Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st - 25th February '11)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st - 25th February '11)

1/8

Weekly Report

Commodity2 1 s t F e b r u a r y - 2 6 t h F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 1

www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited

WEEKLY

Precious Metals Continues Uptrend

On Middle East Crisis !


2/8

2 | www.capitalvia.com

Weekly Report

Commodity

Economic Data

Capitalvia Global Research Limited

10:00am

All Day

All Industries Activity m/m

Bank Holiday

JPY

USD

7:30pm

8:30pm

8:30pm

11:30pm

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

CB Consumer Confidence

Richmond Manufacturing Index

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

TueFeb 22

60.6

18

5:20am

5:20am

8:30pm

Trade Balance

CSPI y/y

Existing Home Sales

JPY

JPY

USD

WedFeb 23

-1.3%

5.28M

0.71T

-1.6%

-0.1%

-1.3%

5.30M

0.70T

61.5

17

-2.1%

0.1%

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

12:00am

7:00pm

7:00pm

8:30pm

9:00pm

9:30pm

8:30pm

7:00pm

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Durable Goods Orders m/m

OFHEO HPI m/m

Natural Gas Storage

Crude Oil Inventories

New Home Sales

Unemployment Claims

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

ThuFeb 24

0.8%

-2.3%

329K

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.4%

3.2%

0.3%

75.1

3.4%

-233B

0.9M

410K405K

2.4%

330K

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.3%

3.3%

0.3%

75.1

75.1

0.4%

5:00am

5:00am

7:00pm

7:00pm

8:25pm

8:25pm

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

National Core CPI y/y

Prelim GDP q/q

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

JPY

JPY

USD

USD

USD

USD

FriFeb 25

MonFeb 21

12:00am FOMC Member Yellen SpeaksJPYSatFeb 26


3/8

Weekly Report

Commodity

Fundamental Market Overview

3 | www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited

Gold rose above $1,390 an ounce on Friday, notching its best weekly performance since December, underpinned by fears over a European debt crisis, rising

inflation and growing unrest in the Middle East. Bullion's gains sparked strong investment buying in silver, which soared to 31-year high, further widening silver's

gains over Gold and sending the Gold-silver ratio to its lowest level in 13 years. Gold also benefits as a safe haven as worries about the political stability of the region

have flared this week, with unrest spreading after protests in Tunisia and Egypt unseated leaders there. Spot Gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,386.75, having earlier hit a

five-week high of $1,391.75. Bullion has risen in the five straight sessions, the longest streak since September. It gained almost 3 percent for the week. U.S. Gold

futures for April delivery settled up $3.50 at $1,388.60 an ounce, with volume about 50 percent below its 30-day norm. That was in line with recent lower-than-

normal turnover, a possible sign of dwindling trading interest. Silver gained 2.1 percent to $32.42 after hitting a high of $32.86, its strongest level since 1980.

Silver's rise was driven by short-term speculation and buying related to option hedging strategies, as the backdrop of an improving economy lifted the industrial

metal. Investment demand for the largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund iShares Silver Trust has also shown signs of stabilizing after hefty outflows last

month. Barclays Capital said in a note it expects silver to continue to outperform Gold, with silver trading as high as $37 an ounce.

CHINA'S TIGHTENING IGNORED

Gold initially pared gains after China said it was raising lenders' reserve requirements by 50 basis points but remained firmly underpinned by investment interest in

precious metals. Gold buying spiked this week after data showed U.S. core consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in January, the fastest pace in more than a year,

indicating a long period of slowing inflation had run its course. Earlier this week, strong Chinese core inflation had also boosted Gold.

GOLD NOTCHES BEST WEEKLY GAIN SINCE DECEMBER

CRUDE EDGES DOWN, BUT MIDEAST STAYS IN FOCUS

Copper ended firm on Friday after another round of monetary tightening in China failed to surprise bullish traders who held their bets on healthier demand

prospects for industrial metals this year. China raised bank reserve requirements by 50 basis points, showing no let-up in a campaign to stamp out stubbornly high

inflation. Sensitive to demand from a country accounting for nearly 40 percent of estimated global consumption this year, copper prices initially fell on the news.

