BRIEF UPDATE ON GLOBAL ACTIVITIES AND RISK...
Transcript of BRIEF UPDATE ON GLOBAL ACTIVITIES AND RISK...
March 5, 2017, New York
BRIEF UPDATE ON GLOBAL ACTIVITIES
AND RISK ASSESSMENT
3rd Inter-Agency Coordination Group Meeting
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Outline
� Overview of latest global activities
� Overall risk assessment
� Global timetable
� Analysis of GCL item overlap
� Assessment of extrapolation data
� 4th IACG meeting
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OVERVIEW OF LATEST GLOBAL
ACTIVITIES
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Governance Activities
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GOVERNING BOARD
– First meeting held on November 15, 2016
– Endorsed ICP governance framework, established the TAG, and
discussed preparations for the ICP 2017 cycle
TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP (TAG) AND TASK FORCES
– TAG members include 10 academics, practitioners and users
– First meeting scheduled for May 24, 2017 in Princeton, New Jersey
– TAG to discuss ICP research agenda and establish Task Forces
ICP REPORT TO 48TH UNSC
– Comprehensive update on the efforts undertaken at the global
and regional levels to complete interim activities, prepare for the
ICP 2017 cycle, and transform the ICP into a permanent program
Operational Activities
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FINALIZATION OF ICP 2017 OPERATIONAL MATERIALS
– Revised ICP classification, national accounts forms, global core lists
(GCL) and survey forms, and survey framework questionnaire
circulated (December 2016)
– Machinery and Equipment list & form to be finalized (April 2017)
SUPPORTING REGIONAL ACTIVITIES AND WORKSHOPS
– ICP-Africa Task Force meeting, Abidjan (November 2016)
– IC-Africa Workshop, Lusaka (January/February 2017)
– ICP-Asia Workshop, Bangkok (February 2017)
– ICP-Western Asia Workshop, Cairo (February 2017)
Research and Technical Activities
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SUB-NATIONAL PPPS
– International Conference on Sub-national PPPs, Real GDP and Living
Conditions Comparisons, Nanchang (October 2016)
– Workshop on sub-national PPPs in India, Delhi (February 2017)
PPPS AND POVERTY MEASUREMENT
– Workshop on Global Poverty and ICP/PPP (February 2017)
– Paper on “Poverty-Specific PPPs in Africa”
USES OF PPPS
– ICP Session at IAOS 2016 Conference, Abu Dhabi (December 2016)
– Paper on “Uses of Purchasing Power Parities to better inform policy
making and poverty measurement”
Knowledge Activities
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Video Tutorial on PLIs And Real
GDP Per Capital
Leaflet on PPP
Fundamentals
E-learning Course [End Of June 2017]
Outreach Activities
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Blog Post “What’s Next
For PPPs And The ICP”
Q4 2016 UpdateNew ICP Website
OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT
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Participation and Timetable Risks
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COUNTRY PARTICIPATION
– Dual participation
– Countries moving regions
– Pacific islands
– Afghanistan
– Iran
– Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
– Fragile countries [Yemen, Libya, etc.]
TIMETABLE
– Delayed start and tight schedule
– Survey timetable misalignment challenges for data validation and
finalization
Technical Risks
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QUALITY OF LINKING FACTORS
– Maintain good GCL overlap despite survey timetable misalignment
across regions
– Harmonize “perception of quality” across regions
CONSISTENCY WITH 2011
– Balancing needed improvements [ex: housing] vs. consistency
– Limit changes in survey coverage
– Assess impact of countries moving regions on results
AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF EXTRAPOLATORS
– Crucial for PPP time series
Openness, Outreach and Funding Risks
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OPENNESS
– Lack of openness could sink the ICP
– Need to lobby country to provide further details such as capital city
average prices, sub-national average prices or urban/rural
average prices
– Countries may require technical assistance on data management
OUTREACH
– Need to reach the “right” policy-makers/decision-makers in
countries
RESOURCES
– Lower funding levels than 2011
– Channeling funding to countries
– Shortage in human resources in some countries
GLOBAL TIMETABLE
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Survey Schedule for the ICP 2017
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Acronyms: Fast evolving technology (FET); House and Garden, incl. FET (HG); Transport, Restaurants and Hotels
(TRH); Services (SE); Furniture and Health (FH); Food, Drinks and Tobacco (FDT); Personal Appearance (PA)
Region / Survey2016 2017 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Household Consumption (incl. private health and education)
Africa ? ?
