BRWM - The Evidence Supporting our Investment Philosophy.
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Transcript of BRWM - The Evidence Supporting our Investment Philosophy.
BRWM - The Evidence Supporting our Investment Philosophy
5000.1
1. Diversification
I. The Impact of Volatility
II. Growth of Wealth
III. The Randomness of Returns
IV. Balanced Strategies: Allocations
V. Balanced Strategies: Historical Returns
VI. Equity Returns of Developed Markets
VII. World Market Capitalisation
The Impact of Volatility
Year 1Return
Year 2Return
AverageReturn
CompoundReturn
Value at End of Year 2
Portfolio #1 50% -50% 0% -13.4% £75,000
Portfolio #2 10% -10% 0% -0.5% £99,000
Impact on a Hypothetical £100,000 Portfolio
For illustrative purposes only.
5010.2
Growth of Wealth 5015.2
£10
£100
£1,000
£10,000
£2,943Dimensional UK Value Index
£472FTSE All-Share Index
£52UK One Month Treasury Bills
£19UK Retail Price Index
£2,529Dimensional UK Small Cap Index
For the fifty-four years from 1956 to 2009, the compound annual growth rate of return was 15.94% for the Value Index, 15.62% for the Small Cap Index, 12.08% for the Large Cap Index, 7.60% for T-Bills, and 5.64% for Inflation (RPI) .
Value Index,1955-December 1993: data provided by the London Business School; 1994-present simulated by Dimensional from Bloomberg securities data. Small Cap Index,1970-June 1981: Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index; July 1981-December 1993 simulated by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data; 1994-present simulated by Dimensional from Bloomberg securities data. Large Cap Index is the FTSE All-Share Index published with the permission of FTSE. T-Bills, 1955-1974: UK Three-Month T-Bills provided by the London Share Price Database; 1975-present: UK One-Month T-Bills provided by the Financial Times. Inflation is the UK Retail Price Index provided by the Office for National Statistics.
This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material is directed exclusively at professional customers as defined by the FSA.Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
2009
MSCI data copyright MSCI 2009, all rights reserved. FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE. Dimensional index data simulated by Dimensional from Bloomberg and StyleResearch securities data .
This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Randomness of ReturnsIn British Pounds
5020.4
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
23.79 18.96 24.25 23.73 71.41 18.46 5.04 3.95 42.70 24.73 50.14 26.99 37.49 4.44 59.35
21.75 17.01 23.54 13.77 54.33 10.03 0.19 -15.03 40.72 22.88 30.17 24.98 7.33 -16.55 52.02
21.66 16.68 21.96 13.19 30.88 6.00 -0.45 -17.08 40.53 18.32 27.24 16.75 5.76 -21.91 34.86
20.90 6.03 19.85 7.38 30.16 1.16 -2.68 -22.67 39.98 17.44 26.86 16.50 5.32 -25.28 30.12
18.70 4.80 8.35 5.79 24.21 0.02 -2.75 -25.24 34.27 13.51 26.16 10.11 3.89 -29.93 26.65
9.40 1.32 6.79 1.13 23.36 -5.91 -10.23 -25.32 20.86 12.84 22.45 7.20 0.80 -35.08 21.62
6.61 -3.84 3.92 -4.70 21.50 -6.36 -13.28 -25.90 19.83 6.43 22.04 4.85 -6.96 -42.80 15.27
-4.34 -4.12 -7.89 -26.16 5.30 -24.96 -14.96 -28.09 3.67 4.53 4.82 4.39 -8.94 -49.56 0.53
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
UK One-Month Treasury Bills 6.61 6.03 6.79 7.38 5.30 6.00 5.04 3.95 3.67 4.53 4.82 4.85 5.76 4.44 0.53
FTSE All-Share Index 23.79 16.68 23.54 13.77 24.21 -5.91 -13.28 -22.67 20.86 12.84 22.04 16.75 5.32 -29.93 30.12
Dimensional UK Small Cap Index 18.70 17.01 8.35 -4.70 54.33 0.02 -10.23 -25.32 40.72 22.88 26.86 24.98 -6.96 -42.80 52.02
Dimensional UK Value Index 21.66 18.96 24.25 1.13 21.50 10.03 -0.45 -25.24 39.98 24.73 27.24 26.99 -8.94 -49.56 34.86
MSCI World ex UK Index (gross div.) 21.75 1.32 19.85 23.73 30.16 -6.36 -14.96 -28.09 19.83 6.43 22.45 4.39 7.33 -16.55 15.27
Dimensional International ex UK Small Index 9.40 -3.84 3.92 5.79 30.88 1.16 -2.75 -17.08 42.70 18.32 30.17 7.20 3.89 -21.91 26.65
Dimensional International ex UK Value Index 20.90 4.80 21.96 13.19 23.36 18.46 -2.68 -25.90 34.27 13.51 26.16 10.11 0.80 -25.28 21.62
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div.) -4.34 -4.12 -7.89 -26.16 71.41 -24.96 0.19 -15.03 40.53 17.44 50.14 16.50 37.49 -35.08 59.35
Highest Return
Lowest Return
FTSE All-Share Index 20.00% 16.00% 12.00% 8.00% 4.00% –
Dimensional UK Value Index 15.00% 12.00% 9.00% 6.00% 3.00% –
Dimensional UK Small Cap Index 15.00% 12.00% 9.00% 6.00% 3.00% –
MSCI World ex UK Index 15.00% 12.00% 9.00% 6.00% 3.00% –
Dimensional International ex UK Value Index 15.00% 12.00% 9.00% 6.00% 3.00% –
Dimensional International ex UK Small Index 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% –
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div.) 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% –
UK One-Month Treasury Bills – 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
FTSE published with the permission of FTSE. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2009, all rights reserved. Dimensional index data simulated by Dimensional from Bloomberg and StyleResearch securities data; not available for direct investment .
This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Balanced Strategies: AllocationsIn British Pounds
Fixed20/8040/6060/4080/20Equity
Model Portfolios
5030.3
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
38.58 4.98 16.98 8.15 14.92 7.12 33.40 5.74 4.78 3.69 31.94 15.70 27.21 14.98 5.50 5.18 32.30
31.37 3.56 14.85 7.74 13.36 7.07 27.37 4.51 2.55 -2.06 25.92 13.37 22.46 12.91 5.03 -3.90 25.79
24.46 2.09 12.71 7.29 11.73 6.84 21.52 3.24 0.19 -7.69 20.05 11.07 17.83 10.83 4.62 -11.62 19.31
17.84 0.59 10.59 6.81 10.04 6.41 15.85 1.94 -2.27 -13.19 14.34 8.78 13.29 8.75 4.13 -19.00 12.88
11.51 -0.95 8.46 6.30 8.31 5.77 10.36 0.59 -4.84 -18.55 8.80 6.52 8.87 6.66 3.61 -26.02 6.53
5.46 -2.52 6.35 5.76 6.52 4.92 5.04 -0.79 -7.50 -23.77 3.41 4.27 4.56 4.58 3.05 -32.67 0.28
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Annualised Return
Annual Standard Deviation
Equity 38.58 -2.52 16.98 8.15 14.92 4.92 33.40 -0.79 -7.50 -23.77 31.94 15.70 27.21 14.98 3.05 -32.67 32.30 8.40 19.98
80/20 31.37 -0.95 14.85 7.74 13.36 5.77 27.37 0.59 -4.84 -18.55 25.92 13.37 22.46 12.91 3.61 -26.02 25.79 7.91 15.93
60/40 24.46 0.59 12.71 7.29 11.73 6.41 21.52 1.94 -2.27 -13.19 20.05 11.07 17.83 10.83 4.13 -19.00 19.31 7.30 11.91
40/60 17.84 2.09 10.59 6.81 10.04 6.84 15.85 3.24 0.19 -7.69 14.34 8.78 13.29 8.75 4.62 -11.62 12.88 6.58 7.93
20/80 11.51 3.56 8.46 6.30 8.31 7.07 10.36 4.51 2.55 -2.06 8.80 6.52 8.87 6.66 5.03 -3.90 6.53 5.75 4.05
Fixed 5.46 4.98 6.35 5.76 6.52 7.12 5.04 5.74 4.78 3.69 3.41 4.27 4.56 4.58 5.50 5.18 0.28 4.88 1.53
Standard deviation is a statistical measure of risk where past performance is used to determine the range of possible future performance. Generally speaking, the higher the standard deviation, the greater the risk.
