Calculating emissions from road transport in Macedonia using the

COPERT 4 model

Igor TrpevskiUniversity of St. Cyril and Methodius Skopje,Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts

itrpevski@manu.edu.mk

Structure

• Motivation• Copert 4 background• Compiled input data• Results• Summary

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Motivation

• Air pollution in several cities in the country• No significant study for air pollution from

road transport• Significant increase in second-hand

vehicles since 2010 due to policy shift• Diesel cars number in 2012 triples from

2000

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Motivation

Imported vehicles

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

New 11927 8074 6739 5156 4101 4188 2284

Used 4224 (27%)

54445 (87%)

35788(84%)

30127(85%)

31056(88%)

30919(88%)

10996(82%)

Total 16151 62519 42527 35283 35157 35107 13280

Source: National Customs office* First 6 months

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Copert 4

• Calculates emissions of pollutants from road transport• major air pollutants (CO, NOx, VOC, PM, NH3, SO2, heavy metals)• greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4)

• Covers all vehicle categories• passenger cars, Light duty vehicles (LDV), Heavy

duty vehicles (HDV), two-wheelers (mopeds and motorcycles

• Subcategory by engine class, or weight of HDV5

Copert 4

• Also covers a lot of vehicle emissions technologies from PRE ECE to EURO 6

• Can be used to calculate emissions from 1970 - 2030

• Can be applied in all European countries

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Copert 4

• Compliant with the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook

• Tier 3 methodology - exhaust emissions are calculated using a combination of firm technical data (e.g. emission factors) and activity data (e.g. total vehicle km)

• Total emmissions = cold start + hot emmisions

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Copert 4 - Input data

• Activity data for fleet• Number of vehicles per vehicle category (very important)• Number of vehicles per sub-category• Distribution of the vehicle fleet into different exhaust emission

legislation classes (very important)• Mileage per vehicle class (very important)

• Driving conditions • Average speed and share in different driving modes – urban, rural

highway

• Other variables• Climatic conditions • Mean trip distance

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Fleet data

We started with … • Number of vehicles in 2012 per category and

fuel type (gasoline, diesel, LPG)• Passenger cars • Busses • Two-wheelers• Light duty vehicles• Heavy duty vehicles

• Road tractors • Agricultural vehicles

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Fleet data

• No emission technology data Used age distribution as a proxy for estimating emission technology in the vehicles

pre ECE vehicles

up to 1971

ECE 15 00 & 01

1972 to 1977

ECE 15 02 1978 to 1980

ECE 15 03 1981 to 1985

ECE 15 04 1985 to 1992

Euro 1 1992 to 1996

Euro 2 1996 to 2000

Euro 3 2000 to 2004

Euro 4 2005 to 2010

Euro 5 2010- 2012

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Fleet data

• For each vehicle category we have the number of vehicles produced dating back to 2000.

… before 2000 we know only the total sum• Most cars imported since 2010 were Euro 1 and Euro 2

i.e. production year before 2000• Higher uncertainty in these vehicles

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Fleet data

• Other gaps in the data included:• No engine capacity data • No weight categorization for HDV• Had to rely on homologation statistics which are

10~20% sample of the whole fleet• Mileage data was used from the FLEETS project

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Input data

• Trip length - 12km• Trip duration - 12 minutes• Average monthly temperatures from WMO• Fuel effect year - 2005

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Fuel balance

• After the first run Gasoline and LPG mileage were lowered to achieve fuel balance

Statistical (t) Calculated (t) Deviation (%)

Gasoline (fossil) 111708 112854.3 1.03

Diesel (fossil & bio) 296975 275510.75 -7.23

LPG 33082 33499.1 1.26

Data for statistical fuel consumption http://www.stat.gov.mk/pdf/2013/6.1.13.82.pdf14

Results PM10

Total 365.33 [t]

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Results PM10

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Results PM 2.5

Total 304.1 [t]

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Results PM 2.5

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Results CO2

Total - 1,382,793 [t]

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Results CO2 per vehicle type

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2012 vs 2030 diesel PC

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2012Type Emission technology NumberDiesel 1,4 - 2,0 l Conventional 6579Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 1 17543Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 2 19736Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 3 12976Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 4 10876Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 5 5274Diesel >2,0 l Conventional 731Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 1 1949Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 2 2193Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 3 1442Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 4 1208Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 5 587

2030Type Emission technology NumberDiesel 1,4 - 2,0 l Conventional 0Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 1 0Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 2 0Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 3 17886Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 4 15876Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 5 10184Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l PC Euro 6 18584Diesel >2,0 l Conventional 0Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 1 0Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 2 0Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 3 1987Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 4 1753Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 5 1132Diesel >2,0 l PC Euro 6 1618Hybrid 10542Electric 1621

2012 vs 2030 CO2 reduction

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CO2

Type 2012 CO2[t] 2030 CO2[t] % differenceDiesel 1,4 - 2,0 l 303247 267,200 -12 %Diesel > 2.0 41199 37,397 -9 %Hybrid 1,4 - 2,0 l 0 18594Hybrid > 2,0 l 0 2065

PM10Type 2012 PM10 [t] 2030 PM10 [t] % differenceDiesel 1,4 - 2,0 l 117.48 51.01 -56 %Diesel > 2.0 13.71 5.42 -61%

PM2.5Type 2012 PM2.5 [t] 2030 PM2.5 [t]Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l 102.3 36.25 -64%Diesel > 2.0 11.9 3.88 -67%

Source of electricity

Carbon intensity for Macedonia ~ 1300 gCO2/KWh

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Region Carbon Intensity gCO2/KWh

BMW i3 EV gCO2/km

BMW 116i Petrol gCO2/km

EU28 430 55 135

France 71 9.2 135

Poland 1100 142 135

Macedonia 1300 166 135

Summary

• Major source of pollution are recently imported Euro 1 and Euro 2 vehicles

• The trend of importing them continued through 2013 and 2014

• Shift in policy to stimulate replacement of older vehicles

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Thank you for your attention

Igor Trpevski,

itrpevski@manu.edu.mk

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