CAMBODIA DEBT
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KEM LEY | Principal investigatorNHIM DALEN |ConsultantBORAY BORALIN | Data AnalystUMAKANT SINGH | Advisor
CAMBODIA DEBT
28 Feb 2011
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I. Cambodia Debt
People Debt
Publicly Guaranteed Debt
Public
Debt
Getting from formal and informal micro finance Institutions (FMI) & Individual
Getting from developed and economic powerful countries and international finance institutions
Getting from international finance institutions such as ADB, WB, IFM and others
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I. Cambodia Debt
USA>300 Millions
China4 B
Others
Russia1.5 B
Total: 4.2 B US$42 M US$ Paid on external debt in 2008
1.8 B-Two-third
60% or 94% public debt
As of 2004, debt was 3.2 B or 66% of GDP, WB source 2004
Debt from 2004-2011
1,609 B. Aid Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC
US + Russia+2004-2011= 4,809 Billions
Cheam Yap7 BillionsBut PM declared only 2 billions or 27.7% of GDP (12,92 B )
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I. Cambodia Debt
Public Debt7.4 Billions as of 2011 (USA:
300 + Russia 1.5 _ China 4 B + other
1.6 )
People with DebtMore than 1
millions of clients of MFI
Publicly Guaranteed
Debt????
Direct Debt of Cambodia People is around 500 US$ per HH or around 50% of Cambodia People fell in serious debt
Public Debt is around 7 billion US$ in 2011Or 500 US$ per individual (14 millions of Cambodia Population )-Indirect Debt of Cambodia Population
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II. AID PER CAPITA & AID/GDP Ratio
Source: Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC
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II. Disbursement and Projection
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
387.2 438.8578.9 559.9
708.9 752.7 810.6 809.4 795.9
486.5
231
188.2171.2
134.3 217.6
271.6 244264.4
117.8
346.9
346.2
279.9
LoanGrant
Disbursement and Projection 2004-2014 (US$ Million)
Source: Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC
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I. Cambodia Debt
World Bank Report
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 20250
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
30 30 30 3028 27
21
11
Debt /GDP ratio
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I. Cambodia Debt
World Bank Report
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 20250
50
100
150
200
250235
222 214 204 193 184
142
74
Debt /National Revenue Ratio
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II. NGO disbursement (2005-2010)
Source: Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
44.70 50.2077.70
110.70 108.40127.50
59.50
113.30
100.20
100.20 97.50
92.90
Provided by DPCore Fund
Million US$
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I. USA an Other countries with Debt
Cambodia : GDP 12,92 B or 27.7% of GDP or 61 % of GDP
Thailand: 44 % of GDP
EU: 60-70% of GDP, EU : 86% of GDP in 2010
USA : 101 % of GDP , 32 Billions
Greek 173 % of GDP in 2011 or 340 B
ITALY: 120 % of GDP or 2.4 T in 2010
SPAIN: 60% of GDP or 820 Billions
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I. Cambodia Economic Overview
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
8.10%
6.60%
8.50%
10.30%
13.30%
10.80%10.20%
6.70%
0.10%
6.00%
6.50% 6.50%6.50%
Cambodia’s Real GDP Growth Rate
GDP Annual Growth
Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Three year Rolling Investment Plan 2012-2014, RGC, MoEF
Estimation NSDP 2009-
2013
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
455514
594
738 731
830 853915
981
TREND OF GDP PER CAPITA
GDP per capita
Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Income statement 2010, Three years of Public Investment Plan 2012-2014 and NSDP 2009-2013 RGC, MoEF
Estimation NSDP 2009-
2013
I. Cambodia Economic Overview
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
19.80%
0.60%
4.00% 4.50%3.50% 3.00%
TREND OF ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Annual Inflation
Price of Goods Public Financial Mgt ‘Stable Macroeconomic environment Stable Exchange Rate
Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Income statement 2010, Three years of Public Investment Plan 2012-2014 and NDSP 2009-2013, MoP, RGC
Estimation NSDP 2009-
2013
High Price of oil, food and other commodities
I. Cambodia Economic Overview
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Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Income statement 2010, Three years of Public Investment Plan 2012-2014 and NDSP 2009-2013, MoP, RGC