Assumes all strategies have been rebalanced monthly.All balanced strategies information is based on returns of indices with model/back-tested allocations. The returns were achieved with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment strategies. The model’s returns reflect hypothetical fund manager fees. There are limitations inherent in model allocations. In particular, model returns may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on the adviser’s decision making if the adviser were managing actual client money.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Lowest Return
Highest Return
5040.3
Fixed20/8040/6060/4080/20Equity
Balanced Strategies: Historical ReturnsIn British Pounds
Equity Returns of Developed MarketsAnnual Return (%)In British Pounds
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Austria121.51
Spain115.61
Japan12.41
Belg.59.93
Austria130.17
UK-8.22
H.K.54.07
H.K.63.51
H.K.121.68
Norway16.88
Switz.45.41
Spain26.64
Switz. 50.29
Belg. 65.90
Sing.105.39
Switz.14.43
Austral.4.35
Austria5.36
Austria42.11
Austria59.93
Can.43.18
Spain 31.24
H.K.38.89
Japan-1.85
Norway66.52
Germ.65.12
Italy103.02
Spain7.62
Den.58.99
Germ.65.12
H.K.-9.15
Austral.37.72
Switz.44.90
Sing.71.85
Japan14.87
US38.38
Sweden24.07
Italy41.18
Italy50.84
Sweden85.15
Can.13.91
Austria-3.15
Austral.-10.82
Spain40.02
Belg.33.83
Japan40.07
Sing.28.91
Germ.32.99
Switz.-3.62
Austral.57.05
Italy85.78
Japan94.35
UK6.17
Sweden54.43
Norway64.27
Austria-11.51
US34.03
US31.50
Switz.49.12
Sweden11.93
Sweden34.59
H.K.20.32
Den.40.17
Spain48.24
Japan66.38
Den.11.87
Belg.-8.56
Norway-16.16
Germ.39.14
Norway29.04
Austria39.09
Norway27.52
Norway29.27
US-13.44
Sing.54.85
Switz.64.97
Belg.73.86
Can.-10.46
Norway48.26
Den.62.45
Norway-16.24
Sing.28.74
Sing.31.37
Norway45.31
Neth.5.66
Spain31.00
Norway16.32
US38.96
France39.97
H.K.64.29
Norway7.16
Spain-9.01
Italy-16.23
Sweden39.14
Sweden27.07
Den.38.93
Sweden 25.99
Can.27.44
Spain-17.64
Sweden46.13
France45.95
France73.83
Den.-10.99
France43.53
Sing.60.61
Den.-17.54
France21.42
France27.06
Sweden40.17
Italy5.52
Neth.28.87
Can.16.24
Spain30.69
US28.70
Can.58.35
Italy6.71
Norway-9.92
Japan-18.91
Can.38.61
Italy25.53
Norway38.66
Den. 21.94
Sing.26.25
France-21.35
H.K.42.56
Belg.41.60
Sweden61.40
Austral.-14.13
Austral.42.01
France53.67
US-19.41
Neth.21.40
Neth.26.43
Germ.38.81
Belg.2.38
Belg.27.01
Neth.15.30
Germ.29.80
Germ.28.01
Norway35.62
Neth.3.69
US-10.09
Switz.-18.92
Den.36.94
Den.21.98
Switz.29.82
Belg.20.08
Belg.36.66
Can.-24.45
Belg.40.19
Norway35.19
H.K.52.14
Belg.-15.22
Japan40.95
Neth.53.27
Neth.-19.44
Den.20.10
Belg.21.79
Neth.38.40
Sing.0.93
H.K.23.68
UK15.23
Neth.28.95
Switz.22.17
France33.13
France3.46
UK-11.81
Sing.-19.60
Austral.34.84
Austral.24.53
Austral.29.47
Austria 19.98
Den.23.54
Germ.-24.95
Can.39.03
Den.28.52
Sing.41.50
Neth.-15.85
Sing.38.84
Sweden48.80
Switz.-21.96
UK19.55
UK19.06
Austral.38.30
Austral.-0.30
UK22.36
US11.44
UK27.75
Neth.21.86
US25.57
Austral.-2.63
Den.-12.57
Can.-21.55
Norway25.35
Spain20.22
Sing.27.63
Germ.19.49
Spain21.92
Sing.-27.00
Spain27.72
Neth.27.98
Austral.38.68
Norway-16.95
H.K.33.37
US46.75
Germ.-24.58
Switz.19.27
Germ.10.89
Den.35.88
Germ.-1.00
Den.19.85
Den.10.14
Belg.18.32
UK16.52
Germ.23.63
UK-4.35
H.K.-16.47
Belg.-23.13
Italy24.27
H.K.16.53
Neth.27.05
France18.17
Neth.18.61
Den.-27.29
UK27.56
Sweden25.83
Neth.37.16
US-19.11
Germ.25.57
Switz.42.45
Belg.-25.92
Spain19.14
Austria10.45
Spain32.76
Den.-1.85
Can.19.37
France9.58
Sweden17.66
Sweden12.70
Austral.21.14
Austria-4.82
Can.-18.36
UK-23.37
France23.93
Sing.14.00
Sweden23.09
Italy16.42
France11.38
Neth.-28.20
Austria 27.47
Spain24.06
Germ.31.86
Sing.-19.59
Can.21.88
Can.40.31
Sing.-26.51
Sweden17.91
Austral.10.20
Italy31.50
Switz.-2.06
Germ.17.46
Austral.5.32
Can.17.52
Den.7.78
UK15.81
US-5.86
Switz.-19.30
Spain-23.43
Japan22.21
Can.13.95
Germ.22.66
Neth.15.45
UK6.59
UK-28.37
Neth.26.63
UK22.71
Austria31.33
Austria-19.64
US19.33
UK37.65
Can.-27.58
Belg.17.22
Can.8.60
Austria31.05
US-4.33
France15.15
Germ.2.69
France16.63
Austral.4.90
Den.15.44
H.K.-7.82
Neth.-20.07
Den.-24.11
Belg.18.99
UK11.49
France22.62
Austral.14.99
Italy4.32
Sweden-30.48
Den.21.57
H.K.21.62
Switz.29.99
Sweden-19.82
Neth.18.87
Italy34.79
Spain-28.30
Can.14.46
Sweden5.76
Japan28.35
UK-6.93
Austral.12.19
Italy1.80
Norway10.71
Japan3.87
Neth.10.08
Germ.-8.74
France-20.32
H.K.-25.69
UK18.04
France10.48
Belg.21.69
UK14.77
US3.71
Italy-30.64
France17.35
Japan14.68
UK23.74
H.K.-24.63
Spain18.22
Belg.32.40
France-28.30
Japan12.23
Japan-2.91
UK27.30
Can.-8.27
Sing.7.44
Belg.1.30
Austria5.84
Austria-0.77
Spain7.87
Spain-9.02
Germ.-20.35
Neth.-28.44
H.K.16.85
Germ.8.32
H.K.20.96
H.K.14.54
Switz. 3.57
Austral.-31.61
Italy12.67
US5.10
US13.33
Switz.-28.83
Italy16.05
Spain23.88
Austral.-31.37
Germ.11.45
Spain-3.43
Belg.26.37
Spain-9.96
Norway6.98
Austria-5.50
Austral.-6.68
H.K.-3.98
Italy2.72
Belg.-10.09
Sing.-21.41
France-28.76
Switz.16.05
Japan8.03
UK19.80
Switz.11.95
Austria0.50
H.K.-32.35
US12.39
Austral.-4.14
Can.7.14
France-32.26
Switz.10.54
Austral.23.36
Italy-32.76
Italy1.15
Italy-3.86
France23.70
France-10.31
Italy1.96
Switz.-7.53
H.K.-20.07
Can.-7.16
Switz.-7.53
Sweden-14.88
Italy-24.67
US-30.48
US15.47
Switz.7.19
US17.33
Can.3.52
Sweden-1.03
Norway-50.42
Switz.11.55
Can.-7.75
Den.-1.32
Italy-38.14
UK10.29
H.K.22.34
Sweden-34.26
Austria-9.56
Norway-3.97
Can.20.31
Austria-11.35
Japan1.61
Sing.-15.80
Japan-20.47
Sing.-13.83
Austria-6.39
Sing.-21.85
Sweden-25.26
Sweden-37.17
Sing.15.30
Neth.4.65
Spain16.51
US0.77
Belg.-4.32
Belg.-53.53
Germ.11.41
Sing.-37.61
Norway-5.00
Germ.-40.85
Austria4.27
Japan14.82
Japan-46.84
Norway-12.93
Den.-11.32
US11.67
H.K.-32.76
Austria-3.87
Japan-23.87
Sing.-27.12
Norway-30.83
Belg.-11.70
Japan-22.32
Japan-27.56
Germ.-39.61
Neth.10.43
US2.69
Italy13.71
Japan-6.64
Japan-5.80
Austria-56.20
Japan-5.42
Highest Return
Lowest Return
Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends) with at least twenty-five years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2009, all rights reserved.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5050.3
Equity Returns of Developed MarketsAnnual Return (%)
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-4.14 38.68 -14.13 42.01 23.36 -31.37 37.72 10.20 38.30 -0.30 12.19 5.32 -6.68 4.90 21.14 -2.63 4.35 -10.82 34.84 21.53 29.47 14.99 26.23 -31.61 57.05
121.51 31.33 -19.64 4.72 130.17 -11.51 -9.56 10.45 31.05 -11.35 -3.87 -5.50 -5.84 -0.77 -6.39 -4.82 -3.15 5.36 42.11 59.93 39.09 19.98 0.50 -56.20 27.47
41.60 73.86 -15.22 59.93 32.40 -25.92 17.22 21.79 26.37 2.38 27.01 1.30 18.32 65.90 -11.70 -10.09 -8.56 -23.13 18.99 33.83 21.69 20.08 -4.32 -53.53 40.19
-7.75 7.14 -10.46 21.88 40.31 -27.58 14.46 8.60 20.31 -8.27 19.37 16.24 17.52 -7.16 58.35 13.91 -18.36 -21.55 38.61 13.95 43.18 3.52 27.44 -24.45 39.03
28.52 -1.32 -10.99 58.99 62.45 -17.54 20.10 -11.32 35.88 -1.85 19.85 10.14 40.17 7.78 15.44 11.87 -12.57 -24.11 36.94 21.98 38.93 21.94 23.54 -27.29 21.57
45.95 13.83 -32.26 43.53 53.67 -28.30 21.42 27.06 23.70 -10.31 15.15 9.58 16.63 39.97 33.13 3.46 -20.32 -28.76 23.93 10.48 22.62 18.17 11.38 -21.35 17.35
88.60 31.86 -40.85 25.57 65.12 -24.58 11.45 10.89 38.81 -1.00 17.46 2.69 29.80 28.01 23.63 -8.74 -20.35 -39.61 39.14 8.32 22.66 19.49 32.99 -24.95 11.41
21.62 52.14 -24.63 33.37 22.34 -9.15 54.07 63.51 121.68 -32.76 23.68 20.32 -20.07 -3.98 64.29 -7.82 -16.47 -25.69 16.85 16.53 20.96 14.54 38.89 -32.35 42.56
85.78 103.02 -38.14 16.05 34.79 -32.76 1.15 -3.86 31.50 5.52 1.96 1.80 41.18 50.84 2.72 6.71 -24.67 -16.23 24.27 25.53 13.71 16.42 4.32 -30.64 12.67
14.68 94.35 12.41 40.95 14.82 -46.84 12.23 -2.91 28.35 14.87 1.61 -23.59 -20.47 3.87 66.38 -22.32 -27.56 -18.91 22.21 8.03 40.07 -6.64 -5.80 -1.85 -5.42
27.98 37.16 -15.85 18.87 53.27 -19.44 21.40 26.43 38.40 5.66 28.87 15.30 28.95 21.86 10.08 3.69 -20.07 -28.44 10.43 4.65 27.05 15.45 18.61 -28.20 26.63
35.19 -5.00 -16.95 48.26 64.27 -16.24 -12.93 -3.97 45.31 16.88 6.98 16.32 10.71 -30.83 35.62 7.16 -9.92 -16.16 25.35 29.04 38.66 27.52 29.27 -50.42 66.52