Asia
CIS
LAC ? ?
Western Asia FET
Eurostat-OECD HG TRH SE FH FDT PA
Survey Schedule for the ICP 2017
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Region / Survey2016 2017 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Housing (rentals and volume)
Africa
Asia R V
CIS
LAC R V
Western Asia R R V
Eurostat-OECD R V
Government
Africa
Asia
CIS
LAC
Western Asia
Eurostat-OECD
Acronyms: Housing rents (R); Housing volume (V)
Survey Schedule for the ICP 2017
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Region / Survey2016 2017 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Machinery and Equipment
Africa
Asia
CIS
LAC
Western Asia
Eurostat-OECD
Construction
Africa
Asia
CIS
LAC
Western Asia
Eurostat-OECD
Results Preparation and Publication
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Region / Survey2017 2018 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Interim Results
Asia (2015-2016)
CIS (2014)
Western Asia (2016)
Eurostat-OECD P P P
Global (2012-2016) P
ICP 2017 Cycle
Africa PR PR FR+P
Asia PR PR FR+P
CIS PR PR FR+P
LAC PR PR FR+P
Western Asia PR PR FR+P
Eurostat-OECD PR+P PR+P
Global PR PR FR+P
Acronyms: Preliminary Results (PR), Final Results (FR), Publication (P)
ANALYSIS OF GCL ITEM OVERLAP
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GCL Item Overlap for Linking
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REVIEW OF REGIONAL LISTS’ AS OF FEBRUARY 2017
– Household consumption, excluding housing and private education
– Global Core List (GCL) version circulate in Dec. (revised in Feb.)
– EUO: list from 2015-2017, WAS: 2016 list
# Number of… GCL AFR ASI CIS EUO LAC WAS
(0) Items - ~551 ~916 ~2000 ~2021 ~415 ~633
(1) GCL items 631 414 457 - 458 399 432
(2) “Stand-alone" GCL items 44 6 10 - 16 4 8
(3) “Not selected" GCL items 4 - - - - - -
(1) - (2) - (3) 582 407 447 - 442 395 424
4 “Not Selected" GCL items
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# BH code BH name Item code Item name Region
1 1101111 Rice 110111104 Jasmine rice, WKB -
2 1101191Food products
n.e.c.110119114
Hot sauce, TABASCO
Original Red Sauce -
3 1102121 Wine 110212102Red wine, European,
WKB-
4 1109511
Newspapers,
books and
Stationery
110951112Novel, paperback,
British classic-
44 “Stand-alone" GCL items (1)
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# BH code BH name Item code Item name Region
01 1101111 Rice 110111103Long grain rice, family pack, WKB
AFR
02 1101111 Rice 110111108 Brown rice, family pack, BL ASI
03 1101111 Rice 110111111Long-grain rice, UNCLE BEN'S ORIGINAL
WAS
04 1101113 Bread 110111306 Pita bread, BNR WAS
05 1101131Fresh, chilled or frozen fish and seafood
110113108 Cod (gadus morhua) EUO
06 1101132Preserved or processed fish and seafood
110113205 Dried shrimps, BNR AFR
07 1101143 Cheese and curd 110114306 Tofu, WKB ASI
08 1101161 Fresh or chilled fruit 110116104 Fresh grapefruit WAS
09 1101191 Food products n.e.c. 110119106 Curry powder, WKB ASI
10 1101191 Food products n.e.c. 110119111 Chili sauce, WKB ASI
11 1101211 Coffee, tea, and cocoa 110121104 Coffee, grounded, blend, WKB EUO
12 1101211 Coffee, tea, and cocoa 110121107 Black tea, BL AFR
13 1101211 Coffee, tea, and cocoa 110121108 Black tea, in bags, BL EUO
14 1101221Mineral waters, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable juices
110122106Carbonated drink, fruit flavoured, WKB
EUO
15 1101221Mineral waters, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable juices
110122107 Water, still, large bottle, BL EUO
44 “Stand-alone" GCL items (2)
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# BH code BH name Item code Item name Region
16 1102111 Spirits 110211104Liqueur, BAILEYS, Original Irish cream
EUO
17 1102121 Wine 110212105 Red wine, Australian, WKB ASI
18 1102121 Wine 110212106 White wine, South African, WKB AFR
19 1102121 Wine 110212107 Red wine, Chilean, WKB LAC
20 1103121 Garments 110312112 Women's summer pants, WKB-M LAC
21 1104311Maintenance and repair of the dwelling
110431104 Wall tiles, ceramic, WKB WAS
22 1104411 Water supply 110441104Water supply, other water sources
WAS
23 1105211 Household Textiles 110521109 Hand towel, WKB EUO
24 1105311Major household appliances whether electric or not
110531110Air conditioner, cooling and heating , split chassis, WKB-M
WAS
25 1105311Major household appliances whether electric or not
110531115Air conditioner, cooling, window, WKB-M
ASI
26 1105311Major household appliances whether electric or not
110531116Washing machine, frontloader, 7-8 kg, SAMSUNG
EUO
27 1105321Small electric household appliances
110532106 Table fan, BL ASI
44 “Stand-alone" GCL items (3)
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# BH code BH name Item code Item name Region
28 1105411Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils
110541108 Rolling pin, BL ASI
