Performance

63 .7

74 .4

71 .9

65 .5

58 .6

58 .6

60 .8

59 .4

63 .2

67 .4

British Columbia

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

Ontario

Quebec

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Is.

Newfoundland & Lab.

59.9

69.2

57.5

61.7

65.2

57.4

60.9

69.0

61.5

62.5

71.9

54.6

69.1

Agriculture

Natural resources

Construction

Manufacturing

WholesaleRetail

Transportation

Arts, recreation, info.

Finance, insur. realty

Prof., business services

Health & education serv.

Hospitality

Personal services

149

-30

-10

10

30

50

2009 2010 2011

% balance of opinionbetter (worse)

Next 3 - 4 months

Past 3 - 4 months

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Business Barometer®   3

Full-time employment plans, next 3 or 4 months

Leading Indicators

Capital Spending Plans, Next 3-4 Months

Overall State of Business

Main Business Constraints

Major Cost Concerns

Wages and Prices, Next 12 Months

Notes: To compensate for small monthly sample sizes, theindex calculations for some subcategories are based onmonthly moving averages. The data are not seasonally adjusted.

Business Barometer is a registered trademark 

13

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2009 2010 2011

% responseIncrease

Decrease

-13

-8-9

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2009 2010 2011

% balance of opinionbetter (worse) than normal

Unsold inventories

Unfilled orders

Staff overtime

28

1415

0

10

20

30

40

2009 2010 2011

% response Computers, comm., office te

Vehicles

Process machinery, equip.

Land, buildings, renovations

Good, 41%

Satisfactory,44%

Bad, 15%

42

11

13

35

15

30

28

4

9

18

Insufficient domestic demand

Insufficient foreign demand

Foreign competition

Shortage of skilled labour

Shortage of un/semi-skilled labour

Management skills, time constraints

Shortage of working capital

Shortage of input products

Product distribution constraints

Limited space

%

70

46

21

39

11

21

18

24

48

60

Fuel, energy costsWage costs

Borrowing costsBank account and processing fees

Foreign currencies

Product input costsCapital equipment, technology costs

Occupancy costsInsurance costs

Tax, regulatory costs

%

1.51.7

0

1

2

2009 2010 2011

Staff wage levels

Selling prices

%ch.