-37.61 41.50 -19.59 38.84 60.61 -26.51 28.74 31.37 71.85 0.93 7.44 -15.80 -27.12 -13.83 105.39 -21.85 -21.41 -19.60 15.30 14.00 27.63 28.91 26.25 -27.00 54.85
24.06 115.61 7.62 18.22 23.88 -28.30 19.14 -3.43 32.76 -9.96 31.00 26.64 30.69 48.24 7.97 -9.02 -9.01 -23.43 40.02 20.22 16.51 31.24 21.92 -17.64 27.72
25.83 61.40 -19.82 54.43 48.80 -34.26 17.91 5.76 40.17 11.93 34.59 24.07 17.66 12.70 85.15 -14.88 -25.26 -37.17 39.14 27.07 23.09 25.99 -1.03 -30.48 46.13
64.97 29.99 -28.83 10.54 42.45 -21.96 19.27 44.90 49.12 -2.06 -45.41 -7.53 50.29 22.17 -4.25 14.43 -19.30 -18.92 16.05 7.19 29.82 11.95 3.57 -3.62 11.55
22.71 23.74 6.17 10.29 37.56 -8.22 19.55 19.06 27.30 -6.93 22.36 15.23 27.75 16.52 15.81 -4.35 -11.81 -23.37 18.04 11.49 19.80 14.77 6.59 -28.37 27.56
5.10 13.33 -19.11 19.33 46.75 -19.41 34.03 31.50 11.67 -4.33 38.38 11.44 38.96 28.70 25.57 -5.76 -10.09 -30.48 15.47 2.69 17.33 0.77 3.71 -13.44 12.39
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
France
Germany
Hong Kong
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Singapore
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends) with at least twenty-five years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2009, all rights reserved.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Boxed Return is the highest return for the year.
5050.3
Where Dimensional Invests: Developed Markets Emerging Markets Not Invested
In British pounds. Map reflects countries in the MSCI All Country World IMI Index, and MSCI Frontier Markets Index. Market cap data is free-float adjusted. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2010, all rights reserved. Many small nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. Dimensional makes case-by-case determinations about the suitability of investing in each emerging market, making considerations that include local market accessibility, government stability and property rights before making investments. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. 1. An example large cap stock provided for comparison.
United States 7,509
United Kingdom 1,528
Japan 1,504
Canada 745
France 736
Australia 600
Germany 558
Switzerland 519
China 405
Brazil 359
SCALETOP 20 NATIONS BY MARKET CAPITALISATION (£ BILLIONS)
Spain 306
South Korea 292
Taiwan 287
Italy 243
Sweden 195
Netherlands 189
India 183
Hong Kong 166
South Africa 162
Russia 131
World Market Capitalisation£17.7 Trillion as at December 31, 2009
5060.3
2. Market Efficiency
5100.2
I. Warren E. Buffett
II. Efficient Markets Hypothesis
III. UK Equity Fund Returns
IV. Actively Managed Funds: Non-Survivorship and Underperformance
Warren E. BuffettChairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.
Warren E. Buffet, Chairman’s Letter, Berkshire Hathaway Corp. 1996 Annual Report, February 28, 1997. Available in www.berkshirehathaway.com/annual.html (accessed May 21, 2007)
“Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.”
5110.1
Efficient Markets HypothesisEugene F. Fama, University of Chicago
The Hypothesis States:
• Current prices incorporate all available information and expectations.
• Current prices are the best approximation of intrinsic value.
• Price changes are due to unforeseen events.
• “Mispricings” do occur but not in predictable patterns that can lead to consistent outperformance.
Implications
• Active management strategies cannot consistently add value through security selection and market timing.
• Passive investment strategies reward investors with capital market returns.
Eugene F. Fama, “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work,” Journal of Finance 25, no. 2 (May 1970): 383-417. Eugene F. Fama, “Foundations of Finance,” Journal of Finance 32, no. 3 (June 1977): 961-64.
5120.1
UK Equity Fund ReturnsJanuary 1990-December 2009
Source: Morningstar data provided by Morningstar Inc. Includes all Morningstar UK Equity funds with twenty-year returns, distinct portfolios only, as of 31 December 2009.FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE. Dimensional index data simulated by Dimensional from Bloomberg and StyleResearch securities data; not available for direct investment.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Annualised Compound Return (%)
Dimensional UK Value Index 8.96
FTSE All-Share Index 8.06
Dimensional UK Small Cap Index 7.78
Morningstar Fund Average 7.67
Number of Funds
Ann
ua
lised
Co
mp
oun
d R
etu
rn (
%)
5130.3
Non-Surviving Equity FundsActively Managed US Equity Funds
2005-2009
Data provided by CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database. Sample includes mutual funds existing as of 12/2004. Returns analyzed for the five-year period from 2005-2009. Multiple share classes are aggregated to fund level. Index funds, inverse funds, and leveraged funds are excluded.
A benchmark is a standard against which the performance of an individual security or group of securities is measured . It is usually based on published indexes of securities of the same or similar class. However customized ones maybe used to suit a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.
Total Universe of2,231 Funds in 2005
Percentage of CumulativeNon-Survivors
On average, 7.0% of the actively managed equity fund universe disappeared each year.
During 2005, 6.8% of the fund universe disappeared. By the fifth year, 30.4% of the fund universe (677 funds) had disappeared.
Reasons for non-survival likely include closure due to poor investment results.
Non-Surviving Equity FundsActively Managed US Equity Funds2005-2009
5140.2
Data provided by CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database. Sample includes mutual funds existing as of 12/2004. Returns analyzed for the five-year period from 2005-2009. Multiple share classes are aggregated to fund level. Index funds, inverse funds, and leveraged funds are excluded.
A benchmark is a standard against which the performance of an individual security or group of securities is measured. It is usually based on published indexes of securities of the same or similar class. However customized ones maybe used to suit a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.
Equity funds that beat their category benchmark consistently.
Few Consistent Equity Fund WinnersActively Managed US Equity Funds
2005-2009
Equity funds did not outperform their respective category benchmark in most years or over the entire five-year period.
Nearly half (46.8%) of actively managed US equity funds outperformed their benchmark in 2005.
Five years later, only 1.0% of the initial funds (23 out of 2,231) had outperformed the benchmark every year.
Few Consistent Equity Fund WinnersActively Managed US Equity Funds2005-2009
5140.2
Non-Surviving Bond FundsActively Managed US Bond Funds
2005-2009
Data provided by CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database. Sample includes mutual funds existing as of 12/2004. Returns analyzed for the five-year period from 2005-2009. Multiple share classes are aggregated to fund level. Index funds, inverse funds, and leveraged funds are excluded.
A benchmark is a standard against which the performance of an individual security or group of securities is measured. It is usually based on published indexes of securities of the same or similar class. However customized ones maybe used to suit a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.
Total Universe of911 Funds in 2005
Percentage of CumulativeNon-Survivors
On average, 6.5% of the actively managed bond fund universe disappeared each year.
During 2005, 7.8% of the funds had disappeared. By the fifth year, 28.5% of the fund universe (260 funds) had disappeared.
Poor investment results is one likely reason for non-survivorship.
Non-Surviving Bond FundsActively Managed US Bond Funds2005-2009
5140.2
Data provided by CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database. Sample includes mutual funds existing as of 12/2004. Returns analyzed for the five-year period from 2005-2009. Multiple share classes are aggregated to fund level. Index funds, inverse funds, and leveraged funds are excluded.
