Bullion Weekly Technicals 28062011

8/6/2019 Bullion Weekly Technicals 28062011

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Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 28 June 2011

Technical OutlookBullion Weekly Technicals


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1Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 28 June 2011

Technical Outlook

Has slipped through the 2010-2011 uptrend line at 34.38 and targets the 32.30/31.29 zone.Spot Silver:

Trades within the 43.54/45.26 resistance area but nears the 200 day moving average at 45.77.Gold/Silver Ratio:

Now trades below the 55- and 200-day moving averages and drops towards the 700 region.Palladium:

Should retest the March low at 1654 which is expected to give way, though. Eyes 1614/1600.Platinum:

The key week reversal in May has been repeated in June with the 1442.70 level now being eyed.Spot Gold:

Short term view (1-3 weeks)Market

Precious metals continue to look top heavy and should slide further still


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Silver versus Palladium, Platinum and GoldAll four precious metals are now on the descending path

Platinum -4.67%

Palladium -8.98%

Gold +5.43%

Silver +9.31%

2011 performance so far


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Spot Gold

Spot Gold Daily Chart

Breakdown targets the 50% retracement at 1442.70

Spot gold has dropped through the 2011 uptrend line at1532.29 last week and now also trades below the 55 daymoving average at 1516.54.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this years advance at1474.54 and the May trough at 1462.10 are now beingtargeted and should be fallen through in the weeks ahead.

The 50% retracement of the 2011 advance at 1442.70 isour medium term downside target for the second half of theyear. Further down lurks the 200 day moving average at

1416.82, together with the 2008-11 uptrend line at 1405.93,both of which may well be hit in the months to come.

Minor resistance above the 55 day moving average at1516.54 is seen along the breached 2011 uptrend line at1532.29 and in the 1550/1558.75 region which is wherelast weeks high and subsequent reversal lower was made.

We are now short- and medium-term bearish.

1-Week View

1550/1558.751442.7&1416.8

1516.5&1532.31474.54/1462.1

1-Month ViewResistanceSupport

Downside targets are seen

at 1462.10 and 1442.70


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Spot Gold Weekly Chart

Key week reversal in May has been repeated in JuneSpot Gold

Long term negative divergence points to a top being formed; the

Elliott wave count also highlights the May high as a fifth of a fifthwave, meaning that a major correction lower should now ensue.

Bearish reversal weekreinforces downward thrust


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Spot Silver

Spot Silver Daily Chart

Should soon drop through its May low at 32.30

Spot silver is heading towards May low at 32.30, havingdropped through its long term uptrend line at 34.38 thisweek.

The May low, together with the 200 day moving average at31.89 and the January 31.29 high should offer interimsupport, however.

Once slid through, the early December high at 30.74 andthe psychological 30.00 level will be on the map.

Failure here would push the January trough at 26.36 backto the fore.

Resistance is now seen along the breached 2010-11uptrend line at 34.38 and at the 61.8% Fibonacciretracement of the 2011 advance at 35.40 as well as at lastweeks 36.80 high point. Whilst trading below here, our

short- and medium-term outlook will remain decidedlybearish.

1-Week View

36.80&37.9030.74&30.00

34.38&35.4032.30/31.29


Targets the 32.30/31.29 support area


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Spot Silver

Spot Silver Weekly Chart

Has now slipped through the 2010-2011 uptrend line at 34.38

Uptrend line has been breached


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Gold/Silver Ratio

Gold/Silver Ratio Daily Chart

Nears the 200 day moving average at 45.77

The gold/silver ratio has now reached the 43.54/45.26resistance area (2006 trough and December 2006 low asseen on the following page) and, once overcome, should

head to the 200 day moving average at 45.77. Ifsurpassed, this will void our long term bearish forecast.

Above it remain the 45.93 December 2010 low and stillfurther up the 46.67 February 2007 low and the 47.46March 2008 trough.

Slips should find support either around the 42.50 zone from

where it rose this week or at the 41.09 early June low oreven at the next lower 39.865/71 support zone where thelate May low and the 55 day moving average both cometogether (the latter area is not expected to be revisited,however).

While trading above the latter, our short- and medium-term

forecasts will remain bullish.

1-Week View

46.67&47.4639.865/71

45.26/9342.50&41.09


Is about to reach the 200 day moving average at 45.77


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Gold/Silver Ratio

Gold/Silver Ratio Monthly Chart

Now trades within the 43.54/45.26 resistance area

Retests the 43.54/45.26 resistance area


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Palladium

Palladium Daily Chart

Drops towards the 700 region

1-Week View

800.00/804.75697.50&686.50

756.09&775.25706.57&700.00


Palladium has slid through the 200 day moving average at734.63 and the 726.50 April low and is thus on its way tothe next lower 700.00/697.50 support zone. It consists of a

psychological level and the May low. Either in this supportarea or around the next lower 686.50 March low theprecious metal should once more find support, though.

If not, the major top formation scenario we have beenhinting at for the past few months will come to fruitionwith the 55 week moving average at 667.90, the 50%retracement of the May 2010 to February 2011 advance at

630.55 and the July 2009-to-2011 uptrend line at 618.93then being in focus (see weekly chart on following page).

We will hold onto this longer term bearish outlook as longas the 825.50/828.00 resistance zone (March peak andmid-January highs) caps. Below it resistance is found alongthe 55 day moving average at 756.09, at the 775.25 June

22nd

high and at 800.00/804.75, the meeting point of apsychological level with April high.

Trades below its 55- and 200-day moving averages

Target zone is found at 700/686.50


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PalladiumShould soon reach the 55 week moving average at 667.90

Palladium Weekly Chart

Targets are seen around the 700 level and at 667.90


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Platinum

Platinum Daily Chart

Should soon retest the March low at 1654 which is expected to give way, though

1-Week View

1759.2/1562.81614/1600

1737.51654&1623


Platinum is getting ever closer to the 1654 March low andthe 1623 November low. Both levels are expected to bereached this or next week and, once fallen through, the

next lower 1614/1600 zone (June and August 2010 highsand psychological 1600 mark) should be in play.

Here the precious metals decline is likely to stall, at leasttemporarily, however.

If slipped through, the 1514.50 November 2009 high andthe 200 week moving average at 1509.11 will be targeted

over the coming months.

Minor resistance lurks around the 1737.5 May low withmore resistance being found at 1759.18/1562.76. This iswhere the 200 day moving average and the breacheduptrend line are both found.

While trading below the next higher 55 day moving averageat 1792.61, our outlook will stay bearish.

The March lowsits at 1654


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PlatinumUptrend line break means that the March low at 1654 and then the 1614/1600 area are in view

Platinum Weekly Chart

Is to drop through the March low at 1654


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PlatinumHas broken out of its long term uptrend channel

Platinum Monthly Chart

Uptrend channel support line has been breached


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Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes;

Tuesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX);

Wednesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), technical contribution to the Emerging Markets Bi-Weekly;

Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.


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Karen JonesHead of FICC Technical Analysis

Tel. +44 207 475 1425

Mail [email protected]

ZentraleKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Mainwww.commerzbank.de

Postfachanschrift60261 Frankfurt am MainTel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]

Axel RudolphSenior Technical Analyst

Tel. +44 207 475 5721

Mail [email protected]

Bullion Weekly Technicals 28062011

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Transcript of Bullion Weekly Technicals 28062011