Losses were limited and prices bounced back into positive territory as traders weighed longer-term considerations. London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month

Copper closed up $58 at $9,860 a tonne, a little more than 3 percent away from its all-time record of $10,190. COMEX copper for March delivery eased 0.20 cent

to settle at $4.4820 per lb, extending a phase of consolidation from Tuesday's record of $4.6495.

RALLY NOT OVER

Copper is widely expected to build on its nearly uninterrupted rally in the second half of 2010 as ore grades decline, new mines remain scarce and top buyer Chinagrows.

COPPER STOCKS AT SIX-MONTH HIGH

A 725-tonne build in LME Copper stocks placed them at a six-month high at 407,925 tonnes. This follows weekly data from China showing copper inventories

rose 11.7 percent from last Friday.

COPPER ENDS FIRM, DISCOUNTS CHINA RATE MOVE

U.S. Crude oil futures ended lower in volatile trading on Friday in a bout of profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of a three-day holiday weekend. Late

liquidations ahead of NYMEX front-month March Crude's expiration on Tuesday snuffed out gains spurred by pre-weekend short-covering. But persistent worries

that the unrest in Middle East and North Africa could disrupt oil supplies from those regions kept investors cautious and helped limit the day's losses. Near midday,Crude futures extended gains on news that Egypt had approved the passage of two Iranian warships through the Suez Canal, a move that Israel's foreign minister

had described as a "provocation." Much earlier, a move by China requiring lenders to raise reserves to a record level, a further step to curb high inflation, helped

pressure prices.

FUNDAMENTALS

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for March delivery settled at $86.20 a barrel, down 16 cents, or 0.19 percent, after trading from $85.65 to $87.88.

For the week, front-month Crude rose 62 cents or 0.72 percent, rising for the first time in three weeks. Money managers cut net long Crude futures positions in the

week to Feb. 15 to 163,670, from 178,432 the week before, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. China raised banks' required reserves by 50 basis

points to a record 19.5 percent, showing no let-up in a drive to curb inflation. It was the fifth rise since October. Bahraini security forces fired on protesters,

wounding more than 60, as crackdowns on pro-democracy unrest buffeting the Middle East and North Africa turned increasingly violent.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS

American Petroleum Institute weekly oil inventory report, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT), delayed a day due to President's Day holiday on

Monday.

U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly oil inventory data. Thursday, Feb. 24, 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT).


4/8

GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustain above

the level of 1350 and able to sustain it. In the coming week 1340$ will act as a major

support in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1350$ an ounce then above 1405 $

an ounce it can touch the level of 1430$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below

1340$ then it can slightly correct and test the level of 1310$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1350$ an ounce, then above 1405$ it can test the level of 1430$ an ounce and above

1430$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1340$ and 1310$.

Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1425$ and 1450$

Major support in MCX Gold is 19900and 19500

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 20850 and 21050

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver sustained above

3000$. For the upcoming week 2870$ and 2750$ are the crucial supports and 3300$ and

3400$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 51000and 53000 will act as

major resistance and 45300and 42700 will act as major supports.

Market Overview

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver sustained above

3000$. For the upcoming week 2870$ and 2750$ are the crucial supports and 3300$ and

3400$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 51000and 53000 will act as

major resistance and 45300and 42700 will act as major supports.

Strategy


1454 1416 1402 1378 1364 1340

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1302

Script

Levels

3792 3484 3373 3176 3065 2868


2560

Script

Levels

Weekly Report

Commodity

Technical Analysis



5/8

CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward consolidation phase. Last week in Crude oil we saw some

buying coming at lower levels and closed near to its weekly high. For the coming week

83.50$ will act as major support and 93.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance. In MCX

Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4250 and 4380 and major supports will be 3800 and

3675.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 83.50 $ a barrel then above 88.25 $ it can slightly come up and touch the

level of 90.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4025 Crude oil can touch the level of 4100 if it

sustains above 3900. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was in a bearish trend but we saw good profit

booking on the last two days of the week. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the

level of 441 then above the level of 455 Copper can test the level of 462. In MCX Copper

above 453 Copper can test the level of 460 if it does not break the level of 440 on the

downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 460 and 470 will act as major resistance and 440 and 428 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 460 and 472

and supports would be found at 439 and 427.