A benchmark is a standard against which the performance of an individual security or group of securities is measured. It is usually based on published indexes of securities of the same or similar class. However customized ones maybe used to suit a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.
Surviving bond funds that beat their category benchmark consistently.
Few Consistent Bond Fund WinnersActively Managed US Bond Funds
2005-2009
Even among survivors, few actively managed bond funds outperformed their category benchmark in most years or over the entire period.
About four out of ten actively managed bond funds beat the benchmark in 2005.
Five years later, less than 1% of the surviving funds had beat the benchmark every year.
Few Consistent Bond Fund WinnersActively Managed US Bond Funds2005-2009
5140.2
3. Risk/Return
5200.1
I. Capital Asset Pricing Model
II. Fama-French Three Factor Model
III. Size and Value Effects Are Strong around the World
IV. Risk Factors Have Periods of Under- and Over-Performance
V. Precision in Portfolios
VI. Does It Pay to Extend Maturities?
VII. Distribution of US Market Returns
Capital Asset Pricing ModelWilliam Sharpe: Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990
Total Equity Risk
Unsystematic
• Specific to firm or industry (lawsuit, fraud, etc.).
• Diversifiable.
• No compensation.
Systematic
• Marketwide, affects all firms (war, recession, inflation, etc.).
• Non-diversifiable.
• Investor compensation.
• Measured by beta.
Company Risk
Industry Risk
Market Risk
Unsystematic
Systematic
Beta measures volatility relative to the total market. A beta higher than the market’s beta of 1 implies more volatility, and a beta lower than the market’s implies less volatility.
5210.1
• Over 70% of the variation in returns is due to risk factor exposure.
Source: Dimensional study (2002) of 44 institutional equity pension plans with US $452 billion total assets.Factor analysis run over various time periods, averaging nine years. Total assets based on total plan dollar amounts as of year end 2001.Average explanatory power (R2) is for the Fama/French equity benchmark universe.
70% StructuredExposure to Market Factor
30% Stock Picking, Market Timing, and NoiseSINGLE-FACTOR MODEL (CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL)
R(t) - RF(t) = a + b[RM(t) - RF(t)] + e(t)
sensitivity to market[market return minus T-bills]
randomerrore(t)
++=average expected return[minus T-bills]
average excess return
Capital Asset Pricing Model 5210.1
• Over 96% of the variation in returns is due to risk factor exposure.
• After fees, traditional management typically reduces returns.
Source: Dimensional study (2002) of 44 institutional equity pension plans with $452 billion total assets. Factor analysis run over various time periods, averaging nine years. Total assets based on total plan dollar amounts as of year-end 2001. Average explanatory power (R2) is for the Fama/French equity benchmark universe.
sensitivity to market[market return minus T-bills]
sensitivity to size
[small stocksminus big stocks]
sensitivity to BtM
[value stocksminus growth]
randomerrore(t)
++ + +=average expected return[minus T-bills]
average excess return
THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING
Priced Risk
• Positive expected return.
• Systematic.
• Economic.
• Long-term.
• Investing.
Unpriced Risk
• Noise.
• Random.
• Short-term.
• Speculating.
96% Structured Exposure to Factors.
4% Stock Picking and Market Timing
• Market.• Size.• Value/Growth.
Fama-French Three Factor Model 5212.1
Value stocks are above the 30th percentile in book-to-market ratio. Growth stocks are below the 70th percentile in book-to-market ratio.Simulations are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries. UK and Europe data provided by London Business School/StyleResearch.US value and growth data provided by Fama/French. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Size and Value Effects Are Strong around the WorldAnnual Index DataPercent per Annum in £
5220.3A
nnu
alis
ed
Com
pou
nd
Re
turn
s (%
)
Standard Deviation (%)
15.81
12.0810.43
19.15
15.62
12.59 12.15
9.538.15
13.02
10.73
8.20
10.34 9.798.95
13.59
11.49
8.72
17.97
13.30
10.81
UK Large Value
UK Large
Market
UK Large
Growth
UK Small Value
UK Small
Market
UK Small
Growth
Europe Large Value
Europe Large
Market
Europe Large
Growth
Europe Small Value
Europe Small
Market
Europe Small
Growth
US Large Value
S&P 500
Index
US Large
Growth
US Small Value
CRSP 6-10 Index
US Small
Growth
Emg. Markets
Value
Emg. Markets “Market”
Emg. Markets Growth
UK LargeCapitalisation Stocks
(£) 1956-2009
UK SmallCapitalisation Stocks
(£) 1956-2009
Europe ex UK Large Capitalisation
Stocks (€) 1981-2009
Europe ex UK Small Capitalisation Stocks
(€) 1981-2009
US Large Capitalisation Stocks
($) 1927-2009
US Small Capitalisation Stocks
($) 1927-2009
Emerging Markets Capitalisation Stocks
($) 1989-2009
32.08 28.60 26.29 31.81 30.34 30.83 27.22 23.29 25.76 26.10 24.80 27.51 27.17 20.63 22.06 35.30 31.09 34.20 43.04 37.29 35.70
Risk Factors Have Periods of Under- and Over-Performance1957-2009In GBP
5230.3
Our source of share price and listing information was the London Share Price Database (LSPD) maintained at the London Business School. The master index of this database covers all listed stocks in the UK market since 1957. We selected stocks officially listed on the LSE and excluded foreign companies and investment trusts. To choose the value sectors we rank the universe by book-to-market and approximately the top 30% is the value universe. The small sectors we rank the universe by market capitalisation and approximately the bottom 10% is the small universe.Copyright © 2003 Elroy Dimson, Stefan Nagel and Garrett Quigley. UK research data provided by the London School of Business.
• From year to year, stocks with high book-to-market ratios and smaller market caps do not always produce higher returns.
• Over longer time periods, the size and value premiums are more prevalent.
• Investors that maintained disciplined size and value exposure were ultimately rewarded.
Per
cen
t pe
r Y
ear
Size Premium
Value Premium
Per
cen
t pe
r Y
ear
2009
2009
Precision in Portfolios
• Traditionally, “products” have been classified into rigid and sometimes arbitrary categories.
• Style boxes force crude strategic allocation.
Three-Factor Model
Traditional Consulting Style Box
Value Blend Growth
La
rge
Mid
Sm
all
Large
“The Market”
Small
Growth Value
• Using the three-factor model, the total portfolio is measured by factors that determine risk and expected return.
• Freedom from brittle definitions allows precisely tuned portfolios.
5240.1
Does It Pay to Extend Maturities?1900-2000
• Not all investors define risk as standard deviation. Some investors may seek to hedge long-term bonds.
• Historically, longer maturity instruments have higher standard deviations and have not provided consistently greater returns.
UK Bills US BondsUK Bonds
US Bills
US Equities UK Equities
15
10
5
0
5 10 15 20 25
Standard Deviation (%)
5250.2
Bills Bonds Equities
UK US UK US UK US
Annualised Compound Returns (%) 5.10 4.00 6.00 5.30 11.60 11.60
Annualised Standard Deviation (%) 3.80 2.80 12.00 8.20 21.70 19.90
Dimson, Elroy, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, Millennium Book II: 101 Years of Investment Returns (ABN AMRO and London Business School, 2001). This publication defines the data used for the above chart and matrix as follows: UK Bills are UK One-Month Treasury Bills (FTSE). UK Bonds are the ABN AMRO Bond Index. UK Equities are the ABN AMRO/LBS Equity Index. US Bills are commercial bills 1900-1918 and One-Month US Treasury Bills (Ibbotson) 1919-2000. US Bonds are government bonds 1900-1918, the Federal Reserve Bond Index 10-15 Years 1919-1925, Long-Term Government Bonds (Ibbotson) 1926-1998, and the JP Morgan US Government Bond Index 1999-2000. US Equities are Schwert’s Index Series 1900-1925, CRSP 1-10 Deciles Index 1926-1970, and the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index 1971-2000.
Ret
urn
(%
)
194920.2
195120.7
196321.0
198221.0
1970 19440.0 21.3
1953 19960.7 21.4
1960 1993 19831.2 11.1 22.0
1987 2004 19791.7 12.0 22.6
1948 1959 1998 19972.1 12.7 24.3 31.4
1939 1952 1955 2003 2.9 13.4 25.2 31.6 1947 1968 1999 1985
3.6 14.1 25.3 32.2
1973 1966 1934 1965 1976 1936-18.1 -8.7 4.3 14.5 26.8 32.3
1929 1932 1984 2006 1961 1980-14.6 -8.7 4.5 15.5 26.9 32.82000 1940 2007 1942 1938 1927-11.4 -7.1 5.8 16.0 28.1 33.4
2001 1990 2005 1964 1943 1991-11.1 -6.0 6.2 16.1 28.4 34.7
1969 1946 1978 1971 1967 1995 -10.9 -5.9 7.5 16.1 28.7 36.8
1930 1962 1977 1956 1986 2009 1945 1935 -28.5 -10.2 -4.3 8.3 16.2 28.8 38.1 44.3
2008 1974 1957 1981 1926 1972 1989 1975 1958 -36.7 -27.0 -10.1 -3.6 9.2 16.8 28.9 38.8 45.0
1931 1937 2002 1941 1994 1992 1988 1950 1928 1954 1933-43.5 -34.7 -21.1 -10.0 -0.1 9.8 18.0 29.6 38.9 50.0 57.1
-50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60%
Annual Return Range
CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The CRSP 1-10 Index measures the performance of the total US stock market, which it defines as the aggregate capitalization of all securities listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Positive Years: 62 (74%)
Negative Years: 22 (26%)
In 2008, the US stock market experienced its second worst performance year since 1926.
