Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (11th – 15th April ‘11)
Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (14th - 18th February '11)
Transcript of Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (14th - 18th February '11)
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Weekly Report
Commodity1 4 t h F e b r u a r y - 1 9 t h F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 1
www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited
WEEKLY
Metals Rises on Positive
Sentiments !
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2 | www.capitalvia.com
Weekly Report
Commodity
Economic Data
Capitalvia Global Research Limited
14th-18th
8:30pm
Mortgage Delinquencies
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD
USD
7:00pm
7:00pm
7:00pm
7:00pm
7:30pm
8:30pm
8:30pm
Core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Import Prices m/m
TIC Long-Term Purchases
Business Inventories m/m
NAHB Housing Market Index
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Tue
Feb 15
0.6%
11.9
1.1%
85.1B
0.2%
16
9.13%
7:00pm
7:00pm
7:00pm
7:00pm
7:45pm
9:00pm
Building Permits
PPI m/m
Core PPI m/m
Housing Starts
Industrial Production m/m
Crude Oil Inventories
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Wed
Feb 16
1.1%
0.2%
0.53M
0.8%
1.9M
0.57M
0.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.55M
0.6%
0.57M
0.5%
14.4
0.9%
91.3B
0.7%
16
0.6%
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous
12:30am
7:00pm
7:00pm
8:30pm
8:30pm
9:00pm
11:00pm
8:30pm
7:00pm
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Core CPI m/m
CPI m/m
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
CB Leading Index m/m
Natural Gas Storage
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Unemployment Claims
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Thu
Feb 17
0.1%
0.5%
19.3
1.0%
-209B
383K401K
0.4%
20.8
0.4%
0.2%
Day 1
6:30pm
G20 Meetings
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
ALL
ALL
Fri
Feb 18
Mon
Feb 14
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Weekly Report
Commodity
Fundamental Market Overview
3 | www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited
Gold retreated below $1,360 an ounce on Friday after the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak following weeks of protest took some heat out of risk
aversion. Despite the decline, bullion posted its second consecutive weekly gain as fears that Egypt's unrest would spread across the Arab world had put a floor on
Gold prices. Mubarak, the second Arab leader to be overthrown by a popular uprising in a month, handed power to the army after 18 days of relentless rallies
against poverty, corruption and repression caused support from the armed forces to evaporate. Spot Gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,357.95 an ounce, having earlier
risen to a three-week high of $1,368.16. U.S. Gold futures for April delivery settled down $2.1 at $1,360.4. Futures trading volume was 40 percent below its 30-day
average, in line with lower turnover during the week. Some traders said dwindling volume could signal waning investor interest in gold. Gold was weakened further
after data showed stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment, which rose to an eight-month high in early February. Gold fell 6 percent in January after a run
of well-received U.S. data and easing worries about Europe's debt crisis shifted investor focus onto assets seen as higher-risk, but its slide has been arrested this
month.
Investment demand for Gold remained soft, with holdings of the world's largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, easing nearly a
tonne on Thursday. They are down just over 55 tonnes so far this year. In the same period of 2010, they fell around 27 tonnes. "Consistent offloading by ETFs, who
were pivotal in taking the metal beyond $1,400, and lackluster physical demand, are the key bearish forces curbing sustained gains". Premiums for Gold bars were
steady in Hong Kong and Singapore, with no signs of buying interest from China after the Lunar New Year celebration. There was hardly any physical buying in Asia
related to unrest in Egypt.
ETF DEMAND STAYS SOFT
Gold retreats after Mubarak resigns; support seen
U.S. oil prices fell to a 10-week low on Friday after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down and handed over power to the army. Mubarak's departure
came after 18 days of mass protests that had raised concern about potential for supply disruptions and a spread of the turmoil to major oil producers in the region
and had helped push ICE Brent crude futures above $100 a barrel for the first t ime since 2008. U.S. Crude futures for March delivery fell $1.15 to settle at $85.58 a
barrel, the lowest close in 10 weeks and off 3.89 percent on the week, the biggest weekly percentage loss since the week to Nov. 19. Money managers increased
their net long Crude futures positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week to Tuesday, as Egypt's protests raged, according to a Commodity Futures
Trading Commission report released late on Friday. In addition to the unrest in the region, OPEC producers have been subject to calls to boost production on
concerns that oil prices above $100 a barrel will stifle the global economic recovery. But, so far, OPEC officials have resisted calls for an emergency meeting to
address high prices and output targets. Monthly reports from both the International Energy Agency and OPEC this week showed higher production from the OPEC
nations, but they expected global demand to keep rising.