Strategy


94.04 90.01 88.10 85.98 84.07 81.95


77.92

Script

Levels

498.20 474.80 461.25 451.40 437.85 428.00


404.60

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



6/8

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on

higher levels. Last week Natural Gas closed near to its weekly low. If next week Natural Gas

does not sustains above the level of 4. 150$ then below the level of 3.780$ Natural Gas can

test the level of 3.650 $ and above 4.275$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the level

of 4.370$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below 173 in the coming week then it can test

the level of 165, if it does not break the level of 201 on the upside

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 165 and 150.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 45.0000 then above the level of

45.5000 USD/INR can test the level of 46.0000 and below 45.0000USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 44.8300.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 44.5000 and 43.8000 will act as major supports and 46.4000 and

47.1000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy


4.243 4.071 3.974 3.899 3.802 3.727


3.555

Script

Levels

46.2670 45.7670 45.4330 45.2670 44.9330 44.7670


44.2670

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



7/8

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1388.6 2.07

SILVER 3262 8.75

COPPER 448.2 -1.19

CRUDE 86.2 0.72

NATURAL GAS 3.876 -0.87

USD/INR 45.1 -1.10

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

NATURAL GAS 28-MAR-11 177 -2.96

COPPER 28- FEB-11 445.45 -2.94

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 5-APR-11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 20340 20325 2028220599 20548 138054 14205 2793468208

Silver MCX 5-MAR-11 Silver RS./ KG. 45480 45420 4534748919 48538 395677 19640 54993393058

Copper MCX 28- FEB-11 Copper RS./ KG. 458.95 459.15 441.45465.45 445.45 572439 24173 2582186-13.5

Crude Oil MCX 21- FEB-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4091 4093 39874130 4072 179824 13908 717192.5-19

Natural Gas MCX 28-MAR-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 182.4 182.7 176.1186.3 177 29736 7624 66364.52-5.4

Lead MCX 28- FEB-11 Lead RS./ KG. 118.4 118.35 116.15121.9 119.65 120543 3117 7163161.25

Zinc MCX 28- FEB-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 112.6 112.7 111.2115.2 114 137298 4169 774766.71.4

Aluminum MCX 28- FEB-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 114.1 114.2 111.8114.8 114.5 28314 0.4 1842 160084.1

Nickel MCX 28- FEB-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1294.2 1295 12691323.3 1314.2 280269 9834 907742.120

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

SILVER 05-APR-11 48538 6.72

NICKEL 28- FEB-11 1314.2 1.55


Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity


ZINC 28- FEB-11 114.00 1.24

CRUDE OIL 21-MAR-11 4072 -0.46

*

* Turnover Till Friday


8/8

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

21111.00

54746.00

498.78

4349.33

200.17

130.72

121.43

1410.87

119.68

20794.00

51174.00

474.78

4206.33

189.97

124.97

117.43

1356.57

116.68

20477.00

47602.00

450.78

4063.33

179.77

119.22

113.43

1302.27

113.68

20355.00

46285.00

436.12

3996.67

173.23

116.53

111.67

1281.23

112.57

20160.00

44030.00

418.97

3920.33

169.57

113.47

109.43

1247.97

110.68

19843.00

40458.00

402.78

3777.33

159.37

107.72

105.43

1193.67

107.68

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Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity

R2

20672.00

49857.00

460.12

4139.67

183.43

122.28

115.67

1335.53

115.57

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Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st - 25th February '11)

Documents

Transcript of Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st - 25th February '11)