In 2009, US market performance was in the top quartile of historical calendar year returns.
Distribution of US Market ReturnsCRSP 1-10 Index Returns by Year1926-2009
5251.1
4. Long-Term Discipline
5300.1
I. The Importance of Long-Term Discipline
II. The Stock Market’s Reaction
III. Performance of the FTSE All-Share Index
IV. Comparison of Market Returns, Fund Returns and Investor Returns
V. UK Value vs. UK Market
VI. UK Small vs. UK Market
VII. UK One-Month T-Bills vs. UK Market
VIII. Subsequent Performance of Top Equity Managers
IX. Bull and Bear Markets
The Importance of Long-Term Discipline
For illustrative purposes only. UK One-Month T-Bills provided by Datastream; prior to January 1975, UK Three-Month T-Bills provided by London Share Price Database. FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5310.3
Annualised Compound Returns (%) 2/1955-12/2009 1/1960-12/1974 1/1975-12/2009
FTSE All-Share Index 12.03 1.25 16.08
UK One-Month Treasury Bills 7.54 6.40 8.48
The Stock Market’s ReactionAs Measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Date Event
First Trading Session Response Subsequent Market Behaviour
Prior Day Close Close Change
Percent Change
One Month
Six Months One Year
11 September 2001 World Trade Center towers destroyed 9,605.51 8,920.70 -684.81 -7.13% -3.66% 11.12% -8.71%
16 January 1991 US launches bombing attack on Iraq 2,508.91 2,623.51 114.60 4.57% 16.97% 18.93% 29.52%
2 August 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait 2,899.26 2,864.60 -34.66 -1.20% -8.74% -4.67% 4.95%
30 March 1981 President Reagan shot by John Hinckley Jr. 994.78 992.16 -2.62 -0.26% 1.95% -14.33% -16.90%
9 August 1974 President Nixon resigns 784.89 777.30 -7.59 -0.97% -14.71% -8.87% 5.98%
22 November 1963 President Kennedy assassinated in Dallas 732.64 711.48 -21.16 -2.89% 6.57% 15.37% 24.99%
22 October 1962 Cuban missile crisis 568.60 558.06 -10.54 -1.85% 15.55% 27.41% 33.89%
24 September 1955 President Eisenhower heart attack 487.44 455.55 -31.89 -6.54% 0.04% 12.48% 5.72%
25 June 1950 North Korea invades South Korea 224.30 213.90 -10.40 -4.64% -4.49% 7.34% 15.13%
7 December 1941 Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, Hawaii 115.90 112.52 -3.38 -2.92% -0.86% -6.19% 2.88%
Dow Jones data provided by Dow Jones Indexes.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5320.1
FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE.Long-Term Govt. Bonds are the Citigroup World Government Bond Index UK 1-30+ Years, copyright 2009 by Citigroup.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gro
wth
of
£1,0
00
Annualised Compound
Return
One-Month T-Bills
7.03%
Missed 25 Best Days
4.41%
Missed 15 Best Days
6.17%
Missed 5 Best Days
8.30%
Missed 1 Best Day
9.60%
Total Period
10.00%
Long-TermGovt. Bonds
8.70%
Performance of the FTSE All-Share IndexJanuary 1986-December 2009
5330.3
US study in US dollars. Estimated Equity Fund Investor Return calculation based on a comparison of time-weighted returns with the dollar-weighted returns earned by the fund investors for 600 general equity funds during 1983-2003. Source: John C. Bogle, “The Mutual Fund Industry 60 Years Later: For Better or Worse,” Financial Analysts Journal 61, no. 1 (2005): 15-24. UK study in GBP sterling. Source: Lukas Schneider, An Examination of the Difference Between UK Fund Returns and UK Fund Investors’ Returns , July 2007.
US: 1983-2003
Measure Annual Return Growth of $1
Stock Market Return 13.00% $11.50
Average Equity Fund Return 10.30% $7.10
Estimated Equity Fund Investor Return 7.90% $4.57
UK: 1992-2003
Measure Annual Return Growth of £1
FTSE All Share 8.99% £2.81
Average Fund 6.93% £2.23
Average Fund Investor 4.91% £1.78
Comparison of Market Returns, Fund Returns, and Investor Returns
5331.1
Source: UK Market is the FTSE All-Share Index. FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE. UK Value simulated by Dimensional from Bloomberg securities data, prior to 1994 data provided by London Business School. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Rolling Time Periods 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years
Number of Periods 643 619 595 535 475 415 295 175
Periods UK Value > UK Market 452 498 514 528 472 415 295 175
UK Value vs. UK MarketMonthly: July 1955-December 2009
5340.4
70%
80%86%
99% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where UK Value Outperformed UK Market
66% 70% 73% 77% 78% 77%
100% 100%
Source: UK Small simulated by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data; prior to July 1981, Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index, provided by the London School of Business. UK Market is the FTSE All-Share Index. FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where UK Small Outperformed UK Market
Rolling Time Periods 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years
Number of Periods 647 623 599 539 479 419 299 179
Periods UK Small > UK Market 425 435 440 417 376 323 298 179
UK Small vs. UK MarketMonthly: March 1955-December 2009
5350.3
62%71% 75%
90%96% 100% 100% 100%
Source: UK One-Month T-Bills provided by Datastream; prior to January 1975, UK Three-Month T-Bills. UK Market is the FTSE All-Share Index. FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where UK Market Outperformed UK One-Month T-Bills
Rolling Time Periods 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years
Number of Periods 648 624 600 540 480 420 300 180
Periods UK Market > UK One-Month T-Bills 403 440 451 486 461 420 300 180
UK One-Month T-Bills vs. UK MarketMonthly: February 1955-December 2009
5360.3
Subsequent PeriodJanuary 1985-December 1989 January 1990-December 1994
Fund Name Rank Quartile RankAverage Annual
Total Return Rank Quartile RankAverage Annual
Total Return
Ignis Balanced Growth Inc 1 1 37.70 38 3 7.71Fidelity Special Situations 2 1 33.05 50 3 6.21M&G Recovery A Acc 3 1 28.61 13 1 10.79Premier UK Thematic A 4 1 23.90 5 1 12.28Premier Castlefield UK Alpha General Acc 5 1 23.40 66 4 2.58Fidelity Growth + Income 6 1 22.79 61 4 4.80Allianz RCM UK Equity C 7 1 22.27 25 2 8.61Aviva Investors UK Income & Gr SC1 8 1 22.21 31 2 8.01Family Charities Ethical Tr Inc 9 1 21.71 14 1 10.41CF Canlife Growth 10 2 20.68 36 3 7.83Schroder UK Equity Inc 11 2 20.01 9 1 11.44F&C Stewardship Growth 1 Inc 12 2 19.90 44 3 6.59TU British Trust Inc 13 2 19.72 28 2 8.57L&G (Barclays) 500 Inc 14 2 19.03 39 3 7.08Reliance British Life A/I 15 2 18.94 42 3 6.74SLTM UK Equity General Inc 16 2 18.90 32 2 8.01M&G UK Select A Acc 17 2 18.81 12 1 10.81Scottish Mutual UK Equity Acc 18 2 18.77 54 4 5.73Scottish Widows UK Select Gr C 19 3 18.73 60 4 4.83Henderson UK Equity A 20 3 18.56 46 3 6.31SWIP UK Advantage A Inc 21 3 18.09 30 2 8.08Santander N&P UK Growth 22 3 17.95 51 4 6.18M&G UK Growth A Acc 23 3 17.87 29 2 8.53Lincoln Growth Trust 24 3 17.36 37 3 7.79Aviva Investors UK Equity SC1 25 3 17.09 1 1 18.84Threadneedle UK Overseas Earnings IN Inc 26 3 16.77 40 3 7.00Pru UK Growth Trust Inc A 27 3 16.50 63 4 4.07CF Canlife General Inc 28 4 16.18 49 3 6.24Threadneedle UK Inst Inst Net GBP 29 4 16.02 20 2 9.07SWIP UK Opportunities A 30 4 15.46 59 4 5.21Top 30 Funds Average Return 20.57 7.88All Funds Average Return 19.70 7.99FTSE All-Share Index 20.22 9.68Number of Funds 35 68Number of Top 30 Funds > FTSE All-Share Index 10 6Number of All Funds > FTSE All Share Index 10 16
Do Winners Repeat?Subsequent Performance of Top Thirty FundsFive-Year Period: January 1985-December 1989
5370.3