29 1105411Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils
110541109Cutlery set, 24 pieces, chrome steel, BL
WAS
30 1105521Small tools and miscellaneous accessories
110552105 Padlock, BL AFR
31 1105622 Household services 110562202Laundry, self-service (launderette, laundromat)
EUO
32 1107111 Motor cars 110711117Motor car, petrol engine, TOYOTA Camry 2.5L
WAS
33 1107111 Motor cars 110711118Motor car, petrol engine, FORD Mondeo 2.0 EcoBoost
LAC
34 1107111 Motor cars 110711121Motor car, petrol engine, VOLKSWAGEN Touareg 3.6 V6
ASI
35 1107111 Motor cars 110711122Motor car, diesel engine, HYUNDAI Tuscon 2.0 CRDi
ASI
36 1107311Passenger transport by railway
110731105Urban tram (rail) or tube, monthly ticket
EUO
37 1107321 Passenger transport by road 110732102 Urban (city) bus, monthly EUO
44 “Stand-alone" GCL items (4)
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# BH code BH name Item code Item name Region
38 1108311Telephone and telefax services
110831108Monthly mobile phone plan, 500 min. and 500 SMS
LAC
39 1109311Other recreational items and equipment
110931105 Construction toy, LEGO City EUO
40 1109311Other recreational items and equipment
110931106Portable video game console, NINTENDO 3DS XL/LL
EUO
41 1111111 Catering services 111111108 Beef steak, at restaurant AFR
42 1111111 Catering services 111111111Meat cubes on skewer, at basic eat-in place
EUO
43 1111111 Catering services 111111113Irish cream, BAILEYS Original, at bar
EUO
44 1112311 Jewellery, clocks and watches 111231101Wrist-watch, children's, SWATCH Flik Flak
EUO
Challenges: BHs with Potentially Weak Links
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After the exclusion of “stand-alone” and “not selected” items, all regions
have at least one GCL item per BH, but some BHs have only one GCL item
BH code BH nameTotal # of GCL
items
Regions with one
GCL item
1101113 Bread 6 WAS
1101123 Lamb, mutton and goat 4 EUO, LAC
1101125 Other meats and meat preparations 4 ASI
1101144 Egg and egg-based products 2 (!) AFR
1101172 Fresh or chilled potatoes and… 3 EUO
1101181 Sugar 2 (!) EUO
1102131 Beer 3 WAS
1104411 Water supply 3 ASI
1104511 Electricity 4 ASI
1104521 Gas 3 ASI
1105511 Major Tools and Equipment 2 (!) AFR, ASI
1105621 Domestic services 3 AFR, ASI
1105622 Household services 2 (!) All
1106221 Services of dentists 2 (!) EUO
1107131 Bicycles 3 WAS
1111211 Accommodation services 4 ASI
1112311 Jewelry, clocks and watches 5 EUO
Challenges: GCL Brand Types
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GCL BRAND TYPES AS AGREED AT THE 2ND IACG MEETING
– Well known Brand (WKB): Products with “brand-value”
– Brandless (BL): Products without “brand-value”
– Brand not Relevant (BNR): “Brand-value” concept does not apply
WELL KNOWN BRAND (WKB) BREAK-DOWN FOR 7 BHS
– WKB-High (no items on GCL) / WKB-Medium / WKB-Low
– 7 BHs: Clothing materials; Garments; Shoes; Major household
appliances; Small household appliances; Glassware and tableware;
Major Tools and equipment
– Aims to achieve better comparability across countries
– No change vs. ICP 2011
– Countries have raised concerns on operational feasibility of the WKB
breakdown
Clarifications on Electricity Items
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February 2017 GCL update: SPD revision and addition of equivalent monthly consumption targets
ASSESSMENT OF EXTRAPOLATION DATA
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Assessment of Extrapolation Data
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EXTRAPOLATION DATABASE
– Extrapolation data is crucial to allow us to continue to test, fine-
tune and ultimately enable the PPP time series approach
– Approach requires detailed time-series data for expenditures,
deflators, CPIs, population and exchange rate
• Potential addition: producer price indices
– Biannual submission schedule agreed at the 2nd IACG meeting
SUBMISSIONS: STATUS AND COMPLETENESS
– All six regions (AFR, ASI, CIS, EUO, LAC, WAS) have reported or
provided updated extrapolation data
– Sparse coverage of detailed time-series data for many countries
Expenditures: GDP and Main Aggregates
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GDP Year (2005-2016) / # of Country Submissions
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 53 53 53 54 54 54 54 54 54 50 25 0
Asia and the Pacific (23) 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 6
CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0
Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 2
Latin America (17+1) 15 15 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0 0
The Caribbean (22+1) 15 16 16 16 16 15 16 16 13 12 0 0
Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0
Main Aggregates (7) Year (2005-2016) / # of Complete Country Submissions
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Asia and the Pacific (23) 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 4
CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 6 0
Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 42 42 42 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 37 2
Latin America (17+1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
The Caribbean (22+1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0
+ Category level for HHC and GFCF
Deflators: GDP and Main Aggregates
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GDP Year (2005-2016) / # of Country Submissions
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 50 50 51 52 53 53 53 53 53 48 24 0
Asia and the Pacific (23) 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 9 7
CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 7 0
Latin America (17+1) 15 15 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0 0
The Caribbean (22+1) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0
Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0
Main Aggregates (5) Year (2005-2016) / # of Complete Country Submissions
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Asia and the Pacific (23) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 3
CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
Eurostat-OECD (47) 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 38 5 0
Latin America (17+1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
The Caribbean (22+1) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
Western Asia (12) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 0 0 0
+ Category level for HHC and GFCF
CPIs: General and COICOP-12
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General Year (2005-2016) / # of Country Submissions
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 49 50 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 48 0
Asia and the Pacific (23) 12 11 12 13 13 13 16 16 16 16 16 15
CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43
Latin America (17+1) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0 0
The Caribbean (22+1) 17 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 21 0 0
Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0
COICOP-12 Year (2005-2016) / # of Complete Country Submissions
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 12 15 23 27 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 0
Asia and the Pacific (23) 10 11 12 12 12 11 13 13 15 15 15 13
CIS (8+1) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 0
Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 37 38 39 39 39 41 41 41 41 41 40 40
Latin America (17+1) 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 0 0
The Caribbean (22+1) 17 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 21 0 0
Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0
CPIs: COICOP-12 (Partial Submissions)
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COICOP-12 Year (2005-2016) / # of Countries Without data
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 9 54
Asia and the Pacific (23) 10 10 9 8 8 8 4 4 3 3 3 6
CIS (8+1) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Latin America (17+1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 18 18
The Caribbean (22+1) 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 23 23
Western Asia (12) 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 12
COICOP-12 Year (2005-2016) / # of Partial Country Submissions
Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16
Africa (50+4) 34 32 25 22 19 19 19 19 19 20 17 0
Asia and the Pacific (23) 3 2 2 3 3 4 6 6 5 5 5 4
CIS (8+1) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 0
Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Latin America (17+1) 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 0 0
The Caribbean (22+1) 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 7 7 7 0 0
Western Asia (12) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4TH IACG MEETING
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Planning the 4th IACG Meeting
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PROPOSED TIMING AND LOCATION
– 4th week of October 2017
– Washington, DC
PROPOSED FORMAT AND AGENDA
– Part 1: IACG agencies
• Update on progress, globally and regionally
• Validation of GCL prices across regions, where available
• Risk assessment and mitigation measures
– Part 2: IACG agencies + Selected countries
• Review country perception of the quality of the GCL items
Planning the 4th IACG Meeting
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POSSIBLE CRITERIA FOR SELECTING COUNTRIES
– Countries on the Governing Board
– Countries in the FOC Group
– Base countries
– Large countries
– Dual participation countries
– Group Leaders in EU
TARGET NUMBER OF COUNTRIES: 15-20
THANK YOU
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