Building Blocks of Research Process Alan Monroe Chapter 2.

Building Blocks of Research Process

Alan MonroeChapter 2

Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational Definitions (17)

Building Blocks of the Research Process:

Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 is related to Variable 2Operational Definition: How you measure variable 1 and variable 2.


Theory It is a set of empirical generalizations about a topic. It is too general to test

since it makes statements about the relationship between abstract concepts. To test a theory, it has to be brought down to more specific terms. (17)

HypothesesThis is done by testing hypotheses, which is an empirical statement derived

from a theory. They are statements about variables.


Variables: (19)They are empirical properties that can take on two or more different values.

Operational DefinitionBut even variables are not specific enough. Each variable in a hypothesis

must have an operational definition, that is, a set of directions as to how the variable is to be observed and measured.

Types of Hypotheses (19)

Types of Hypotheses:

Univariate: making a statement about only one property or variable. (19)

Multivariate: a statement about how two or more variables are related. Most hypotheses are multivariate and

Directional: that is, they suggest not only how the variables are related

but what the direction of the relationship is. (19)

Null Hypothesis: There is in fact no relationship between the stated independent and dependent variables.

Hypothesis

Hypothesis: Variables

(IV) Independent Variable: the cause of something

(DV) Dependent Variable: the effect

It is not always easy to determine the IV and DV.

Control Variables: when they are used the intent is to ensure their effects are excluded.

…

Types of Hypotheses (19)

Types of Directional Relationships: Positive/Negative

Positive: variables move in the same direction:

Example: 1. As income rises, so does voting, 2. As income drops, so does voting.

Negative (or Inverse): Variables move in opposite directions:

Example: 1. As income rises, homelessness drops.

EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18)

Hypothesis:

IV: Cause DV: Effect

Positive:


They go up together.

They go down together.


Hypothesis:


Negative:


The variables move in opposite directions. They have an inverse relationship to each other .

Operational Definitions (25)

Testing a hypothesis requires precise operational definitions specifying how each Variable will be measured. If a variable cannot be operationally defined, it cannot be measured.

Operational Definitions: Two Requirements: 1) It must specify what we want to know2) And where (or how) we will get that information.

Example:Say we want to examine ethnic diversity in Boston: What we want is how

people in Boston identify ethnically, and how we would get it would be to look at the most recent US census data on Boston.

Units of Analysis (22)

Two common Units of Analysis: (26)Individuals: indicates either people in general, or a specific type ofperson (elected official, union member, etc). It can also refer toinstitutions, such as interest groups, corporations, political parties. Whatyou are doing is looking at how an “individual” unit, a person, a party isbehaving. Polls are the best source of data on people in general, whereastheir can be other sources of data on specific classes of individuals. (26)

Groups: analyze group behavior, such as performance on some test. You don’t go down to the individual. How did Democratic state legislators vote on a particular issue, as a group? You use aggregates, as opposed to individual data points.

It is not always easy to determine the unit of analysis. Yet the choice of which unit to use is extremely important. (22)


Units of Analysis: Exam Scores

Individuals: Student Score

Compare to: Other Students

12

Student: 85Student: 85

Groups: Average Class Score

Compare to: Other Classes

Class: 90Class: 90


Units of Analysis: Political Parties

Individuals: Dem. Or Rep. Party

Compare to: Other Parties

13

DemocratsDemocrats

Groups: Party System

Compare to: Other Party Systems

Amer. Party SystemAmer. Party System

RepublicansRepublicans

Ecological Fallacy: (22-23)

Ecological Fallacy erroneously drawing conclusions about individuals from groups. Solution: only draw conclusion about the units of analysis from which the data is actually drawn.

Example of Ecological Fallacy: Afro-Americans and WallaceStudent found a strong positive (directional) relationship between proportion

of a county that was Afro-American and those that voted for George Wallace and assumed Afro-Americans voted for Wallace. (22-23)

In fact, virtually no minorities supported Wallace. All the student really could say is that counties with a high number of Afro-Americans voted for Wallace. The county, not Afro-Americans was the unit of analysis.


Individuals: Voters

Compare to: Other Voters

15

BlackBlack

Groups: County

Compare to: Other Counties

Supported WallaceSupported Wallace

WhiteWhite

Units of Analysis: Votes for WallaceCounties, not necessarily Black voters supported Wallace.