Source: Morningstar Direct (IMA UK All Companies sector, only funds with five year history used, in GBP, net returns).Source and copyright ©1996-2008 Morningstar Limited. All rights therein are reserved, (http://www.funds.morningstar.com).This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Subsequent Period
January 1990-December 1994 January 1995-December 1999
Fund Name Rank Quartile Rank
Average Annual
Total Return Rank Quartile RankAverage Annual
Total Return
Aviva Investors UK Equity SC1 1 1 18.84 2 1 31.07
Artemis Capital 2 1 15.52 4 1 28.89
IP UK Growth Acc 3 1 13.80 77 4 16.08
Newton Income GBP 4 1 13.58 31 2 20.38
Fidelity UK Growth 6 1 12.28 32 2 20.34
Premier UK Thematic A 5 1 12.28 59 3 17.98
Martin Currie IF UK Growth A 7 1 11.96 78 4 15.98
Investec UK Special Situations A Acc Net 8 1 11.88 69 4 16.99
Schroder UK Equity Inc 9 1 11.44 36 2 19.85
Old Mutual UK Select Eq Acc 10 1 11.15 21 1 21.76
CIS UK Growth 11 1 10.84 27 2 21.09
M&G UK Select A Acc 12 1 10.81 84 4 12.57
M&G Recovery A Acc 13 1 10.79 81 4 13.89
Family Charities Ethical Tr Inc 14 1 10.41 12 1 23.41
Jupiter UK Growth fund 15 1 10.16 11 1 23.56
NFU UK Growth A 16 1 9.78 50 3 19.19
Aviva Investors UK Idx Tracking SC1 17 1 9.63 39 2 19.66
UBS UK Equity Exempt 18 2 9.63 87 4 –
F&C FTSE All-Share Tracker 1 Inc 19 2 9.10 34 2 20.16
Threadneedle UK Inst Inst Net GBP 20 2 9.07 49 3 19.29
Standard Life UK Equity Growth R 21 2 8.89 19 1 22.43
Thornhill Cap Trust 22 2 8.68 18 1 22.44
Premier Alpha Growth A 23 2 8.66 41 2 19.64
Investec UK Blue Chip A Acc Net 24 2 8.62 60 3 17.91
Allianz RCM UK Equity C 25 2 8.61 10 1 23.74
Royal London UK Growth 26 2 8.61 13 1 23.22
Insight Inv UK Discretionary A 27 2 8.58 14 1 23.04
TU British Trust Inc 28 2 8.57 38 2 19.69
M&G UK Growth A Acc 29 2 8.53 53 3 18.86
SWIP UK Advantage A Inc 30 2 8.08 44 2 19.58
Top 30 Funds Average Return 10.63 20.44
All Funds Average Return 7.99 19.79
FTSE All-Share Index 9.68 20.32
Number of Funds 68 86
Number of Top 30 Funds > FTSE All Share Index 16 13
Number of All Funds > FTSE All Share Index 16 32
Do Winners Repeat?Subsequent Performance of Top Thirty FundsFive-Year Period: January 1990-December 1994
5370.3
Source: Morningstar Direct (IMA UK All Companies sector, only funds with five year history used, in GBP, net returns).Source and copyright ©1996-2008 Morningstar Limited. All rights therein are reserved, (http://www.funds.morningstar.com).This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Subsequent Period
January 1995-December 1999 January 2000-December 2004
Fund Name Rank Quartile RankAverage Annual
Total Return Rank Quartile RankAverage Annual
Total Return
Jupiter UK Alpha 1 1 33.21 108 3 -4.32
Aviva Investors UK Equity SC1 2 1 31.07 83 3 -3.41
Allianz RCM UK Mid Cap A 3 1 29.86 134 4 -5.24
Artemis Capital 4 1 28.89 29 1 0.21
Allianz RCM UK Growth A 5 1 26.45 159 4 -6.67
Liontrust First Growth 6 1 25.37 93 3 -3.77
Family Asset Trust 7 1 25.04 132 4 -5.17
Sovereign Ethical Inc 8 1 24.83 105 3 -4.27
New Star UK Strategic Capital 9 1 23.99 32 1 -0.11
Allianz RCM UK Equity C 10 1 23.74 137 4 -5.27
Jupiter UK Growth fund 11 1 23.56 25 1 0.53
Family Charities Ethical Tr Inc 12 1 23.41 155 4 -6.53
Royal London UK Growth 13 1 23.22 118 3 -4.66
Insight Inv UK Discretionary A 14 1 23.04 53 2 -1.98
Baring UK Growth 15 1 22.89 142 4 -5.82
JPMorgan Premier Equity Growth A Acc 16 1 22.68 76 2 -3.09
Aviva Investors UK Growth SC1 Acc 17 1 22.57 113 3 -4.42
Thornhill Cap Trust 18 1 22.44 130 4 -5.11
Standard Life UK Equity Growth R 19 1 22.43 63 2 -2.45
Smith & Williamson UK Equity Gr Trust 20 1 21.92 146 4 -5.91
Old Mutual UK Select Eq Acc 21 1 21.76 124 4 -4.82
BlackRock UK Special Situations A Acc 22 1 21.38 9 1 5.93
Rensburg UK Blue Chip Growth 23 2 21.36 36 1 -0.46
Cavendish Opportunities Retail 25 2 21.21 7 1 7.74
F&C UK Equity 1 24 2 21.21 87 3 -3.47
Aberdeen UK Opportunities A Inc 26 2 21.18 152 4 -6.13
CIS UK Growth 27 2 21.09 100 3 -4.04
Ignis Balanced Growth Inc 28 2 20.99 131 4 -5.16
Fidelity Special Situations 29 2 20.66 4 1 13.41
Fidelity Growth + Income 30 2 20.42 33 1 -0.13
Top 30 Funds Average Return 23.73 -2.49
All Funds Average Return 19.79 -2.35
FTSE All-Share Return 20.32 -2.96
Number of Funds 86 162
Number of Top 30 Funds > FTSE All-Share 30 10
Number of All funds > FTSE All share 32 71
Do Winners Repeat?Subsequent Performance of Top Thirty FundsFive-Year Period: January 1995-December 1999
Source: Morningstar Direct (IMA UK All Companies sector, only funds with five year history used, in GBP, net returns).Source and copyright ©1996-2008 Morningstar Limited. All rights therein are reserved, (http://www.funds.morningstar.com).This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5370.3
5370.3
Subsequent PeriodJanuary 2000-December 2004 January 2005-December 2009
Fund Name Rank Quartile RankAverage Annual
Total Return Rank Quartile RankAverage Annual
Total Return
Rathbone Recovery Fd Acc 1 1 16.68 225 4 -7.12
GAM UK Diversified Acc 2 1 14.16 118 3 6.45
Saracen Growth Beta 3 1 13.66 36 1 9.1
Fidelity Special Situations 4 1 13.41 14 1 10.31
Schroder UK Mid 250 Acc 5 1 10.52 59 2 8.17
IP UK Growth Acc 6 1 7.85 170 4 5.3
Cavendish Opportunities Retail 7 1 7.74 210 4 3.61
MFM Bowland 8 1 6.27 169 3 5.32
BlackRock UK Special Situations A Acc 9 1 5.93 21 1 9.88
Investec UK Special Situations A Acc Net 10 1 5.92 29 1 9.5
Artemis UK Growth fund 11 1 4.93 182 4 4.81
CF Walker Crips Uk Growth Inc 12 1 3.7 8 1 10.8
Rensburg UK Mid Cap Growth 13 1 2.52 1 1 15.47
HSBC FTSE 250 Index Retail Acc 14 1 1.99 22 1 9.87
BlackRock UK A Acc 15 1 1.97 56 1 8.29
Ecclesiastical UK Equity Growth A 16 1 1.75 151 3 5.89
Lazard UK Alpha Retail Inc 17 1 1.48 146 3 5.95
Mirabaud Mir GB Income 18 1 1.22 66 2 7.91
Insight Inv UK Dynamic Mgd A 19 1 1.15 140 3 6.04
Fidelity UK Aggressive 20 1 1.14 39 1 9.06
Ecclesiastical Amity UK A 21 1 1.05 162 3 5.46
M&G Recovery A Acc 22 1 0.86 5 1 12.35
GLG UK Growth Instl 23 1 0.85 205 4 3.93
Newton Income GBP 24 1 0.81 62 2 8.05
Jupiter UK Growth fund 25 1 0.53 42 1 8.98
Jupiter Environmental Income Acc 26 1 0.49 150 3 5.9
Investec UK Alpha A Acc Net 27 1 0.39 78 2 7.34
HSBC UK Growth & Income Retail Acc 28 1 0.26 155 3 5.73
Artemis Capital 29 1 0.21 187 4 4.62
Martin Currie IF UK Growth A 30 1 0 203 4 4.1
Top 30 Funds Average Return 4.31 7.04All Funds Average Return -2.35 6.70FTSE All-Share Return -2.96 6.47Number of Funds 162 225Number of Top 30 Funds > FTSE All-Share 30 15Number of All funds > FTSE All share 71 117
Do Winners Repeat?Subsequent Performance of Top Thirty FundsFive-Year Period: January 2000-December 2004
Source: Morningstar Direct (IMA UK All Companies sector, only funds with five year history used, in GBP, net returns).Source and copyright ©1996-2008 Morningstar Limited. All rights therein are reserved, (http://www.funds.morningstar.com).This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Bull and Bear MarketsFTSE All-Share Index (GBP)February 1955-March 2010
Average Duration:
Bull Market: 23 Months
Bear Market: 10 Months
FTSE data published with the permission of FTSE. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market: (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points that are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market
6 mos.14%
7 mos.29%
38 months172%
26 mos.38%
12 mos.25%
27 months122%
23 months103%
6 months126%
11 mos.98%
14 mos.54%
20 mos.61%
31 months120%
40 months191%
25 mos.67%
29 months
57 months135%
29 months-43%
4 months-16%
23 months43%
47 months123%
5 months-15%
3 mos.-15%
9 mos.-17%
2 mos.-34%
1 mos.-10%1 mos.