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
15.70%
5.50% 5.00% 5.70% 5.60%4.00% 4.10% 4.20% 3.80% 3.70%
12.70%
18.30%
8.40%
4.00%
-9.50%
13.60%
9.20% 9.40% 9.90% 9.30%
13.10%
10.10% 10.10%9.00%
0.00%
3.30%
5.70% 5.70%7.10% 7.30%
AgricultureIndustryServices
COMPOSITION OF CAMBODIA ECONOMIC GROWTH & INDUSTRY SECTOR
Estimation Three Year –Public Investment Plan
2012-2014
I. Cambodia Economic Overview
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
9.20%
20.40%
10.00%
2.20%
-9.80%
18.50%
11.60% 11.20%11.20%
10.00%
TREND OF GDP GROWTH BY GARMENT FACTORY’s CONTRIBUTION
Garment Factory
Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Income statement 2010, Three years of Public Investment Plan 2012-2014 and NDSP 2009-2013, MoP, RGC
Estimation Three Year –Public Investment Plan
2012-2014
I. Cambodia Economic Overview
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II. Total Disbursement shared (1992-2011)
Source: Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC
22.50%
17.60%
10.20%9.40%6.60%
6.50%
5.90%
5.50%
4.90%
8.90%
Total 11.82 B US$
EUJapanADBNGOsUSAUNWBChinaAustraliaOther
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II. Total Disbursement & Used (1992-2011)
Source: Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC
16.90%
15.60%
13.10%
10.60%
9.40%
7.80%
6.90%
4.70%
3.20% 11.90%
Total 11.82 B US$
Health &HIVGov/AdmTransportEducationRural DevAgricCommunity/Social CultureEnergyOthers
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III. Public Investment-2012-2014
408 Projects (3,990 millions US$)
2014 (1,202 M$
2013 (1,353 M $)
2012 (1,435 M $)
INVESTMENT IN JOB CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT ????
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21801810
408 Projects of Cambodia In-vestment Rolling Plan 2012-2014
147 Projects ( Process)261 Projects (Need)
Budget Estimation
DPs RGC Sub-total
Available Fund
2,154 M$ 474 M$ 2,628 M$
Required Mobilization
1,361 M$
Total 3,990M$
III. Public Investment-2012-2014
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32%
24%21%
21%
Estimation Fund for Investment Program 2012-2014, Rolling Plan
Social SectorEconomic SectorInfrastructureService Sector
65%
35%
Proportion of Urban and Rural
Rural Urban
III. Public Investment-2012-2014
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12% 4%
12%
4%4%
4%
12%
4%
12%
4%4%
1%2%2%
4%
4%2% 8%
Need for Public Investment Program Rolling Plan 2012-2014
EducationVocational SkillsHealthSocial Protection Agriculture and Land mgtSeasonal Agr productionRural DevelopmentMineral & Business TransportationWater and SanitationEnergy and ElectricityTelecommunicationGender MainstreamingTourismEnvironmnent & ConservationCommunity and Social ServiceCulture and ArtAdmin and Governance
Public Investment-2012-2014
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IV. Recommendation-In Depth Reform
1993-1998 1999-2003 2004-2008 2010-2013
National reconciliation and Unification
Civil service management
Deepen reformNPAR
Institutionalization and Rule of LawNPAR
Paris Peace Agreement Law on common statute
of civil servants Sub-degree on
organization and functioning of ministries
Sub-degree on leave without pay
Sub-Decree on the General Principle of Civil Servants Management Procedures
Royal Decree on the General Principle of the Organization of the State Civil Service
17, 685 ghost civil servants
Supreme Councils of the state reform
CAR 5 years NPAR Around 10, 000 ghost
civil servant eliminated 21 categories of cadre
of civil servants Enumeration system MPG Average salary
increased from 19.5US$ to 28.1US$ ( 44.1% increased
NPAR 2004-2008 PMG HRP & HRD SOA Increased Salary Social Security Fund for
civil Servant
NPAR 2010-2013 HR Policy Making the
administration becomes more transparent, responsive and efficient
Improve values of service loyalty, motivation and professionalism
NPAR M&E framework and tools for oversight the implementation and enforcement of NPAR
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Goal:
Administration becomes an effective provider
of public service
Objectives1. Making the Administration
transparent, responsive and efficient
2. Improving values of service, loyalty, motivation and
professionalism
Transparency
Responsiveness Efficiency
Culture of service
Loyalty
Professionalism Motivation
VISION: SERVE PEOPLE
BETTER
IV. Recommendation-High Quality of public Services