BlackBlack


Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 is related to Variable 2Operational Definition:

Theory: economic development is related to political development

Hypothesis: The more industrialized a nation, the greater the level of mass political participation.

Null: There is no relationship between industrialization and mass participation.

Operational Definition: The higher percentage of manufacturing jobs (IV), as measured by United Nations Yearbook, the higher the percentage of people who voted (DV) in the last national election, according to the Stateman’s Yearbook.

…


Theory: Social networking technology (Concept 1) is related to political participation (Concept 2).

Hypothesis: Facebook usage (IV) promotes social movement activity (DV) in a society by reducing the logistical and informational costs associated with mass mobilizations.

Null: There is no relationship between Facebook usage and social movement activity.

Operational Definition: IV: Facebook Usage: Number of Pages, Friends, Chats, Hits?DV: Social Movement Activity: March Attendance, Type of Actions, Nature of Demands, Rhetoric?

…


Hypothesis:

Facebook usage (IV: Cause) promotes Soc. Move (DV: Effect)

Positive:


They go up together.

They go down together.


Hypothesis:


Negative:


…

The variables move in opposite directions. They have an inverse relationship to each other .


Theory: Economic status effects political participation.

Hypothesis: The higher a person’s income, the more likely they are to vote.

Null: There is no relationship between income and voting rates.

Operational Definition: The higher someone’s income (IV) is, as determined by a poll, the more likely they are to say they vote (DV), on the same poll.

…

Examples of Units of Analysis and IV and DV:

Hypothesis: The better the state of the economy, the greater the proportion of votes received by the party of the president.

Independent Variable: State of the EconomyDependent Variable: proportion of votes Unit of Analysis: Elections Hypothesis: The more negative the advertising in a Senatorial campaign, the

lower the turnout rate. Independent Variable: negativity of ads Dependent Variable: turnoutUnit of Analysis: US states (elections)

Examples of Units of Analysis and IV and DV:

Hypothesis: Media attention is necessary for a candidate to succeed in a primary election.

Independent Variable: media attentionDependent Variable: electoral successUnit of Analysis: elections

Hypothesis: Southern states have less party competition than Northern states.

Independent Variable: regionDependent Variable: party competitionUnit of Analysis: states

Review: Levels of AnalysisTheory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2

Hypothesis: Variable 1 (IV) is related to Variable 2 (DV)

Operational Definition: IV: Definition of Cause

DV: Definition of Effect

Review: Levels of Analysis

Theory: Inequality and Democracy

Hypothesis: Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV).

Operational Definitions: IV: (Inequality): Income Levels

DV: (Democracy): Voting

IV: (Inequality): Political Contributions DV: (Democracy): Representation

IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response


Theory: SSM and 2004 Election

Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV).

Operational Definitions: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot

DV: (Bush Reelection): Republican Voting % by state

Selection Bias: Variation on DVDV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state with Ban DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state without Ban


Theory: US Culture and Foreign Policy

Hypothesis: A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) shapes US Foreign Policy (DV).

Operational Definitions: IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House

DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq

Selection Bias: Variation on DVDV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In IraqDV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan


Theory: Women and Politics

Hypothesis: Gender (IV) had a defining effect on Nancy Pelosi’s election as Speaker of the House of Representatives. (DV).

Operational Definitions: IV: (Gender): Gender of Candidate

DV: (Leadership): Likelihood Women are Elected as a Leader.

Essay Outlines:

Introduction:Topic: Inequality and Democracy Question: How does Inequality affect Democracy? Thesis: (Hypothesis): Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy

(DV).

Literature Review: What have other said about the topic?

Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions):How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument:

IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response

Essay Outlines:

Introduction:Topic: SSM and 2004 ElectionQuestion: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush’s reelection?Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s

reelection (DV).



IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballotDV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state with Ban DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state without Ban

Essay Outlines:

Introduction:Topic: US Culture and Foreign PolicyQuestion: Is a Culture of Unilateralism shaping US Foreign Policy?Thesis: (Hypothesis): A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) is shapes US Foreign

Policy (DV).



IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In IraqDV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan

Building Blocks of Research Process Alan Monroe Chapter 2.

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