OPTIMISM ABOUT THE ECONOMY
U.S. Consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in eight months in early February, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of
Consumers and in a separate survey, the U.S. economy and jobs market were seen growing more strongly in the first quarter than previously expected. U.S. stocks
rose as Egypt's clearer political picture lifted investor sentiment. A stronger dollar can curb dollar-denominated oil prices because consumers using other
currencies must pay more for the commodity and the value of dollars paid to producers is higher.
US Oil falls to 10-wk low as Mubarak steps down
Copper bounced from a near two-week low to end a shade higher on Friday, as broader market sentiment gradually improved after news of the resignation of
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak handed power over to the army, ending three decades of autocratic rule, and bowing to escalating pressure from the
military and protesters demanding he goes. Copper's turnaround tracked a similar reversal in world equity markets, as Mubarak's departure was seen partially
reviving investors' appetite for risk. "The markets are saying Egypt may not be as big a risk at this point." London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper for three-month
delivery ended $10 higher at $9,961 a tonne, up from an earlier session low at $9,838, its lowest level since Feb. 1. As a result, the price now sits just $100 below
Monday's record peak at $10,160. COMEX March Copper eased 0.75 cent to settle at $4.5360 per lb, near the upper end of its $4.4810 to $4.5795 session range,
and about 10 cents below its own record peak at $4.6375. Backed by widespread expectations of robust global demand growth this year against a backdrop of
falling production, Copper prices have managed to remain buoyant, even as profit-taking pressures mounted this week. "We are seeing a lot of volume come in
and accumulating a lot of positions at these levels. To me, it seems like an entrenched long-side that is going to hold these trades out for a while." Indeed, at
around 51,300 lots by 1900 GMT, COMEX volumes stood about 40 percent above the 30-day average. But worries about the near-term demand outlook in China
lingered after the world's top Copper consumer raised interest rates on Tuesday in an effort to rein in inflation.
Underscoring Copper's demand worries, Shanghai stockpiles rose nearly 10,000 tonnes to 144,197 tonnes, latest weekly data showed. Stocks of Copper in LMEwarehouses fell 225 tonnes to 396,725 tonnes, but a recent trend of rising stocks has raised some concerns about the demand outlook. Stocks of aluminum fell
2,325 tonnes but were just 41,300 tonnes off a record high of 4,640,750 tonnes hit on Jan. 20, 2010. Vast amounts of the metal used in transport and packaging
have been tied up under cheap rent and financing deals, where metal holders profit if prices rise faster than storage costs.
INVENTORY SIGNALS
Copper ends up after Egypt's Mubarak steps down
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CRUDE OIL
NYMEX Crude is in upward consolidation phase. Last week in Crude oil was not sustained
at higher levels and closed near to its weekly low. For the coming week 82.50$ will act as
major support and 93.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major
resistance is found at 4250 and 4380 and major supports will be 3800 and 3675.
Market Overview
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains
above the level of 83.50 $ a barrel then above 88.25 $ it can slightly come up and touch the
level of 90.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4025 Crude oil can touch the level of 4100 if it
sustains above 3900. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.
Strategy
COPPER
Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper neither sustained on higher levels nor at lower
levels. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 462 then above the level of
464 Copper can test the level of 470. In MCX Copper above 465 Copper can test the level of
471 if it does not break the level of 447 on the downside.
Market Overview
For the upcoming week 475 and 485 will act as major resistance and 444 and 433 will act as
major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 470 and 480
and supports would be found at 450 and 440.
