Bullion Weekly Technicals 04122012

7/29/2019 Bullion Weekly Technicals 04122012

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Technical Analysis Research

Axel Rudolph

+44 207 475 [email protected]

Technical OutlookBullion Weekly Technicals

Tuesday, 04 December 2012


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04 December 2012 1

Technical Outlook

Market Short term view (1-3 weeks)

Gold: We will remain bullish while the precious metal stays above the 1672.50 November low.

Gold in Euros: Our short term view has been neutralised by last weeks drop but medium term we remain bullish.

Gold in Swiss Franc: Last weeks drop has neutralised our short term view but we remain medium term bullish.

Silver: Is taking a short term breather but still targets the 35.47 October peak.

Gold/Silver Ratio: Retests the 50.98/84 support area but still eyes the psychological 50.00 mark.

Palladium: Is about to revisit the psychological 700 region and the 705.25 September high.

Platinum: Still flirts with the 55 day moving average at 1613.36 while bullish momentum persists.

While other precious metals have entered minor corrective phases, palladium continues to rally


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04 December 2012 2

Silver, Platinum, Gold and Palladium

Palladium continues its up surge while other precious metals are giving back some recent gains

Platinum +13.99%

Palladium +4.46%

Gold +8.94%

Silver +19.78%

2012 performance to date


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04 December 2012 3

Gold - Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart

We will remain bullish while the precious metal stays above the 1672.50 November low

Golds November rally has stalled with it having slippedback from its 1754.75 November high to 1699.27 so far.

We will retain our bullish view, however, while the

November low, 200 day moving average and 50%retracement of the May-to-October rise at 1672.50/1661.64underpins on a daily closing basis. Support above this levelcan be seen around the 1698.52 late October low.

Medium term upside targets continue to reside between the11 October high at 1775.21 and the psychological 1800level. The latter region is where the gold price stalled onthree separate occasions in the past year.

This still remains in focus and, once overcome, the 1900region and the all-time high around the 1921.50 level willbe back in play.

Failure at 1672.50/1661.64 would push the J une high at1641.01 back to the fore, though.

Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View

1698.5&1672.5 1732.1/1739.1

1661.87/64 1746.4/1754.7

November low can be seen at 1672.50


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04 December 2012 4

Gold Weekly Chart

Has slipped back to the 1700 region which is expected to offer support

Gold - Weekly Chart

Revisits the 1700 mark


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Gold in Euros - Daily Chart

Gold in Euros Daily Chart

Our short term view has been neutralised by last weeks drop but medium term we remain bullish

Gold in Euros recent slide has taken it back to the1303.95/1293.62 support area which consists of theNovember low, 200 day moving average and 50%retracement of the May-to-October advance. Here we

expect it to find hold on a daily closing basis, though.

Should this not be the case, we will have to temporarilyabandon our medium term bullish forecast.

We expect gold in euros to soon rise again with the 55 daymoving average at 1345.61 and the three month resistanceline at 1355.52 remaining in focus, provided that no dailyclose below 1293.62 is being made, though.

In this scenario the 1281.43 August low will be back in sightinstead.

Once the current all-time high has been bettered, the 1395vertical 15 X 3 daily Point & Figure target as well as thepsychological 1400 mark will be in focus.


1303.9/1293.6 1331.1/1335.1

1281.4&1271.1 1345.6/1355.5

200 day moving average is at 1299.06


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04 December 2012 6

Gold in Swiss Francs - Daily Chart

Gold in Euros Daily Chart

Last weeks drop has neutralised our short term view but we remain medium term bullish

Gold in Swiss Francs has made a three month low at1570.37 today, thus neutralising our short term forecast.

While the next lower 200 day moving average at 1564.24

and the 50% retracement of the May-to-October high at1559.69 underpin on a daily closing basis, however, we willmaintain our medium term bullish outlook with theNovember high at 1648.79 being in focus.

Above it lurks the all-time high at 1680.20. Once it hasbeen overcome, the psychological 1700 region will be inplay and also the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the May-to-October rise, projected higher from the November low, at1721.50.

In case of a drop through 1559.69 being seen, the Augusttrough at 1539.08 will be eyed as well as the 50%

retracement of the May-to-October advance at 1531.25.