-16%
8 mos.-14%
5 mos.-12%
9 mos.-27%
31 mos.-66%
16 mos.-30%
4 mos.-18%
9 mos.-11%15 mos.
-22%
8 mos.-21%
16 mos.-18%
20 mos.48%
17 mos.68%
5380.4
6 mos.43%
2 mos.-13%
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
March 2010-7%
Feb 2009-41%
Bull and Bear MarketsMSCI Europe Index, Net Dividends (DEM/EUR)Monthly Returns: January 1970-March 2010
Average Duration:
Bull Market: 31 Months
Bear Market: 12 Months
MSCI Europe Index: 1970-1998, denominated in deutsche marks; 1999-present, denominated in euros. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2008, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market: (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points that are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market
13 months59%
9 months-28%
5 months-15%
27 months38%
54 months87%
4 months19%
16 mos.59%
5 months-18%
21 months70%
2 months-31%
40 months188%
23 months71%
50 months146%
2 months-21%
2 mos.-11% 14 months
-19%3 mos.-22%
20 mos.35%8 mos.
14%
28 months-50%
72 months268%
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
31 months-53%
34 months
5380.4
March 2010-28%
Feb 2009-54%
Bull and Bear MarketsMCSI World Index, Net Dividends (USD)Monthly Returns: January 1970-March 2010
Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market
Average Duration:
Bull Market: 36 Months
Bear Market: 11 Months
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
9 mos.44%
6 months-19%
33 months75%
18 months-41%
53 months72%
3 mos.-11%
8 mos.36%
19 mos.56%
20 mos.60%
1 mos.-11%
37 months214%
20 months-19%
25 months50%
4 months-10% 3 months
-20%
93 months193%
9 months-24%
61 months149%
29 months
2 mos.-14%
30 months-47%
MSCI data copyright MSCI 2008, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market: (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5380.4
March 2010-25%
Feb 2009-54%
5. Investment Considerations
5400.2
I. Investment Considerations
II. Equity Fund Expenses
III. Fees Matter
IV. The Limits of Fund Rating Services
Investment Considerations 5410.1
• Reduce expenses.
• Diversify systematically.
• Minimise taxes and turnover.
• Think long term.
• Apply discipline.
• Hold low-cost funds.
• Maintain asset allocation.
Equity Fund Expenses
1.61%
0.90%0.57%
1.65%
0.98%
0.67%
“After costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will be less than the return on the average passively managed dollar for any time period.”
—William F. Sharpe, 1990 Nobel Laureate
William F. Sharpe, “The Arithmetic of Active Management,” Financial Analysts Journal 47, no. 1 (January/February 1991): 7-9.Data source: Lipper UK Fund Charges, January 2010; Dimensional OEIC TERs per Report and Accounts, December 2009, audited; Dimensional UCIT TERs per Report and Accounts, November 2009, audited.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
UK Equity
UK Equity Fund Expense Ratios Global Equity Fund Expense Ratios
UK IndexTracking Equity
DimensionalUK Equity
Global Equity Global IndexTracking Equity
DimensionalInternational Equity
5420.3
Fees Matter
£4,983,951
£3,745,318
£2,806,794
£ 1,000,000
£2,000,000
£3,000,000
£4,000,000
£5,000,000
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years
Time
1% Fee
2% Fee
3% Fee
Bri
tis
h P
ou
nd
s
Assumed 6.5% Annualised Return over 30 Years
• Fees matter.
• Over long time periods, high management fees and related expenses can be a significant drag on wealth creation.
• Passive investments generally maintain lower fees than the average actively managed investment by minimising trading costs and eliminating the costs of researching stocks.
For illustrative purposes only.
5430.1
Fund A Fund B Fund C Fund D
Morningstar (Dec 2000)
Forbes (Dec 2000) C A A+ D
US News & World Report (Dec 2000) 34 50 10 93
Wall Street Journal (Jan 2001) E C A B
BusinessWeek (Jan 2001) A No Rating B+ C
Funds A, B, C and D are actual funds. They are not identified because the purpose of this illustration is to emphasise that ratings, by themselves, do not provide enough information to make a sound investment decision.
Morningstar: Five stars is highest rating; one star is lowest rating.US News & World Report: 100 is highest rating; 1 is lowest rating.
The Limits of Fund Rating Services 5440.1
6. Investment Theory
5500.1
I. Innovations in Finance
II. Fixed Interest Investing
Innovations in Finance
The Birth of Index Funds
John McQuown,Wells Fargo Bank, 1971;Rex Sinquefield,American National Bank, 1973
Banks develop the first passive S&P 500 Index funds.
Efficient Markets Hypothesis
Eugene F. Fama,University of Chicago
Extensive research on stock price patterns.
Develops Efficient Markets Hypothesis, which asserts that prices reflect values and information accurately and quickly. It is difficult if not impossible to capture returns in excess of market returns without taking greater than market levels of risk.
Investors cannot identify superior stocks using fundamental information or price patterns.
Single-Factor Asset Pricing Risk/Return Model
William SharpeNobel Prize in Economics, 1990
Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theoretical model defines risk as volatility relative to market.
A stock’s cost of capital (the investor’s expected return) is proportional to the stock’s risk relative to the entire stock universe.
Theoretical model for evaluating the risk and expected return of securities and portfolios.
The Role of Stocks
James TobinNobel Prize in Economics, 1981
Separation Theorem:1. Form portfolio of risky assets.2. Temper risk by lending and borrowing.
Shifts focus from security selection to portfolio structure.
“Liquidity Preference as Behavior Toward Risk,” Review of Economic Studies, February 1958.
Conventional Wisdom circa 1950
“Once you attain competency, diversification is undesirable. One or two, or at most three or four, securities should be bought. Competent investors will never be satisfied beating the averages by a few small percentage points.”
Gerald M. Loeb, The Battle for Investment Survival, 1935
Analyse securities one by one. Focus on picking winners. Concentrate holdings to maximise returns.
Broad diversification is considered undesirable.
Diversification and Portfolio Risk
Harry MarkowitzNobel Prize in Economics, 1990
Diversification reduces risk.
Assets evaluated not by individual characteristics but by their effect on a portfolio. An optimal portfolio can be constructed to maximise return for a given standard deviation.
Investments and Capital Structure
Merton Miller and Franco ModiglianiNobel Prizes in Economics,1990 and 1985
Theorem relating corporate finance to returns.
A firm’s value is unrelated to its dividend policy.
Dividend policy is an unreliable guide for stock selection.
Behaviour of Securities Prices
Paul Samuelson, MITNobel Prize in Economics, 1970
Market prices are the best estimates of value.
Price changes follow random patterns. Future share prices are unpredictable.
“Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly,” Industrial Management Review, Spring 1965.
First Major Study of Manager Performance
Michael Jensen, 1965A.G. Becker Corporation, 1968
First studies of mutual funds (Jensen) and of institutional plans (A.G. Becker Corp.) indicate active managers underperform indices.
Becker Corp. gives rise to consulting industry with creation of “Green Book” performance tables comparing results to benchmarks.
Options Pricing Model
Fischer Black, University of Chicago;Myron Scholes, University of Chicago;Robert Merton, Harvard UniversityNobel Prize in Economics, 1997
The development of the Options Pricing Model allows new ways to segment, quantify and manage risk.
The model spurs the development of a market for alternative investments.
5510.2
1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
Innovations in Finance
Nobel Prize Recognises Modern Finance
Economists who shaped the way we invest are recognised, emphasising the role of science in finance.
William Sharpe for the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
Harry Markowitz for portfolio theory.
Merton Miller for work on the effect of firms’ capital structure and dividend policy on their prices.
Variable Maturity Strategy Implemented
Eugene F. Fama
With no prediction of interest rates, Eugene Fama develops a method of shifting maturities that identifies optimal positions on the fixed interest yield curve.
“The Information in the Term Structure,” Journal of Financial Economics 13, no. 4 (December 1984): 509-28.
Multifactor Asset Pricing Model and Value Effect
Eugene Fama and Kenneth French,University of Chicago
Improves on the single-factor asset pricing model (CAPM).
Identifies market, size, and “value” factors in returns.
Develops the three-factor asset pricing model, an invaluable asset allocation and portfolio analysis tool.
“Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds,” Journal of Financial Economics 33, no. 1 (February 1993): 3-56.
Database of Securities Prices since 1926
Roger Ibbotson andRex Sinquefield,Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation
An extensive returns database for multiple asset classes is first developed and will become one of the most widely used investment databases.
The first extensive, empirical basis for making asset allocation decisions changes the way investors build portfolios.
A Major Plan First Commits to Indexing
New York Telephone Companyinvests $40 million in an S&P 500Index fund.
The first major plan to index.
Helps launch the era of indexed investing.
“Fund spokesmen are quick to point out you can’t buy the market averages. It’s time the public could.”
Burton G. Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 1973 ed.
International Size Effect
Steven L. Heston, K. Geert Rouwenhorst and Roberto E. Wessels
Find evidence of higher average returns to small companies in twelve international markets.
“The Structure of International Stock Returns and the Integration of Capital Markets,” Journal of Empirical Finance 2, no. 3 (September 1995): 173-97.
The Size Effect
Rolf Banz, University of Chicago
Analyzed NYSE stocks,1926-1975.
Finds that, in the long term, small companies have higher expected returns than large companies and behave differently.
Integrated Equity
Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French
Increasing exposure to small and value companies relative to their market weights and integrating the portfolio across the full range of securities may reduce the turnover and transaction costs normally associated with forming an asset allocation from multiple components.