Strategy
Capitalvia Global Research Limited
95.62 91.18 88.38 86.74 83.94 82.30
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
77.86
Script
Levels
486.450 470.80 462.20 455.15 446.55 439.50
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
423.85
Script
Levels
Technical Analysis
Weekly Report
Commodity
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NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on
higher levels. Last week Natural Gas closed near to its weekly low. If next week Natural Gas
does not sustains above the level of 4. 280$ then below the level of 3.850$ Natural Gas can
test the level of 3.720 $ and above 4.275$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the level
of 4.370$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below 174 in the coming week then it can test
the level of 165, if it does not break the level of 201 on the upside.
Market Overview
For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and
5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance
would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 165 and 150.
Strategy
USD / INR
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 45.0000 then above the level of
46.0100 USD/INR can test the level of 46.3500 and below 45.0000USD/INR can slightly go
down and test the level of 44.8300.
Market Overview
For the upcoming week 44.5000 and 43.8000 will act as major supports and 46.4000 and
47.1000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.
Strategy
Capitalvia Global Research Limited
4.784 4.405 4.158 4.026 3.779 3.647
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
3.268
Script
Levels
46.8870 46.1870 45.8930 45.4870 45.1930 44.7870
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
44.0870
Script
Levels
Technical Analysis
Weekly Report
Commodity
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WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY
GOLD 1360.4 0.85
SILVER 2999.5 3.22
COPPER 453.6 -0.95
CRUDE 85.58 -3.88
NATURAL GAS 3.91 -9.28
USD/INR 45.6 0.09
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change
WEEKLY LOOSERS
NATURAL GAS 23- FEB-11 177 -10.43
CRUDE OIL 21- FEB-11 3905 -4.48
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
Gold MCX 5-APR-11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 20270 20209 2011620498 20340 153603 14114 308031570
Silver MCX 5-MAR-11 Silver RS./ KG. 44516 44498 4431746144 45480 374835 19738 5070742964
Copper MCX 28- FEB-11 Copper RS./ KG. 464.5 464.8 451.6466.2 458.95 476768 27522 2169590-5.55
Crude Oil MCX 21- FEB-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4088 4085 38964085 3905 955958 42089 3785034-183
Natural Gas MCX 23- FEB-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 197.6 197.1 175.7197.1 177 160826 18368 367352.5-20.6
Lead MCX 28- FEB-11 Lead RS./ KG. 118.6 118.55 113.2119 118.4 93249 3291 534124.1-0.2
Zinc MCX 28- FEB-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 114.1 114.2 109.9115.05 112.6 111507 3695 620661.4-1.5
Aluminum MCX 28- FEB-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 115.85 115.7 112.5116.6 114.1 32721 -1.75 1694 187442.5
Nickel MCX 28- FEB-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1294.1 1296 1251.51310.8 1294.2 263969 9632 844486.50.1
SymbolExch-ange
ExpiryDate
CommodityName
Price UnitPreviousClose
Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded
NetOpen
Interest
WeeklyTurnOver
(Rs. in Lakhs)
SILVER 5-APR-11 45480 2.17
GOLD 5-MAR-11 20340 0.35
Capitalvia Global Research Limited
Weekly Market Update
Weekly Report
Commodity
7 | www.capitalvia.com
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ALUMINIUM 28- FEB-11 114.1 -1.51
*
* Turnover Till Friday
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Gold
Silver
Copper
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Lead
Zinc
Aluminum
Nickel
Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3
21082.00
48967.67
488.12
4340.00
226.07
128.47
122.82
1404.10
122.60
20700.00
47140.67
473.52
4151.00
204.67
122.67
117.67
1344.80
118.50
20318.00
45313.67
458.92
3962.00
183.27
116.87
112.52
1285.50
114.40
20138.00
44483.33
451.63
3839.00
169.43
114.73
109.98
1260.20
112.20
19936.00
43486.67
418.97
3773.00
161.87
111.07
107.37
1226.20
110.30
19554.00
41659.67
429.72
3584.00
140.47
105.27
102.22
1166.90
106.20
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Weekly Pivots
Weekly Report
Commodity
R2
20520.00
46310.33
466.23
4028.00
190.83
120.53
115.13
1319.50
116.30
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