1564.2/1559.7 1603.3/1607.4

1539.1/1531.2 1625.3/1630.4

200 day moving average is seen at 1564.24


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04 December 2012 7

Silver - Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart

Is taking a short term breather but still targets the 35.47 October peak

The silver price briefly dropped to 32.89 in late Novemberbefore heading back up to but being capped by the 78.6%Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-November declineat 34.43.

Once 34.43 has been bettered, though, the October peakat 35.47 will be in the view again and then the minorpsychological 36.00 level as well.

Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while thelate November low at 32.89 holds on a daily closing basis.It may well be revisited this week, however, while the minorcorrective phase we are in at the moment runs its course.

Further minor support can be seen around the 1 Novemberhigh at 32.73.

While the next lower mid-November low at 32.03underpins, we will retain our medium term bullish forecast.


32.89&32.53 34.43&35.16

32.03&31.48 35.47&36.00

78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 34.43 capped


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04 December 2012 8

Silver - Weekly Chart

Silver Weekly Chart

Is being capped by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 34.43

Redrawn 2011-12 resistance line is at 34.24


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04 December 2012 9

Gold/Silver Ratio - Daily Chart

Gold/Silver Ratio Daily Chart

Retests the 50.98/84 support area but still eyes the psychological 50.00 mark

The gold/silver ratios descent to 50.36 was followed by aminor bounce to 51.29 before it dropped back into the50.98/84 support zone which is made up of the Septemberand October lows.

Failure here and at the 50.36 November low will open theway for the April low at 50.29 and the 50 mark to bereached.

Minor resistance remains to be seen between the 12September high at 51.97 and the 8 October high point at52.20.

Further resistance can be found along the 55 day movingaverage at 52.32.

We will retain our bearish forecast while the index stays

below the next higher 53.10 16 November high. In case ofan unexpected rise above this level being seen, the 200day moving average at 53.96 would be back in play.


50.98/84 51.97/52.20

50.36/29&50.00 52.32&53.10

Good support sits at 50.98/84


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04 December 2012 10

Palladium - Daily Chart

Palladium Daily Chart

Is about to revisit the psychological 700 region and the 705.25 September high


660.43&647.50 700.0/705.25

639.06/632.30 725.50

Palladiums rally is ongoing with it having so far risen abovethe 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the last three monthsdecline at 680.14 en route to the psychological 700 leveland the 705.25 September high.

We will retain our immediately bullish view while theprecious metals trades above its late November low at647.50.

Only unexpected failure here would push the 55- and 200-day moving averages at 639.10/632.31 back to the fore.

Our medium term bullish view will remain valid while thepalladium price stays above the 603.24 mid-November low.

78.6% Fibonacciretracement is at 680.14


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04 December 2012 11

Palladium - Weekly Chart

Still targets the psychological 700 regionPalladium Weekly Chart

2012 high is at 725.50


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04 December 2012 12

Platinum - Daily Chart

Platinum Daily Chart

Still flirts with the 55 day moving average at 1613.36 while bullish momentum persists

Platinum remains within its one month uptrend channel andtargets the November high at 1628.

We expect to soon see a daily chart close above the 55

day moving average at 1613.36 being made. A similarlybullish daily close above the November peak at 1628 willchange our medium term view back to being bullish.

We will keep our short term bullish forecast while majorsupport at 1545.95/1525 underpins. The 200 day movingaverage as well as several daily lows can be found here.

Should it be fallen through, however, the 1510.50/1492.00significant support area will be in view. This is where the

J une and J uly highs, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ofthe J uly-to-October rally and the late August low all cometogether.

An eventual rise above the 18 October high at 1679.00 willconfirm our anticipated trend reversal higher.


1571.45 1628.0&1650.0

1545.95/1525.0 1679.0&1700.0

55 day moving average is at 1613.36


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04 December 2012 13

Platinum - Weekly Chart

Continues to bounce off the 200 week moving average at 1544.15Platinum Weekly Chart

200 week moving average is seen at 1544.15


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Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Strategic Technical Themes, FX Emerging Markets Technicals;

Tuesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX);

Wednesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly, Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Asian Currencies Weekly Technicals, FX Strategy;

Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.


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Karen JonesHead of FICC Technical Analysis

Tel. +44 207 475 1425

Mail [email protected]

ZentraleKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Main

www.commerzbank.de

Postfachanschrift60261 Frankfurt am Main

Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]

Axel RudolphSenior Technical Analyst

Tel. +44 207 475 5721

Mail [email protected]

Bullion Weekly Technicals 04122012

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