“Migration” CRSP Working Paper No. 614, February 2007).
5510.2
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fixed Interest Investing
One aspect of fixed interest’s role in a portfolio is to reduce volatility. This may be accomplished by employing:
• Shorter maturities with lower equity correlations.
• High-quality issues.
• A global approach that hedges all currencies.
5520.1
7. Limitations of Indexing
5600.1
I. Tracking an Index Can Be Costly
II. The Effect of Index Reconstitution on Stock Prices
Tracking an Index Can Be Costly
• Tracking an index may result in significant trading costs.
• Index replication requires executing with pre-specified transactions, stocks, amounts and trade dates.
• Timing lag between reconstitution announcement and effective date enables non-indexers to buy additions and sell deletions before tracking-sensitive investors, when prices are often more attractive.
5610.1
The Effect of Index Reconstitution on Stock Prices
For illustrative purposes only.
S&P 500 data source: Anthony Lynch and Richard Mendenhall, “New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index,” Journal of Business 70, no. 3 (July 1997): 351-83. MSCI EAFE Index data provided by Rajesh Chakrabarti, Wei Huang, Narayanan Jayaraman and Jinsoo Lee, “Price and Volume Effects of Changes in MSCI Indices: Nature and Causes,” Journal of Banking and Finance 29, no. 5 (May 2005): 1237-64.FTSE 100 Index data provided by Brian Moore, “The Impact of Changes in the FTSE 100 Index.”
FTSE-100Index
S&P 500 Index
MSCI EAFE Index
One-Day Return after Announcement (%) 0.3 3.2 3.4
Run-Up to Effective Date (%) 4.7 3.8 4.5
Decay after Effective Date (%) -2.4 -2.1 -2.6
Announcement Effective
Price
Time
• Stocks rise on announcement of inclusion.
• Index funds are forced to buy high on effective date.
• Buying and selling to track index changes reduces tracking error but generates transaction costs.
5620.1
This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., registered address 7 Down Street, London W1J 7AJ, Company Number 02569601, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority - Firm Reference No.150100. It is provided for information purposes and intended for your use only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned. The information provided is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. to be reliable, but Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of this material. This material is directed exclusively at persons who are experienced or existing investors in the products described in this document, who are professional customers as defined by the rules of the Financial Services Authority or are otherwise eligible under these rules. It is not intended for retail customers and such persons should not rely on this material. Moreover, any investment or service to which this material may relate, will not be made available to such retail customers. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Client Presentation
5700.1
The Basic Institutional PortfolioMonthly: 1988-2009Passively InvestedPortfolio 1
AnnualisedCompound Return (%)
Annualised Standard
Deviation (%)
Portfolio 1 9.36 11.60
Citigroup UK Govt.Bond Index
1-30+ Years (hedged)
FTSE All-Share
Index
Portfolio 1 40% 60%
On average, portfolios of institutional investors are about 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
Data sourced internally at Dimensional Fund Advisors from Dimensional’s Returns Program 2.0. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5710.3
Does It Pay to Extend Maturities?1900-2000
• Not all investors define risk as standard deviation. Some investors may seek to hedge long-term bonds.
• Historically, longer maturity instruments have higher standard deviations and have not provided consistently greater returns.
UK Bills US BondsUK Bonds
US Bills
US Equities UK Equities
15
10
5
0
5 10 15 20 25
Standard Deviation (%)
5720.1
Bills Bonds Equities
UK US UK US UK US
Annualised Compound Returns (%) 5.10 4.00 6.00 5.30 11.60 11.60
Annualised Standard Deviation (%) 3.80 2.80 12.00 8.20 21.70 19.90
Dimson, Elroy, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, Millennium Book II: 101 Years of Investment Returns (ABN AMRO and London Business School, 2001). This publication defines the data used for the above chart and matrix as follows: UK Bills are UK One-Month Treasury Bills (FTSE). UK Bonds are the ABN AMRO Bond Index. UK Equities are the ABN AMRO/LBS Equity Index. US Bills are commercial bills 1900-1918 and One-Month US Treasury Bills (Ibbotson) 1919-2000. US Bonds are government bonds 1900-1918, the Federal Reserve Bond Index 10-15 Years 1919-1925, Long-Term Government Bonds (Ibbotson) 1926-1998, and the JP Morgan US Government Bond Index 1999-2000. US Equities are Schwert’s Index Series 1900-1925, CRSP 1-10 Deciles Index 1926-1970, and the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index 1971-2000.
Ret
urn
(%
)
The Basic Institutional PortfolioMonthly: 1988-2009Portfolio 2
Annualised Compound Return (%)
Annualised Standard
Deviation (%)
Portfolio 1 9.36 11.60
Portfolio 2 9.77 11.34
Citigroup UK Govt.Bond Index
1-30+ Years (hedged)
FTSE All-Share
Index
Global Short-Dated
Bonds
Portfolio 1 40% 60%
Portfolio 2 60% 40%
Data sourced internally at Dimensional Fund Advisors from Dimensional’s Returns Program 2.0. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5730.3
Where Dimensional Invests: Developed Markets Emerging Markets Not Invested
In British pounds. Map reflects countries in the MSCI All Country World IMI Index, and MSCI Frontier Markets Index. Market cap data is free-float adjusted. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2010, all rights reserved. Many small nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. Dimensional makes case-by-case determinations about the suitability of investing in each emerging market, making considerations that include local market accessibility, government stability and property rights before making investments. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. 1. An example large cap stock provided for comparison.
United States 7,509
United Kingdom 1,528
Japan 1,504
Canada 745
France 736
Australia 600
Germany 558
Switzerland 519
China 405
Brazil 359
SCALETOP 20 NATIONS BY MARKET CAPITALIZATION (£ BILLIONS)
Spain 306
South Korea 292
Taiwan 287
Italy 243
Sweden 195
Netherlands 189
India 183
Hong Kong 166
South Africa 162
Russia 131
World Market Capitalisation£17.7 Trillion as at December 31, 2009
5735.3
A Diversified PortfolioMonthly: 1988-2009Portfolio 3
AnnualisedCompound Return (%)
Annualised Standard
Deviation (%)
Portfolio 1 9.36 11.60
Portfolio 2 9.77 11.34
Portfolio 3 10.16 12.44
Citigroup UK Govt.Bond Index
1-30+ Years (hedged)
FTSEAll-Share
Index
GlobalShort-Dated
Bonds
MSCI World ex UK Index
Emerging Markets
Companies
Portfolio 1 40% 60%
Portfolio 2 60% 40%
Portfolio 3 25% 40% 25% 10%
Data sourced internally at Dimensional Fund Advisors from Dimensional’s Returns Program. 2.0. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5750.3
Value stocks are above the 30th percentile in book-to-market ratio. Growth stocks are below the 70th percentile in book-to-market ratio.Simulations are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries. UK and Europe data provided by London Business School/StyleResearch.US value and growth data provided by Fama/French. This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Size and Value Effects Are Strong around the WorldAnnual Index DataPercent per Annum in £
15.81
12.0810.43
19.15
15.62
12.59 12.15
9.538.15
13.02
10.73
8.20
10.34 9.798.95
13.59
11.49
8.72
17.97
13.30
10.81
UK Large Value
UK Large
Market
UK Large
Growth
UK Small Value
UK Small
Market
UK Small
Growth
Europe Large Value
Europe Large
Market
Europe Large
Growth
Europe Small Value
Europe Small
Market
Europe Small
Growth
US Large Value
S&P 500
Index
US Large
Growth
US Small Value
CRSP 6-10 Index
US Small
Growth
Emg. Markets
Value
Emg. Markets “Market”
Emg. Markets Growth
UK LargeCapitalisation Stocks
(£) 1956-2009
UK SmallCapitalisation Stocks
(£) 1956-2009
Europe ex UK Large Capitalisation
Stocks (€) 1981-2009
Europe ex UK Small Capitalisation Stocks
(€) 1981-2009
US Large Capitalisation Stocks
($) 1927-2009
US Small Capitalisation Stocks
($) 1927-2009
Emerging Markets Capitalisation Stocks
($) 1989-2009
32.08 28.60 26.29 31.81 30.34 30.83 27.22 23.29 25.76 26.10 24.80 27.51 27.17 20.63 22.06 35.30 31.09 34.20 43.04 37.29 35.70
Ann
ua
lised
C
omp
oun
d R
etu
rns
(%)
Standard Deviation (%)
5760.3
Data sourced internally at Dimensional Fund Advisors from Dimensional’s Returns Program 2.0.This material has been distributed by Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
A Diversified PortfolioMonthly: 1988-2009Portfolio 4
AnnualisedCompound Return (%)
Annualised Standard
Deviation (%)
Portfolio 1 9.36 11.60
Portfolio 2 9.77 11.34
Portfolio 3 10.16 12.44
Portfolio 4 10.74 13.04
Citigroup UK Govt.Bond Index
1-30+ Years (hedged)
FTSEAll-Share
Index
GlobalShort-Dated
Bonds
MSCI World ex UK Index
Emerging Markets
CompaniesUK Value
CompaniesUK Small
Companies
International Value
Companies
International Small
Companies
Portfolio 1 40% 60%
Portfolio 2 60% 40%
Portfolio 3 25% 40% 25% 10%
Portfolio 4 10% 40% 10% 10% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
5770.3